The early money came in on Iowa, and the line currently seems to be hovering between 2 and 2 1/2 at most books. However, I think it will end up in the range of 3 to 3 1/2.
As you said, it comes down to homefield. Plus the zebras. I go in to these kind of marquis away games wondering not if we're going to get screwed by the Big Suck refs but rather when and how it's going to happen.
Then again, we're not the only ones. Look at the Maryland-Iowa game. The stripe shirts took over in the first half, and the pathetic Terrapins never recovered.
On the other hand, the incompetence and crookedness extend far beyond the Big Suck. Look what happened to Oregon yesterday. Leave it to the Pac-10 to screw over its best shot at a playoff spot.