No, but I'll take the extra physical/mental rest + a chance to live scout the other semi.
Roar's 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships Seeding Review
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
I agree. Hamiti is favored, but that's just in my mind. Putting in black-and-white that you're not impressed with the guy (Amine) that beat your favorite (Hamiti), in your opinion of course, seems odd. Give the Michigan dude an ounce of credit, he beat Hamiti once on the mat already. If a rematch happens, I'll put my nickel on Hamiti, but it will be close.
174
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU)
#2 Mikey Labriola (NEB)
#3 Ethan Smith (tOSU)
#4 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN)
#5 Edmond Ruth (ILL)
#6 Donnell Washington (IND)
#7 Nelson Brands (IOWA)
#8 Troy Fisher (NU)
#9 Max Maylor (MICH)
Two wrestlers sit atop the Big Ten, undefeated and on a collision course. #1 Carter Starocci (PSU) gets the nod over #2 Mikey Labriola (NEB). While on paper it may look like a toss-up in 2023, Starocci has earned the top seed with his undefeated slate after starting the year #1. And while previous years don’t count, Starooci started this year where he ended last year – on top of the polls AND last year on top of the podium. Labriola is wrestling his best ever. He has a SV win against Mehki Lewis outside the Big Ten this season to go along with a 23-0 record, so he’s a real force at 174. I'm hopeful for a Starocci win at Big Ten's, as it likely places both Labriola and Lewis on the opposite bracket. That said, Chris Foca (CORN) is also having a fabulous year, and is currently sitting #4 nationally before conference tournaments. He only has one loss, a 2-3 decision against Mehki Lewis. Foca also has a solid win against Ethan Smith. Something has to give at NCAA's, watching these four will be fun.
Not much separates #3 Ethan Smith (tOSU) and #4 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN). Both lost to Labriola and Smith lost to Starocci too for their lone Big Ten losses of the season. This is a true toss-up using their 2023 bodies of work. Smith gets the higher seed, ever so slightly, with better wins – against Max Maylor (MICH, 2x), Donnell Washington (IND), Edmond Ruth (ILL, Michigan State Open) and Troy Fisher (NU, 2x), while O’Reilly has wins against Ruth, and Washington as his best.
#5 Edmond Ruth settles in nicely next, losing HTH to the two guys just in front of him, while winning six of eight conference duals, including against Nelson Brands (IOWA).
The next three seeds come from among Brands, Washington and Fisher – and it is REALLY close. Brands, at 3-3 owns no great wins and has three losses to guys in front of him. Washington, at 5-3 is similar. Ditto Fisher, at 3-1. I see little separating the three except I did notice that Washington took the mat for all of Indiana’s eight duals, so I’ll reward him with the #6 seed. It’s not much, and again the limited action for many wrestlers has us in this bind. Record alone DOES NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY.
#7 Brands and #8 Fisher is, as already stated, a toss-up. I’m going to do something I don’t remember ever doing, dating back over 10 years – reward a guy for close losses. A 2-1 loss to Starocci, 3-2 to Labriola and 2-1 in SV to Smith suggest that Brands was consistenly right there with the best at this weight class, so as narrow a call as that is, Brands gets the higher seed.
#9 Max Maylor (MICH) gets the best-of-the-rest award and the #9 seed, though when looking closely, he has a similar resume to the guys just in front of him. Losing HTH to Washington is a factor in my decision.
174 may not be the weakest weight class in the Big Ten, but it’s not the strongest either. The conference does have the top two guys in the country, along with consensus #5 or #6 nationally Ethan Smith, and Bailee O’Reilly and/or Edmond Ruth could challenge for an All-American finish, but that’s it. I see a solid eight (8) qualification allocations, and probably a 9th, maybe a 10th. Maylor has a solid RPI, Coaches Ranking and Win %, as does Ceasar Garza (MSU), so they could earn the conference a 9th and 10th. The other 8 earned allocation slots are from my top-8 seeds.
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU)
#2 Mikey Labriola (NEB)
#3 Ethan Smith (tOSU)
#4 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN)
#5 Edmond Ruth (ILL)
#6 Donnell Washington (IND)
#7 Nelson Brands (IOWA)
#8 Troy Fisher (NU)
#9 Max Maylor (MICH)
Two wrestlers sit atop the Big Ten, undefeated and on a collision course. #1 Carter Starocci (PSU) gets the nod over #2 Mikey Labriola (NEB). While on paper it may look like a toss-up in 2023, Starocci has earned the top seed with his undefeated slate after starting the year #1. And while previous years don’t count, Starooci started this year where he ended last year – on top of the polls AND last year on top of the podium. Labriola is wrestling his best ever. He has a SV win against Mehki Lewis outside the Big Ten this season to go along with a 23-0 record, so he’s a real force at 174. I'm hopeful for a Starocci win at Big Ten's, as it likely places both Labriola and Lewis on the opposite bracket. That said, Chris Foca (CORN) is also having a fabulous year, and is currently sitting #4 nationally before conference tournaments. He only has one loss, a 2-3 decision against Mehki Lewis. Foca also has a solid win against Ethan Smith. Something has to give at NCAA's, watching these four will be fun.
Not much separates #3 Ethan Smith (tOSU) and #4 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN). Both lost to Labriola and Smith lost to Starocci too for their lone Big Ten losses of the season. This is a true toss-up using their 2023 bodies of work. Smith gets the higher seed, ever so slightly, with better wins – against Max Maylor (MICH, 2x), Donnell Washington (IND), Edmond Ruth (ILL, Michigan State Open) and Troy Fisher (NU, 2x), while O’Reilly has wins against Ruth, and Washington as his best.
#5 Edmond Ruth settles in nicely next, losing HTH to the two guys just in front of him, while winning six of eight conference duals, including against Nelson Brands (IOWA).
The next three seeds come from among Brands, Washington and Fisher – and it is REALLY close. Brands, at 3-3 owns no great wins and has three losses to guys in front of him. Washington, at 5-3 is similar. Ditto Fisher, at 3-1. I see little separating the three except I did notice that Washington took the mat for all of Indiana’s eight duals, so I’ll reward him with the #6 seed. It’s not much, and again the limited action for many wrestlers has us in this bind. Record alone DOES NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY.
#7 Brands and #8 Fisher is, as already stated, a toss-up. I’m going to do something I don’t remember ever doing, dating back over 10 years – reward a guy for close losses. A 2-1 loss to Starocci, 3-2 to Labriola and 2-1 in SV to Smith suggest that Brands was consistenly right there with the best at this weight class, so as narrow a call as that is, Brands gets the higher seed.
#9 Max Maylor (MICH) gets the best-of-the-rest award and the #9 seed, though when looking closely, he has a similar resume to the guys just in front of him. Losing HTH to Washington is a factor in my decision.
174 may not be the weakest weight class in the Big Ten, but it’s not the strongest either. The conference does have the top two guys in the country, along with consensus #5 or #6 nationally Ethan Smith, and Bailee O’Reilly and/or Edmond Ruth could challenge for an All-American finish, but that’s it. I see a solid eight (8) qualification allocations, and probably a 9th, maybe a 10th. Maylor has a solid RPI, Coaches Ranking and Win %, as does Ceasar Garza (MSU), so they could earn the conference a 9th and 10th. The other 8 earned allocation slots are from my top-8 seeds.
I wouldn't mind the seeding committee putting Nelson Brands on the same side of the bracket as Starocci.
This is your best one to date. Love it brother!
"Not impressed" is relative to the top seeds in a stacked B1G weight class. Obviously, he's among the elite wrestlers in the country either way. Regardless, the Amine-Hamiti result is the one that I'd set aside in the seeding process where a bunch of guys have circular wins against each other to ensure that Hamiti, who I consider the best of the bunch, is also the top seed.
184
#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU)
#2 Isaiah Salazar (MINN)
#3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU)
#4 Matt Finesilver (MICH)
#5 Lane Malczewski (MSU)
#6 Abe Assad (IOWA)
#7 Lenny Pinto (NEB)
#8 Brian Soldano (RUT)
#9 Dylan Connel (IND)
Two guys stand alone, undefeated at 184. They are #1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) and #2 Isaiah Salazar (MINN). Brooks has been on top since the beginning of the season, and he’ll remain there until someone in the Big Ten knocks him off. Good luck, fellas! Brooks won HTH against my #3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU) in a close 3-2 bout. I suspect the Big Ten will have it #2 Romero and #3 Salazar, so let me explain my logic for having them flipped. Aside from losing to Brooks, which does not hurt him in the seedings, Romero’s best win is against Matt Finesilver (MICH), certainly a great win, and he's also won against Brian Soldano (RUT). Salazar, on the other has wins against Lance Malcewski (MSU) and Lenny Pinto (NEB). At best that’s a wash, at worst it’s, sadly still a wash. I’ll go with the undefeated guy (he’s 7-0 in conference), though that’s not the best criteria. They should be on the same side of the bracket, so all’s good.
#4 Matt Finesilver beat #5 Lance Malczewski HTH, and neither guy has bad losses. Finesilver lost to Brooks and Romero (2x, dual & Michigan State Open), while Malczewski lost to Salazar and Finesilver. The HTH result trumps here.
#6 Abe Assad (IOWA) is next. The Hawkeye was pinned by Tyler Dow (WIS) in the dual, but Assad’s win vs Pinto trumps the body of work of the wrestlers at #7, #8 and so on. To be honest, I’m not sure Assad will go at Big Ten’s, though I hope he does. He hasn’t wrestled since January 22.
Zero, nada, nothing separates Brian Soldano (RUT) and Lenny Pinto. Might as well flip a coin on this pick. I’ll go #7 Pinto and #8 Soldano. Why exactly? Because well – Rutgers. Just kidding, just kidding. I did flip a coin!
#9 Dylan Connell (IND) was beaten HTH by Soldano, so he’s my final seed at 184.
Like 174, 184 isn’t the strongest weight class in the Big Ten, nor is it the weakest. I see an allocation of 9, and 8 if Assad is absent. Other than Brooks and Romero, the Big Ten at 184 is lacking what I’ll call other consensus or likely All-Americans. Still, the conference will do some damage as this weight class is littered with guys in the 10 to 16 seed range, give or take.
#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU)
#2 Isaiah Salazar (MINN)
#3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU)
#4 Matt Finesilver (MICH)
#5 Lane Malczewski (MSU)
#6 Abe Assad (IOWA)
#7 Lenny Pinto (NEB)
#8 Brian Soldano (RUT)
#9 Dylan Connel (IND)
Two guys stand alone, undefeated at 184. They are #1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) and #2 Isaiah Salazar (MINN). Brooks has been on top since the beginning of the season, and he’ll remain there until someone in the Big Ten knocks him off. Good luck, fellas! Brooks won HTH against my #3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU) in a close 3-2 bout. I suspect the Big Ten will have it #2 Romero and #3 Salazar, so let me explain my logic for having them flipped. Aside from losing to Brooks, which does not hurt him in the seedings, Romero’s best win is against Matt Finesilver (MICH), certainly a great win, and he's also won against Brian Soldano (RUT). Salazar, on the other has wins against Lance Malcewski (MSU) and Lenny Pinto (NEB). At best that’s a wash, at worst it’s, sadly still a wash. I’ll go with the undefeated guy (he’s 7-0 in conference), though that’s not the best criteria. They should be on the same side of the bracket, so all’s good.
#4 Matt Finesilver beat #5 Lance Malczewski HTH, and neither guy has bad losses. Finesilver lost to Brooks and Romero (2x, dual & Michigan State Open), while Malczewski lost to Salazar and Finesilver. The HTH result trumps here.
#6 Abe Assad (IOWA) is next. The Hawkeye was pinned by Tyler Dow (WIS) in the dual, but Assad’s win vs Pinto trumps the body of work of the wrestlers at #7, #8 and so on. To be honest, I’m not sure Assad will go at Big Ten’s, though I hope he does. He hasn’t wrestled since January 22.
Zero, nada, nothing separates Brian Soldano (RUT) and Lenny Pinto. Might as well flip a coin on this pick. I’ll go #7 Pinto and #8 Soldano. Why exactly? Because well – Rutgers. Just kidding, just kidding. I did flip a coin!
#9 Dylan Connell (IND) was beaten HTH by Soldano, so he’s my final seed at 184.
Like 174, 184 isn’t the strongest weight class in the Big Ten, nor is it the weakest. I see an allocation of 9, and 8 if Assad is absent. Other than Brooks and Romero, the Big Ten at 184 is lacking what I’ll call other consensus or likely All-Americans. Still, the conference will do some damage as this weight class is littered with guys in the 10 to 16 seed range, give or take.
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I see. The difference is that I give credit for what can be considered the best win from among this group of four, while you set it aside. My feelings, based on lots of past Big Ten seeding reviews and subsequent actual seedings is that nearly anything is possible. Some match, some don't. We'll know more at the end of next week.
Nah, let those guys fight for the trophy that doesn't matter.Are we trying to win B!Gs now?
Barring some major upsets and injuries they will be fighting over the 2nd place trophy as right now I don't see the BIG title as being very close.Nah, let those guys fight for the trophy that doesn't matter.
197
#1 Max Dean (PSU)
#2 Silas Allred (NEB)
#3 Zach Braunagel (ILL)
#4 Gavin Hoffman (tOSU)
#5 Cameron Caffey (MSU)
#6 Jacob Warner (IOWA)
#7 Jaxon Smith (MD)
#8 Braxton Amos (WIS)
#9 Michial Foy (MINN)
197, with two undefeated wrestlers in Big Ten bouts, has a clear #1 seed. That would be #1 Max Dean (PSU). The other undefeated guy, Jaxon Smith (MD) is only 2-0 in conference, though he also owns a tournament victory over Zach Braunagel (ILL). Dean owns victories against Garrett Hoffman (tOSU), Cameron Caffey (MSU), and Braxton Amos (WIS) among his wins, going 8-0 in conference duals.
197 is arguably the weakest Big Ten weight class, top-to-bottom. After Dean, I only see one guy that stands out more than the rest and is deserving of the next seed. My #2 is Silas Allred (NEB). He does have a loss HTH to Jacob Warner (IOWA), but has wins vs Braunagel, Amos, Michial Foy (MINN), and Garrett Hoffman (at Cliff Keen) among his Big Ten wins. The Warner loss is his only in the conference, and he’s been on a tear winning his last five conference duals to take charge and earn the high seed.
Warner hurt his chances of a higher seed, going 3-3 in conference with two of those losses, to Dean and Michial Foy, in his last three bouts. He does not seem to be the same wrestler that made it to the 2022 NCAA finals. Injury? Maybe. Still, I have him in the mix with Braunagel, Caffey, Foy, Amos, Smith and Hoffman for my next seed, simply because he beat Allred. For three of those guys we have Braunagel beating Hoffman (albeit at the Michigan State Open), Hoffman beating Caffey, and Caffey beating Braunagel. Again, the transitive law doesn’t help us. We have another in that Warner beat Allred, Allred beat Foy and Foy beat Warner. There might be another of these situations at 197, but I stopped looking. Frankly, the wrestlers beat up on each other, with not a one standing out after Dean and Allred.
Here goes. Other than the wins against lower seeded guys;
#4 Gavin Hoffman has the Caffey win, and only two losses, to #1 Dean and #3 Braunagel. While the Braunagel loss was at the Michigan State Open, it does carry weight here and was a factor choosing Braunagel as #3.
#5 Cameron Caffey is next, with a solid win over Foy and a great win over Braunagel to go with losses to Hoffman and Dean, neither which are bad losses.
Here’s where I’ll place #6 Jacob Warner. I feel a tad bad here, as prior to this I haven’t assigned Warner a seed. He’s highly ranked nationally, and at this point I’m confident the Hawkeye, if healthy, will exceed any seed I pick here or lower. His problem is the Foy loss, giving up the go-ahead takedown in the final second of a bout. It’s a fact that me and others can’t avoid. I was going to insert Smith, but frankly Warner’s Allred win is better than Smith’s Braunagel win.
Next is #7 Jaxon Smith, but he could land many places when the Big Ten does their seeds. He is 2-0 in conference duals, with wins vs Willham and Filipovich, neither of which help his cause. It’s a tournament result that caught my attention, Smith pinning Zach Braunagel at the Tiger Style Invite. It’s enough to make it #7 Smith. How will the Big Ten assess these few bouts with one nice win? I think here is about right.
#8 Braxton Amos has a HTH win vs #9 Michial Foy, so that settles it for the next two seeds.
197 is a mess. Frankly, anything after #1 seed Dean has opposing facts to those I’ve given to place wrestlers in their seed. It’s a weak conference weight class with few Big Ten stars. Still, Hoffman’s performance last season is yet another reminder that the NCAA Championship is full of surprises. The Big Ten guys listed after Dean above are capable of inflicting some damage in the brackets. I expect at least 8 allocation spots and likely 9 for the Big Ten.
#1 Max Dean (PSU)
#2 Silas Allred (NEB)
#3 Zach Braunagel (ILL)
#4 Gavin Hoffman (tOSU)
#5 Cameron Caffey (MSU)
#6 Jacob Warner (IOWA)
#7 Jaxon Smith (MD)
#8 Braxton Amos (WIS)
#9 Michial Foy (MINN)
197, with two undefeated wrestlers in Big Ten bouts, has a clear #1 seed. That would be #1 Max Dean (PSU). The other undefeated guy, Jaxon Smith (MD) is only 2-0 in conference, though he also owns a tournament victory over Zach Braunagel (ILL). Dean owns victories against Garrett Hoffman (tOSU), Cameron Caffey (MSU), and Braxton Amos (WIS) among his wins, going 8-0 in conference duals.
197 is arguably the weakest Big Ten weight class, top-to-bottom. After Dean, I only see one guy that stands out more than the rest and is deserving of the next seed. My #2 is Silas Allred (NEB). He does have a loss HTH to Jacob Warner (IOWA), but has wins vs Braunagel, Amos, Michial Foy (MINN), and Garrett Hoffman (at Cliff Keen) among his Big Ten wins. The Warner loss is his only in the conference, and he’s been on a tear winning his last five conference duals to take charge and earn the high seed.
Warner hurt his chances of a higher seed, going 3-3 in conference with two of those losses, to Dean and Michial Foy, in his last three bouts. He does not seem to be the same wrestler that made it to the 2022 NCAA finals. Injury? Maybe. Still, I have him in the mix with Braunagel, Caffey, Foy, Amos, Smith and Hoffman for my next seed, simply because he beat Allred. For three of those guys we have Braunagel beating Hoffman (albeit at the Michigan State Open), Hoffman beating Caffey, and Caffey beating Braunagel. Again, the transitive law doesn’t help us. We have another in that Warner beat Allred, Allred beat Foy and Foy beat Warner. There might be another of these situations at 197, but I stopped looking. Frankly, the wrestlers beat up on each other, with not a one standing out after Dean and Allred.
Here goes. Other than the wins against lower seeded guys;
- Braunagel has good wins over Foy, Amos (2x), Warner and Hoffman (Michigan State Open), and losses to Allred, Smith (a@ Tiger Style) and Caffey
- Caffey has wins Foy and Braunagel, with losses to Hoffman and Dean
- Foy has the win over Warner, and losses to Braunagel, Caffey, Allred and Amos
- Amos has a win over Foy, and losses to Allread, Braunagel (2x) and Dean
- Smith has a win over Braunagel and no losses, but only 3 bouts against B1G wrestlers
- Hoffman has a win vs Caffey, with losses to Dean and Braunagel (@MSO)
- Warner has the Allred win, and losses to Foy, Dean and Braunagel
#4 Gavin Hoffman has the Caffey win, and only two losses, to #1 Dean and #3 Braunagel. While the Braunagel loss was at the Michigan State Open, it does carry weight here and was a factor choosing Braunagel as #3.
#5 Cameron Caffey is next, with a solid win over Foy and a great win over Braunagel to go with losses to Hoffman and Dean, neither which are bad losses.
Here’s where I’ll place #6 Jacob Warner. I feel a tad bad here, as prior to this I haven’t assigned Warner a seed. He’s highly ranked nationally, and at this point I’m confident the Hawkeye, if healthy, will exceed any seed I pick here or lower. His problem is the Foy loss, giving up the go-ahead takedown in the final second of a bout. It’s a fact that me and others can’t avoid. I was going to insert Smith, but frankly Warner’s Allred win is better than Smith’s Braunagel win.
Next is #7 Jaxon Smith, but he could land many places when the Big Ten does their seeds. He is 2-0 in conference duals, with wins vs Willham and Filipovich, neither of which help his cause. It’s a tournament result that caught my attention, Smith pinning Zach Braunagel at the Tiger Style Invite. It’s enough to make it #7 Smith. How will the Big Ten assess these few bouts with one nice win? I think here is about right.
#8 Braxton Amos has a HTH win vs #9 Michial Foy, so that settles it for the next two seeds.
197 is a mess. Frankly, anything after #1 seed Dean has opposing facts to those I’ve given to place wrestlers in their seed. It’s a weak conference weight class with few Big Ten stars. Still, Hoffman’s performance last season is yet another reminder that the NCAA Championship is full of surprises. The Big Ten guys listed after Dean above are capable of inflicting some damage in the brackets. I expect at least 8 allocation spots and likely 9 for the Big Ten.
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285
#1 Mason Parris (MICH)
#2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU)
#3 Tony Cassioppi (IOWA)
#4 Lucas Davison (NU)
#5 Trent Hillger (WIS)
#6 Jacob Bullock (IND)
#7 Tate Orndorff (tOSU)
#8 Jaron Smith (MD)
#9 Boone McDermott (RUT)
Isn’t this fun? I’m already at my final weight class. Hard to believe. Next step is wait for the Big Ten to release the pre-seeds next week to see how my craziness matches up. Hope you enjoyed the reads.
#1 Mason Parris (MICH) stands alone as undefeated in the Big Ten at the heaviest of all weight classes. As he won against #2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU), #3 Tony Cassioppi (IOWA), and #4 Lucas Davison (albeit at Cliff Keen), this is an easy pick. I’m not as sure that he’ll be on the top step of the podium at Big Ten’s however, but that’s another debate for a different day.
#2 Kerkvliet, #3 Cassioppi and #4 Davison are just as easy. Kerkvliet beat Cassioppi HTH and has no other losses than the one to Parris. Cassioppi owns a win against Davison, and has no other losses than the two already noted. So far, so good, anything different than this would be a sham. In fact, I’d keep these four atop the NCAA seeds too, but then “Conference Champion” becomes a Subjective Criteria and could unfairly hurt a wrestler’s seed. Fyi, Davison is 18-2, with only losses to Cassioppi and Parris!
#5 Trent Hillger (WIS) slots in nicely next with four losses in the Big Ten, but all to the guys in front of him. Tate Orndorff (tOSU) would have been in the conversation for #5 except for a loss to Jacob Bullock (IND), which started a circular result in motion.
Orndorff beat Jaron Smith (MD), Smith beat Bullock, and Bullock beat Orndorff. Only one of these three has a loss to someone not yet seeded. That would be Smith, who has a loss to Boone McDermott (RUT), along with three others (Parris, Orndorff and Hillger), I’m slotting Smith at #8. That opens the door to use head-to-head match-ups, so it will be #6 Jacob Bullock and #7 Tate Orndorff.
Heaven-only-knows what Boone McDermott could have accomplished with more conference bouts. At 2-0 and a win against Smith, I'm placing him at #9. Wouldn’t surprise me if he gets seeded in front of Smith because of this HTH win, but imo it’s a pretty weak argument when he’s only wrestled two conference duals. #8/#9 go in the first round, so no biggie.
285 is a very good weight class for the conference. The top four nationally are Big Ten wrestlers, and the supporting cast, with Hillger, Orndorff, McDermott as solid top-20 guys. I’m counting at least 8 and likely 9 allocations.
#1 Mason Parris (MICH)
#2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU)
#3 Tony Cassioppi (IOWA)
#4 Lucas Davison (NU)
#5 Trent Hillger (WIS)
#6 Jacob Bullock (IND)
#7 Tate Orndorff (tOSU)
#8 Jaron Smith (MD)
#9 Boone McDermott (RUT)
Isn’t this fun? I’m already at my final weight class. Hard to believe. Next step is wait for the Big Ten to release the pre-seeds next week to see how my craziness matches up. Hope you enjoyed the reads.
#1 Mason Parris (MICH) stands alone as undefeated in the Big Ten at the heaviest of all weight classes. As he won against #2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU), #3 Tony Cassioppi (IOWA), and #4 Lucas Davison (albeit at Cliff Keen), this is an easy pick. I’m not as sure that he’ll be on the top step of the podium at Big Ten’s however, but that’s another debate for a different day.
#2 Kerkvliet, #3 Cassioppi and #4 Davison are just as easy. Kerkvliet beat Cassioppi HTH and has no other losses than the one to Parris. Cassioppi owns a win against Davison, and has no other losses than the two already noted. So far, so good, anything different than this would be a sham. In fact, I’d keep these four atop the NCAA seeds too, but then “Conference Champion” becomes a Subjective Criteria and could unfairly hurt a wrestler’s seed. Fyi, Davison is 18-2, with only losses to Cassioppi and Parris!
#5 Trent Hillger (WIS) slots in nicely next with four losses in the Big Ten, but all to the guys in front of him. Tate Orndorff (tOSU) would have been in the conversation for #5 except for a loss to Jacob Bullock (IND), which started a circular result in motion.
Orndorff beat Jaron Smith (MD), Smith beat Bullock, and Bullock beat Orndorff. Only one of these three has a loss to someone not yet seeded. That would be Smith, who has a loss to Boone McDermott (RUT), along with three others (Parris, Orndorff and Hillger), I’m slotting Smith at #8. That opens the door to use head-to-head match-ups, so it will be #6 Jacob Bullock and #7 Tate Orndorff.
Heaven-only-knows what Boone McDermott could have accomplished with more conference bouts. At 2-0 and a win against Smith, I'm placing him at #9. Wouldn’t surprise me if he gets seeded in front of Smith because of this HTH win, but imo it’s a pretty weak argument when he’s only wrestled two conference duals. #8/#9 go in the first round, so no biggie.
285 is a very good weight class for the conference. The top four nationally are Big Ten wrestlers, and the supporting cast, with Hillger, Orndorff, McDermott as solid top-20 guys. I’m counting at least 8 and likely 9 allocations.
197 will be a lot of fun at Bigs and Nationals. I'm hoping the lighter Davidson can qualify. Between him ,Dean, Caffey, Warner, and Hoffman I don't know what mat I will be focused on.
My guess for placement is..
Dean.
Zack.
Caffey.
I'm not convinced that the top 4 B1G heavies (i.e. Parris, Kerk, Cass, Davidson) should also be the top 4 at nationals. Cohlton Schultz beat Kerk at nationals last year and Hendrickson only has a loss to Parris and has a ridiculous bonus rate this year (not against elite competition but including AJ Nevills 16-1 TF and a couple other top 20 bonus point wins). We'll see, I guess, but I think if Parris and Kerk are the top 2 in B1Gs, they should be the top 2 in NCAAs, too (esp. if Kerk wins), but there are other guys out there with an argument to be in the 3 or 4 range.
And beat Cassar once if I remember correctly...like 4 or 5 years ago
I suspect the top 4 seeds at nationals will all be B10.
Hendrickson has a better shot of breaking in, if he wins B12s over Elam, Schuyler, Gordon, Nevills, and Heindselman. Big if there. Also if the coaches ignore how badly he flamed out last year at nationals when he finally faced real competition (which they're supposed to do, but who knows).
IMO Schultz shouldn't pass Davison, since Davison's losses are all one-score losses to the top 3 and he won Midlands, where Schultz didn't make the finals. Also Scultz is the only Top 33 HWT in PAC 12, so his conference title won't help him.
But we'll see.
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Allred is underrated. I know he lost to Warner but he’s getting better every week.
Schultz didn't beat Kerkvliet at last year's NCAA's, that happened two years ago.
The criteria is;
● Head-to-head competition — 25%
● Quality wins — 20%
● Coaches ranking — 15%
● Results against common opponents — 10%
● RPI — 10%
● Qualifying event placement — 10%
● Win percentage — 10%
This is after the conference tourney's, so there's a good bit of wrestling to be had, with the results critical in all of the criteria. If the Big Ten goes Parris - Kerkvliet - Cassioppi, or Kerkvliet - Parris - Cassioppi, it appears those three are safe. Cassioppi doesn't have an RPI as high as any of the top guys, so it may be a factor, but a CR of 3 should be the difference.
Schultz has losses to Nevills and Pitzer, but also has good wins against Slavikouski, Fernandes, Schuyler and Elam, so his Quality wins will be solid. That and the fact that he wrestles in the PAC-12 may help him. I read E-J's comment above, but believe a 1st place P-12 finish places him on par with the Big Ten winner. No way it should be, but it has happened in the past. He has no HTH competition with Big Ten guys, nor results against common opponents (except for Davison, who beat Nevills, who in turn beat Schultz). Looks like CR, RPI and Win % will be the critical factors. It's very likely he'll have all those over Davison.
Hendrickson is a more likely candidate to break-up the Big Ten party. Winning the Big 12 could give him RPI, Win % and/or Qualifying event placement over the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place Big Ten finishers, though RPI could be close.
After looking at the data, I now feel it is unlikely the Big Ten will be top-4 at NCAA's.
You're right in that Schultz winning Pac 12 will help him with conference placement and win %.
It won't help him with quality wins. The B10 3-4 placers will have at least 2 more good wins in the conference tournament, where Schultz will have none.
How much those combine to affect his seed is in the iterative process that I'm far too lazy to model on my laptop.
Curious, could be for lack of knowledge, but curious I know you stated Pitzer and Fernandes but how do wins against an athlete who decides to RS and an athlete that has since become injured and out for the year affect rankings in terms of quality wins, wins against common opponents, RPI?
Are they still taken into consideration?
Counts in all categories except quality wins, since NCAA defines that as the 33 national qualifiers.
Process document here:
Curious on Aaron Brooks NCAA seed. I believe he only has 10 matches so he won’t have RPI going into NCAAs. Will that take him out of 1 seed? Or will the committee use common sense?
Looks like he is only PSU guy that won’t have RPI
Looks like he is only PSU guy that won’t have RPI
Common sense, lol. Math-based seeding exists because common sense seeding doesn't.
TL;DR version of the likely seeding:
- Brooks will almost certainly be seeded 3rd or lower behind the B12 champ (Keckeisen or Coleman) and the ACC champ (if Hidlay).
- If Keckeisen wins B12s, Brooks might still be seeded below Coleman. If Coleman wins B12s, then Brooks will likely be seeded ahead of Keckeisen.
- If Hidlay doesn't win ACCs, he'll likely be seeded below Brooks.
- Brooks might also be seeded below Munoz (I suspect this is unlikely, but it is conceivable without doing the 33-man simulation).
Not only will he lose out in RPI, he'll also have fewer quality wins (due to fewer matches). And he'll lose Common Opponents to Keckeisen and Munoz.
Without doing the seeding simulation (again, too lazy to model this on my laptop), I'd guess Brooks will get the 3 or 4.
And it'll matter exactly as much as when Cody Brewer got the 13 seed. If Cael or Brooks cared at all about the seed, that one more match to get RPI would've happened.
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El-Jefe's comments above are right on, as I understand the model and have used it in the past. The "Possible Point Splits" do seem to have an option for Conference Finish, Common Opponent and Win % that isn't listed. A 5/5 split seems possible for all three. RPI would be "possible" too, but incredibly unlikely given the amount of data that is crunched.
To clarify, Brooks won't split Common Opponents 5-5 with Keckeisen and Munoz. Both beat Coleman, and their losses were to opponents Brooks did not face. Brooks will lose that category 10-0 to them.
Brooks should score 10-0 or 5-5 against the other 30 qualifiers in the seeding sim.
It makes you wonder why Brooks has sat out as many matches as he has. Is there something going on that they are concerned about or just giving Ball a chance.
Brooks has the highest bonus rate at the weight nationally, at 78%. Only 4 other guys (Keckeisen, Romero, Pinto, and Feldkamp) are above 60%.
So nothing in his performance indicates any reason to be concerned.
All true but for a guy like him to only have 10 matches, it just seems off a little.
If AB wins out, he should be ahead of Munoz in the matrix.
The common opponent with Munoz should either be a tie or actually in Brooks' favor since Munoz lost to Finesilver and Pinto. If AB beats Pinto at Bug Tens, he will actually hold the edge there.
As between AB and Munoz, the criteria would be as follows if both win out:
Head to Head 12.5 each
Coaches 15 for AB
Common Either 5/5 or 10 for AB
Conference 5 for each
RPI 10 for Munoz unless AB picks up two matches this weekend
Win % 10 for Brooks 13-1 over 23-2
Quality Wins This will split 15/5 since each has beat at least 1 qualifier. Although Munoz has 10 more wins, Brooks has and may pick up even more higher ranked wins -- AB (Finesilver, Romero, Kane and Dow) vs. (Coleman, Ferriera, Acciardi, Wittlake and Montalvo) Both beat Soldano and Samuellson. Munoz won't have any chances to improve this because he's faced the entire conference. AB could get Pinto, Salazar, Malczewski, Assad, Connell and has Feldkamp this weekend.
Regarding TH, AB should split conference (5), HtH (12.5), common (5) but lose RPI (10) and % (10) as well as quality wins (5/15) So probably lose matrix 42.5/57.5.
Regarding PK, AB should split conference (5) and HtH (12.5) but lose RPI (10), %(10) and common (10). Quality wins will be close.
The common opponent with Munoz should either be a tie or actually in Brooks' favor since Munoz lost to Finesilver and Pinto. If AB beats Pinto at Bug Tens, he will actually hold the edge there.
As between AB and Munoz, the criteria would be as follows if both win out:
Head to Head 12.5 each
Coaches 15 for AB
Common Either 5/5 or 10 for AB
Conference 5 for each
RPI 10 for Munoz unless AB picks up two matches this weekend
Win % 10 for Brooks 13-1 over 23-2
Quality Wins This will split 15/5 since each has beat at least 1 qualifier. Although Munoz has 10 more wins, Brooks has and may pick up even more higher ranked wins -- AB (Finesilver, Romero, Kane and Dow) vs. (Coleman, Ferriera, Acciardi, Wittlake and Montalvo) Both beat Soldano and Samuellson. Munoz won't have any chances to improve this because he's faced the entire conference. AB could get Pinto, Salazar, Malczewski, Assad, Connell and has Feldkamp this weekend.
Regarding TH, AB should split conference (5), HtH (12.5), common (5) but lose RPI (10) and % (10) as well as quality wins (5/15) So probably lose matrix 42.5/57.5.
Regarding PK, AB should split conference (5) and HtH (12.5) but lose RPI (10), %(10) and common (10). Quality wins will be close.
Good catch on Munoz. I somehow missed his loss to Finesilver.
As an aside, this is an example of where I wish NCAA used actual math instead of thresholds for criteria scoring.
Meaning: 2-1 vs. 1-2 really isn't sufficient to score that category 10-0. But one wrestler has a better record, so 5-5 isn't right either. It should be scored 6.7-3.3 -- and similar for other categories.
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