Rose Bowl Checklist

[BisonLion15]

Not likely Michigan loses two games (one being tOSU) through the end of the season (contingent PSU wins out), so next best case scenario is a Rose Bowl berth. Here's my checklist:

Week 9
Penn State beats Purdue - check
Wisconsin beats Nebraska - check
Ohio State beats Northwestern - check

Week 10
Penn State beats Iowa - 63%
Ohio State beats Nebraska - 86%

Week 11
Penn State beats Indiana - 75%

Week 12
Penn State beats Rutgers - 92%

Week 13
Penn State beats Michigan State - 83%
Michigan beats Ohio State - 56%

BIG Championship
Michigan beats Wisconsin

 

[21Guns]

So, you are saying the committee will take a two loss PSU team over a two loss Ohio State team? Maybe, maybe not.

 

[BisonLion15]

PSU's BIG record would be better than tOSU and they beat them head-to-head. Fans would probably travel equally. Only difference would probably be an arbitrary ranking. They should take PSU, but who knows.

 

[bjf1991]

PSU's BIG record would be better than tOSU and they beat them head-to-head. Fans would probably travel equally. Only difference would probably be an arbitrary ranking. They should take PSU, but who knows.

There is no way they take PSU in that scenario - - - not unless you are just failing to mention "OSU losing another game along the way" (so that they finish w 3 losses)

 

[California_Lion]

We're getting a little ahead of ourselves - let's beat I-Oh-Was first.

But, if OSU lost to Nebraska and Michigan, while we won out, then wouldn't we be in the Rose Bowl?

Again, let's take it one game at a time, but it is fun to imagine.

 

[Kiber]

We're getting a little ahead of ourselves - let's beat I-Oh-Was first.

But, if OSU lost to Nebraska and Michigan, while we won out, then wouldn't we be in the Rose Bowl?

Again, let's take it one game at a time, but it is fun to imagine.

In this scenario, "NO", because if OSU lost to Nebraska there is a very real chance of Nebraska winning out and finishing the season 11-1. Should Nebraska finish the season 11-1 (and be a top 10 team) and play Michigan in the B1G Championship Game, it would be almost a 100% guarantee that even if Nebraska lost to Michigan they'd go to The Rose Bowl.

 

[bjf1991]

We're getting a little ahead of ourselves - let's beat I-Oh-Was first.

But, if OSU lost to Nebraska and Michigan, while we won out, then wouldn't we be in the Rose Bowl?

Again, let's take it one game at a time, but it is fun to imagine.

That's the better option..... Don't know how likely it is (I think UNL is a 7-5 team that was lucky to get to where they got)

 

[Andy84]

The Rose Bowl committee has stated that their definition of the "next best big ten team" is the team ranked highest in the college football playoff poll. So if OP scenario plays out, choice of team will come down to that poll.

 

[LemonEars]

Very unlikely we go to the Rose Bowl this year. The pollsters are likely looking at our win against Ohio State as a fluke and they might be right. OSU beat us on all the relevant stats and we won because of two fourth quarter blocked kicks. It wouldn't surprise me if the pollsters had a 3 loss Ohio State team ahead of us in the polls!

 

[Ian]

O$U will not lose to UNL.

 

[BlueBand]

It's not impossible, but highly unlikely we go to the Rose Bowl. Just like it's possible but highly unlikely we play in the B1G Championship Game.

This is the benefit of starting the season in the rankings... and starting high in the rankings. Our starting position unranked and not getting votes is probably too much to overcome to get ranked high enough. We'd need a lot of losses above us, and some big scoring blowouts to jump that high.

We used to benefit from the system. PSU got early season rankings we may not have always deserved, because of our track record and Joe. Now the shoes on the other foot. For now.

Honestly, as much improved as the team is since the first game, and Ohio State notwithstanding, I don't think we're good enough (yet) to deserve the Rose Bowl. If we go 10-2, it's a combination of improved play, and a schedule where the back end opponents are underperforming. Now, depending on how well we play those games, I may change my mind.

 

[Woodpecker]

Not likely Michigan loses two games (one being tOSU) through the end of the season (contingent PSU wins out), so next best case scenario is a Rose Bowl berth. Here's my checklist:

Week 9
Penn State beats Purdue - check
Wisconsin beats Nebraska - check
Ohio State beats Northwestern - check

Week 10
Penn State beats Iowa - 63%
Ohio State beats Nebraska - 86%

Week 11
Penn State beats Indiana - 75%

Week 12
Penn State beats Rutgers - 92%

Week 13
Penn State beats Michigan State - 83%
Michigan beats Ohio State - 56%

BIG Championship
Michigan beats Wisconsin

BTW, using your percentages, there's only a 17% chance of all of those things happening.