Roar's Big Ten Wrestling Championship Pre-seeds Write-up
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
Team Race, Big Ten's
Who will wrestle well at B1G’s? Who will wrestle poorly? Will Michigan State score any points? Those are the questions on everyone’s mind. There will be surprises, there will be upsets, and except for the blind squirrel finding a nut phenomenon, no fan that I know can predict the results with any regularity. So, let’s go…here’s one man’s speculation, hypothesizing, and CONJECTURING (yep, it’s a word, I looked it up).
By my seeds, 6 different teams sport a wrestler with at least 1 guy at #1. PSU has 3, Retherford, Hall, and Nickal, while tOSU and Michigan both have 2, McKenna and Moore for the Buckeyes, and Micic and Coon for the Wolverines. 3 other teams have one each, Rutgers (Suriano), Iowa (Kemerer), and Illinois (Martinez). I have not looked at #1 seeds successfully ending as champs at Big Ten’s, but at the National Tournament, over the past 40 years, it’s 55%, or 55.5% for you detail guys and gals out there. I mention this, as a 1st Place finish is a 4-point swing over 2nd Place, and with so many of the top team’s guys expected to compete for an individual title, it’s surely to be a factor.
Unlike the National Tournament, the decompression of Big Ten’s (14 wrestlers vs 33 at NCAA’s) means a R12 or R16-quality guy at the big dance, scoring 1.5 to 2 points, is of placewinner-quality at B1G’s, and depending how strong a weight class is in-conference, could score in the 9-13 point range. Big Ten’s is a different animal than NCAA’s, and it surely helps to have 10 scoring wrestlers. Fewer are needed at NCAA’s.
Here’s the point scheme I used for my conjecturing (Placement & Advancement only);
1st – 19 Points (16 Placement, 3 Advancement)
2nd – 15 (12 Placement,3 Advancement)
3rd – 12.5 (10 Placement, 2.5 Advancement)
4th – 11.5 (9 Placement, 2.5 Advancement)
5th – 9 (7 Placement,2 Advancement)
6th – 8 (6 Placement, 2 Advancement)
7th – 5.5 (4 Placement, 1.5 Advancement)
8th – 4.5 (3 Placement, 1.5 Advancement)
Bonus Point wins WILL be a factor. In 2016 and 2017, for example, Penn State scored 23.5 and 23, respectively. Those totals will be tough to beat this year, as it appears the Nittany Lions will have 1st Round byes at 141, 149, 157, and 184. Random draws at 133, 174, 197, and 285 may also result in a 1st Round bye for Penn State wrestlers.. One less bout for guys at those weights means lost opportunity for bonus. Some will cry foul, not me. It is what it is, and the bracketing makes sense from a big picture perspective.
Using my seeds as the actual placement, here’s the mathematical results;
PSU - 135
tOSU - 127.5
Mich - 102.5
Iowa - 91
Nebraska - 69.5
Rutgers - 63
Illinois - 52
NU - 45.5
Purdue - 45
Minn - 44.5
Wisconsin - 44
Maryland - 17
Indiana - 13.5
MSU - ??
So many “what-if’s”. Adding in Bonus Points, it looks like Penn State widens the 7.5 point spread between them and tOSU. That’s a solid theory, based on history, though my explanation above, of bonus point limits, will factor in. Then there’s; What if Snyder wins? What if Tomasello exceeds his 3 seed? What if Nolf doesn’t go? Those are the big point movers, and can be boiled down to this; Snyder winning is worth an added 4 points in my model, Tomasello winning is worth 6.5, and Nolf wrestling one bout and winning, then MFF his next 2, is a 7-point swing, all in favor of the Buckeyes. One can easily see it will be a dog fight.
There is a gap from the predicted 2nd Place team, and Michigan and Iowa, then another gap between 4th and predicted #5, and #6, Nebraska and Rutgers respectively. Again, all this is pre-Bonus Points, and one hot wrestler, an injury (I hope not), or a wrestler having a bad tournament, will impact the team race.
Given everything above, I’m going with Ohio State as the team champion. It appears the Buckeyes will have 4 guaranteed 1st Round bouts, 4 guys may due to random draw, and 2 sure bye’s. PSU has 2 guaranteed 1st Round bouts, 4 guys may due to random draw, and 4 sure bye’s. Advantage Buckeye’s. I’m also going; Snyder – Champ, and Nolf to go one bout (pure speculation), which is an 11-point swing. It will be close though!!
The rest of the teams, I’ll leave in the order posted above. Iowa, with a good tournament from the likes of Stoll and Lee, with everyone else holding seed, could overtake Michigan. Rutgers is in the next group of two, and the Scarlet Knights’ fate rests squarely on Suriano’s health. The Rutgers team has 5 other guys in the 4th through 7th range, so a guy with 1st Place points is worth at least one, and maybe 2 or 3 team placements.
Well, that’s all for now. Again, hope y’all enjoyed the write-ups. Wrestling starts a week from tomorrow, in the confines of the Breslin Student Events Center, on the campus of Michigan State University. Whether you plan to attend, watch on tv or your computer, or just listen to “the Voice of Penn State Wrestling”, I’d ask that you support these young men, win or lose.
SCHEDULE
Saturday, March 3, 2018
8:30 a.m. ET Doors Open To Public
10 a.m. ET Session I
4:30 p.m. ET Doors Open To Public (**Arena Cleared Between Sessions**)
6 p.m. ET Session II
Sunday, March 4, 2018
10:30 a.m. ET Doors Open To Public
12 p.m. ET Session III ^
3 p.m. ET Session IV - Big Ten Championships ^
^ = One ticket is good for Sessions III & IV
Who will wrestle well at B1G’s? Who will wrestle poorly? Will Michigan State score any points? Those are the questions on everyone’s mind. There will be surprises, there will be upsets, and except for the blind squirrel finding a nut phenomenon, no fan that I know can predict the results with any regularity. So, let’s go…here’s one man’s speculation, hypothesizing, and CONJECTURING (yep, it’s a word, I looked it up).
By my seeds, 6 different teams sport a wrestler with at least 1 guy at #1. PSU has 3, Retherford, Hall, and Nickal, while tOSU and Michigan both have 2, McKenna and Moore for the Buckeyes, and Micic and Coon for the Wolverines. 3 other teams have one each, Rutgers (Suriano), Iowa (Kemerer), and Illinois (Martinez). I have not looked at #1 seeds successfully ending as champs at Big Ten’s, but at the National Tournament, over the past 40 years, it’s 55%, or 55.5% for you detail guys and gals out there. I mention this, as a 1st Place finish is a 4-point swing over 2nd Place, and with so many of the top team’s guys expected to compete for an individual title, it’s surely to be a factor.
Unlike the National Tournament, the decompression of Big Ten’s (14 wrestlers vs 33 at NCAA’s) means a R12 or R16-quality guy at the big dance, scoring 1.5 to 2 points, is of placewinner-quality at B1G’s, and depending how strong a weight class is in-conference, could score in the 9-13 point range. Big Ten’s is a different animal than NCAA’s, and it surely helps to have 10 scoring wrestlers. Fewer are needed at NCAA’s.
Here’s the point scheme I used for my conjecturing (Placement & Advancement only);
1st – 19 Points (16 Placement, 3 Advancement)
2nd – 15 (12 Placement,3 Advancement)
3rd – 12.5 (10 Placement, 2.5 Advancement)
4th – 11.5 (9 Placement, 2.5 Advancement)
5th – 9 (7 Placement,2 Advancement)
6th – 8 (6 Placement, 2 Advancement)
7th – 5.5 (4 Placement, 1.5 Advancement)
8th – 4.5 (3 Placement, 1.5 Advancement)
Bonus Point wins WILL be a factor. In 2016 and 2017, for example, Penn State scored 23.5 and 23, respectively. Those totals will be tough to beat this year, as it appears the Nittany Lions will have 1st Round byes at 141, 149, 157, and 184. Random draws at 133, 174, 197, and 285 may also result in a 1st Round bye for Penn State wrestlers.. One less bout for guys at those weights means lost opportunity for bonus. Some will cry foul, not me. It is what it is, and the bracketing makes sense from a big picture perspective.
Using my seeds as the actual placement, here’s the mathematical results;
PSU - 135
tOSU - 127.5
Mich - 102.5
Iowa - 91
Nebraska - 69.5
Rutgers - 63
Illinois - 52
NU - 45.5
Purdue - 45
Minn - 44.5
Wisconsin - 44
Maryland - 17
Indiana - 13.5
MSU - ??
So many “what-if’s”. Adding in Bonus Points, it looks like Penn State widens the 7.5 point spread between them and tOSU. That’s a solid theory, based on history, though my explanation above, of bonus point limits, will factor in. Then there’s; What if Snyder wins? What if Tomasello exceeds his 3 seed? What if Nolf doesn’t go? Those are the big point movers, and can be boiled down to this; Snyder winning is worth an added 4 points in my model, Tomasello winning is worth 6.5, and Nolf wrestling one bout and winning, then MFF his next 2, is a 7-point swing, all in favor of the Buckeyes. One can easily see it will be a dog fight.
There is a gap from the predicted 2nd Place team, and Michigan and Iowa, then another gap between 4th and predicted #5, and #6, Nebraska and Rutgers respectively. Again, all this is pre-Bonus Points, and one hot wrestler, an injury (I hope not), or a wrestler having a bad tournament, will impact the team race.
Given everything above, I’m going with Ohio State as the team champion. It appears the Buckeyes will have 4 guaranteed 1st Round bouts, 4 guys may due to random draw, and 2 sure bye’s. PSU has 2 guaranteed 1st Round bouts, 4 guys may due to random draw, and 4 sure bye’s. Advantage Buckeye’s. I’m also going; Snyder – Champ, and Nolf to go one bout (pure speculation), which is an 11-point swing. It will be close though!!
The rest of the teams, I’ll leave in the order posted above. Iowa, with a good tournament from the likes of Stoll and Lee, with everyone else holding seed, could overtake Michigan. Rutgers is in the next group of two, and the Scarlet Knights’ fate rests squarely on Suriano’s health. The Rutgers team has 5 other guys in the 4th through 7th range, so a guy with 1st Place points is worth at least one, and maybe 2 or 3 team placements.
Well, that’s all for now. Again, hope y’all enjoyed the write-ups. Wrestling starts a week from tomorrow, in the confines of the Breslin Student Events Center, on the campus of Michigan State University. Whether you plan to attend, watch on tv or your computer, or just listen to “the Voice of Penn State Wrestling”, I’d ask that you support these young men, win or lose.
SCHEDULE
Saturday, March 3, 2018
8:30 a.m. ET Doors Open To Public
10 a.m. ET Session I
4:30 p.m. ET Doors Open To Public (**Arena Cleared Between Sessions**)
6 p.m. ET Session II
Sunday, March 4, 2018
10:30 a.m. ET Doors Open To Public
12 p.m. ET Session III ^
3 p.m. ET Session IV - Big Ten Championships ^
^ = One ticket is good for Sessions III & IV
Got to go with OSU by just a sliver! Their ceiling seems much higher than PSU’s especially with 1rd byes and if Suriano and Nolf aren’t a go. Also I think Snyder will beat Coon in their rematch. I like the Nits pretty much holding their seeds although I think NLee beats McKenna and Joseph beats Marinelli in their rematch’s.
I don't understand why 141, 157, and 184 have guaranteed byes for our guys. Only 8 B1G allocations for each of those classes. (Thanks for all of your work!)
Because of the criteria to qualify for an at large bid one of which is qualifying event placement one below AQ. So they need to seed to 14 and have wrestlebacks to determine who is 9th at BIGs.
Every place I looks says the B1G seeds 14 for 9 or more qualifiers (e.g. http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-wrestl/spec-rel/022717aaa.html), but I understand what you're saying, and that makes perfect sense. Thanks!!
Mr. Roar, that is some very good analysis. Thanks very much for your efforts. Wishing it was next week already.
How are the winners brackets scheduled? 1st round Session 1, quarters Session 2, semis Session 3, finals Session 4? Or 1st round and quarters Session 1, semis Session 2, and finals Session 4; with Session 3 being consi finals only?
The second scenario. First session is 6 1st round matches and then 4 QF matches. Second session will have the semis and 3 rounds of consys. Sunday is really only 1 session with a break after all the consys and the 7th place match are done. Then a break while we all walk laps around the arena to stretch out stiff legs followed by the 1st, 3rd, and 5th place matches done at the same time on 3 mats.
Wrestlers EARN their way to NCAA's by participating in their conference tourney's and finishing at or higher than the auto-qualifier number.
Another way is to be a Bronze Standard wrestler, and earn an at-large berth. Those "berths" used to be 4-per-weight-class, but changed several years ago so the NCAA didn't have to force extreme floating of the 3 criteria (% Wins, RPI, Coaches Ranking). This year it's 4 at-large selections available at 125, 157, 165, 184, and 285, 5 selections at 133, 174, and 197, and 6 selections at 141 and 149.
For Penn State wrestlers, I am 100% confident that Lee (141), Retherford (149), Nolf (157), Joseph (165), Hall (174), Nickal (184), Rasheed (197), and Nevills (285) have earned their way to the Big Dance, regardless of how they perform at Big Ten's. That leaves two wrestlers to review, Kuhn at 125, and Keener at 133.
Kuhn will not be Bronze Standard, not even close, so he'll have to earn his way by finishing top-10, the allocation number from the NCAA. Suriano, Lee, Tomasello, Lizak, Rivera, Mattin, Welch, Foley, Piotrowski, and Oliver earns the conference's allocation, so Kuhn's challenge is to finish higher than at least one of those guys AND the 3 lower seeded guys at 125. It's called "stealing" a spot.
Keener is Gold Standard, meaning he earned the conference a slot. He also looks like he'll be the 5th or 6th seed in a weight class with 7 auto-qualifiers. Wrestle top-7, and he's in. Wrestle outside the top-7, and he'll have to wait for an at-large selection. Doubt it will come to that, but if it does, his chances are excellent. He WILL be Bronze Standard, and there are 5 at-large selections at 133. That means 5 guys above him, by criteria, were not auto-qualifiers in their conference. Off-the-charts unlikely.
Another way is to be a Bronze Standard wrestler, and earn an at-large berth. Those "berths" used to be 4-per-weight-class, but changed several years ago so the NCAA didn't have to force extreme floating of the 3 criteria (% Wins, RPI, Coaches Ranking). This year it's 4 at-large selections available at 125, 157, 165, 184, and 285, 5 selections at 133, 174, and 197, and 6 selections at 141 and 149.
For Penn State wrestlers, I am 100% confident that Lee (141), Retherford (149), Nolf (157), Joseph (165), Hall (174), Nickal (184), Rasheed (197), and Nevills (285) have earned their way to the Big Dance, regardless of how they perform at Big Ten's. That leaves two wrestlers to review, Kuhn at 125, and Keener at 133.
Kuhn will not be Bronze Standard, not even close, so he'll have to earn his way by finishing top-10, the allocation number from the NCAA. Suriano, Lee, Tomasello, Lizak, Rivera, Mattin, Welch, Foley, Piotrowski, and Oliver earns the conference's allocation, so Kuhn's challenge is to finish higher than at least one of those guys AND the 3 lower seeded guys at 125. It's called "stealing" a spot.
Keener is Gold Standard, meaning he earned the conference a slot. He also looks like he'll be the 5th or 6th seed in a weight class with 7 auto-qualifiers. Wrestle top-7, and he's in. Wrestle outside the top-7, and he'll have to wait for an at-large selection. Doubt it will come to that, but if it does, his chances are excellent. He WILL be Bronze Standard, and there are 5 at-large selections at 133. That means 5 guys above him, by criteria, were not auto-qualifiers in their conference. Off-the-charts unlikely.
Roar..so a wrestler can be Gold (meets RPI, Coaches ranking, winning %) or silver standard (2 of those 3) and earn an allocation spot for conference tourney.
After tourney, if guys didn't receive an auto qualifier, I assume anyone that was Gold or Silver turns into Bronze after tourney. Then someone chooses who the best 4 (assuming 4 at large)are of the remaining bronze wrestlers?
Do I have this correct? If so..who chooses the at large wrestlers? Is it a commitee? Coaches?
Thanks in advance
After tourney, if guys didn't receive an auto qualifier, I assume anyone that was Gold or Silver turns into Bronze after tourney. Then someone chooses who the best 4 (assuming 4 at large)are of the remaining bronze wrestlers?
Do I have this correct? If so..who chooses the at large wrestlers? Is it a commitee? Coaches?
Thanks in advance
After the auto qualifiers the below criteria are used to establish those that are eligible for an at large bid. Couldn't find it quickly but I'm sure Roar will but there is a weighting of HTH results, etc. to rank those that meet the bronze standard to decide who gets the at large bids.
Wrestlers that meet two or more of the 'bronze' criteria will be labeled bronze
standard and eligible for at large selection. Standards include: .700 overall winning percentage, top 33 RPI (taken after the qualifying tournaments), top 33 coaches ranking; one win against a wrestler receiving AQ via an earned position (preallocated); qualifying event placement one below AQ.
NoVa provided the answer re. Gold, Silver, and Bronze, though there's a twist. The metrics are recalculated and re-voted (Win %, RPI, and Coaches Ranking), so a bubble guy before that was a Silver Standard, isn't necessarily going to be Bronze, say if he goes 0-2 in his conference tourney. Rare, but happens. The opposite would be a kid that wasn't at least Silver becomes Bronze by meeting only one criteria OR one of the two additional criteria that NoVa mentioned.
I have the sense you're asking if the at-large selections all come from Gold/Silver Standard wrestlers, right? Answer is not necessarily.
At-large selections are made by the D1 Wrestling Committee. It would be a conflict of interest if the coaches were involved in any way, so the rules disallow any involvement, or promotion of any sort for any wrestler.
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Great analysis as usual. Thanks. I hope you're wrong about tOSU winning -- but if they do I hope we have a repeat of the 2nd place finisher at B1Gs winning the national championship. If that happens it would be at least the 3rd time in the last 20 years that this happened. Anyone remember the other instance where this happened? (No peaking. And NoVa is excluded from this competition because we've discussed that in the last year -- and he doesn't forget much.)
PSU peaks for nationals.... why not? That’s what it’s all about.
From the off season training and freestyle/ Greco tournaments, to preseason training, to OCC duals, Keystone/Southern Scuffle tournaments, B1G duals, B1G tournament. It’s packaged in an calculated schedule that gets the wrestlers to their optimal performance level at the right time. Trust the process. The B1G is huge... but for seeding purposes only. Do your best, have fun, go for the wins, but keep your eye on the prize.
From the off season training and freestyle/ Greco tournaments, to preseason training, to OCC duals, Keystone/Southern Scuffle tournaments, B1G duals, B1G tournament. It’s packaged in an calculated schedule that gets the wrestlers to their optimal performance level at the right time. Trust the process. The B1G is huge... but for seeding purposes only. Do your best, have fun, go for the wins, but keep your eye on the prize.
Roar and Bigs agree way more than they disagree.
Here is a comparison to Roar's pre-seeds.
125 first 4 the same, 5 Lizak and 6 Welch swapped. Foley gave a 10 seed but Bigs gave him a 7, last three the same order
133 Roar nailed except 7 and 8 seed swapped
141 Tho three the same, Roar likes Thorn at 4 but Bigs dropped him to 6
149 pretty much the same except 5 and 6 swapped, Hayes ahead of Slugger Deluca.
157, Roar gave Jason a 2 seed, Bigs couldn't decide for now. Only other difference is 7 and 8 swapped.
165 Nailed it
174 Roar liked Amine over BoJo, not the Bigs. Otherwise the same
184 they copied Roar
197 biggest changed weight. 1 and 2 the same, then Roar liked Ritter as 3 but Bigs gave him 5 and Schultz was 4 for Roar but 8 for Bigs, Roar was not as much of a Wilcke fan, he gave him 6 but Bigs 3, some other changes between Beqazley Brunner and Chakonis but relative order stayed the same.
285 Top 3 sames, swapped 4 and 5 Stoll and Hemida. Roar's 8 was Jensen and Bigs has Streifel.
Here is a comparison to Roar's pre-seeds.
125 first 4 the same, 5 Lizak and 6 Welch swapped. Foley gave a 10 seed but Bigs gave him a 7, last three the same order
133 Roar nailed except 7 and 8 seed swapped
141 Tho three the same, Roar likes Thorn at 4 but Bigs dropped him to 6
149 pretty much the same except 5 and 6 swapped, Hayes ahead of Slugger Deluca.
157, Roar gave Jason a 2 seed, Bigs couldn't decide for now. Only other difference is 7 and 8 swapped.
165 Nailed it
174 Roar liked Amine over BoJo, not the Bigs. Otherwise the same
184 they copied Roar
197 biggest changed weight. 1 and 2 the same, then Roar liked Ritter as 3 but Bigs gave him 5 and Schultz was 4 for Roar but 8 for Bigs, Roar was not as much of a Wilcke fan, he gave him 6 but Bigs 3, some other changes between Beqazley Brunner and Chakonis but relative order stayed the same.
285 Top 3 sames, swapped 4 and 5 Stoll and Hemida. Roar's 8 was Jensen and Bigs has Streifel.
