How does one prepare a review to an upcoming season, and have it make sense, or have much confidence in what they are writing? The short answers are; “they can’t”, “it’s a waste of time”, or “who’s interested, anyway?”. Well, I know plenty that are interested, and will continue annually to waste my time doing something that doesn’t mean a thing! Still, there’s plenty of FACTS here, such as who has moved on, who earned AA in 2016, etc., maybe, just maybe, it won’t be totally worthless.
So, an analysis like this, done 4 months before the season starts, begs the question…what does the writer use as a basis? The final rankings? The NCAA Tournament results? Postulation, conjecture, supposition, speculation, prediction, opinion, and other non-scientific thought? Heck yeah, all of that stuff.
Just look at the NCAA results. Final end-of-season rankings approximate the NCAA seeds, and you can see from the results why every possible review, from even the best minds, is fraught with DISASTER. Really high seeds represented themselves well, with 6 #1’s winning titles, and the other 4 #1’s finishing top-3. 8 (out of 40) top-4 seeds did NOT end as AA’s , including 3 at 174 where only #1 seed Bo Nickal managed an AA finish (he finished #2). #’s 2, 3, and 4 went down early to wrestlers named Bernstein, Reed, and Weatherspoon, and did not make it through wrestle-backs. 5 unseeded guys (remember, seeding went to 16!) became AA, and another 8 wrestlers, seeded 13-16 ended as AA’s. 31% of the 2016 AA’s were not seeded top-8…wow!! And only 3 weight classes, 133, 197, and 285 had some semblance of accuracy (seeding-wise), with 7 of the 8 AA’s in these classes seeded top-8. Point of this paragraph? I don’t care if you’re Intermat, WrestlingReport, or TOM; your name is Christian, Willie, or Jason; or you run a mathematical model called Wrestlestats…even if you go by “Roar”, none stand a chance…but at least we can make it fun, and pass the off-season with at least a little wrestling talk.
So here goes. I used NCAA results mostly, and peppered in other info, such as top-20 seniors that are gone, and incoming RSFR and true-freshmen. May have missed some, so feel free to add to the discussion. Also, my focus was on PSU, VT, Ohio State, Iowa, and Oklahoma State, my top-5 for 2016-17, so extra time was spent on those teams.
125
Gone are 2 AA’s, #’s 1 Megaludis (PSU), and #4 Terao, along with notables Klimara (OSU), Petrov and Tolbert. Looks like Gilman (Iowa), and Tomasello (tOSU) are the class of 125, and Dance (VT) a notch below though he’s not had the best of NCAA’s the past 2 years. Suriano (PSU, true freshman), and Piccininni (OSU, RSFR) will enter the fray, and should be in the mix for AA.
133
Gone are 4 AA’s, #1 Garrett, #3 Brewer, #6 Conaway (PSU), and #8 Rauser, along with Taylor, Beckham, McGuire and Alexander. This weight class really opens up. Clark (Iowa) and Richards are my top 2. Oklahoma State has Brock (Freshman status after a Hardship Waiver), PSU has Cortez (Sophomore), and tOSU has Pletcher (TRFR) entering, and all will be in the mix for AA.
141
Only 1 AA departs, #5 Mecate, as well as Abadin, Durso, Preston and Horan from the top-20 rankings, and M. Jordan (tOSU) is moving to 149. This is a deep weight class, and I really like all 4 of last year’s finishers, #1 Heil (Ok St), #2 Merideth, #3 McKenna, and #4 Ashnault. Gulibon (PSU) is capable of beating anyone on a given day, and will be looking to go out with a bang in his last season. tOSU has Hayes (RSFR), and VT has returning AA #6 Chishko. Iowa is unlikely to AA at 141, but OSU, VT, PSU, and tOSU are all likely to possible, despite the depth at 141.
149
Like 141, only 1 AA departs due to graduation, #5 DePalma, but #8 Martinez sits a year after transferring to Oklahoma State from Boise State. Sueflohn, Henderson, Richardson, Neff, and Kraus also depart, with the teams most likely to benefit being Ohio State and Virginia Tech. #1 Retherford (PSU), #2 Sorensen (Iowa), and #4 Collica (Ok St) already finished top-4, with little to gain. Not sure about VT (Mastriani?), but tOSU will insert M. Jordan, moving up from 141, and instant AA material despite a disappointing 2016 NCAA.
157
Gone are 3 AA seniors, #3 Brascetta (VT), #6 Miller, and #8 Gantt plus IMar moving to 165, making half of the 2016 AA’s vacating 157. Pack, Cooper (Iowa), Smith, and Boyles also depart from among the top-20 guys. Nolf (PSU) should be a clear favorite with IMar departing, and Smith (7th/Ok St) will likely best his 2016 finish. Blees (VT, transfer from Ok St) has less than 25% chance to AA, imo, but Kemerer (Iowa), and Ryan (tOSU) are more likely, probably #5-#8 range, R12 if they don’t AA.
165
Hodge Trophy winner Dieringer (Ok St), along with, #5 Rodrigues, #7 A. Wilson and #8 Perrotti are gone, but 165 picks up I. Martinez from 157. 165 also loses Staudenmeyer, Brennan, Weatherman, Welch and Pickett rom among the top-20, but is still talent-laden. Question marks for 2016-17 include who goes for tOSU, I. White or Bo Jordan, and whether TnT will RS Marinelli (Iowa). McFadden (#6/VT) is back and could move up the AA ladder due to departures, though IMar moves everyone, imo, down 1 peg. Joseph (PSU) will be an AA candidate out of the gate, so the Nittany Lions appear to have the most to gain at this weight class.
174
2016 was a mess. Only one seed among the top-6 earned AA, and we saw 2 unseeded guys finish 4th and 6th, as well as a #12 seed finish 5th and a #13 seed finish 8th. All that, and a #11 seed, Martin (tOSU) wins the championship. I love the NCAA’s!! #4 Kent and #7 Walters depart, and Hammond, Butler, Ottinger, Courts, and Harvey of note from among the top-20. Epperly (VT) returns after winning 7 straight in wrestle-backs to finish 3rd, and Iowa has #8 Meyer returning. Still not sure what tOSU will do, but either B. Jordan (#3 at 165) or Martin will challenge for the championship. #2 Nickal (PSU) returns and is looking to improve on his 2016 finish. OSU should have Crutchmer back from a late-season injury, so it’s possible all 5 teams I’m reviewing will have an AA finish, though Realbuto, Ramos and others will surely have a say.
184
Only AA’s #5 Miller and #7 Brown are gone in what will be a senior-laden weight class. Zillmer, Avery, Stauffer, and Thomas depart as well. #4 Boyd (OSU) returns, as does #8 Brooks (Iowa), both looking to improve their finish, though #1 Dean seems a prohibitive favorite for the top spot. Again, what will Ohio State do? Could see Martin move up from 174, that being my guess as I. White gets inserted at 165. The two teams with the most to gain here are VT (Zavatsky did not AA, and was a #5 seed), and PSU. Who goes for the Blue-and-White is regular forum-talk, with McCutcheon and Rasheed the choices, with an occasional “I heard a rumor that Bo is moving to 184”. Looks like all 5 teams have AA potential.
197
#2 McIntosh (PSU), #4 Burak (Iowa), and #7 Hartmann depart, as well as a slew of other top-20 guys…Franklin, Huntley, Nye, Bolich, Noon, and Wellington. #1 Cox and #3 Pfarr look to be the clear top-2, with #6 Haught (VT) looking to move up. NQ Weigel could sneak in an AA finish, but I’m calling him less than 50-50. Moore (tOSU) and Cassar (PSU) could make some noise, but both are unknowns for the most part, and Cassar is recovering from injury. I’ll leave both as R16 to R12 guys. If Weigel, Moore, or Cassar do AA, it will be big for their team.
285
Departing are #2 Gwiz, #6 Marsden (OSU), and #8 Wessel, along with Stolfi, Cabell, Shaw, and Smith. #1 Snyder (tOSU) has nowhere to go but down (and that’s incredibly unlikely), so it’s a wash for tOSU. #4 Walz (VT) could move up, even to #2, so that’s a possible +3.5 points. Stoll (Iowa), and Nevills (PSU) both have a chance to make a big impact for their team. Both are coming off injuries, and recovery…I just wish them good health and good luck on the mat. Both could, and should, AA, if healthy, though I’ll give Stoll the higher upside for now. OSU’s JUCO transfer, Andrews, will have a tough time AA’ing.
TEAMS, AND A FUTURE LOOK NEXT...
So, an analysis like this, done 4 months before the season starts, begs the question…what does the writer use as a basis? The final rankings? The NCAA Tournament results? Postulation, conjecture, supposition, speculation, prediction, opinion, and other non-scientific thought? Heck yeah, all of that stuff.
Just look at the NCAA results. Final end-of-season rankings approximate the NCAA seeds, and you can see from the results why every possible review, from even the best minds, is fraught with DISASTER. Really high seeds represented themselves well, with 6 #1’s winning titles, and the other 4 #1’s finishing top-3. 8 (out of 40) top-4 seeds did NOT end as AA’s , including 3 at 174 where only #1 seed Bo Nickal managed an AA finish (he finished #2). #’s 2, 3, and 4 went down early to wrestlers named Bernstein, Reed, and Weatherspoon, and did not make it through wrestle-backs. 5 unseeded guys (remember, seeding went to 16!) became AA, and another 8 wrestlers, seeded 13-16 ended as AA’s. 31% of the 2016 AA’s were not seeded top-8…wow!! And only 3 weight classes, 133, 197, and 285 had some semblance of accuracy (seeding-wise), with 7 of the 8 AA’s in these classes seeded top-8. Point of this paragraph? I don’t care if you’re Intermat, WrestlingReport, or TOM; your name is Christian, Willie, or Jason; or you run a mathematical model called Wrestlestats…even if you go by “Roar”, none stand a chance…but at least we can make it fun, and pass the off-season with at least a little wrestling talk.
So here goes. I used NCAA results mostly, and peppered in other info, such as top-20 seniors that are gone, and incoming RSFR and true-freshmen. May have missed some, so feel free to add to the discussion. Also, my focus was on PSU, VT, Ohio State, Iowa, and Oklahoma State, my top-5 for 2016-17, so extra time was spent on those teams.
125
Gone are 2 AA’s, #’s 1 Megaludis (PSU), and #4 Terao, along with notables Klimara (OSU), Petrov and Tolbert. Looks like Gilman (Iowa), and Tomasello (tOSU) are the class of 125, and Dance (VT) a notch below though he’s not had the best of NCAA’s the past 2 years. Suriano (PSU, true freshman), and Piccininni (OSU, RSFR) will enter the fray, and should be in the mix for AA.
133
Gone are 4 AA’s, #1 Garrett, #3 Brewer, #6 Conaway (PSU), and #8 Rauser, along with Taylor, Beckham, McGuire and Alexander. This weight class really opens up. Clark (Iowa) and Richards are my top 2. Oklahoma State has Brock (Freshman status after a Hardship Waiver), PSU has Cortez (Sophomore), and tOSU has Pletcher (TRFR) entering, and all will be in the mix for AA.
141
Only 1 AA departs, #5 Mecate, as well as Abadin, Durso, Preston and Horan from the top-20 rankings, and M. Jordan (tOSU) is moving to 149. This is a deep weight class, and I really like all 4 of last year’s finishers, #1 Heil (Ok St), #2 Merideth, #3 McKenna, and #4 Ashnault. Gulibon (PSU) is capable of beating anyone on a given day, and will be looking to go out with a bang in his last season. tOSU has Hayes (RSFR), and VT has returning AA #6 Chishko. Iowa is unlikely to AA at 141, but OSU, VT, PSU, and tOSU are all likely to possible, despite the depth at 141.
149
Like 141, only 1 AA departs due to graduation, #5 DePalma, but #8 Martinez sits a year after transferring to Oklahoma State from Boise State. Sueflohn, Henderson, Richardson, Neff, and Kraus also depart, with the teams most likely to benefit being Ohio State and Virginia Tech. #1 Retherford (PSU), #2 Sorensen (Iowa), and #4 Collica (Ok St) already finished top-4, with little to gain. Not sure about VT (Mastriani?), but tOSU will insert M. Jordan, moving up from 141, and instant AA material despite a disappointing 2016 NCAA.
157
Gone are 3 AA seniors, #3 Brascetta (VT), #6 Miller, and #8 Gantt plus IMar moving to 165, making half of the 2016 AA’s vacating 157. Pack, Cooper (Iowa), Smith, and Boyles also depart from among the top-20 guys. Nolf (PSU) should be a clear favorite with IMar departing, and Smith (7th/Ok St) will likely best his 2016 finish. Blees (VT, transfer from Ok St) has less than 25% chance to AA, imo, but Kemerer (Iowa), and Ryan (tOSU) are more likely, probably #5-#8 range, R12 if they don’t AA.
165
Hodge Trophy winner Dieringer (Ok St), along with, #5 Rodrigues, #7 A. Wilson and #8 Perrotti are gone, but 165 picks up I. Martinez from 157. 165 also loses Staudenmeyer, Brennan, Weatherman, Welch and Pickett rom among the top-20, but is still talent-laden. Question marks for 2016-17 include who goes for tOSU, I. White or Bo Jordan, and whether TnT will RS Marinelli (Iowa). McFadden (#6/VT) is back and could move up the AA ladder due to departures, though IMar moves everyone, imo, down 1 peg. Joseph (PSU) will be an AA candidate out of the gate, so the Nittany Lions appear to have the most to gain at this weight class.
174
2016 was a mess. Only one seed among the top-6 earned AA, and we saw 2 unseeded guys finish 4th and 6th, as well as a #12 seed finish 5th and a #13 seed finish 8th. All that, and a #11 seed, Martin (tOSU) wins the championship. I love the NCAA’s!! #4 Kent and #7 Walters depart, and Hammond, Butler, Ottinger, Courts, and Harvey of note from among the top-20. Epperly (VT) returns after winning 7 straight in wrestle-backs to finish 3rd, and Iowa has #8 Meyer returning. Still not sure what tOSU will do, but either B. Jordan (#3 at 165) or Martin will challenge for the championship. #2 Nickal (PSU) returns and is looking to improve on his 2016 finish. OSU should have Crutchmer back from a late-season injury, so it’s possible all 5 teams I’m reviewing will have an AA finish, though Realbuto, Ramos and others will surely have a say.
184
Only AA’s #5 Miller and #7 Brown are gone in what will be a senior-laden weight class. Zillmer, Avery, Stauffer, and Thomas depart as well. #4 Boyd (OSU) returns, as does #8 Brooks (Iowa), both looking to improve their finish, though #1 Dean seems a prohibitive favorite for the top spot. Again, what will Ohio State do? Could see Martin move up from 174, that being my guess as I. White gets inserted at 165. The two teams with the most to gain here are VT (Zavatsky did not AA, and was a #5 seed), and PSU. Who goes for the Blue-and-White is regular forum-talk, with McCutcheon and Rasheed the choices, with an occasional “I heard a rumor that Bo is moving to 184”. Looks like all 5 teams have AA potential.
197
#2 McIntosh (PSU), #4 Burak (Iowa), and #7 Hartmann depart, as well as a slew of other top-20 guys…Franklin, Huntley, Nye, Bolich, Noon, and Wellington. #1 Cox and #3 Pfarr look to be the clear top-2, with #6 Haught (VT) looking to move up. NQ Weigel could sneak in an AA finish, but I’m calling him less than 50-50. Moore (tOSU) and Cassar (PSU) could make some noise, but both are unknowns for the most part, and Cassar is recovering from injury. I’ll leave both as R16 to R12 guys. If Weigel, Moore, or Cassar do AA, it will be big for their team.
285
Departing are #2 Gwiz, #6 Marsden (OSU), and #8 Wessel, along with Stolfi, Cabell, Shaw, and Smith. #1 Snyder (tOSU) has nowhere to go but down (and that’s incredibly unlikely), so it’s a wash for tOSU. #4 Walz (VT) could move up, even to #2, so that’s a possible +3.5 points. Stoll (Iowa), and Nevills (PSU) both have a chance to make a big impact for their team. Both are coming off injuries, and recovery…I just wish them good health and good luck on the mat. Both could, and should, AA, if healthy, though I’ll give Stoll the higher upside for now. OSU’s JUCO transfer, Andrews, will have a tough time AA’ing.
TEAMS, AND A FUTURE LOOK NEXT...
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