Something to keep in mind vs Iowa Defense:

[stormingnorm]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

 

[Grant Green]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

I think "havoc" is the stat you are looking at.
PSU defense ranks #3 in havoc. Iowa defense ranks #95

 

[LionHoya]

Fascinating stats. Makes me feel a bit better about the PSU OL being able to handle Iowa's defensive front seven.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

Penn State always has better stats/athletes than Iowa (and MSU/Wiscy/etc), and yet somehow traveling to their house (esp at night) rarely ever looks as such. I hope State beats the holy hell out of the children of the corn, but based on similar past experiences, I certainly won’t be surprised if they don’t.

 

[Ceasar]

Penn State always has better stats/athletes than Iowa (and MSU/Wiscy/etc), and yet somehow traveling to their house (esp at night) rarely ever looks as such. I hope State beats the holy hell out of the children of the corn, but based on similar past experiences, I certainly won’t be surprised if they don’t.

It's all about matchups. There is little doubt PSU is more explosive and more talented than Iowa and MSU. But those teams want to play a ball control, grind it out low scoring game. If they succeed it's going to be tough, just as it was at Iowa two years ago and vs. MSU each of the past two years. On the other hand, last year we scored 31 on IA and but for a horrific first quarter would have blown them out, and in 2016 we blew out MSU.

 

[Grant Green]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

one issue though. Iowa offense is 21st in havoc allowed and PSU offense is 87th. May be a net neutral stat.

 

[WDLion]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

Those stats say as much about the Penn State offense as the Iowa defense.

 

[bcspsu]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

And yet they'll probably play like the 1985 Chicago Bears on Saturday night.

 

[WDLion]

Those stats don't say ANYTHING about the PSU Offense (they compared the Iowa D and the PSU D)

OK I took them as offensive stats. My mistake.

 

[lionville]

Look for a lot of grabbing (AKA: holding) by the Iowa OL, which will be ignored by the BIG crew of blind officials.

 

[Waste Management Consultant]

And yet they'll probably play like the 1985 Chicago Bears on Saturday night.

God, I hope not. Kind of like the Steelers defense having to play Tom Brady every weekend even when it really isn’t Tom Brady.

 

[Grant Green]

True that

But are you sure the PSU offense is that low (high) this year...… I thought they'd be more middle-of-the-road?

7 sacks and 31 TFL allowed through 5 games doesn't seem like it should be that poorly ranked.... and Iowa is at, if my math is correct, 14 sacks and 28 TFL allowed (but I am not sure where you are finding the rankings, and exactly what they may be putting into their "havoc" algorithm).

I'm sure you can play with the algorithm to vary the results, but the one I use yielded this (sorry for the formatting).

Rank Team Offensive Plays Off INT Off Fumbles TFL Allowed Off Havoc Allowed
1 Oregon State 296 0 1 15 5.41%
2 Wyoming 294 1 1 15 5.78%
3 Washington State 285 3 3 13 6.67%
4 Georgia 310 1 3 18 7.10%
5 Utah 338 6 4 14 7.10%
6 Boston College 391 3 5 20 7.16%
7 Iowa State 332 0 3 21 7.23%
8 Louisiana-Lafayette 360 1 5 21 7.50%
9 North Carolina State 280 2 6 13 7.50%
10 Texas Tech 283 3 4 15 7.77%
11 Duke 397 2 6 23 7.81%
12 Louisiana-Monroe 356 2 11 15 7.87%
13 Clemson 279 0 3 19 7.89%
14 Temple 316 3 5 17 7.91%
15 Wisconsin 278 1 5 16 7.91%
16 Texas 273 2 9 11 8.06%
17 Washington 343 6 3 19 8.16%
18 Colorado 329 5 5 17 8.21%
19 Alabama 303 6 6 13 8.25%
20 Marshall 253 1 7 13 8.30%
21 Iowa 265 0 7 15 8.30%
22 Oregon 258 2 2 18 8.53%
23 San Jose State 334 1 3 25 8.68%
24 Michigan State 299 1 4 21 8.70%
25 Hawai'i 284 1 4 20 8.80%
26 Coastal Carolina 342 2 8 21 9.06%
27 Army 275 2 4 19 9.09%
28 Tulane 355 9 8 16 9.30%
29 Appalachian State 398 6 6 25 9.30%
30 Oklahoma 364 6 4 24 9.34%
31 SMU 276 2 5 19 9.42%
32 Notre Dame 253 2 0 22 9.49%
33 Missouri 295 6 2 20 9.49%
34 LSU 263 1 10 14 9.51%
35 Wake Forest 283 2 6 19 9.54%
36 Western Michigan 365 0 8 27 9.59%
37 Air Force 385 3 6 28 9.61%
38 South Carolina 312 2 4 24 9.62%
39 Georgia State 237 6 3 14 9.70%
40 Toledo 410 3 6 31 9.76%
41 Florida International 337 4 5 24 9.79%
42 Ohio State 304 4 4 22 9.87%
43 Indiana 354 5 7 23 9.89%
44 Buffalo 282 3 1 24 9.93%
45 Western Kentucky 320 3 5 24 10.00%
46 Louisiana Tech 278 0 7 21 10.07%
47 Mississippi State 258 1 4 21 10.08%
48 Pittsburgh 354 4 4 28 10.17%
49 Utah State 265 4 6 17 10.19%
50 New Mexico 359 4 8 25 10.31%
51 Troy 329 3 8 23 10.33%
52 Fresno State 251 2 5 19 10.36%
53 Arkansas 317 5 5 23 10.41%
54 Texas A&M 378 2 5 33 10.58%
55 Ohio 291 3 7 21 10.65%
56 Florida 366 7 4 28 10.66%
57 Baylor 373 3 12 25 10.72%
58 UAB 354 4 10 24 10.73%
59 Bowling Green 240 4 6 16 10.83%
60 Arizona State 378 5 7 29 10.85%
61 Arizona 267 7 3 19 10.86%
62 Stanford 264 3 3 23 10.98%
63 USC 327 1 3 32 11.01%
64 Vanderbilt 312 3 6 26 11.22%
65 Rutgers 329 1 14 22 11.25%
66 Central Michigan 337 9 7 22 11.28%
67 Boise State 283 3 12 17 11.31%
68 Michigan 262 2 5 23 11.45%
69 Kentucky 348 5 10 25 11.49%
70 Virginia Tech 328 4 6 28 11.59%
71 BYU 366 4 7 32 11.75%
72 UCF 383 2 7 36 11.75%
73 Mississippi 271 1 7 24 11.81%
74 Cincinnati 380 3 6 36 11.84%
75 Maryland 287 3 5 26 11.85%
76 Georgia Southern 337 3 5 32 11.87%
77 North Texas 353 4 10 28 11.90%
78 East Carolina 260 5 5 21 11.92%
79 TCU 352 4 6 32 11.93%
80 Houston 333 2 6 32 12.01%
81 Kansas State 332 3 3 34 12.05%
82 Auburn 307 2 5 30 12.05%
83 Ball State 314 3 10 25 12.10%
84 Liberty 347 5 7 30 12.10%
85 North Carolina 304 4 2 31 12.17%
86 West Virginia 303 4 2 31 12.21%
87 Penn State 319 4 7 28 12.23%
88 Texas State 368 2 12 31 12.23%
89 Middle Tennessee 283 5 6 24 12.37%
90 UTSA 344 8 1 34 12.50%
91 California 240 4 2 24 12.50%
92 Tennessee 310 1 8 30 12.58%
93 Oklahoma State 356 7 2 36 12.64%
94 Arkansas State 268 3 3 28 12.69%
95 Colorado State 322 3 6 32 12.73%
96 Syracuse 227 1 7 21 12.78%
97 UCLA 374 5 7 36 12.83%
98 UTEP 280 3 6 27 12.86%
99 Illinois 349 2 6 37 12.89%
100 Northern Illinois 278 4 0 32 12.95%
101 San Diego State 276 4 6 26 13.04%
102 Charlotte 221 0 13 16 13.12%
103 Rice 287 7 6 25 13.24%
104 Massachusetts 324 8 3 32 13.27%
105 Miami (Ohio) 352 6 8 33 13.35%
106 Navy 304 2 4 35 13.49%
107 Southern Mississippi 237 2 3 27 13.50%
108 Minnesota 312 4 8 31 13.78%
109 Eastern Michigan 292 5 9 27 14.04%
110 Virginia 280 5 5 30 14.29%
111 Kansas 335 7 7 34 14.33%
112 Northwestern 348 7 6 37 14.37%
113 Tulsa 351 9 12 31 14.81%
114 South Alabama 294 4 7 33 14.97%
115 Memphis 298 7 7 31 15.10%
116 UNLV 270 2 7 32 15.19%
117 New Mexico State 315 1 7 40 15.24%
118 Florida Atlantic 395 3 7 51 15.44%
119 Purdue 365 2 7 48 15.62%
120 Florida State 271 0 7 36 15.87%
121 Louisville 262 2 6 34 16.03%
122 Old Dominion 358 7 8 43 16.20%
123 Nevada 275 0 10 35 16.36%
124 Nebraska 357 5 15 39 16.53%
125 Miami (Florida) 275 2 8 36 16.73%
126 Connecticut 269 6 7 32 16.73%
127 South Florida 278 5 4 38 16.91%
128 Kent State 249 4 7 33 17.67%
129 Georgia Tech 334 5 9 50 19.16%
130 Akron 257 4 9 37 19.46%

 

[PSUcup1]

This is good stuff... thanks for the info guys!!

 

[Waste Management Consultant]

What’s interesting is that every team PSU beat except Purdue is ranked ahead of PSU in that metric. Also, this might be one of the very few times The State University of New Jersey is ranked ahead of PSU in a football statistic. Not sure how this translates other than a statistic for the sake of statistics?

 

[Grant Green]

Thanks for taking the time to post


But those figures for Iowa aren't correct.... maybe just not updated this week (if I had to guess, they haven't inputted the numbers vs UMich - - - - because the total offensive plays is definitely low).
I'd have to double check for PSU..... but if Iowa's are not updated, PSU is probably missing the Purdue game as well.

There shouldn't be much of a separation between Iowa and PSU using those metrics.

Hmmm, they're coming from the link below. I don't have time to compare with others. Let me know if you have another source that says different.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2019/national/index.html

 

[emertmakeshiteup]

Nice work and thank you!

 

[Grant Green]

Good eye. Thanks. Can I get you to check all of my stats? Easy to overlook stuff when you stare at so many numbers.
I think the Havoc allowed data is off, but the havoc by(defense) is correct. Not sure what happened but will try to fix later.

 

[heckmans]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

IDK...Iowa held UM to 10 point and captain khaki pants says their offense is humming. Could be a long night for Mr Clifford.

 

[Locolion]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")


Iowa Defense.... Sacks and Tackles for Loss Game-by-Game:

vs Miami (O) 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Rutgers 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs IowaSt 1 sack, 2 TFL
vs Mid Tenn 2 sacks, 5 TFL
vs UMich 2 sacks, 5 TFL


They are about the most "non-explosive" defense one could find - wrt wrecking plays in the backfield (which is a key component of stopping decent-good offenses)


By comparison, to provide some perspective.... PSU defense Game-by-Game:

vs Idaho 7 sack, 11 TFL
vs Buffalo 1 sack, 10 TFL
vs Pitt 3 sack, 10 TFL
vs UMd 4 sacks, 8 TFL
vs Purdue 10 sacks, 13 TFL


Hard to imagine Iowa can be successful on Saturday unless they can even that performance out.
At some point - against a solid offense (is PSU a solid offense?) - you have to make some plays to put them into bad situations.

Love the data, thanks for the above. I thought there’d be more there there (on Iowa’s D capability)

 

[ChiTownLion]

FWIW: Personally, I don’t discount that the Iowa D is solid. They are disciplined, and they (from what I’ve seen) tackle well.
But they are certainly not disruptive (not to date anyway, and I don’t see the guys out there that have that capability).
But if your offense kinda’ sucks (like UM’s did last Saturday) they won’t help ya’....... you’re gonna’ have to beat them.
Just as a for instance, PSU had a 40 yard gainer vs Purdue on a play where PSU blocked all of FOUR guys - and no one even had to break a tackle.
Purdue basically “gave” that play to PSU.

That kind of stuff won’t happen vs Iowa.
and that’s how ya’ get 10-3 games against crappy offenses..... and there is something to be said for that.

PSU has waaaaaay too many talented skill guys - IMO - for Iowa to shut them down UNLESS the PSU O and/or OC shits the bed.
But.... who knows (at least until 11pm Saturday)

Would imagine Iowa's defense ranks pretty well in preventing big plays.

 

[PSU87]

Not discounting that Iowa has a good defense, but holding Michigan to 10 doesn't necessarily demonstrate that.... Army held them to 14 in regulation.

 

[pointingdogsrule]

No problem

Numbers are, as Kristen Bell (an underrated dish, IMO) would say, “kinda’ my jam” ...... and usually anything out of whack with the figures kinda’ catches my eye.


In any event, I think this game Saturday is kind of an interesting match up..... for a lot of reasons.
I just have no real comfort level wrt what to expect when PSU has the ball (whereas I think it is very predictable what to expect when Iowa has the ball)
If I were a gambler, I think I’d default to the QB who I had more trust in wrt being able to make plays and not shit the bed too many times....... and, for me, that’s Clifford (not a big Nate Stanley Fan). I just hope Stanley didn’t get all of his “bed-shitting” out of his system in the UM game

Flag on the field. If you mention Kristen Bell post a photo.

 

[Nittany Ziggy]

Flag on the field. If you mention Kristen Bell post a photo.

Here you go...

 

[PennSt8er]

(And hopefully this doesn't serve as a "jinx")
is PSU a solid offense?)

PSU has some of the best skill players all over the offense we've seen since maybe 1994. The issue is execution and sometimes playcalling. if those are "on" for any game, this team is very hard to beat.

 

[Ian]

Pretty simple formula. Win the turnover battle, field position, and the defense has got to get off the field. For some reason those three areas are always difficult at Kinnick. Should be fun.

 

[Agoodnap]

@Grant Green
I checked some of your numbers and there are a few issues. Here are the recalculated numbers according to your formula.
______Off Plays Int Thrown Fumbles Lost TFL Allowed Off Havoc %
Iowa____368_________3__________2___________28___________9%
PSU____346_________2__________4___________31___________10.7%

I can reconcile some of your numbers, but not all of them. For example, Iowa Opponents ran 265 offensive plays, but PSU's opponents ran 334 plays; PSU has thrown 2 int's, while collecting 4 int's. There are other discrepancies as well.

One last question, are you using fumbles lost or total fumbles? If total fumbles, than PSU had 10, as opposed to 4 lost shown above, so the havoc % would be 12.4%, while Iowa's number would not change since they had 2 total fumbles and lost both.

 

[SR108]

It's all about matchups. There is little doubt PSU is more explosive and more talented than Iowa and MSU. But those teams want to play a ball control, grind it out low scoring game. If they succeed it's going to be tough, just as it was at Iowa two years ago and vs. MSU each of the past two years. On the other hand, last year we scored 31 on IA and but for a horrific first quarter would have blown them out, and in 2016 we blew out MSU.

The difference this year should be our defense. I don’t see anyone grinding it out on a consistent basis.