Roar's Annual Big Ten Pre-Pre-Seeds

[RoarLions1]

MOST DIFFICULT YEAR EVER! The move from 9 conference duals to 8, given that there are 13 possible opponents, means the MOST dual meet opponents a wrestler will get is about 60% of the conference. On top of that, the conference scheduling model changed and we have two sets (East & West, 7 wrestlers each) of round robin bouts, plus 2 duals from the opposing division. Last factor is the limited action that some wrestlers saw, not unusual, but with the other challenges above, it compounds the seeding challenges even more.

I could make decisions in the past based on similar competition between enough wrestlers to have, at a minimum, a few comparative bouts. Those comparative bouts are now far less frequent, as the crossover to a separate division limits is limiting. I will do my best with a marginal situation delivered by the Big Ten. Frankly, the Big Ten committee that does the seeding will have the same challenge I have. I just hope they don’t use record alone and make a bigger mess of things .

YES, I KNOW THE SEASON ISN’T OVER YET. Iowa and Nebraska meet next week as do Purdue and Northwestern. Both will have an impact on my seedings. While most of the work is done, I am waiting for those two duals to finish my effort. In the meanwhile, I've picked a weight class less likely to be impacted by those duals (174) to get this party started. The remaining weight classes will be released starting Saturday, Feb. 19.

Enjoy!

165
#1 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#2 Alex Marinelli (IOWA)
#3 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#4 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#5 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#6 Wilson (NEB)
#7 Lohrey (PUR)
#8 Danny Braunagel (ILL)
#9 Creighton Edsell (PSU)
#10 C Carlson (MINN)
#11 A Clark (RUT)
#T-12 Casper McIntosh (IND)
#T-12 D Ferrante (NU)
#14 G Bell (MD)

It’s #1 Kharchla (tOSU) and #2 Marinelli (IOWA), with the Buckeye owning a HTH win over the Hawkeye. Hamiti is the clear #3 seed, his only loss a HTH bout with Marinelli. From there, this weight class gets ugly. Brady Berge (PSU) would have been in the mix here, with wins over Amine and Fish, but he is now going 157 for the Lions. So my #4 is Amine (MICH) who owns a HTH win over #5 Fish (MSU). The next three got on that endless running merry-go-round, as #6 Wilson (NEB) beat #7 Lohrey (PUR), and Lohrey beat #8 Braunagel (ILL), while Braunagel beat Wilson. Of these three, Wilson has the best “other” win, vs #4 Amine, so he jumps ahead of the other two. #7 Lohrey owns the HTH vs #8 Braunagel that that seals it for the next two seeds. Here’s where I’ll insert #9 Edsell (PSU). As noted above, at 4-0 one might seed him higher (and the Big Ten might), but the record alone just does not justify it, as his wins are against three back-ups and the #14 seed. I do believe the Lion will out-perform his seed.

#10 Carlson (MINN) has a solid win over #7 Wilson, but a plethora of losses that prevent him from being higher. The remaining four seeds can be viewed above.

 

[mcpat]

MOST DIFFICULT YEAR EVER! The move from 9 conference duals to 8, given that there are 13 possible opponents, means the MOST dual meet opponents a wrestler will get is about 60% of the conference. On top of that, the conference scheduling model changed and we have two sets (East & West, 7 wrestlers each) of round robin bouts, plus 2 duals from the opposing division. Last factor is the limited action that some wrestlers saw, not unusual, but with the other challenges above, it compounds the seeding challenges even more.

I could make decisions in the past based on similar competition between enough wrestlers to have, at a minimum, a few comparative bouts. Those comparative bouts are now far less frequent, as the crossover to a separate division limits is limiting. I will do my best with a marginal situation delivered by the Big Ten. Frankly, the Big Ten committee that does the seeding will have the same challenge I have. I just hope they don’t use record alone and make a bigger mess of things .

YES, I KNOW THE SEASON ISN’T OVER YET. Iowa and Nebraska meet next week as do Purdue and Northwestern. Both will have an impact on my seedings. While most of the work is done, I am waiting for those two duals to finish my effort. In the meanwhile, I've picked a weight class less likely to be impacted by those duals (174) to get this party started. The remaining weight classes will be released starting Saturday, Feb. 19.

Enjoy!

165
#1 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#2 Alex Marinelli (IOWA)
#3 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#4 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#5 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#6 Wilson (NEB)
#7 Lohrey (PUR)
#8 Danny Braunagel (ILL)
#9 Creighton Edsell (PSU)
#10 C Carlson (MINN)
#11 A Clark (RUT)
#T-12 Casper McIntosh (IND)
#T-12 D Ferrante (NU)
#14 G Bell (MD)

It’s #1 Kharchla (tOSU) and #2 Marinelli (IOWA), with the Buckeye owning a HTH win over the Hawkeye. Hamiti is the clear #3 seed, his only loss a HTH bout with Marinelli. From there, this weight class gets ugly. I’d go Berge (PSU) at #4, with wins over Fish and Amine despite an abbreviated season, though I’ll stay with the guy in the Coaches Ranking - Creighton Edsell (PSU). At 4-0 in Big Ten bouts, Edsell’s wins are against three back-ups and the #14 seed, so he can’t be as high as Berge would be imo.

So my #4 is Amine (MICH) who owns a HTH win over #5 Fish (MSU). The next three got on that endless running merry-go-round, as #6 Wilson (NEB) beat #7 Lohrey (PUR), and Lohrey beat #8 Braunagel (ILL), while Braunagel beat Wilson. Of these three, Wilson has the best “other” win, vs #4 Amine, so he jumps ahead of the other two. #7 Lohrey owns the HTH vs #8 Braunagel so that seals it for the next two seeds. Here’s where I’ll insert #9 Edsell (PSU). As noted above, at 4-0 one might seed him higher (and the Big Ten might), but the resume just does not justify it. If he goes, I do believe the Lion will out-perform his seed.

#10 Carlson (MINN) has a solid win over #7 Wilson, but a plethora of losses that prevent him from being higher. The remaining four seeds can be viewed above.

On HR, they said only Big Ten DUAL results can be used for seeding. Can anyone confirm or contradict?

 

[jbkeller72]

On HR, they said only Big Ten DUAL results can be used for seeding. Can anyone confirm or contradict?

I seem to remember reading in the past that the B1G doesn’t really have a seeding criteria

 

[Maddog]

On HR, they said only Big Ten DUAL results can be used for seeding. Can anyone confirm or contradict?

Think this is generally true, but for a tiebreaker they may also use H2H bouts in tournaments, such as two of McKee’s wins over Ayala.

 

[El-Jefe]

On HR, they said only Big Ten DUAL results can be used for seeding. Can anyone confirm or contradict?

That may have been true when it really was B10/B11 and the teams faced every opponent or all but 1.

Now with it being B14 and max 8 duals -- thus missing min 5 opponents -- that makes little sense. Not how we would have handled it.

Then again B10 doesn't always make sense.

 

[RoarLions1]

To mcpat,
As I understand it, and I've been doing this since before Cael arrived, the conference duals carry more weight, and out of conference action is used as tie-breakers.

With less real data than ever before, I would use the non-conference results in that vein, but tbh even the out of conference results were minimal this year.

 

[dunkej01]

On HR, they said only Big Ten DUAL results can be used for seeding. Can anyone confirm or contradict?

Come back to Roars picks after the seeds are released. I bet he is above 83% correct.

 

[RoarLions1]

Come back to Roars picks after the seeds are released. I bet he is above 83% correct.

Ha, EVERYTHING IS 83%, so there's that. Seriously, these are the hardest seedings EVER. I'm just happy two or three people read my stuff.

 

[slicone]

The coaches rank how they see fit. There are no rules or criteria each coach gets a form with how many to rank at each weight either top 8 or rank the whole weight(this will depend on Auto Qualifiers). They can give weight to duels, tournaments or nothing at all

After all the coaches return their ballots they add them up and release the pre seeds

There is a process to protest at the coaches meeting but got to be within x points and can only move 1 spot (I think) Not much has moved in the last few of these.

So those pre seeds will pretty much be the seeds (and yes a coach can rank all their wrestlers #1 if they want)

It may sound weird but wisdom of the crowd works pretty well, this tournament has very little seeding controversies. Unlike the Ncaas

 

[mcpat]

MOST DIFFICULT YEAR EVER! The move from 9 conference duals to 8, given that there are 13 possible opponents, means the MOST dual meet opponents a wrestler will get is about 60% of the conference. On top of that, the conference scheduling model changed and we have two sets (East & West, 7 wrestlers each) of round robin bouts, plus 2 duals from the opposing division. Last factor is the limited action that some wrestlers saw, not unusual, but with the other challenges above, it compounds the seeding challenges even more.

I could make decisions in the past based on similar competition between enough wrestlers to have, at a minimum, a few comparative bouts. Those comparative bouts are now far less frequent, as the crossover to a separate division limits is limiting. I will do my best with a marginal situation delivered by the Big Ten. Frankly, the Big Ten committee that does the seeding will have the same challenge I have. I just hope they don’t use record alone and make a bigger mess of things .

YES, I KNOW THE SEASON ISN’T OVER YET. Iowa and Nebraska meet next week as do Purdue and Northwestern. Both will have an impact on my seedings. While most of the work is done, I am waiting for those two duals to finish my effort. In the meanwhile, I've picked a weight class less likely to be impacted by those duals (174) to get this party started. The remaining weight classes will be released starting Saturday, Feb. 19.

Enjoy!

165
#1 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#2 Alex Marinelli (IOWA)
#3 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#4 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#5 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#6 Wilson (NEB)
#7 Lohrey (PUR)
#8 Danny Braunagel (ILL)
#9 Creighton Edsell (PSU)
#10 C Carlson (MINN)
#11 A Clark (RUT)
#T-12 Casper McIntosh (IND)
#T-12 D Ferrante (NU)
#14 G Bell (MD)

It’s #1 Kharchla (tOSU) and #2 Marinelli (IOWA), with the Buckeye owning a HTH win over the Hawkeye. Hamiti is the clear #3 seed, his only loss a HTH bout with Marinelli. From there, this weight class gets ugly. I’d go Berge (PSU) at #4, with wins over Fish and Amine despite an abbreviated season, though I’ll stay with the guy in the Coaches Ranking - Creighton Edsell (PSU). At 4-0 in Big Ten bouts, Edsell’s wins are against three back-ups and the #14 seed, so he can’t be as high as Berge would be imo.

So my #4 is Amine (MICH) who owns a HTH win over #5 Fish (MSU). The next three got on that endless running merry-go-round, as #6 Wilson (NEB) beat #7 Lohrey (PUR), and Lohrey beat #8 Braunagel (ILL), while Braunagel beat Wilson. Of these three, Wilson has the best “other” win, vs #4 Amine, so he jumps ahead of the other two. #7 Lohrey owns the HTH vs #8 Braunagel so that seals it for the next two seeds. Here’s where I’ll insert #9 Edsell (PSU). As noted above, at 4-0 one might seed him higher (and the Big Ten might), but the resume just does not justify it. If he goes, I do believe the Lion will out-perform his seed.

#10 Carlson (MINN) has a solid win over #7 Wilson, but a plethora of losses that prevent him from being higher. The remaining four seeds can be viewed above.

Any thoughts on how many allocations to expect? (A great answer would be at least 9.)

 

[The Kid Twist]

MOST DIFFICULT YEAR EVER! The move from 9 conference duals to 8, given that there are 13 possible opponents, means the MOST dual meet opponents a wrestler will get is about 60% of the conference. On top of that, the conference scheduling model changed and we have two sets (East & West, 7 wrestlers each) of round robin bouts, plus 2 duals from the opposing division. Last factor is the limited action that some wrestlers saw, not unusual, but with the other challenges above, it compounds the seeding challenges even more.

I could make decisions in the past based on similar competition between enough wrestlers to have, at a minimum, a few comparative bouts. Those comparative bouts are now far less frequent, as the crossover to a separate division limits is limiting. I will do my best with a marginal situation delivered by the Big Ten. Frankly, the Big Ten committee that does the seeding will have the same challenge I have. I just hope they don’t use record alone and make a bigger mess of things .

YES, I KNOW THE SEASON ISN’T OVER YET. Iowa and Nebraska meet next week as do Purdue and Northwestern. Both will have an impact on my seedings. While most of the work is done, I am waiting for those two duals to finish my effort. In the meanwhile, I've picked a weight class less likely to be impacted by those duals (174) to get this party started. The remaining weight classes will be released starting Saturday, Feb. 19.

Enjoy!

165
#1 Carson Kharchla (tOSU)
#2 Alex Marinelli (IOWA)
#3 Dean Hamiti (WIS)
#4 Cameron Amine (MICH)
#5 Caleb Fish (MSU)
#6 Wilson (NEB)
#7 Lohrey (PUR)
#8 Danny Braunagel (ILL)
#9 Creighton Edsell (PSU)
#10 C Carlson (MINN)
#11 A Clark (RUT)
#T-12 Casper McIntosh (IND)
#T-12 D Ferrante (NU)
#14 G Bell (MD)

It’s #1 Kharchla (tOSU) and #2 Marinelli (IOWA), with the Buckeye owning a HTH win over the Hawkeye. Hamiti is the clear #3 seed, his only loss a HTH bout with Marinelli. From there, this weight class gets ugly. I’d go Berge (PSU) at #4, with wins over Fish and Amine despite an abbreviated season, though I’ll stay with the guy in the Coaches Ranking - Creighton Edsell (PSU). At 4-0 in Big Ten bouts, Edsell’s wins are against three back-ups and the #14 seed, so he can’t be as high as Berge would be imo.

So my #4 is Amine (MICH) who owns a HTH win over #5 Fish (MSU). The next three got on that endless running merry-go-round, as #6 Wilson (NEB) beat #7 Lohrey (PUR), and Lohrey beat #8 Braunagel (ILL), while Braunagel beat Wilson. Of these three, Wilson has the best “other” win, vs #4 Amine, so he jumps ahead of the other two. #7 Lohrey owns the HTH vs #8 Braunagel so that seals it for the next two seeds. Here’s where I’ll insert #9 Edsell (PSU). As noted above, at 4-0 one might seed him higher (and the Big Ten might), but the resume just does not justify it. If he goes, I do believe the Lion will out-perform his seed.

#10 Carlson (MINN) has a solid win over #7 Wilson, but a plethora of losses that prevent him from being higher. The remaining four seeds can be viewed above.

Excellent use of the word plethora in a sentence! There needs to be more use of plethora and skullduggery in common speech!

 

[RoarLions1]

Any thoughts on how many allocations to expect? (A great answer would be at least 9.)

I'm guessing 7-8 @ 165.

 

[bwfight]

Excellent use of the word plethora in a sentence! There needs to be more use of plethora and skullduggery in common speech!

And if you can work in conundrum and enigma occasionally, you have a scrumptious word salad with nectar dressing….ambrosia 🥸

 

[nitlion6]

That may have been true when it really was B10/B11 and the teams faced every opponent or all but 1.

Now with it being B14 and max 8 duals -- thus missing min 5 opponents -- that makes little sense. Not how we would have handled it.

Then again B10 doesn't always make sense.

Someone needs to call Bo and or Woody and ask how they would like it done.

 

[RoarLions1]

One more dual, Iowa vs Nebraska on 2/20, but I do not see the bout affecting my seeds.

125
#1 Nick Suriano (MICH)
#2 Eric Barnett (WIS)
#3 Drew Hildebrandt (PSU)
#4 Devin Schroder (PUR)
#5 Malik Heinselman (tOSU)
#6 Michael DeAugustino (NU)
#7 Patrick McKee (MINN)
#8 Drake Ayala (IOWA)
#9 Dylan Shawver (RUT)
#10 Tristan Lujan (MSU)
#11 Justin Cardini (ILL)
#12 Jacob Moran (IND)
#13 Jeremiah Reno (NEB)
#14 Tommy Capul (MD)

Top seed is an easy choice, with #1 Suriano (RUT) the only unbeaten in the conference. Next is a lot tougher. Round and round we go with Barnett (WIS) beating Schroder (PUR), Schroder beating DeAugustino (NU), and DeAugustino beating Barnett. Add to the mix Hildebrandt (PSU), who only has one loss (to Suriano), but wrestled none of the top guys in the West Division. Then there’s Ayala (IOWA) who beat both DeAugustino and Schroder, but has losses to McKee (actually 3x) and Heinselman (tOSU). It’s a bit of a mess for seeding. I’m going #2 Barnett, with better wins than #3 Hildebrandt, and frankly could see Hildebrandt at #4 after Schroder’s great win vs DeAugustino on 2/19. Still, I’ll go #4 Schroder.

The next several are similarly close. #5 Heinselman beat Ayala, and only has losses to Suriano and Hildebrandt. Here’s where I got stuck a little. What do you do with Ayala, who has victories over my #4 and #6 seeds, but lost to my #5 and #8 seeds, while wrestling an abbreviated schedule due to injury. Tough call. The DeAugustino wins HTH against #2 Barnett and #8 McKee gave him the edge over Ayala despite the HTH loss. We can’t always use HTH, that’s a fact. So, it’s #6 DeAugustino. #8 Ayala drops behind #7 McKee (MINN) because of the 3 HTH losses to the Golden Gopher. While McKee’s record is not great on the surface, all of his losses are to guys in front of him. #9 Shawver (RUT) is the easy next seed, with losses to four of the top five seeds, but no wins worth mentioning. There is a significant drop-off for the final 5 seeds, which can be seen above.

 

[RoarLions1]

285
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN)
#2 Tony Cassioppi (IOWA)
#3 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU)
#4 Mason Parris (MICH)
#5 Lucas Davison (NU)
#6 Tate Orndorff (tOSU)
#7 Christian Lance (NEB)
#8 Trent Hillger (WIS)
#9 Luke Luffman (ILL)
#10 Jacob Bullock (IND)
#11 Boone McDermott (RUT)
#12 Michael Woulfe (PUR)
#13 Brad Wilton (MSU)
#14 Zach Schrader (MD)

The easiest weight class to seed, bar none. #1 Steveson (MINN) is not just on a planet all his own, he’s in a solar system all his own. It’s REAL EASY FOR THE NEXT THREE SEEDS (listen in, Big Ten). #2 Cassioppi (IOWA) has a HTH win over #3 Kerkvliet (PSU), while Kerkvliet owns a HTH win over #4 Parris (MICH). Easy peasy!

#5 Davison only lost to guys seeded higher, and has a HTH win over #7 Lance (NEB) and #8 Hillger (WIS). I slid #6 Orndorff (tOSU) just after Davison, but I could see him anywhere from #6 to #8. He has four losses, to the top four seeds and nothing resembling a good win, while Davison, Lance, and Hillger have several bouts among each other. This was the toughest stretch of the heavyweight seeding, but only because I wasn’t sure exactly where to insert Orndorff, as he did not wrestle Davison, Lance or Hillger (all from the West Division).

#7 Lance beat #8 Hillger HTH, hence the higher seed. From there, the drop-off is substantial. #9 Luffman (ILL) is the logical choice for the next seed, beating three of the five guys seeded below him. The remaining five seeds can be seen above.

 

[RoarLions1]

Another weight unlikely to be impacted by tonight's Iowa vs Nebraska dual, the final dual of the Big Ten regular season.

133
#1 Roman Bravo-Young (PSU)
#2 Lucas Byrd (ILL)
#3 Austin DeSanto (IOWA)
#4 Rayvon Foley (MSU)
#5 Dylan Ragusin (MICH)
#6 Brock Hudkins (IND)
#7 Chris Cannon (NU)
#8 Matt Ramos (PUR)
#9 Joey Olivieri (RUT)
#10 Dominick Serrano (NEB
#11 Kyle Burwick (WIS)
#12 King Sandoval (MD)
#13 Jake Gliva (MINN)
#14 Dylan Koontz (tOSU)

Two undefeated guys, so something has to give. It's an easy pick, #1 Bravo-Young (PSU) and #2 Lucas Byrd (ILL). Top guy stays at the top until they are beaten, plus Bravo-Young has beaten #3 DeSanto (IOWA), while Byrd has missed meeting #'s 1, 3, and 4. #3 DeSanto missed part of the season, and only has wins vs guys at the bottom of my seedings, but I can't in good conscience put him anywhere else. Will the Big Ten place DeSanto #2? Doubt it, but if they do, it is still 2 vs 3 in the semifinals, so Byrd vs DeSanto should happen then.

#4 Foley (MSU) was heading towards my #7 seed until his last two wins. After a very, very weak schedule and a loss to #6 Hudkins (IND), he's beaten #5 Ragusin (MICH) and #7 Cannon (NU) his past two duals. #5 Ragusin has HTH wins vs #6 Hudkins and #7 Cannon, so he's the easy next seed. Hudkins is the only guy to defeat Foley this season, so he has a better win than Cannon, squeezing into the #6 seed. I'm assuming that Cannon will go for NU in the post-season, despite not wrestling Saturday vs Purdue (Vinci went for the Wildcats).

There appears to be a bit of separation here. It is #8 Ramos (PUR) for me next, followed by #9 Olivieri (RUT), though the #9 seed for Olivieri is tenuous. His best win is vs #11 Burwick (WIS). Next it is #10 Serrano (NEB) who also owns a win vs Burwick HTH. The last three can be seen above.

 

[RoarLions1]

141
#1 Nick Lee (PSU)
#2 Sebastian Rivera (RUT)
#3 Jaydin Eierman (IOWA)
#4 Chad Red (NEB)
#5 Steven Micic (MICH)
#6 Dylan D’Emilio (tOSU)
#7 Jake Bergeland (MINN)
#8 Dylan Duncan (ILL)
#9 Frankie Tal-Shahar (NU)
#10 Joseph Zargo (WIS)
#11 Parker Filius (PUR)
#12 Cayden Rooks (IND)
#13 Matt Santos (MSU)
#14 Danny Bertoni (MD)

A second weight class with two undefeated, quality guys at the top. Again it is the Penn Stater (#1 Nick Lee) getting the nod for #1, for similar reasons to those at 133, Lee is top dog until he loses. #2 Rivera (RUT) has been uber-impressive this season, with bonus points in all but one bout this season (it wasn't a Big Ten dual), but his schedule has been weak. #3 Eierman (IOWA) is easily my third seed, beating #4 Red (NEB) HTH. Red has a HTH win over my #5 Micic (MICH). To be honest, Micic was going to be lower until both #7 Bergeland (MINN), who owns a win against Micic, and #8 Duncan (ILL) who started the conference duals 3-0, both took recent losses. Here's where it gets tricky as we have a couple of guys that beat up on each other. I'll go #6 D'Emilio (tOSU) after a solid win HTH vs #7 Bergeland this past weekend. #8 Duncan gets the nod over #9 Tal-Shahar, beating him HTH, while Tal-Shahar beat #11 Filius (PUR) HTH.

#10 Zargo (WIS) slips in front of Filius, beating him HTH. Here’s a case where record doesn’t mean much. Filius is 5-3, but his wins are against three back-ups and two guys behind him. #9 Tal-Shahar beat #10 Zargo so that’s the reasoning at 9/10. Zargo has had an up-and-down season, beating a guy in front of him in these seedings (Duncan), but the loss to Tal-Shahar sealed his seed. You can see the remaining three seeds above.

 

[RoarLions1]

149
#1 Sammy Sasso (tOSU)
#2 Austin Gomez (WIS)
#3 Ridge Lovett (NEB)
#4 Max Murin (IOWA)
#5 Mike Van Brill (RUT)
#6 Yahya Thomes (NU)
#7 Beau Bartlett (PSU)
#8 Christian Kanzler (ILL)
#9 Graham Rooks (IND)
#10 Kanen Storr (MICH)
#11 Michael North (MD)
#12 Michael Blockus (MINN)
#13 Peyton Omania (MSU)
#14 Trey Kruse or Alec White (PUR)

149 is the third weight class in a row with two quality undefeated guys at the top. #1 Sasso (tOSU) is my call over #2 Gomez (WIS), as he has been the top dog at this weight class and will remain so until beaten. Gomez is a newcomer to the Big Ten, transferring from Iowa State and going up two weight classes. He’s earned his stripes by going undefeated, but it is not enough to overtake Sasso. The next seed was tough as both #3 Lovett (NEB) and #4 Murin (IOWA) have similar resumes, both beating my #6 Thomas (NU) while only losing to Sasso (Murin lost to him) or Gomez (Lovett lost to him). I could see it either way, though I’m giving the nod to Lovett, having wrestled in the Nebraska vs Iowa dual on 2/20, while Murin missed his second Big Ten dual in a row (WIS and NEB). #5 Van Brill slides uncomfortably into the next seed, losing only to Sasso and Gomez, and with #7 Bartlett (PSU) his best win. #6 Thomas gets the next seed, another tenuous one with no good wins, but also no bad losses (Gomez, Murin, Lovett). As said, it’s #7 Bartlett next, as he has a HTH win over #9 Rooks (IND), with #8 Kanzler (ILL) also owning a HTH win vs Rooks. .

What does one do with Storr (MINN)? Injured at the Cliff Keen Invitational (12/3/21), he didn’t wrestle again until 2/6/22, and has only two Big Ten bouts under his belt, a win vs #13 Omania, and a loss to #8 Rooks. I’ll insert him at #10, because, well, I can . The remaining four seeds can be seen above.

 

[RoarLions1]

157
#1 Ryan Deakin (NU)
#2 Will Lewan (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Young (IOWA)
#4 Kendall Coleman (PUR)
#5 Peyton Robb (NEB)
#6 Garrett Model (WIS)
#7 Robert Kanniard (RUT)
#8 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#9 Brady Berge (PSU)
#10 Isaac Wilcox (tOSU)
#11 Joe Roberts (ILL)
#12 Jonathon Kervin (IND)
#13 Conner Decker (MD)
#14 Tim Stapleton (MINN)

#1 Deakin (NU) stands a bit taller in this weight class, as he’s the only undefeated guy left. #2 Lewan (MICH) is my next seed, but there’s not much separating #2 and #3. Lewan lost HTH to Brayton Lee (MINN) this season, as did Young (IOWA). Both beat #5 Robb (NEB). This is as close as it gets when looking at resumes. With no basis, I’ll guess it is #2 Lewan and #3 Young. In the long run, #2 meets #3 in the semis, so if both guys get there, it can be settled in Lincoln and used for seeding purposes at NCAA’s.

Here’s where I’ll add a story that breaks one’s heart. Brayton Lee, Minnesota’s stud at 157 had a serious injury at the Ohio State dual, and will miss the post-season. Lee beat Lewan, Young, Coleman and Robb this season and was heading toward a #2 seed. Injuries stink!

It’s #4 Coleman (PUR) next. In an abbreviated season Coleman has wins over #6 Model and #8 Saldate (MSU). Next is a bit of a cluster. Kanniard (RUT) has a great record but hasn’t wrestled any of the top half. Model handed Kanniard his only loss, but also beat Brayton Lee while losing to Robb (NEB). Robb beat Model, only losing to the top three seeds. Saldate has a decent record, only losing to three of the top five. So, despite the significant differences in records (which should NOT drive the seeds!), it is #5 Robb, #6 Model, #7 Kanniard, #8 Saldate. Just guessing…the Big Ten will have it differently. In fact, these four are close and interchangeable.

There is a significant drop-off to the next six, at least by their records. No one has more than one conference win. But that’s not the story here, Brady Berge is. After wrestling at 165 for what is an abbreviated season, he descended to 157, getting there for the final PSU dual of the season, which was not a Big Ten dual. He has the pedigree, but his record is 0-0 in conference. I honestly can’t place him anywhere but #9, given his situation and the talent behind him. One data point, rough as it is, is that Terrell Barraclough (PSU) beat #10 Wilcox (tOSU) and #13 Decker (MD), and PSU chose Berge over Barraclough. It’s a loose use of the transitive property, but what else is there. Placing the Lion at #13 or #14 seems more silly, so we’ll see. Regardless, to make the NCAA Championships, Berge MUST beat several in front of him.

You can see the remaining five seeds above.

 

[RoarLions1]

174
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU)
#2 Logan Massa (MICH)
#3 Mikey Labriola (NEB)
#4 Michael Kemerer (IOWA)
#5 Ethan Smith (tOSU)
#6 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN)
#7 Gerrit Nijenhuis (PUR)
#8 DJ Shannon (ILL)
#9 Andrew McNally (WIS)
#10 Dominic Solis (MD)
#11 Troy Fisher (NU)
#12 Nicholas South (IND)
#13 Conner O’Neill (RUT)
#14 Nate Jimenez (MSU)

With Labriola (NEB) beating Kemerer (IOWA) in the final dual of the season, this weight class was thrown into a bit of chaos. The easy #2 or #3 seed lost to a guy (Labriola) I originally had at #5. REWORK! RE-ANALYZE! REWRITE! Throw away a couple hours work and start anew 😂 🤪☹️.

Starocci (PSU) is still #1, beating Massa and Kemerer HTH, but missing Smith and Labriola at the duals. It’s an easy pick, as is #2 Massa (MICH), only losing to Starocci HTH. Next couple, not so easy! The Big Ten does not use a seeding model such as the NCAA Committee, so this could go any of several ways. HTH wins are still the #1 criterion for me, so I’d feel good about placing Labriola in front of Kemerer, except that Labriola also lost to #7 Nijenhuis, a wrestler that is 4-3 in the conference and has a loss to #12 South! I love wrestling!! The HTH win, Labriola over Kemerer, carries more weight than Labriola’s bad loss, so I’ll go #3 Labriola over #4 Kemerer.

#5 Smith (tOSU) lost HTH vs #2 Massa and #4 Kemerer in Big Ten action, and #3 Labriola at the Cliff Keen, rounding out the top five. #6 O’Rielly (MINN) has the best resume of the remaining guys, and owns a HTH win vs #7 Nijenhuis (PUR).

Frankly, from #7 through #11, it gets really challenging as no one stands out. #7 Nijenhuis (PUR) has a mixed bag of results, beating Labriola but also losing to South (IND). Still, I’ll give credit for the Labriola win as the best win from among the next group of wrestlers. Nijenhuis also won HTH vs #9 McNally. #8 Shannon (ILL) also beat #9 McNally (WIS) HTH, so the Wisconsin wrestler ends up well below what anyone expected imo. #10 Solis (MD) has wins vs #11 Fisher (NU) and #12 South (IND), with O’Neill and Jimenez rounding out the seeds. I know this is a bit convoluted. Several bouts were not noted, such as Shannon losing to Fisher, but the circular nature of wins and losses between wrestlers makes these reviews imperfect.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

174
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU)
#2 Logan Massa (MICH)
#3 Mikey Labriola (NEB)
#4 Michael Kemerer (IOWA)
#5 Ethan Smith (tOSU)
#6 Bailee O’Reilly (MINN)
#7 Gerrit Nijenhuis (PUR)
#8 DJ Shannon (ILL)
#9 Andrew McNally (WIS)
#10 Dominic Solis (MD)
#11 Troy Fisher (NU)
#12 Nicholas South (IND)
#13 Conner O’Neill (RUT)
#14 Nate Jimenez (MSU)

With Labriola (NEB) beating Kemerer (IOWA) in the final dual of the season, this weight class was thrown into a bit of chaos. The easy #2 or #3 seed lost to a guy (Labriola) I originally had at #5. REWORK! RE-ANALYZE! REWRITE! Throw away a couple hours work and start anew 😂 🤪☹️.

Starocci (PSU) is still #1, beating Massa and Kemerer HTH, but missing Smith and Labriola at the duals. It’s an easy pick, as is #2 Massa (MICH), only losing to Starocci HTH. Next couple, not so easy! The Big Ten does not use a seeding model such as the NCAA Committee, so this could go any of several ways. HTH wins are still the #1 criterion for me, so I’d feel good about placing Labriola in front of Kemerer, except that Labriola also lost to #7 Nijenhuis, a wrestler that is 4-3 in the conference and has a loss to #12 South! I love wrestling!! The HTH win, Labriola over Kemerer, carries more weight than Labriola’s bad loss, so I’ll go #3 Labriola over #4 Kemerer.

#5 Smith (tOSU) lost HTH vs #2 Massa and #4 Kemerer in Big Ten action, and #3 Labriola at the Cliff Keen, rounding out the top five. #6 O’Rielly (MINN) has the best resume of the remaining guys, and owns a HTH win vs #7 Nijenhuis (PUR).

Frankly, from #7 through #11, it gets really challenging as no one stands out. #7 Nijenhuis (PUR) has a mixed bag of results, beating Labriola but also losing to South (IND). Still, I’ll give credit for the Labriola win as the best win from among the next group of wrestlers. Nijenhuis also won HTH vs #9 McNally. #8 Shannon (ILL) also beat #9 McNally (WIS) HTH, so the Wisconsin wrestler ends up well below what anyone expected imo. #10 Solis (MD) has wins vs #11 Fisher (NU) and #12 South (IND), with O’Neill and Jimenez rounding out the seeds. I know this is a bit convoluted. Several bouts were not noted, such as Shannon losing to Fisher, but the circular nature of wins and losses between wrestlers makes these reviews imperfect.

Eagly award to Roar! I love the stats

 

[El-Jefe]

157
#1 Ryan Deakin (NU)
#2 Will Lewan (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Young (IOWA)
#4 Kendall Coleman (PUR)
#5 Peyton Robb (NEB)
#6 Garrett Model (WIS)
#7 Robert Kanniard (RUT)
#8 Chase Saldate (MSU)
#9 Brady Berge (PSU)
#10 Isaac Wilcox (tOSU)
#11 Joe Roberts (ILL)
#12 Jonathon Kervin (IND)
#13 Conner Decker (MD)
#14 Tim Stapleton (MINN)

I'd far rather see Berge at 10 or 11 than 9.

Am expecting 6 pre-allocations. If so, then Berge qualifies for nationals by reaching B10 semis -- and Anybody But Deakin in the quarters helps greatly.

 

[RoarLions1]

184
#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU)
#2 Myles Amine (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU)
#4 Abe Assad (IOWA)
#5 Isaiah Salazar (MINN)
#6 Lane Malczewski (MSU)
#7 Taylor Venz (NEB)
#8 Chris Weiler (WIS)
#9 Zach Braunagel (ILL)
#10 Kyle Cochran (MD)
#11 Donnell Washington (IND)
#12 John Poznanski (RUT)
#13 Max Lyon (PUR)
#14 Jon Halvorson or Jack Jessen (NU)

Standing atop the seeding at 184 after a HTH regular season win vs #2 Amine (MICH) is #1 Brooks (PSU). Amine has a HTH win vs #3 Romero, which is Romero’s only loss. So far, so good. Even my #4 seed (Assad, IOWA) WAS solid until he was pinned by Venz (NEB) in the final dual of the year, so I’m having to rework these seeds too (I also reworked 174).

Sooooo, after re-working a bit, the Venz pin helped Venz more than it hurt Assad, when one considers all other facts. I’m leaving Assad at #4. #5 Salazar (MINN) doesn’t get #4, despite a 4-1 conference record, as his loss is to Lyon (PUR), and his best wins are Braunagel and Weiler. Assad beat both of those guys AND beat Lyon. #6 Malczewski doesn’t move up, as in an unremarkable season he only has decent wins (Cochran, Poznanski, Lyon, all behind him) plus a loss to Washington (IND). #’s 4, 5, and 6 are very close. The Big Ten could move Malczewski in front of Salazar as Salazar wrestled an abbreviated schedule.

What does one do with Venz? A great win against Assad is overshadowed by losses to Lyon and Braunagel, which combined outweigh the win. I’m moving Venz into #7, as he has a HTH win vs my #8, Weiler (WIS). #9 Braunagel (ILL) split his Bit Ten bouts 4-4, beating Venz, and losing HTH to #8 Weiler. At #10 is Cochran (MD). His final bout win, vs Poznanski (RUT) got the Southern Scuffle Champ this seed, as with five conference losses he was heading towards #10 or lower.

Washington lost HTH to Cochran, so he’s #110. The second half of 184 (#’s 8 through 13) are in my opinion the strongest back end of any weight class in the Big Ten. All but my #14 appears to have a shot at making the big dance at the conference tourney! Despite his recent woes, losing his last four conference bouts is #12 Poznanski (RUT). Then it’s #13 Lyon (PUR) before #14 Halvorson/Jessen. Venz and Poznanski have the most surprising resumes, both finishing as AA’s once in their careers.

 

[GantryZ]

Poznanski really is a mystery - 4th last year as a true freshman, starts off 13-0 and now is 3-4 in his last 7 matches. Something has to be up, he's too good a wrestler to suddenly not be a top20 guy.

 

[RoarLions1]

Last weight class (285 was done earlier and is above). Enjoy!

197
#1 Eric Schultz (NEB)
#2 Cameron Caffey (MSU)
#3 Max Dean (PSU)
#4 Jacob Warner (IOWA)
#5 Patrick Brucki (MICH)
#6 Tom Penola (PUR)
#7 Greg Bulsak (RUT)
#8 Garrett Hoffman (tOSU)
#9 Braxton Amos (WIS)
#10 Andrew Davison (NU)
#11 Michial Foy (MINN)
#12 Jaron Smith (MD)
#13 Nate Willham (IND)
#14 Matt Wroblewski (ILL)

There are two undefeated wrestlers (conference duals only) at this weight class, and neither is from Penn State or Iowa. I’m going #1 Schultz (NEB) and #2 Caffey (MSU), though maybe Caffey should get the sympathy vote, wrestling for the Spartans (I kid, I kid). Caffey lost early in the season to Wroblewski (ILL), THE NUMBER 14 SEED for Big Ten’s imo. It was at a tournament, and I’m using it as a tiebreaker, though another factor is Schultz winning HTH vs #4 Warner (IOWA), while Caffey beat #3 Dean (PSU) HTH.

Dean beat #4 Warner (IOWA) HTH, making the top four pretty clean in my book. #5 Brucki (MICH) has two good HTH wins vs #7 Bulsak (RUT) and #8 Hoffman (tOSU), and a moderately bad loss to #12 Smith (MD), but it is enough to get the next seed. He cannot be higher, losing HTH vs Dean and Schultz. Next I placed #6 Penola (PUR), though I’m torn between him and #7 Bulsak. Both have one moderately good win (both beat #9 Amos HTH), but Bulsak has a loss to #8 Hoffman. Very little separation here, but with limited data I’m looking for anything that provides that sliver of differentiation.

As said, with the good win over Bulsak, it is #8 Hoffman, followed by #9 Amos. #10 Davison (NU), with only good losses (to #’s 1, 2, 4, and 6) is next. His two wins are against #12 and a back-up, so he can’t be higher. #11 Foy (MINN) has a good win vs Hoffman HTH, and doesn’t have any bad losses. See above for the bottom couple of seeds.

 

[nitlion6]

Poznanski really is a mystery - 4th last year as a true freshman, starts off 13-0 and now is 3-4 in his last 7 matches. Something has to be up, he's too good a wrestler to suddenly not be a top20 guy.

At Rutgers one doesn't shake off the rust with competition. Instead aa one stays in the Rutgers room one accumulates Rutgers gunk.

 

[Still in State College]

I'd far rather see Berge at 10 or 11 than 9.

Am expecting 6 pre-allocations. If so, then Berge qualifies for nationals by reaching B10 semis -- and Anybody But Deakin in the quarters helps greatly.

If those seeds hold it will be tough, beat Saldate, lose to Deakin and if seeds hold Berge would then have Wilcox, Robb, Young and Coleman to finish 3rd. I think.

 

[Maddog]

Thanks for doing this Roar! If these seeds end up being true, PSU will have 6 wrestlers competing in the first round at B1Gs; only the four returning champs will get first round byes. Good chance for bonus points from Drew, Dean, and Kirk.

 

[Cowbell Man]

At Rutgers one doesn't shake off the rust with competition. Instead aa one stays in the Rutgers room one accumulates Rutgers gunk.

Maybe he’s just not the Ladies Man that Warner is.

 

[dbldoofus]

Roar or anyone? Is it time for a reminder on how B1G brackets are set up? Is it a 16-man bracket with bye's for #1 and #2?

 

[Cowbell Man]

Roar or anyone? Is it time for a reminder on how B1G brackets are set up? Is it a 16-man bracket with bye's for #1 and #2?

Shhh. Not yet. That’s next week, man. We got two weeks to go and need to save content!! That last two weeks of emptiness was brutal.

 

[dbldoofus]

I must agree. That two weeks before Rider was a preview of the long off-season

 

[RoarLions1]

Roar or anyone? Is it time for a reminder on how B1G brackets are set up? Is it a 16-man bracket with bye's for #1 and #2?

Shhh. Not yet. That’s next week, man. We got two weeks to go and need to save content!! That last two weeks of emptiness was brutal.

Ha, plenty of other things to debate in the next week and 5 days. Starting this Thursday we'll have the Qualifier Allocations, for example.

Big Ten is a 16-person bracket with two byes (#1 and #2 seeds get byes).

NCAA's are a 32-person bracket with one pigtail per weight class. (Note: as compared to years ago when it was a 64-person bracket with 31 byes!).

 

[McScoreley]

Appreciate you doing like always Roar!

If Rivera defaults out of Big Tens, Eierman basically gets the walk to the finals vs Nick.

 

[dmm53]

Do Pre-pre seeds get discussed and revised at the pre-seeds meeting before the pre-seeds are discussed at the seeding meeting?

And what about the pre-season seeds? Are they considered by the Pre-pre seeding committee (of one, i.e., Roar)? I would prefer that all of this is clarified in a presentation preceding the pre-pre seeds thread.

It would prepare us with a premium preview of the Big Tens and prep us to predict pre-seeds for NCAAs, thereby avoiding a preponderance of prejudice by our predecessors.

 

[KidDagger]

184
#1 Aaron Brooks (PSU)
#2 Myles Amine (MICH)
#3 Kaleb Romero (tOSU)
#4 Abe Assad (IOWA)
#5 Isaiah Salazar (MINN)
#6 Lane Malczewski (MSU)
#7 Taylor Venz (NEB)
#8 Chris Weiler (WIS)
#9 Zach Braunagel (ILL)
#10 Kyle Cochran (MD)
#11 Donnell Washington (IND)
#12 John Poznanski (RUT)
#13 Max Lyon (PUR)
#14 Jon Halvorson or Jack Jessen (NU)

Standing atop the seeding at 184 after a HTH regular season win vs #2 Amine (MICH) is #1 Brooks (PSU). Amine has a HTH win vs #3 Romero, which is Romero’s only loss. So far, so good. Even my #4 seed (Assad, IOWA) WAS solid until he was pinned by Venz (NEB) in the final dual of the year, so I’m having to rework these seeds too (I also reworked 174).

Sooooo, after re-working a bit, the Venz pin helped Venz more than it hurt Assad, when one considers all other facts. I’m leaving Assad at #4. #5 Salazar (MINN) doesn’t get #4, despite a 4-1 conference record, as his loss is to Lyon (PUR), and his best wins are Braunagel and Weiler. Assad beat both of those guys AND beat Lyon. #6 Malczewski doesn’t move up, as in an unremarkable season he only has decent wins (Cochran, Poznanski, Lyon, all behind him) plus a loss to Washington (IND). #’s 4, 5, and 6 are very close. The Big Ten could move Malczewski in front of Salazar as Salazar wrestled an abbreviated schedule.

What does one do with Venz? A great win against Assad is overshadowed by losses to Lyon and Braunagel, which combined outweigh the win. I’m moving Venz into #7, as he has a HTH win vs my #8, Weiler (WIS). #9 Braunagel (ILL) split his Bit Ten bouts 4-4, beating Venz, and losing HTH to #8 Weiler. At #10 is Cochran (MD). His final bout win, vs Poznanski (RUT) got the Southern Scuffle Champ this seed, as with five conference losses he was heading towards #10 or lower.

Washington lost HTH to Cochran, so he’s #110. The second half of 184 (#’s 8 through 13) are in my opinion the strongest back end of any weight class in the Big Ten. All but my #14 appears to have a shot at making the big dance at the conference tourney! Despite his recent woes, losing his last four conference bouts is #12 Poznanski (RUT). Then it’s #13 Lyon (PUR) before #14 Halvorson/Jessen. Venz and Poznanski have the most surprising resumes, both finishing as AA’s once in their careers.

Wow Poz seeded #12…. Yeah I’ll place a bet he out performs that seed

 

[amattaro]

Top seed is an easy choice, with #1 Suriano (RUT) the only unbeaten in the conference.

Is this a prediction on Nicky Transfers trying to pull off the first in-season school swap?

 

[GantryZ]

Though obviously a joke, the in-season school swap has happened more than a few times, including a PSU wrestler awhile back named Galloway (can't remember first name)

 

[RoarLions1]

Though obviously a joke, the in-season school swap has happened more than a few times, including a PSU wrestler awhile back named Galloway (can't remember first name)

Nathan, to Rider.