Seed Projections

[psudotedu]

Fair point. Has anything really changed though or is it just a mindset change? I was brought up in sports with the mindset that a true competitor competes, not does what's the best for the seeding process. So while it works out, I feel it's a total bush league move. And I'm not sure it's the NCAAs job to police Bush League tactics, a true competitor and good sportsman doesn't need to be bush.

Edit - read your second post. I understand now after the post I quoted. I think we're pretty much on the same page. I thought you were saying it should be done, and you are merely saying why it works. So we both hate it.

Competitors always adapt and game the rules for advantages that they can gain blurring the lines of what's acceptable. That's why rules and regulations have to be updated periodically to keep up with it.

All it takes is for a few high ranked wrestlers to MFF and not get any kind of sanction for it before others start doing it expecting the same treatment -- then you have a problem on your hands.

I'd like to see, starting next year even, the Big 10 take conference records according to the team at each weight and not just the wrestler. That way, if Mike Carr misses his last match against N Lee, Illinois @141lb takes a loss for seeding purposes.

I also disagree with Cael on Nationals being all that matters, I was just pointing out that his opinion is more common than we care to admit.

 

[Fink]

Flo's rankings are out -- moved AC to 1. While it isn't the end all (sorry Willie), below are the records of AC, DW and GS re the top 5, 10 & 20.

Top 5 Top 10 Top 20
Cassar 2-1 7-1 11-1
Steveson 2-1 6-1 11-1
White 2-1 2-1 5-1

Cassar beat 2, 5, 7, 8 x2, 9 10, 11 x2, 16 and 20
Steveson beat 3, 5,6, 7 x2, 8, 11 x2, 12 and 14 x2
White beat 1, 5, 12, 13 and 15

 

[tomsc]

Although this thread is about possible seedings of the top 3 at 285, I want to make a comment about Cassar's match against Steveson. It was speculated that Cassar might have actually hurt his NCAA draw by beating Steveson, and that he might possibly have been better off Mfft'ing to Steveson. I think something important happened in that match against Steveson which could be the most important thing for Cassar to win the title. We all know how good Cassar is on his TD shots. But until that last blast double, Cassar had not taken a serious shot against either White or Steveson. He seemed to atypically hold back. Now he knows that he can convert and I think he will shoot with more confidence against either White or Steveson, whoever he's paired against. I think that could be huge!

 

[jack66]

With last CR included:

White (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Haines-18, Elam-23, Cassar-3, Thomas-13, Orndorff-20, Ngati-30, Andrews-25 (twice)

Steveson (12-1): Nevills-24 (Fresno), Stoll-11, Wood-4, Hemida-8, Jensen-9, Gilliand-19 (twice), Jennings-7, White-2, Orndorff-20, Hillger-6 (twice)

Cassar (10-1): Goodhart-21, Voss-14, Gremmell-26, Wood-4, Jensen-9, Parris-5, Steveson-1, Jensen-9 (twice), Jennings-7, Singletary-10

SOS???

I would argue that including all top-25 guys is too broad a brush. #20-25 guys don't often upset #1-3 guys.

Here's a more stringent SOS barometer, which includes only top-10 guys from your list.

Cassar (8-1)
Steveson (7-1)
White (2-1)

Three top 10 guys all year? Hard to convince me that White had a tougher schedule than either Gable or AC.

 

[McScoreley]

Not apples to apples because McFadden was undefeated but I remember thinking after Cenzo lost to IMar last night ... okay not the end of the world, he gets McFadden Friday night instead of IMar now.

I was too caught up in the post match high to GAF about any seeding but now settling down, it appears likely that win could have given White the 1 seed and Anthony a match with Gable in the semis. I can see the justification behind it but that just feels wrong IMO. Rewarding White over Gable for winning his conference and then White over Cassar for H2H is just flawed IMO because that'd imply the degree of difficulty for winning Big 12s is the same as Big Tens. Not all conference titles are equal, to say White should by default be over Gable because he won the Big 12 and then over Cassar due to H2H is just flawed IMO. The main issue seems to be, who gets Gable in the semis - it can only go:

1. White 2. Cassar 3. Gable or
1. Cassar 2. Gable 3. White

 

[psudotedu]

Although this thread is about possible seedings of the top 3 at 285, I want to make a comment about Cassar's match against Steveson. It was speculated that Cassar might have actually hurt his NCAA draw by beating Steveson, and that he might possibly have been better off Mfft'ing to Steveson. I think something important happened in that match against Steveson which could be the most important thing for Cassar to win the title. We all know how good Cassar is on his TD shots. But until that last blast double, Cassar had not taken a serious shot against either White or Steveson. He seemed to atypically hold back. Now he knows that he can convert and I think he will shoot with more confidence against either White or Steveson, whoever he's paired against. I think that could be huge!

That is all true. However, the point of the discussion is not to second-guess anything Cassar did or didn't do. I would never condone a MFF at any time unless someone is truly injured.

We've created a system that is not adequately sanctioning MFFs or missed matches. Similarly, the system is not adequately rewarding wrestlers that do compete when they could just as easy MFF. And, that is the point, giving White the #1 seed when all 3 HWTs are so close, effectively, devalues Cassar winning the B10 championship over Gable.

How can we have a system where winning a B10 Title does not improve your seed enough to make it worth more than just MFFing instead?

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Cassar has the ultimate tiebreaker: The painted gold necklace

 

[McScoreley]

That being said about seeding: For Anthony, you prefer he skips Gable until Saturday night but truth be told, assuming he's hot for the tournament again, Amar Dhesi (assuming he's 4th or 5th) presents a very unique challenge as well. Not like getting the 1 seed gives him a free walk to the finals. At least he's gotten a look at White and Gable now.

 

[NittanyChris]

Big 10 vs Big 12 Intermat Rankings

Flo's rankings are out -- moved AC to 1. While it isn't the end all (sorry Willie), below are the records of AC, DW and GS re the top 5, 10 & 20.

Top 5 Top 10 Top 20
Cassar 2-1 7-1 11-1
Steveson 2-1 6-1 11-1
White 2-1 2-1 5-1

Cassar beat 2, 5, 7, 8 x2, 9 10, 11 x2, 16 and 20
Steveson beat 3, 5,6, 7 x2, 8, 11 x2, 12 and 14 x2
White beat 1, 5, 12, 13 and 15

White's track record this year is clearly third among the three.

 

[LemonPie]

That being said about seeding: For Anthony, you prefer he skips Gable until Saturday night but truth be told, assuming he's hot for the tournament again, Amar Dhesi (assuming he's 4th or 5th) presents a very unique challenge as well. Not like getting the 1 seed gives him a free walk to the finals. At least he's gotten a look at White and Gable now.

More worried about Dhesi at 8 or 9 than at 4/5

 

[psudotedu]

That being said about seeding: For Anthony, you prefer he skips Gable until Saturday night but truth be told, assuming he's hot for the tournament again, Amar Dhesi (assuming he's 4th or 5th) presents a very unique challenge as well. Not like getting the 1 seed gives him a free walk to the finals. At least he's gotten a look at White and Gable now.

I like your thinking, however, Dhesi only has 11 matches on the year, not enough to even have an RPI. He could wind up anywhere -- even the 7 or 10 seed. If Cassar gets the #2, that's even more punishment for winning the B10 with a quarterfinal against last year's 3rd place finisher.

Let's hope that the seeding committee is above doing something like that.

 

[aalion]

Yes, that's exactly my point. Cassar MFFing would have had him wrestling White in the Semi, who he is more likely to beat, to get into the final. If Cassar's win made White the #1, then he has Gable, who is more likely than White to beat him and send him to the backside and not into the final.

At the very least, if Cassar made White the #1, he did not improve his seeding situation for Nationals by winning the B10 championship.

I think it is funny or ironic or something that you are saying (I think) that AC is more likely to beat White than Steveson

 

[wrestlinPSU]

The problem with that logic is that you are equating the Big 10 and the Big 12 when they are not even remotely comparable in terms of the level of talent at heavyweight. Cassar lost to White by one point two and a half months ago and Cassar beat the undefeated number one guy last weekend.

Yes, to me WHEN Cassar lost is very relevant. It was the beginning of the season and it was a 2 to 1.

 

[tomsc]

Yes, to me WHEN Cassar lost is very relevant. It was the beginning of the season and it was a 2 to 1.

Small correction, but the Cassar-White score was 3-2, one TD being the difference. One thing, at least, that was somewhat encouraging to me in that match was that Cassar was able to get out twice against a guy that was bigger and stronger than him. Cassar struggled on occasion on bottom at 197 last year, but no one has really kept him down at Hwt this year.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

I think White is a better hand fighter than Gable, but Gable has the better/more athletic hips. AC can beat either and both if he attacks. The young man has climbed a difficult path to be in this position and I highly doubt he cares who he has to beat in the semi or final. I think the same more or less applies to the other two elite big guys in his path.

 

[diggerpup]

So, there are nine other weights to discuss. What are we guessing we will see tomorrow ??

125
1. Rivera
2. Piccinninni
3. Bresser or Mueller ?

133
1. Fix
2. Micic or Suriano or Phillippi
3. “ “ “ “

141
1. Yanni
2. McKenna
3. NLee or Eierman

149
1. Ashnault
2. Micah Jordan
3. Finesilver or Kolodzik or Mauller ?

157
1. Nolf
2. Berger
3. Hidley

165
1. Bull
2. Cenzo
3. Shields or Marsteller ?

174
1. M Hall
2. D. Lewis
3. Zahid

184
1. MyMar
2. Rasheed or Zavatsky
3. “ “ “ “

197
1. Nickal
2. K Moore
3. Brucki or Weigel ??

285
1. Cassar
2. Stevenson
3. White

 

[tylersmyth]

because Stevenson lost his last match in the conference finals, I mean that matters. White won his conference tournament. I gave my prediction and my reasoning. I absolutely could be wrong but I think it goes
1. White
2. Cassar
3. Stevenson

Stevenson lost to Cassar h2h in the conference finals. White beat Cassar h2h and won his conference finals. So the 1 comes down to Cassar or white, white holds the h2h.

Bump

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Bump

ya, but where did you have Stoll?
I thought it would be White/Cassar Stev as well btw

 

[tylersmyth]

ya, but where did you have Stoll?
I thought it would be White/Cassar Stev as well btw

Haha on the his couch