Recruiting disparity OSU vs. PSU

[tboyer]

Just a little reminder, if this game were decided by raw talent as rated coming out of high school, it wouldn't be close.

If you take the raw Rivals data for 2013-16, Ohio State landed 5 5-stars, 60 four-stars, 33 3-stars.

Penn State during the same period signed one 5 star (Hack), 26 four stars, 53 3-stars.

So ... it's fair to say Ohio State signed roughly twice as many of the top tier national-caliber recruits as PSU did for the recruiting period that really makes up these two rosters.

However there are major mitigating factors of course..

Because of early NFL entry, lots of those Ohio State 5 stars and 4 stars are no longer on their roster. It gives PSU a significant experience edge because they've got some three year and four year starters going against 1st and 2nd year players on the OSU side. To paraphrase Moorhead, experience beats talent until talent gets experience. Hopefully this game is more of an example of the former than the latter.

The PSU roster also reflects an awful lot of 3 stars who have grown into outstanding players -- speaks to the quality of player development at PSU and also the fact that a lot of these guys were forced to play early because of sanctions.

Anyway my point is that PSU is going into the Shoe athletically competitive, which hasn't happened that often in the Big Ten era. They don't have to steal this game; they can win it outright.

But if Franklin can continue the current trajectory for recruiting, if the 2018 class is a harbinger, the raw talent disparity with Ohio State will be a lot less than what we're used to as PSU fans.

 

[demlion]

Just a little reminder, if this game were decided by raw talent as rated coming out of high school, it wouldn't be close.

If you take the raw Rivals data for 2013-16, Ohio State landed 5 5-stars, 60 four-stars, 33 3-stars.

Penn State during the same period signed one 5 star (Hack), 26 four stars, 53 3-stars.

So ... it's fair to say Ohio State signed roughly twice as many of the top tier national-caliber recruits as PSU did for the recruiting period that really makes up these two rosters.

However there are major mitigating factors of course..

Because of early NFL entry, lots of those Ohio State 5 stars and 4 stars are no longer on their roster. It gives PSU a significant experience edge because they've got some three year and four year starters going against 1st and 2nd year players on the OSU side. To paraphrase Moorhead, experience beats talent until talent gets experience. Hopefully this game is more of an example of the former than the latter.

The PSU roster also reflects an awful lot of 3 stars who have grown into outstanding players -- speaks to the quality of player development at PSU and also the fact that a lot of these guys were forced to play early because of sanctions.

Anyway my point is that PSU is going into the Shoe athletically competitive, which hasn't happened that often in the Big Ten era. They don't have to steal this game; they can win it outright.

But if Franklin can continue the current trajectory for recruiting, if the 2018 class is a harbinger, the raw talent disparity with Ohio State will be a lot less than what we're used to as PSU fans.

Stars are fraud. How many of those 5 stars BECAME 5 stars after OSU began recruiting them?

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Stars are fraud. How many of those 5 stars BECAME 5 stars after OSU began recruiting them?

Precisely, Pay rivals enough times for their camps and the affiliations with Adam Friedman and certain programs mitigate the rankings add that some guys are physically mature at 17 while others mature physically at 19 or 20 and the rankings are pure pretty BS.... Take a players offer list... that is more significant than stars at age 17.... Shariff Miller is a fine example of this. Suburban white guys that never played, never coached and have a strong affiliation with a University ranking 16 and 17 year olds.... many of whom they have never seen play.... ya, that is a system.... kinda like our health care is a system. Watch the game once they are 2-3 years in, then you might know who among them are 5 stars.

 

[Howie'81]

Just a little reminder, if this game were decided by raw talent as rated coming out of high school, it wouldn't be close.

If you take the raw Rivals data for 2013-16, Ohio State landed 5 5-stars, 60 four-stars, 33 3-stars.

Penn State during the same period signed one 5 star (Hack), 26 four stars, 53 3-stars.

So ... it's fair to say Ohio State signed roughly twice as many of the top tier national-caliber recruits as PSU did for the recruiting period that really makes up these two rosters.

However there are major mitigating factors of course..

Because of early NFL entry, lots of those Ohio State 5 stars and 4 stars are no longer on their roster. It gives PSU a significant experience edge because they've got some three year and four year starters going against 1st and 2nd year players on the OSU side. To paraphrase Moorhead, experience beats talent until talent gets experience. Hopefully this game is more of an example of the former than the latter.

The PSU roster also reflects an awful lot of 3 stars who have grown into outstanding players -- speaks to the quality of player development at PSU and also the fact that a lot of these guys were forced to play early because of sanctions.

Anyway my point is that PSU is going into the Shoe athletically competitive, which hasn't happened that often in the Big Ten era. They don't have to steal this game; they can win it outright.

But if Franklin can continue the current trajectory for recruiting, if the 2018 class is a harbinger, the raw talent disparity with Ohio State will be a lot less than what we're used to as PSU fans.

Heck yeah. I've been saying for years that Rivals rankings aren't the be all and end all. Everyone trots out teams that do well in the Rivals rankings as absolute proof that this is the only thing that matters. Teams like Bama and OSU. But they leave out other teams that recruit well like Texas and ND who crap the bed. Player development and the coaches having an eye for talent and team chemistry matter a whole lot.

 

[tboyer]

Stars are fraud. How many of those 5 stars BECAME 5 stars after OSU began recruiting them?

I go back and forth on the whole stars thing. But no one can say recruiting doesn't matter. It's probably 50-60 percent of the whole deal.

Ohio State isn't Ohio State because of stars, it's because they have more athletic talent than almost everybody they play (the "almost" being Clemson).

 

[tboyer]

But they leave out other teams that recruit well like Texas and ND who crap the bed. Player development and the coaches having an eye for talent and team chemistry matter a whole lot.

Definitely and this PSU team is a remarkable example. But imagine this quality of player development and even MORE consistent talent coming in the pipeline. There is so much more room to grow in coming years.

On the other hand there will never be a group like this senior class which came in and had to play early and play a TON because of sanctions. They have experience like no other senior class at PSU has had to my knowledge.

 

[HazletonLion]

Ohio State recruits like Notre Dame but knows what to do with talent. The only problem with loading up with superstars is someone has to sit, and everyone has to practice the same, for some that's hard to handle.

 

[lein]

Great schemes and gameplanning with average players will equalize average schemes and gameplayining with great players.

I think the obvious part of this game will be if PSU's OL can successfully block their DL, and if PSU's defense can get off the field. The OL played well last week but the defense still seems to give up to many first downs on the 3rd and longs. Michigan only had O'Korn. tOSU has JT and much more skilled players.

 

[Howie'81]

Great schemes and gameplanning with average players will equalize average schemes and gameplayining with great players.

I think the obvious part of this game will be if PSU's OL can successfully block their DL, and if PSU's defense can get off the field. The OL played well last week but the defense still seems to give up to many first downs on the 3rd and longs. Michigan only had O'Korn. tOSU has JT and much more skilled players.

The defense is giving up 3.9 yards per play, which I believe leads the nation. What in hell do you want?

 

[lein]

The defense is giving up 3.9 yards per play, which I believe leads the nation. What in hell do you want?

To stop allowing first downs on 3rd and long, or even completing 22 yard passes on 2nd and 21.

 

[demlion]

I go back and forth on the whole stars thing. But no one can say recruiting doesn't matter. It's probably 50-60 percent of the whole deal.

Ohio State isn't Ohio State because of stars, it's because they have more athletic talent than almost everybody they play (the "almost" being Clemson).

And Oklahoma.

 

[PSU20]

The defense is giving up 3.9 yards per play, which I believe leads the nation. What in hell do you want?

The Buckeyes do put themselves into position of 3rd down and 3 or 4 yards quite often since they can move the ball. The problem is that JT has taken the step back after getting the snap and running for a 1st down time and again. I don't think he has ever not made that 1st down. After what Okorn did, it is something we have to deal with for sure.

 

[tboyer]

To stop allowing first downs on 3rd and long, or even completing 22 yard passes on 2nd and 21.

Gotta give O'Korn a little credit - he played well, showed why he's starting for Michigan.

This defense does give up some chunk plays -- to some extent that is a tradeoff for Pry's aggressiveness. But you do get an awful lot of positives for that aggressiveness.

They contest short passes on 1st and 2nd down more than any other PSU team I've seen. They bring intense pressure on 3rd down -- sometimes it bites them when a back can get loose on a counter or draw. But mostly it works well. The overall success of the D speaks for itself. We'll see how well built they are for Ohio State.

 

[Howie'81]

To stop allowing first downs on 3rd and long, or even completing 22 yard passes on 2nd and 21.

Myopic. For goodness sakes, PSU leads the nation in scoring D as well.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

The defense is giving up 3.9 yards per play, which I believe leads the nation. What in hell do you want?

Haha. When you put it that way, seems like an absurd point.
Statistically, our D is excellent. But we haven’t seen an offense with firepower anything like tOSU’s. Fair point that tOSU ran up on lesser competition. If our D performs as it has prior to this game (especially the front 7), that’d be incredible.

Not saying we won’t and not saying we can’t, but this is a test they haven’t faced. This is a playoff level game mid-season and win or lose, both these teams are playoff caliber.

 

[Howie'81]

Haha. When you put it that way, seems like an absurd point.
Statistically, our D is excellent. But we haven’t seen an offense with firepower anything like tOSU’s. Fair point that tOSU ran up on lesser competition. If our D performs as it has prior to this game (especially the front 7), that’d be incredible.

Agree and that's why the teams are going to lace 'em up and play.

 

[jrd23psu]

The disparity between the talent on OSU and PSU is wide, but it's probably wide due to depth. OSU landed more high end recruits than PSU. They have a lot of depth. Top end guys replace top end guys, and if they go down a top end guy replaces them, too.

PSU is getting there, but right now is simply not as deep as OSU. However, top end talent amongst starters is not as great and I think some guys on PSU have far outplayed their recruiting ranking.

If you line these teams up across from each other and the 1s play there is not quite as much disparity as people would want you to believe.

 

[Howie'81]

The disparity between the talent on OSU and PSU is wide, but it's probably wide due to depth. OSU landed more high end recruits than PSU. They have a lot of depth. Top end guys replace top end guys, and if they go down a top end guy replaces them, too.

PSU is getting there, but right now is simply not as deep as OSU. However, top end talent amongst starters is not as great and I think some guys on PSU have far outplayed their recruiting ranking.

If you line these teams up across from each other and the 1s play there is not quite as much disparity as people would want you to believe.

In fact, there's no disparity.

As to guys outplaying their recruiting ranking, that tells me a lot about recruiting rankings. They can be quite wrong.

 

[PSUSignore]

This again? A correlation between recruiting rankings and national titles has been shown to exist for 10+years. There have only been 2 national title winners in recent history that didn't have consistent top 10 recruiting classes, Auburn and Clemson. While star and class rankings aren't everything and there are always exceptions particularly with small sample sizes and individual players, in general the rankings do seem to be somewhat of an accurate indicator.

 

[CF LION]

Great schemes and gameplanning with average players will equalize average schemes and gameplayining with great players.

I think the obvious part of this game will be if PSU's OL can successfully block their DL, and if PSU's defense can get off the field. The OL played well last week but the defense still seems to give up to many first downs on the 3rd and longs. Michigan only had O'Korn. tOSU has JT and much more skilled players.

Football is 90% mental and the other half is physical.

 

[Ranger Dan]

The star rating has more to do with ready to play than it does ceiling, that doesn’t mean that 5 stars are also better players on average, but it’s not a science that you can use to determine who should win a game.

 

[BoChops]

Dan Snyder learned quickly that you cannot buy a championship with just assembling the best talent on the field.

 

[lein]

Myopic. For goodness sakes, PSU leads the nation in scoring D as well.

But look at the offenses we have played thus far. None are really stellar

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Let's take it a step further. Shaka Toney. Shaka went to many Rivals 7 on 7 puff football exhibitions. He was lauded for being an unstoppable pass rusher against 4 and 5 star rivals Prima Donnas. Yet, the brainless trust at Rivals even after giving him accolades for out preforming their 4 and 5 star picks decided he was too small to rate a bump to 4 or 5 star. How very professional and intelligent of them.

JoePa had a system called bird dogging that took into account a young male athletes growth patterns over his years of high school which he and his staff members over the years used to project a players future performance. He and they often favored lower ranked players over testosterone filled matured and over hyped men that were playing against still developing players that had an upside, one that did not include getting kicked off the team, flunking out, attitude problems that prohibited learning the game plan and executing to the best of their abilities. CJF has a different system that uses similar criteria and measurable traits and tendencies. Neither bought into the highschool superstar BS peddled by these phony Guru .... pay no attention to the man behind the curtain hucksters.

Both coaches used and use a lot more of their frontal lobe than many other coaches. Ask the SEC coaches that played Vandy about that when CJF was a HC there. Ask any coach with an iota of integrity that faced JoePa developed and coached football teams.

 

[itsofficial101]

What this data tells me is that this conference is in trouble once Coach Franklin's current and future recruiting classes hit the field. We are Wisconsin in development of players and rapidly approaching Ohio St in recruiting. We just won the conference with less recruiting talent than what is in the current pipeline. And the recruiting just keeps getting better.

 

[tboyer]

What this data tells me is that this conference is in trouble once Coach Franklin's current and future recruiting classes hit the field.

Agree. Not that the B1G would be in trouble -- it's good for the B1G.

It's still 2-3 years off before we'll know. But imagine, around the year 2021, a roster built out of 5 consecutive top 10 recruiting classes. That's when you really don't lose many games to 2nd tier opponents and you get to reload and play for championships every year. That's where Ohio State is, and PSU is right now on a path to get there.