Seed Projections

[ezrahallam]

Neither White or Cassar will get any credit for beating Nevills. Since Nevills didn’t qualify for nationals, he’s not a “quality win”.

While margin of victory seems like it should matter, the only place in the seeding criteria that could potentially include margin of victory is the coach’s ranking.

 

[psudotedu]

I believe there's another RPI and Coach's rankings due out. I expect there to be a good chance that Cassar is #1 in both.

Cassar is going to get the #1. Committee usually favors the Big Ten Champion when it's close. If we're excluding Steveson from #1 b/c he didn't win it, Cassar should get it b/c he did.

 

[NittanyChris]

Bonus percentage should absolutely come into play. If I'm not mistaken, Cassar crushes them both in terms of bonus points. Throw in the fact that the Big 12 couldn't hold a candle to the Big 10 and it's:
1. Cassar
2. Steveson
3. White

 

[ezrahallam]

Maybe bonus % should come into play, but under the current seeding system it has zero weight. It may sway some coaches in how they vote in the coaches poll. But the coach’s poll is only 15% of seeding. So any contribution bonus percentage has on seeding is indirect and small.

The RPI on Wrestle Stat is up to date through conference. It has 1. White 2. Steveson 3. Cassar

The coach’s final ranking isn’t released until after the seedings are announced on Wednesday.

 

[nitlion6]

Pretty good. Some humorous stuff on Themat forum with several guys not giving the benefit of the doubt on seeding to any Penn State guy where it’s anything but a lock (I.e. other than Nolf/Nickal).

One troll had Lewis 1 which would have been stupid even if he hadn’t lost.

Stupid and "themat" go hand in hand better than hormonal teenaged boyfriend/girlfriend.

 

[BFosr1]

Is conference championships an actual tie breaking criteria? Or are we getting this mixed up with college football?

If it is a major criteria, say after head to head let’s say, than White would be the #1. Since Steveson/White/Cassar all split matches, Steveson would be eliminated from consideration first as the only one of the 3 who didn’t win his conference.

Then common opponents wouldn’t even come into play because you now have a head to head comparison between the 2 left in consideration. Because of this logic, White’s win over Cassar would trump Cassar’s Over Steveson since not only did White beat Cassar head to head, this win is over The Big Ten Champion, without question the toughest conference in America.

Cassar’s win over Steveson would be over a great, at one time undefeated wrestler, but a non conference champ which he had the chance to do against White but failed to do so.

Now after saying all that....Cassar will be the number #1 seed. It’s a virtual lock. And I wouldn’t argue it a bit because Cassar beats White next time they wrestle, no question in my mind.

 

[tpnlion]

Based on???

#1 seed is conference champ, Cassar is one, White is one...White beat Cassar....I don't agree with this logic but I have a friend that thinks this won't even be a debate....case closed he claims.

 

[NittanyChris]

#1 seed is conference champ, Cassar is one, White is one...White beat Cassar....I don't agree with this logic but I have a friend that thinks this won't even be a debate....case closed he claims.

The problem with that logic is that you are equating the Big 10 and the Big 12 when they are not even remotely comparable in terms of the level of talent at heavyweight. Cassar lost to White by one point two and a half months ago and Cassar beat the undefeated number one guy last weekend.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Cassar took down Gable for the first time and has THEE best win at 285 this year, if not the best PERIOD.

 

[aalion]

wouldnt the guy who beat the current (Intermat) #1 have the best win? just sayin'... there is no clear cut answer here. White beat the man who beat the man...

 

[billrag]

I don't know squat about seeding, but I have to believe that the vast majority of wrestling fans previously believed that Steveson would be an undefeated champion (possibly 4 times) and that most would prefer to see Cassar and Steveson in the final. I also personally believe (and suspect that most non-PSU wrestling fans probably believe) that Cassar will/would beat White in a rematch. All anecdotal stuff and it has nothing to do with what will really happen, just my thoughts on the subject.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Forget about trying to seed all 3 at the same time,focus on the number one seed...

GS dint win conference so how can he be #1??

This leaves AC and DW.

Now,are they gonna value the better wins and give it to AC or give it to DW cuz of HTH??

 

[jack66]

I don't know squat about seeding, but I have to believe that the vast majority of wrestling fans previously believed that Steveson would be an undefeated champion (possibly 4 times)

This

I was listening to Flo's predictions last week. When they came to 285 they didn't even give Cassar a fighting chance ... they already had Gable in the 'Nolf' category.

I'm not saying they are experts by any means, but they did represent the thinking and hype surrounding the next 'generational' talent to step on the mats. Cassar's win got everyone's attention ... including seeding committee members. I see no way AC does not get #1.

 

[RoarLions1]

Going through the comparisons...with the following assumptions for the three pairs (Cassar/Steveson, Cassar/White, and Steveson/White);

-- HTH is; 25/0 for Cassar/Steveson, 0/25 for Cassar/White, and 0/25 for White/Steveson.
-- Quality Wins will be an equal split 10/10 for all three pairs, though it does appear Gable > Cassar > White, so I'm going conservative.
-- Coaches Panel Ranking is an unknown, but this is HUGE. It's a 30-point swing, as this is worth 15 points. I'll go 1) Cassar, 2) Steveson, 3) White, but have no idea.
-- RPI is 1) White, 2) Steveson, and 3) Cassar.
-- Conference finish is; 10/0 for Cassar/Steveson, 5/5 for Cassar/White, and 10/0 for White/Steveson.
-- Common Opponents is a 5/5 split for all three pairs.
-- Win% is Steveson > White > Cassar.

If I add up all the points, it's; White > Cassar > Steveson, so White would get the top seed. HOWEVER, if two things happen, the model has a different outcome.
-- First, the CR has to be as I have it above; (1) Cassar, (2) Steveson, and (3) White.
-- The QW (Quality Wins) ends up; Steveson = Cassar > White.

It appears Steveson could have more points than White, White has more points than Cassar, and Cassar will have more points than Steveson. So what I did was take all three pairs, then add the points together to get totals. Changing the assumptions gets different results. Only one scenario has Cassar as #1.

 

[jack66]

I'm a numbers guy so I can appreciate attempts to quantify the seeds. It's usually the fairest way to go. Sometimes though, when it's this tight, numbers can be juggled to achieve whichever result we want.

There are times when subjectivity has to be brought into the equation. I don't know the make-up of the committee, but AC's upset over GS is going to be a huge elephant in the room when they get to 285.

 

[Fink]

Roar

Couple of comments/questions -- I have Cassar winning the common opponent over White because he beat Gable and White lost. Thus, on common opponents, Cassar is undefeated (5-0) and White is 4-1. Will they really give a winning percentage advantage when they are basically the same 25-1, 26-1, 27-1.

Still hard to see Cassar not getting quality wins over White if they use tiers.

 

[RoarLions1]

Roar

Couple of comments/questions -- I have Cassar winning the common opponent over White because he beat Gable and White lost. Thus, on common opponents, Cassar is undefeated (5-0) and White is 4-1. Will they really give a winning percentage advantage when they are basically the same 25-1, 26-1, 27-1.

Still hard to see Cassar not getting quality wins over White if they use tiers.

That's a great question. Only answer I have for you is that the model does not show a 5/5 split, only 10/0 is possible. Of course if their records were identical, the NCAA wouldn't have a choice, but the way it's written, I believe YES, they will give Steveson the points over White, and White the points over Cassar.

I agree on the Quality Wins too. Sure looks like Steveson and Cassar have more than White.

 

[psudotedu]

That's a great question. Only answer I have for you is that the model does not show a 5/5 split, only 10/0 is possible. Of course if their records were identical, the NCAA wouldn't have a choice, but the way it's written, I believe YES, they will give Steveson the points over White, and White the points over Cassar.

I agree on the Quality Wins too. Sure looks like Steveson and Cassar have more than White.

I don't see a split available for conference finish or common opponents either. Says 10/0 for each. Go to page 11 here: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...ing/d1/men/2018-19D1MWR_SelectionsProcess.pdf

Things are so close that I gotta think that they're going to use B10 champion as the final determiner. That and Cassar having the most recent win of the 3.

If White is given the #1, my concern is the message that sends going forward for B10 tourney participation. Meaning, I think Cassar is more likely to beat White in a rematch than he is to beat Gable in one - therefore, Cassar may have actually hurt his situation by winning in the final over just a MFF.

If we think participation is getting worse now, the more we see little seeding rewards for conference tourney wins, the more we'll see MFFs happening instead of big matches.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

I don't see a split available for conference finish either. Says 10/0. GO to page 11 here: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...ing/d1/men/2018-19D1MWR_SelectionsProcess.pdf

Things are so close that I gotta think that they're going to use B10 champion as the final determination. That and Cassar having the most recent win of the 3.

If White is given the #1, my concern is the message that sends going forward for B10 tourney participation. Meaning, I think Cassar is more likely to beat White in a rematch than he is to beat Gable in one - therefore, Cassar may have actually hurt his situation by winning in the final over just a MFF.

If we think participation is getting worse now, the more we see little seeding rewards for conference tourney wins, the more we'll see MFFs happening instead of big matches.

So true

 

[RoarLions1]

I don't see a split available for conference finish either. Says 10/0. Go to page 11 here: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...ing/d1/men/2018-19D1MWR_SelectionsProcess.pdf

Things are so close that I gotta think that they're going to use B10 champion as the final determiner. That and Cassar having the most recent win of the 3.

If White is given the #1, my concern is the message that sends going forward for B10 tourney participation. Meaning, I think Cassar is more likely to beat White in a rematch than he is to beat Gable in one - therefore, Cassar may have actually hurt his situation by winning in the final over just a MFF.

If we think participation is getting worse now, the more we see little seeding rewards for conference tourney wins, the more we'll see MFFs happening instead of big matches.

A MFF would have made it easier for the committee. Gable with no losses = #1, 1-loss White with a win over Cassar = #2, 1-loss Cassar, losing to White = #3.


.

 

[psudotedu]

A MFF would have made it easier for the committee. Gable with no losses = #1, 1-loss White with a win over Cassar = #2, 1-loss Cassar, losing to White = #3.


.

Yes, that's exactly my point. Cassar MFFing would have had him wrestling White in the Semi, who he is more likely to beat, to get into the final. If Cassar's win made White the #1, then he has Gable, who is more likely than White to beat him and send him to the backside and not into the final.

At the very least, if Cassar made White the #1, he did not improve his seeding situation for Nationals by winning the B10 championship.

 

[regularfan]

I am not going to argue that White has wrestled a tougher schedule although if you give the final 4 at-large spots to the people who were ranked the highest in the last coaches poll, White/Steveson have the most quality wins, followed by Cassar unless I am missing somebody. All their losses are to each other. I think a quality win counts the same as long as that person makes the tournament?

White (12-1): Nevills (Fresno), Stoll, Gremmell, Wood, Haines, Elam, Cassar, Thomas, Orndorff, Ngati, Andrews (twice)

Steveson (12-1): Nevills (Fresno), Stoll, Wood, Hemida, Jensen, Gilliand (twice), Jennings, White, Orndorff, Hillger (twice)

Cassar (10-1): Goodhart, Voss, Gremmell, Wood, Jensen, Parris, Steveson, Jensen (twice), Jennings, Singletary

 

[JTNPSU84]

I see WIN Magazine gave White the #1 ranking...Marinelli, Fix & White now #1 in final WIN rankings before NCAAs; Penn State top team

http://www.win-magazine.com/please-...in-rankings-feature-three-new-no-1-wrestlers/

 

[tylersmyth]

Use this...

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ch...ing/d1/men/2018-19D1MWR_SelectionsProcess.pdf

I'm aware what the criteria is, was White not ahead of Cassar in the coaches going into the conference tournaments?

 

[tylersmyth]

Bonus percentage should absolutely come into play. If I'm not mistaken, Cassar crushes them both in terms of bonus points. Throw in the fact that the Big 12 couldn't hold a candle to the Big 10 and it's:
1. Cassar
2. Steveson
3. White

I'll bet you anything you want to be that white isn't the 3 seed

 

[y2jriden]

Yes, that's exactly my point. Cassar MFFing would have had him wrestling White in the Semi, who he is more likely to beat, to get into the final. If Cassar's win made White the #1, then he has Gable, who is more likely than White to beat him and send him to the backside and not into the final.

At the very least, if Cassar made White the #1, he did not improve his seeding situation for Nationals by winning the B10 championship.

So while this is completely true, I hate the idea that the season is all about one weekend. No matter what happens, Anthony Cassar is the 2019 B1G Champion and no one can take that away from him. Is it worth never taking the chance to be a B1G champ for a better draw at nationals, maybe. But what if he gets upset in the quarters or something anyway. All you can do is win what is in front of you at the time and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[RoarLions1]

I'm aware what the criteria is, was White not ahead of Cassar in the coaches going into the conference tournaments?

What does it matter? Not being smart. The CR that comes out tomorrow is what will be used.

This is as close a seeding matter as I can remember involving three wrestlers. Nothing that's released tomorrow would surprise me.

 

[RoarLions1]

So while this is completely true, I hate the idea that the season is all about one weekend. No matter what happens, Anthony Cassar is the 2019 B1G Champion and no one can take that away from him. Is it worth never taking the chance to be a B1G champ for a better draw at nationals, maybe. But what if he gets upset in the quarters or something anyway. All you can do is win what is in front of you at the time and let the chips fall where they may.

Not sure I understand. Imo, it's not about one weekend. The entire season affects one's HTH's, Quality Wins, Coaches Ranking, RPI, Common Opponents and Win%. Unless I'm missing something.

 

[tylersmyth]

What does it matter? Not being smart. The CR that comes out tomorrow is what will be used.

This is as close a seeding matter as I can remember involving three wrestlers. Nothing that's released tomorrow would surprise me.

exactly, which is why I don't understand why you are so up in arms over the fact I said I "think" white gets the 1 seed. I've said I wouldn't be surprised either way but just made a prediction on why I think white gets the 1 and gave my reasoning for it. You don't have to agree with it, but it's not some out of left field prediction

 

[psudotedu]

Not sure I understand. Imo, it's not about one weekend. The entire season affects one's HTH's, Quality Wins, Coaches Ranking, RPI, Common Opponents and Win%. Unless I'm missing something.

That's correct. None of what we're talking about is solely dependent on Conference weekend. But, still, in another way, it really is about one weekend for the elite at each weight, right? ---- NCAA Tourney weekend.

 

[y2jriden]

Not sure I understand. Imo, it's not about one weekend. The entire season affects one's HTH's, Quality Wins, Coaches Ranking, RPI, Common Opponents and Win%. Unless I'm missing something.

medically forfeiting in the B1G tournament when you aren't injured so that you get a better seed or duck an opponent means that you are only interested in one weekend. i'm not sure if you really don't see where i'm coming from or if you're being obtuse here.

A MFF would have made it easier for the committee. Gable with no losses = #1, 1-loss White with a win over Cassar = #2, 1-loss Cassar, losing to White = #3.


.

I'm not saying here that you are suggesting that Cassar should have MFFed, only that it would have made the committee's decision easier in this case. There is a reason I didn't quote this post in my response.

Yes, that's exactly my point. Cassar MFFing would have had him wrestling White in the Semi, who he is more likely to beat, to get into the final. If Cassar's win made White the #1, then he has Gable, who is more likely than White to beat him and send him to the backside and not into the final.

At the very least, if Cassar made White the #1, he did not improve his seeding situation for Nationals by winning the B10 championship.

I am inferring here, possibly incorrectly, that he thinks Cassar should have MFFed.

I can go further on this topic, but I'll end it here.

 

[Maddog]

With last CR included:

White (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Haines-18, Elam-23, Cassar-3, Thomas-13, Orndorff-20, Ngati-30, Andrews-25 (twice)

Steveson (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Wood-4, Hemida-8, Jensen-9, Gilliand-19 (twice), Jennings-7, White-2, Orndorff-20, Hillger-6 (twice)

Cassar (10-1): Goodhart-21, Voss-14, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Jensen-9, Parris-5, Steveson-1, Jensen-9 (twice), Jennings-7, Singletary-10

 

[Fink]

Mad Dog -- you have Jensen on Cassar's list twice and left off Hilger. Cassar beat not only Jensen twice but Jennings twice although I don't think they count multiple wins.

As I understand it, each wrestler is compared against every other wrestler in the field. This creates a won/loss record. Then ranked in that order with some leeway where close enough. Thus, even though Gable lost at Big 10s, he is very important to the process. Without actually running the numbers, I am assuming that all three Cassar, White and Gable "win" over the other 30 people in the bracket. That leaves it to how the "paper" round robin between the three comes out.

I predict that Gable defeats White although this depends upon whether they use tiers for quality wins and coaches ranking. Gable scores 35 for H2H and RPI. White scores 20 for common opp. and qualifying event. It seems hard to believe that winning % wont be a split. Quality wins counts 20 -- by qualifiers only, White leads 11-10; however, most of his wins are over tiers 3 or lower (coaches rank below 15) while Gable's are tier 2 and 3. If Gable either is ranked higher or tiers are used, he beats White.

Cassar almost certainly beats Steveson on paper (H2H 25, Coaches rank 15, qualifying event 10 and possibly splits at quality wins and winning %).

Cassar v. White is tight -- White has 40 points for sue (H2H, RPI and QE) and at least a split on winning %. Cassar has 10 for common opponents and 5 for QE and the same analysis as Gable re quality wins, 1 fewer qualifier but higher qualifiers. If that carries the day, it will come down to coaches ranking.

 

[y2jriden]

That's correct. None of what we're talking about is solely dependent on Conference weekend. But, still, in another way, it really is about one weekend for the elite at each weight, right? ---- NCAA Tourney weekend.

That's what I thought you were saying. I don't believe that at all. Why didn't Nolf just MFF after the quarters then? Why take the chance that Berger twists his knee. His seed doesn't matter at all. So why wrestle any tough matches?

 

[psudotedu]

medically forfeiting in the B1G tournament when you aren't injured so that you get a better seed or duck an opponent means that you are only interested in one weekend. i'm not sure if you really don't see where i'm coming from or if you're being obtuse here

I am inferring here, possibly incorrectly, that he thinks Cassar should have MFFed.

Yes, you inferred incorrectly. Personally, yes, I'm very much against the MFFs.

Rather, I'm pointing out that we've created a system that is, effectively, rewarding MFFs and missing matches. So, we can't be all that surprised that the trend of MFFs in big matches is only getting worse.

 

[psudotedu]

That's what I thought you were saying. I don't believe that at all. Why didn't Nolf just MFF after the quarters then? Why take the chance that Berger twists his knee. His seed doesn't matter at all. So why wrestle any tough matches?

You're really not getting my intent here. I'm very much against this practice of MFFing. I'm only pointing out that we have a system that, not only doesn't punish it, but often rewards it. A White at #1 would be another dangerous precedent that could set up for more MFFing in the future.

Additionally, the NCAA tourney being all that matters is hardly a controversial viewpoint. Cael says this all the time.

 

[y2jriden]

Yes, you inferred incorrectly. Personally, yes, I'm very much against the MFFs.

Rather, I'm pointing out that we've created a system that is, effectively, rewarding MFFs and missing matches. So, we can't be all that surprised that the trend of MFFs in big matches is only getting worse.

Fair point. Has anything really changed though or is it just a mindset change? I was brought up in sports with the mindset that a true competitor competes, not does what's the best for the seeding process. So while it works out, I feel it's a total bush league move. And I'm not sure it's the NCAAs job to police Bush League tactics, a true competitor and good sportsman doesn't need to be bush.

Edit - read your second post. I understand now after the post I quoted. I think we're pretty much on the same page. I thought you were saying it should be done, and you are merely saying why it works. So we both hate it.

As for Cael saying only one weekend counts, that's the one thing I adamantly disagree with him on. I'm not sure he means that completely literally though. Given the right factors, I can see why you'd sit out injured guys to get to that weekend. It's the most important thing. But to sit out just to sit out for that weekend, I hope he's not saying that.

 

[jrod9]

With last CR included:

White (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Haines-18, Elam-23, Cassar-3, Thomas-13, Orndorff-20, Ngati-30, Andrews-25 (twice)

Steveson (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Wood-4, Hemida-8, Jensen-9, Gilliand (twice), Jennings-7, White-2, Orndorff-20, Hillger-6 (twice)

Cassar (10-1): Goodhart-21, Voss-14, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Jensen-9, Parris-5, Steveson-1, Jensen-9 (twice), Jennings-7, Singletary-10

Didn't Cassar beat Hillger in the dual?

 

[Maddog]

Mad Dog -- you have Jensen on Cassar's list twice and left off Hilger. Cassar beat not only Jensen twice but Jennings twice although I don't think they count multiple wins.

I just copied regularfan's list

 

[funkisfun12]

1 seed, 2 seed, just get to the semis on Friday night. If I'm not mistaken, PSU has a pretty darned good track record of late in that round.