Simulating the NCAA Tournament
- Thread starter regularfan
- Start date
Consolation semifinals
Nice bounce back win from Joseph. Kemerer must have gotten hurt in his semifinal loss night because he just got majored in this round. Pletcher also have a rough end to his standout four-year career. The fairy tale that is Jackson DiSario has now knocked off Picininni.
125 lbs.
#4 Jack Mueller (UVA) maj. #6 Drew Hildebradnt (CMU)
#28 Jackson DiSario (STAN) dec. #3 Nicholas Piccininni (OKST)
133 lbs.
#6 Austin DeSanto (IOWA) tf. #17 Taylor LaMont (UVU)
#10 Sammy Alvarez (RUT) tf. #21 Derek Spann (BUFF)
141 lbs.
#11 Zachary Sherman (UNC) dec. #1 Luke Pletcher (OSU)
#8 Joshua Heil dec. #3 Real Woods (STAN)
149 lbs.
#2 Austin O’Connor (UNC) fall #18 Jonathan Millner (APP)
#13 Max Thomsen (UNI) dec. #4 Brock Mauller (MIZZ)
157 lbs.
#2 Hayden Hidlay (NCST) maj. #9 Jacori Teemer (ASU)
#7 Josh Humphreys (LEH) tf. #20 Jake Tucker (MSU)
165 lbs.
#2 Vincenzo Joseph (PSU) dec. #4 Travis Wittlake (OKST)
#16 Zach Hartman (BUCK) dec. #10 Thomas Bullard (NCST)
174 lbs.
#9 Anthony Mantanona (OU) maj. #2 Michael Kemerer (IOWA)
#10 Mikey Labriola (NEB) fall #20 Connor Flynn (MIZZ)
184 lbs.
#2 Hunter Bolen (VT) tf. #12 Zach Carlson (SDSU)
#7 Taylor Venz dec. #4 Lou DePrez (BING)
197 lbs.
#11 Tanner Sloan (SDSU) dec. #16 Ethan Laird (RID)
#8 Patrick Brucki (PRIN) fall #14 Dakota Geer (OKST)
285 lbs.
#4 Tanner Hall (ASU) dec. #11 Gannon Gremmel (ISU)
#7 Demetrius Thomas (PITT) maj. #5 Matt Stencel (CMU)
Nice bounce back win from Joseph. Kemerer must have gotten hurt in his semifinal loss night because he just got majored in this round. Pletcher also have a rough end to his standout four-year career. The fairy tale that is Jackson DiSario has now knocked off Picininni.
125 lbs.
#4 Jack Mueller (UVA) maj. #6 Drew Hildebradnt (CMU)
#28 Jackson DiSario (STAN) dec. #3 Nicholas Piccininni (OKST)
133 lbs.
#6 Austin DeSanto (IOWA) tf. #17 Taylor LaMont (UVU)
#10 Sammy Alvarez (RUT) tf. #21 Derek Spann (BUFF)
141 lbs.
#11 Zachary Sherman (UNC) dec. #1 Luke Pletcher (OSU)
#8 Joshua Heil dec. #3 Real Woods (STAN)
149 lbs.
#2 Austin O’Connor (UNC) fall #18 Jonathan Millner (APP)
#13 Max Thomsen (UNI) dec. #4 Brock Mauller (MIZZ)
157 lbs.
#2 Hayden Hidlay (NCST) maj. #9 Jacori Teemer (ASU)
#7 Josh Humphreys (LEH) tf. #20 Jake Tucker (MSU)
165 lbs.
#2 Vincenzo Joseph (PSU) dec. #4 Travis Wittlake (OKST)
#16 Zach Hartman (BUCK) dec. #10 Thomas Bullard (NCST)
174 lbs.
#9 Anthony Mantanona (OU) maj. #2 Michael Kemerer (IOWA)
#10 Mikey Labriola (NEB) fall #20 Connor Flynn (MIZZ)
184 lbs.
#2 Hunter Bolen (VT) tf. #12 Zach Carlson (SDSU)
#7 Taylor Venz dec. #4 Lou DePrez (BING)
197 lbs.
#11 Tanner Sloan (SDSU) dec. #16 Ethan Laird (RID)
#8 Patrick Brucki (PRIN) fall #14 Dakota Geer (OKST)
285 lbs.
#4 Tanner Hall (ASU) dec. #11 Gannon Gremmel (ISU)
#7 Demetrius Thomas (PITT) maj. #5 Matt Stencel (CMU)
Placing Matches
Rough landing for Joseph. Brooks and Rasheed both end their tournaments with very strong showings. Looking forward to championship finals tonight at 8 p.m.!
125 lbs.
3RD: #4 Jack Mueller (UVA) maj. #28 Jackson DiSario STAN)
5TH: #3 Nicholas Piccininni (OKST) fall #6 Drew Hildebrandt (CMU)
7TH: #10 Jakob Camacho (NCST) tf. #5 Devin Schroder (PUR)
133 lbs.
3RD: #10 Sammy Alvarez (RUT) dec. #6 Austin DeSanto (IOWA)
5TH: #21 Derek Spann (BUFF) dec. #17 Taylor LaMont (UVU)
7TH: #3 Charles Tucker (COR) dec. #19 Allan Hart (MIZZ)
141 lbs.
3RD: #11 Zachary Sherman (UNC) dec. #8 Josh Heil (CAMP)
5TH: #1 Luke Pletcher (OSU) dec. #3 Real Woods (STAN)
7TH: #4 Ian Parker (ISU) dec. #18 Mitch Moore (VT)
149 lbs.
3RD: #2 Austin O’Connor (UNC) dec. #13 Max Thomsen (UNI)
5TH: #4 Brock Mauller (MIZZ) tf. #18 Jonathan Millner (APP)
7TH: #14 Andrew Alirez (UNCO) maj. #15 Kizhan Clarke (AMER)
157 lbs.
3RD: #7 Josh Humphreys (LEH) dec. #2 Hayden Hidlay (NCST)
5TH: #20 Jake Tucker (MSU) dec. #9 Jacori Teemer (ASU)
7TH: #8 Kaleb Young (IOWA) maj. #16 Jared Franek (NDSU)
165 lbs.
3RD: #16 Zach Hartman (BUCK) tf. #2 Vincenzo Joseph (PSU)
5TH: #4 Travis Wittlake (OKST) dec. #10 Thomas Bullard (NCST)
7TH: #8 Evan Wick (WISC) maj. #3 Shane Griffith (STAN)
174 lbs.
3RD: #10 Mikey Labriola (NEB) dec. #9 Anthony Mantanona (OU)
5TH: #2 Michael Kemerer (IOWA) fall #20 Connor Flynn (MIZZ)
7TH: #3 Jordan Kutler (LEH) dec. #12 Joseph Smith (OKST)
184 lbs.
3RD: #7 Taylor Venz (NEB) dec. #2 Hunter Bolen (VT)
5TH: #4 Lou DePrez (BING) maj. #12 Zach Carlson (SDSU)
7TH: #3 Aaron Brooks (PSU) maj. #6 Cameron Caffey (MSU)
197 lbs.
3RD: #8 Patrick Brucki (PRIN) fall #11 Tanner Sloan (SDSU)
5TH: #14 Dakota Geer (OKST) dec. #16 Ethan Laird (RID)
7TH: #21 Shakur Rasheed (PSU) dec. #5 Jacob Warner (IOWA)
285 lbs.
3RD: #7 Demetrius Thomas (PITT) dec. #4 Tanner Hall (ASU)
5TH: #11 Gannon Gremmel (ISU) dec. #5 Matt Stencel (CMU)
7TH: #14 Carter Isley (UNI) maj. #9 Jordan Wood (LEH)
Rough landing for Joseph. Brooks and Rasheed both end their tournaments with very strong showings. Looking forward to championship finals tonight at 8 p.m.!
125 lbs.
3RD: #4 Jack Mueller (UVA) maj. #28 Jackson DiSario STAN)
5TH: #3 Nicholas Piccininni (OKST) fall #6 Drew Hildebrandt (CMU)
7TH: #10 Jakob Camacho (NCST) tf. #5 Devin Schroder (PUR)
133 lbs.
3RD: #10 Sammy Alvarez (RUT) dec. #6 Austin DeSanto (IOWA)
5TH: #21 Derek Spann (BUFF) dec. #17 Taylor LaMont (UVU)
7TH: #3 Charles Tucker (COR) dec. #19 Allan Hart (MIZZ)
141 lbs.
3RD: #11 Zachary Sherman (UNC) dec. #8 Josh Heil (CAMP)
5TH: #1 Luke Pletcher (OSU) dec. #3 Real Woods (STAN)
7TH: #4 Ian Parker (ISU) dec. #18 Mitch Moore (VT)
149 lbs.
3RD: #2 Austin O’Connor (UNC) dec. #13 Max Thomsen (UNI)
5TH: #4 Brock Mauller (MIZZ) tf. #18 Jonathan Millner (APP)
7TH: #14 Andrew Alirez (UNCO) maj. #15 Kizhan Clarke (AMER)
157 lbs.
3RD: #7 Josh Humphreys (LEH) dec. #2 Hayden Hidlay (NCST)
5TH: #20 Jake Tucker (MSU) dec. #9 Jacori Teemer (ASU)
7TH: #8 Kaleb Young (IOWA) maj. #16 Jared Franek (NDSU)
165 lbs.
3RD: #16 Zach Hartman (BUCK) tf. #2 Vincenzo Joseph (PSU)
5TH: #4 Travis Wittlake (OKST) dec. #10 Thomas Bullard (NCST)
7TH: #8 Evan Wick (WISC) maj. #3 Shane Griffith (STAN)
174 lbs.
3RD: #10 Mikey Labriola (NEB) dec. #9 Anthony Mantanona (OU)
5TH: #2 Michael Kemerer (IOWA) fall #20 Connor Flynn (MIZZ)
7TH: #3 Jordan Kutler (LEH) dec. #12 Joseph Smith (OKST)
184 lbs.
3RD: #7 Taylor Venz (NEB) dec. #2 Hunter Bolen (VT)
5TH: #4 Lou DePrez (BING) maj. #12 Zach Carlson (SDSU)
7TH: #3 Aaron Brooks (PSU) maj. #6 Cameron Caffey (MSU)
197 lbs.
3RD: #8 Patrick Brucki (PRIN) fall #11 Tanner Sloan (SDSU)
5TH: #14 Dakota Geer (OKST) dec. #16 Ethan Laird (RID)
7TH: #21 Shakur Rasheed (PSU) dec. #5 Jacob Warner (IOWA)
285 lbs.
3RD: #7 Demetrius Thomas (PITT) dec. #4 Tanner Hall (ASU)
5TH: #11 Gannon Gremmel (ISU) dec. #5 Matt Stencel (CMU)
7TH: #14 Carter Isley (UNI) maj. #9 Jordan Wood (LEH)
I knew there were a lot of upsets but just out of curiosity I added up the seeds from my "All-Americans" vs. last years and this simulation had a total of 639 while last years All-Americans had a total of 459.
The means this year's All-Americans had an average seed of 7.9 while last year was 5.65. If every favorite won every match it would be a 4.5 as that is the average of 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8.
I think where I might have gotten a little off track is that I should have had more columns for decisions in my random number generator. Knowing how close all these guys are I would guess 90% of the matches I used just the 2 columns. Maybe right around 2/3 of the matches I used only column 1.
I think 1-3 pt. favorite and 4-7 point favorite just left too much range and it was not fair to say a 4 pt. favorite in wrestlestat had the same chance as being upset as a 7 pt. favorite. Just going off memory it seems like a lot of guys in 5-8 pt. favorite range where just hitting unlucky numbers.
If I had to do it differently, I would make the ranges. If I go into quarantine fully, I might do this again. I was also surprised in wrestlestat how many of the lower seeds were actually favored.
1 pt.: Make favorite 70% to win (66% in my simulation)
2-3 pts.: Make favorite 75% to win (66% in my simulation)
4-5 pts.: Make favorite: 83% to win (80% in my simulation)
6-7 pts. Make favorite 90% to win (80% in my simulation)
8-11 pts. Make favorite: 95% to win (90% in my simulation)
12-14 pts.: Make favorite 97% to win (90% in my simulation)
Techs: Make favorite 98% to win (96% in my simulation)
Fall: Make favorite 99% to win (98% in my simulation)
I would love to see the wrestlestat math on how close my projections are to what he is seeing in reality but I don't know that this is even possible.
The means this year's All-Americans had an average seed of 7.9 while last year was 5.65. If every favorite won every match it would be a 4.5 as that is the average of 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8.
I think where I might have gotten a little off track is that I should have had more columns for decisions in my random number generator. Knowing how close all these guys are I would guess 90% of the matches I used just the 2 columns. Maybe right around 2/3 of the matches I used only column 1.
I think 1-3 pt. favorite and 4-7 point favorite just left too much range and it was not fair to say a 4 pt. favorite in wrestlestat had the same chance as being upset as a 7 pt. favorite. Just going off memory it seems like a lot of guys in 5-8 pt. favorite range where just hitting unlucky numbers.
If I had to do it differently, I would make the ranges. If I go into quarantine fully, I might do this again. I was also surprised in wrestlestat how many of the lower seeds were actually favored.
1 pt.: Make favorite 70% to win (66% in my simulation)
2-3 pts.: Make favorite 75% to win (66% in my simulation)
4-5 pts.: Make favorite: 83% to win (80% in my simulation)
6-7 pts. Make favorite 90% to win (80% in my simulation)
8-11 pts. Make favorite: 95% to win (90% in my simulation)
12-14 pts.: Make favorite 97% to win (90% in my simulation)
Techs: Make favorite 98% to win (96% in my simulation)
Fall: Make favorite 99% to win (98% in my simulation)
I would love to see the wrestlestat math on how close my projections are to what he is seeing in reality but I don't know that this is even possible.
Nonetheless, the finals will go on!
125 lbs.
#1 Spencer Lee (IOWA) vs. #2 Pat Glory (PRIN)
133 lbs.
#1 Sebastian Rivera (NW) vs. #2 Seth Gross (WISC)
141 lbs.
#2 Nick Lee (PSU) vs. #5 Dom Demas (OKLA)
149 lbs.
#1 Pat Lugo (IOWA) vs. #3 Sammy Sasso (OSU)
157 lbs.
#1 Ryan Deakin (NW) vs. #3 David Carr (ISU)
165 lbs.
#5 Isaiah White (NEB) vs. #6 Josh Shields (ASU)
174 lbs.
#1 Mark Hall (PSU) dec. #6 Kaleb Romero (OSU)
184 lbs.
#11 Abe Assad (IOWA) vs. #17 Noah Stewart (ARMY)
197 lbs.
#2 Noah Adams (WVU) vs. #4 Ben Darmstadt (COR)
285 lbs.
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN) vs. #2 Mason Parris (MICH)
125 lbs.
#1 Spencer Lee (IOWA) vs. #2 Pat Glory (PRIN)
133 lbs.
#1 Sebastian Rivera (NW) vs. #2 Seth Gross (WISC)
141 lbs.
#2 Nick Lee (PSU) vs. #5 Dom Demas (OKLA)
149 lbs.
#1 Pat Lugo (IOWA) vs. #3 Sammy Sasso (OSU)
157 lbs.
#1 Ryan Deakin (NW) vs. #3 David Carr (ISU)
165 lbs.
#5 Isaiah White (NEB) vs. #6 Josh Shields (ASU)
174 lbs.
#1 Mark Hall (PSU) dec. #6 Kaleb Romero (OSU)
184 lbs.
#11 Abe Assad (IOWA) vs. #17 Noah Stewart (ARMY)
197 lbs.
#2 Noah Adams (WVU) vs. #4 Ben Darmstadt (COR)
285 lbs.
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN) vs. #2 Mason Parris (MICH)
@regularfan IF you do it again? We took a vote and it is now a board requirement that you repeat this exercise every three days until the season starts again. Or, until the schedule comes out, whichever comes first.
Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, and Minnesota have combined to win the last 13 national titles.
Championship finals are in the book
These left a bad taste in my virtual mouth. I am going to adjust my odds and look into running this tournament again.
It's a simulation right? Its not like I have any place I am allowed to be for the next couple weeks ... .
125 lbs.
#1 Spencer Lee (IOWA) maj. #2 Pat Glory (PRIN)
Wrestlestat predicts a 12-4 major for Lee and we put the random number generator to work and it confirms the result, Lee is a three-time national champion with a major decision.
133 lbs.
#2 Seth Gross dec. #1 Sebastian Rivera (NW)
Wrestlestat goes against the seeds here and predicts a 7-5 win for Gross. Throw that in the random number generator and it also confirms that result. Seth Gross is now a two-time national champion as the Badgers move into the top 10 of the team standings.
141 lbs.
#5 Dom Demas (OU) dec. #2 Nick Lee (PSU)
Wrestlestat predicts a 9-8 Lee decision. However, we throw that in the random number generator and we have our first result reversal of the night as the Sooners get a national champion.
149 lbs.
#1 Pat Lugo (IOWA) dec. #3 Sammy Sasso (OSU)
Pat Lugo predicted for a 6-5 win over Sasso in wrestlestat, and the random number generator confirms that decision. The Hawkeyes have two national champions in the first four weights.
157 lbs.
#3 David Carr (ISU) dec. #1 Ryan Deakin (NW)
Wrestlestat is going with the upset by seeds here and predicts Carr to be a 7-5 winner. Random number generator apparently only dislikes Nick Lee through the first five matches and Iowa State will stand atop the podium at 157 lbs.
165 lbs.
#5 Isaiah White (NEB) dec. #6 Josh Shields (ASU)
Isaiah White has finally broken through against the top tier of 165 lbs. and wrestlestat says he is going to win by a 4-3 score. Random number generator is in his favor and the Big 10 is now home to 4 of the first 6 national champions. Soon to be 5 of 7, just a matter of which way the next match goes.
174 lbs.
#6 Kaleb Romero dec. #1 Mark Hall (PSU)
We are looking for our second bonus point win of the night and wrestlestat sees one coming with a 15-2 win predicted for Hall. However, the random number generator just really does not like the Penn State wrestlers tonight and it will be Kaleb Romero as your national champion for the Buckeyes. There was a 1/10 chance of Hall losing with that predicted result using my numbers original numbers in those round of simulation.
184 lbs.
#11 Abe Assad (IOWA) dec. #17 Noah Stewart (ARMY)
In the most surprising finals matchup, wrestlestat predicts Assad will be an 11-2 winner in his rookie season. Random number generator says it will be Hawkeyes win but only by decision as Assad is true freshman national champion.
197 lbs.
#2 Noah Adams (WVU) vs. #4 Ben Darmstadt (COR)
First match of the night without a Big 10 wrestler and wrestlestat is predicting an 8-7 win for Adams. However, random number generator does not only hate Penn State apparently as it reverses the result and also gives the major to Darmstadt who must have turned him being a hammer on top. The Big Red have a national champion along with the second bonus points of the championship.
285 lbs.
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN) vs. #2 Mason Parris (MICH)
These two met at the Big 10 just two weeks ago with Steveson winning 8-6. Wrestlestat says this will be an 8-7 win for Steveson and the random number confirms that decision as the Gophers in the last match of the night have their national champion.
Final Team Scores
1. Iowa 128
2. Penn State 74.5
3. Ohio State 64
4. Arizona State 59.5
5. Nebraska 58.5
6. Oklahoma State 52.5
7. Princeton 50
8. Iowa State 49.5
9. Wisconsin 43.5
10. Lehigh 41
High Scoring wrestlers
1. Spencer Lee (IOWA) 28
2. Seth Gross (WISC) 24.5
3. Ben Darmstadt (COR) 24.5
4. Gable Steveson (MINN) 24
5. Abe Assad (IOWA) 23
6. Pat Glory (PRIN) 22.5
7. Pat Lugo (IOWA) 22.5
8. David Carr (ISU) 22.5
9. Isaiah White (NEB) 22.5
10. Dom Demas (OU) 21.5
Top over performing teams (team score above seeds with no bonus)
Arizona State +26.5
Oklahoma + 24.5
North Carolina +19.5
South Dakota State +19.5
Army West Point +19
Missouri +18.5
North Dakota State +13.5
Bucknell +13.5
Rutgers +12.5
Campbell +12
Nebraska +11.5
Appalachian State +11.5
Iowa State +11
Buffalo +11
Wisconsin +10
Northern Colorado +10
Most underperforming teams
Purdue -28
Northwestern -10
Minnesota -4.5
Ohio State -3
Illinois -3
Penn State -2
Clarion -2
These left a bad taste in my virtual mouth. I am going to adjust my odds and look into running this tournament again.
It's a simulation right? Its not like I have any place I am allowed to be for the next couple weeks ... .
125 lbs.
#1 Spencer Lee (IOWA) maj. #2 Pat Glory (PRIN)
Wrestlestat predicts a 12-4 major for Lee and we put the random number generator to work and it confirms the result, Lee is a three-time national champion with a major decision.
133 lbs.
#2 Seth Gross dec. #1 Sebastian Rivera (NW)
Wrestlestat goes against the seeds here and predicts a 7-5 win for Gross. Throw that in the random number generator and it also confirms that result. Seth Gross is now a two-time national champion as the Badgers move into the top 10 of the team standings.
141 lbs.
#5 Dom Demas (OU) dec. #2 Nick Lee (PSU)
Wrestlestat predicts a 9-8 Lee decision. However, we throw that in the random number generator and we have our first result reversal of the night as the Sooners get a national champion.
149 lbs.
#1 Pat Lugo (IOWA) dec. #3 Sammy Sasso (OSU)
Pat Lugo predicted for a 6-5 win over Sasso in wrestlestat, and the random number generator confirms that decision. The Hawkeyes have two national champions in the first four weights.
157 lbs.
#3 David Carr (ISU) dec. #1 Ryan Deakin (NW)
Wrestlestat is going with the upset by seeds here and predicts Carr to be a 7-5 winner. Random number generator apparently only dislikes Nick Lee through the first five matches and Iowa State will stand atop the podium at 157 lbs.
165 lbs.
#5 Isaiah White (NEB) dec. #6 Josh Shields (ASU)
Isaiah White has finally broken through against the top tier of 165 lbs. and wrestlestat says he is going to win by a 4-3 score. Random number generator is in his favor and the Big 10 is now home to 4 of the first 6 national champions. Soon to be 5 of 7, just a matter of which way the next match goes.
174 lbs.
#6 Kaleb Romero dec. #1 Mark Hall (PSU)
We are looking for our second bonus point win of the night and wrestlestat sees one coming with a 15-2 win predicted for Hall. However, the random number generator just really does not like the Penn State wrestlers tonight and it will be Kaleb Romero as your national champion for the Buckeyes. There was a 1/10 chance of Hall losing with that predicted result using my numbers original numbers in those round of simulation.
184 lbs.
#11 Abe Assad (IOWA) dec. #17 Noah Stewart (ARMY)
In the most surprising finals matchup, wrestlestat predicts Assad will be an 11-2 winner in his rookie season. Random number generator says it will be Hawkeyes win but only by decision as Assad is true freshman national champion.
197 lbs.
#2 Noah Adams (WVU) vs. #4 Ben Darmstadt (COR)
First match of the night without a Big 10 wrestler and wrestlestat is predicting an 8-7 win for Adams. However, random number generator does not only hate Penn State apparently as it reverses the result and also gives the major to Darmstadt who must have turned him being a hammer on top. The Big Red have a national champion along with the second bonus points of the championship.
285 lbs.
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN) vs. #2 Mason Parris (MICH)
These two met at the Big 10 just two weeks ago with Steveson winning 8-6. Wrestlestat says this will be an 8-7 win for Steveson and the random number confirms that decision as the Gophers in the last match of the night have their national champion.
Final Team Scores
1. Iowa 128
2. Penn State 74.5
3. Ohio State 64
4. Arizona State 59.5
5. Nebraska 58.5
6. Oklahoma State 52.5
7. Princeton 50
8. Iowa State 49.5
9. Wisconsin 43.5
10. Lehigh 41
High Scoring wrestlers
1. Spencer Lee (IOWA) 28
2. Seth Gross (WISC) 24.5
3. Ben Darmstadt (COR) 24.5
4. Gable Steveson (MINN) 24
5. Abe Assad (IOWA) 23
6. Pat Glory (PRIN) 22.5
7. Pat Lugo (IOWA) 22.5
8. David Carr (ISU) 22.5
9. Isaiah White (NEB) 22.5
10. Dom Demas (OU) 21.5
Top over performing teams (team score above seeds with no bonus)
Arizona State +26.5
Oklahoma + 24.5
North Carolina +19.5
South Dakota State +19.5
Army West Point +19
Missouri +18.5
North Dakota State +13.5
Bucknell +13.5
Rutgers +12.5
Campbell +12
Nebraska +11.5
Appalachian State +11.5
Iowa State +11
Buffalo +11
Wisconsin +10
Northern Colorado +10
Most underperforming teams
Purdue -28
Northwestern -10
Minnesota -4.5
Ohio State -3
Illinois -3
Penn State -2
Clarion -2
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