Testing the Recruiting Rankings vs. 2016 NCAA Scoring

[Sportfan2017]

Using the rubric for the recruits of the top 5 teams at the 2016 NCAA Championships:

1. PENN STATE:..Recruiting Score= 1014 pts....NCAA Score= 123 pts.
3.Nico, 109.Conaway, 3.Guilibon, 3.Zain, 4.Nolf, U.Morelli, 7.Nickal, 32.Cutch, 1. McCintosh, 5.Nevills

2. OKL. STATE:....Recruiting Score= 703 pts.....NCAA Score= 97.5 pts.
34.Klimara, 46.Harding, 13.Heil, 21.Collica, 16.J. Smith, 15.Dieringer, 13.C.Rogers, U.Boyd, 109.Weigel, 25. Marsden

3. OHIO STATE:...Recruiting Score= 920 pts.......NCAA Score= 86 pts.
10.Tomasello, 27.Dijulius, 6.M.Jordan, U.Burcher, U.Ryan, 1. B.Jordan, 4.Martin, 12.Courts, 29. Mark Martin, 1.Snyder

4. VA. TECH:.…….Recruiting Score= 585 pts...….NCAA Score= 82 pts.
6.Dance, 46.Gustafson, 10.Chisko, U. Mastriani, 41. Brascetta, 17.McFadden, 29. Epperly, 28.Zavatsky, 93.Haught, 111.Waltz

5. IOWA:...….…...Recruiting Score= 524pts...…...NCAA Score= 81pts.
16.Gilman, 23.Clark. 108.Grothus, 27.Sorenson, U.Cooper Jr., U. Rhoads, 41. A. Meyer, 20.Brooks, U. Burak, 14.Stoll

NOTES: I included any wrestler that entered their Conference tournament...even if they didn't earn their way to NCAA's
Any wrestler ranked over 100 or Unr. counted as 5 pts.

Thoughts: * By the recruiting rubric.....tOSU underperformed in 2016....To be fair.....so did PSU......mainly because Nevills was not back to 100% when he wrestled in Big 10 and failed to qualify for NCAAs
* By the recruiting rubric......Iowa finished 5th where they were projected to but based on pre-tournament rankings.....not so much. Gilman, Clark and Sorenson careers outperformed their recruiting ranking. Cue the "Lighweight Room" banter . In this case....hard to argue.
* Didn't realize that Haught and Waltz were so low coming out of HS
* Overall.....a pretty good indicator of relative success.....at least in 2016
I'll get to 2017 tomorrow....I hope ZZZzzz

 

[Ian]

Outstanding. Bucks really underperformed, again! Great job by Va Tech. Keep it coming Sportfan. I love your wrestling analytics.

 

[hbluejr]

To be indicative of over/under-performance, wouldn’t you want to account for different athletes’ years as they should be expected to score more points later in their careers? For instance, all 5 of OhSt’s top 10 recruits on the 2016 team were fresh or soph while their juniors and seniors then weren’t nearly as heralded as a group on the whole. It might be more telling to total each recruit’s points over their career (and perhaps account for redshirts, etc. as well) to get a sense of who is truly over vs under performing.

 

[Sportfan2017]

To be indicative of over/under-performance, wouldn’t you want to account for different athletes’ years as they should be expected to score more points later in their careers? For instance, all 5 of OhSt’s top 10 recruits on the 2016 team were fresh or soph while their juniors and seniors then weren’t nearly as heralded as a group on the whole. It might be more telling to total each recruit’s points over their career (and perhaps account for redshirts, etc. as well) to get a sense of who is truly over vs under performing.

No mathematical system can be perfect. While your premise seems logical....Logan Massa, Nick Reenen, Joe Smith, Chad Red, T.Wilson, Mark Hall, Cenzo, Dean Heil, Tsirtsis, Sorenson, Stoll, Gulibon, Collica, Moisy, C. Rogers, K. Hayes.. even Myles Martin just off the top of my head don't fit that idea. Weight changes, Lineup makeup (some studs sit behind other studs losing a year or 2 of contribution), injuries and other factors affect outcome as well as redshirting. Feel free to try to account for all those variables mathematically. Remember...."underperforming" based on High School Ranking is far different than underperforming based on end-of-year NCAA ranking and seeding. Keep in mind this is supposed to be a predictive tool...….not an explanation of what occurred. Comparing the rubric's prediction with known results is a way of finding out what adjustments need to be made. When you are done collecting data on the effect of grade on performance and factoring in the effect of redshirting, 5th and 6th year waivers etc.......please post it and I will be happy to try to incorporate it. Thanks!

 

[jammenz]

Sportsfan, are you implying that Cael's success has been due to recruiting?

 

[Sportfan2017]

Sportsfan, are you implying that Cael's success has been due to recruiting?

Are you Ignoring the fact that Anthony Cassar was Unranked coming out of High School (Zero recruiting pts.) yet earned a National Championship......while twice defeating the consensus #1 Recruit in the country?
Recruiting success certainly relates to performance success......but past performance success often directly relates to future recruiting success. They are intertwined as you should expect.

 

[Dogwelder]

Are you Ignoring the fact that Anthony Cassar was Unranked coming out of High School (Zero recruiting pts.) yet earned a National Championship......while twice defeating the consensus #1 Recruit in the country?

What a recruiter Cael is! He can recruit both known AND unknown can’t-miss studs!

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Sportsfan, are you implying that Cael's success has been due to recruiting?

I think your bigger bone to pick is with Tom Ryan and crew. Fairly comparable recruiting rankings the last 5 years, but not quite the results of Caelaroni

 

[tikk10]

Anthony Cassar is the stuff of Jammenz's worst-case-scenario nightmares, not only by invalidating his 'Cael can only recruit' and 'Cael can't develop heavyweights' hobby horses, but by beating Minny's future undefeated four-timer twice on his way to a NC.

 

[Dogwelder]

... past performance success often directly relates to future recruiting success ...

The rich get richer, and Jammenz stays poor. That’s how it works.

 

[Sportfan2017]

To be indicative of over/under-performance, wouldn’t you want to account for different athletes’ years as they should be expected to score more points later in their careers? For instance, all 5 of OhSt’s top 10 recruits on the 2016 team were fresh or soph while their juniors and seniors then weren’t nearly as heralded as a group on the whole. It might be more telling to total each recruit’s points over their career (and perhaps account for redshirts, etc. as well) to get a sense of who is truly over vs under performing.

I actually thought of including a "Maturity" multiplier. As an example....Taking the wrestler's "Prediction" and multiplying it by .9 as a freshman, .95 as a Soph., 1.05 as a Jr. and 1.1 as a Senior plus another.05 if redshirted. But there were so many examples that I thought of off the top of my head that made it seem pretty unlikely to have a major effect. Plus analyzing every recruit and their redshirt status to track the point totals throughout their career seemed like such an exhaustive amount of extra work that I don't believe would alter the overall rubric....so I didn't. If you want to do the analysis and it shows any measurable difference…..I will adjust the rubric accordingly. Have at it

 

[El-Jefe]

The rich get richer, and Jammenz stays poor. That’s how it works.

Minnesota's score: