This week's CFP rankings might determine PSU's shot at NY6

[djm_psu_alum]

Yes, I know lots of football left but tomorrow's CFP rankings may determine PSU by where it is slotted related to a few teams. I wrote last week about how simply assuming if PSU wins out, they will get a top 10 ranking and a NY6 slot. Unfortunately, the ranking is dependent on where we are to begin with and obviously more to do with other teams' results--something totally out of our control. With the bowl slot, it's just not the way it was in years/decades past. CFP rankings really do control who gets into the NY6 bowls. Yes, PSU brings fans, $, and tv ratings but I'm sure other teams on the cusp are saying the same thing about themselves.

As I posted last week, of the 3 years of CFP, all teams ranked #1-9 made the NY6--not the top 12 as some seem to think. For instance, the 10th ranked team only made it 1 out of 3 years. This is because there are predetermine if certain conditions are met though one slot always goes to the highest ranked non-Big 5 conference champ. Each year (and this would be no surprise) has had this team ranked outside of the top 12.

2014 was the closest to getting #1-12 into the NY6 when they had #1-10, #12, and #20 (Boise State). Why #12 over #11? Because Florida State was chosen for the playoff and the Orange Bowl needed a replacement team (#12 GaTech). This meant that Kansas State was left out.

2015 had #1-9, #12, #16, and #18 (Houston) in the NY6. Why #12 and #16 over #10 and #11? Alabama was in the playoff so SEC needed a replacement team in the Sugar Bowl so they got #12 Ole Miss included and same story with #16 Oklahoma State getting in with Oklahoma in the playoff.

2016 had #1-9, #11, #14, and #15 (Western Michigan) in the NY6. Why #11 over #10? And why #14 over #10 or #12? Well, yet again, Clemson was in the playoff so they needed a replacement in the Orange Bowl (#11 FSU) and SEC had Alabama in the playoff so the Sugar Bowl needed another SEC team (#14 Auburn). This meant that #10 (Colorado) was left out.

As you can see, the only true guarantee is to be in the top 9. I was worried last week that if PSU was ranked too low in the CFP, they might have too many teams to jump. At #14, I thought it was definitely doable because of the games yet to be played. I didn't count on Washington losing though that was good or Auburn winning which I believe is potentially bad for PSU.

PSU was at #14 last week. We know that #1, #3, #6, #9, and #12 lost. I think it is very safe to assume #9 (UWash) and #12 (MSU) will fall below PSU. I think there are 5 big threats to PSU for a NY6 spot; two from Big12, two from SEC, and an Irish one.

1. The AP/Coaches polls dropped TCU after their loss from #8 to #11 (AP) and #9 to #14. So they are 2 spots ahead of PSU in AP and 3 spots behind PSU in Coaches.
   
2. Oklahoma State was ranked in the CFP at #15, just behind PSU. They beat then-#21 Iowa State in a close one. Could the CFP committee weigh that win heavily and have them jump PSU? In the AP/Coaches polls, OkSt went moved up two spots to #12 (AP) and #13 (Coaches). PSU gained a a little in the AP and stayed ahead in the Coaches.
   
3. Georgia was #1 and now is #7 in both polls. How far they fall will indicate how much the committee weighs the SEC as the top conference. Will they stay above Wisconsin or Oklahoma? They still have to play GaTech--no easy rivalry game and Alabama in the SEC champ game. If they lose big in the SEC champ game (assuming the beat GaTech), will that drop them below PSU?
4. Auburn had the biggest impact for PSU and probably the whole CFP picture. They went up 4 spots to #6 in both polls. They were #10 in the CFP and a similar 4 spot jump could happen there as well. If they had lost to Georgia, they would have dropped below PSU which would have been helpful. Now of course, they do have to play Alabama but let's say they are at #6 in the CFP, do they drop below PSU with a loss to Bama? What if it is a close loss?
5. Notre Dame getting killed by Miami had a 6 spot (AP) AND 4 spot (Coaches) in the polls with both leaving them at #9. They will likely stay ahead of PSU in this week's CFP but if they are only a few spots ahead, a loss at Stanford will drop them and that is probably PSU's only hope to jump them.

If PSU stays ahead of Oklahoma State in the CFP, it would be safe to assume OkSt doesn't have any games left that would leave them to jump PSU so PSU should be safe there. If PSU is above TCU, that would be even better though it would still require them to lose to Oklahoma again. Also, it would be very helpful if Penn State stays right behind Ohio State. If OSU loses to UMich, they fall below PSU but would still have the Big10 champ game to make a jump. If they beat UMich but lose to Wisconsin, they would have to fall below PSU.

To put all this into effect, lets assume:

• Alabama wins the SEC and claims #1 seed in playoffs
  
• Oklahoma wins Big12 champ and claims #3 or 4 seed in playoffs
• Clemson/Miami winner in ACC champ claims #2 seed in playoffs AND the loser gets the Orange bowl bid as they are unlikley to fall out of top 10 with a loss
• The Pac12 champ (USC, Stanford, or WSU) is in the NY6 and let's assume the Fiesta to keep them on the west coast
• UCF is the non-Big 5 conf champ.

That leaves 6 spots in the NYD (1 spot in the playoffs and 5 in the remaining NY6). I think even if Stanford or WSU wins the Pac12 vs USC, by virtue of USC only being a few spots above PSU that if they lose, they will drop below them and therefore not be a NY6 option. Last week, I was worried about them as an at-large option but not anymore. I think Wisconsin is probably guaranteed a spot in the NY6 regardless. If they win the Big10 at 13-0, they may be in the playoff. If they lose the champ game, they are still 12-1 and won't drop below PSU (sorry--just dont see it).

Continuing the assumptions:

• Wisconsin wins Big 10 champ over OSU and gets into the playoff
• Loss in SEC champ game still keeps Georgia above 3-loss Auburn and they are the SEC replacement team and go to Orange vs Clemson

So now that leaves 4 spots but who is left as options:

• 2 loss Notre Dame (assuming the beat Stanford)
• 2 loss Penn State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss OSU (assuming a loss in Big 10 champ game)
• 2 loss Ok State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss TCU (assuming a loss in Big 12 champ game)
• 3 loss Auburn (assuming a loss vs Alabama)

From purely a # of losses perspective, PSU should be in the NY6. However, it gets back to the rankings again.

1. Notre Dame beats Stanford, they stay above PSU (that's 1 spot, 3 left).
   
2. Does Ok State jump PSU in this week's rankings? If so, they will stay ahead of PSU if both win out (that's another spot, 2 left).
   
3. If Auburn is 5-6 spots ahead of PSU can they drop 6-7 after a loss to Alabama? Unless it is a blowout, I think the committee will bow down to SEC and keep them in top 10 (thats another spot, 1 left).
4. Now this one is easy, if OSU is ranked right above PSU in this week's CFP and they lose, then PSU gets above them.
5. Does TCU stay above PSU in this week's CFP? If so, how far ahead? If it is more than 2 spots, would they drop TCU below PSU if they lose in a close game vs Oklahoma? Something to consider: last year, Wisconsin was #6 in CFP before Big10 champ game, and only dropped to #8.

This is why I think it will come down to how this week's rankings are laid out. If PSU is above OkSt, close or above TCU, and stays right behind tOSU, they should be okay. If any or all 3 happen, PSU has a strong chance of being on the outside looking in.

This would be my list to root for in the coming weeks. Not all have to happen but more than a few would help:

• Notre Dame loses to Stanford
• USC loses to Stanford or WSU in Pac 12 champ game (would mean an extra spot for PSU to jump and could put the Fiesta in play since if PSU were to get in and USC was in the Fiesta, they likely would not want a replay)
• TCU loses to Texas Tech (would be nice) and loses to Oklahoma (must happen)
• Ohio State loses to UMich (would be nice) and loses to Wisconsin (must happen)
• Alabama blows out Georgia
• Alabama blows out Auburn (would be nice) but beating Auburn must happen

 

[gogolion]

WAG, but you don't have a job, do you?

 

[djm_psu_alum]

WAG, but you don't have a job, do you?

Haha...I do; a good one too. I type fast and get bored at lunch time.

 

[JosephNit]

Yes, I know lots of football left but tomorrow's CFP rankings may determine PSU by where it is slotted related to a few teams. I wrote last week about how simply assuming if PSU wins out, they will get a top 10 ranking and a NY6 slot. Unfortunately, the ranking is dependent on where we are to begin with and obviously more to do with other teams' results--something totally out of our control. With the bowl slot, it's just not the way it was in years/decades past. CFP rankings really do control who gets into the NY6 bowls. Yes, PSU brings fans, $, and tv ratings but I'm sure other teams on the cusp are saying the same thing about themselves.

As I posted last week, of the 3 years of CFP, all teams ranked #1-9 made the NY6--not the top 12 as some seem to think. For instance, the 10th ranked team only made it 1 out of 3 years. This is because there are predetermine if certain conditions are met though one slot always goes to the highest ranked non-Big 5 conference champ. Each year (and this would be no surprise) has had this team ranked outside of the top 12.

2014 was the closest to getting #1-12 into the NY6 when they had #1-10, #12, and #20 (Boise State). Why #12 over #11? Because Florida State was chosen for the playoff and the Orange Bowl needed a replacement team (#12 GaTech). This meant that Kansas State was left out.

2015 had #1-9, #12, #16, and #18 (Houston) in the NY6. Why #12 and #16 over #10 and #11? Alabama was in the playoff so SEC needed a replacement team in the Sugar Bowl so they got #12 Ole Miss included and same story with #16 Oklahoma State getting in with Oklahoma in the playoff.

2016 had #1-9, #11, #14, and #15 (Western Michigan) in the NY6. Why #11 over #10? And why #14 over #10 or #12? Well, yet again, Clemson was in the playoff so they needed a replacement in the Orange Bowl (#11 FSU) and SEC had Alabama in the playoff so the Sugar Bowl needed another SEC team (#14 Auburn). This meant that #10 (Colorado) was left out.

As you can see, the only true guarantee is to be in the top 9. I was worried last week that if PSU was ranked too low in the CFP, they might have too many teams to jump. At #14, I thought it was definitely doable because of the games yet to be played. I didn't count on Washington losing though that was good or Auburn winning which I believe is potentially bad for PSU.

PSU was at #14 last week. We know that #1, #3, #6, #9, and #12 lost. I think it is very safe to assume #9 (UWash) and #12 (MSU) will fall below PSU. I think there are 5 big threats to PSU for a NY6 spot; two from Big12, two from SEC, and an Irish one.

1. The AP/Coaches polls dropped TCU after their loss from #8 to #11 (AP) and #9 to #14. So they are 2 spots ahead of PSU in AP and 3 spots behind PSU in Coaches.
   
2. Oklahoma State was ranked in the CFP at #15, just behind PSU. They beat then-#21 Iowa State in a close one. Could the CFP committee weigh that win heavily and have them jump PSU? In the AP/Coaches polls, OkSt went moved up two spots to #12 (AP) and #13 (Coaches). PSU gained a a little in the AP and stayed ahead in the Coaches.
   
3. Georgia was #1 and now is #7 in both polls. How far they fall will indicate how much the committee weighs the SEC as the top conference. Will they stay above Wisconsin or Oklahoma? They still have to play GaTech--no easy rivalry game and Alabama in the SEC champ game. If they lose big in the SEC champ game (assuming the beat GaTech), will that drop them below PSU?
4. Auburn had the biggest impact for PSU and probably the whole CFP picture. They went up 4 spots to #6 in both polls. They were #10 in the CFP and a similar 4 spot jump could happen there as well. If they had lost to Georgia, they would have dropped below PSU which would have been helpful. Now of course, they do have to play Alabama but let's say they are at #6 in the CFP, do they drop below PSU with a loss to Bama? What if it is a close loss?
5. Notre Dame getting killed by Miami had a 6 spot (AP) AND 4 spot (Coaches) in the polls with both leaving them at #9. They will likely stay ahead of PSU in this week's CFP but if they are only a few spots ahead, a loss at Stanford will drop them and that is probably PSU's only hope to jump them.

If PSU stays ahead of Oklahoma State in the CFP, it would be safe to assume OkSt doesn't have any games left that would leave them to jump PSU so PSU should be safe there. If PSU is above TCU, that would be even better though it would still require them to lose to Oklahoma again. Also, it would be very helpful if Penn State stays right behind Ohio State. If OSU loses to UMich, they fall below PSU but would still have the Big10 champ game to make a jump. If they beat UMich but lose to Wisconsin, they would have to fall below PSU.

To put all this into effect, lets assume:

• Alabama wins the SEC and claims #1 seed in playoffs
  
• Oklahoma wins Big12 champ and claims #3 or 4 seed in playoffs
• Clemson/Miami winner in ACC champ claims #2 seed in playoffs AND the loser gets the Orange bowl bid as they are unlikley to fall out of top 10 with a loss
• The Pac12 champ (USC, Stanford, or WSU) is in the NY6 and let's assume the Fiesta to keep them on the west coast
• UCF is the non-Big 5 conf champ.

That leaves 6 spots in the NYD (1 spot in the playoffs and 5 in the remaining NY6). I think even if Stanford or WSU wins the Pac12 vs USC, by virtue of USC only being a few spots above PSU that if they lose, they will drop below them and therefore not be a NY6 option. Last week, I was worried about them as an at-large option but not anymore. I think Wisconsin is probably guaranteed a spot in the NY6 regardless. If they win the Big10 at 13-0, they may be in the playoff. If they lose the champ game, they are still 12-1 and won't drop below PSU (sorry--just dont see it).

Continuing the assumptions:

• Wisconsin wins Big 10 champ over OSU and gets into the playoff
• Loss in SEC champ game still keeps Georgia above 3-loss Auburn and they are the SEC replacement team and go to Orange vs Clemson

So now that leaves 4 spots but who is left as options:

• 2 loss Notre Dame (assuming the beat Stanford)
• 2 loss Penn State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss OSU (assuming a loss in Big 10 champ game)
• 2 loss Ok State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss TCU (assuming a loss in Big 12 champ game)
• 3 loss Auburn (assuming a loss vs Alabama)

From purely a # of losses perspective, PSU should be in the NY6. However, it gets back to the rankings again.

1. Notre Dame beats Stanford, they stay above PSU (that's 1 spot, 3 left).
   
2. Does Ok State jump PSU in this week's rankings? If so, they will stay ahead of PSU if both win out (that's another spot, 2 left).
   
3. If Auburn is 5-6 spots ahead of PSU can they drop 6-7 after a loss to Alabama? Unless it is a blowout, I think the committee will bow down to SEC and keep them in top 10 (thats another spot, 1 left).
4. Now this one is easy, if OSU is ranked right above PSU in this week's CFP and they lose, then PSU gets above them.
5. Does TCU stay above PSU in this week's CFP? If so, how far ahead? If it is more than 2 spots, would they drop TCU below PSU if they lose in a close game vs Oklahoma? Something to consider: last year, Wisconsin was #6 in CFP before Big10 champ game, and only dropped to #8.

This is why I think it will come down to how this week's rankings are laid out. If PSU is above OkSt, close or above TCU, and stays right behind tOSU, they should be okay. If any or all 3 happen, PSU has a strong chance of being on the outside looking in.

This would be my list to root for in the coming weeks. Not all have to happen but more than a few would help:

• Notre Dame loses to Stanford
• USC loses to Stanford or WSU in Pac 12 champ game (would mean an extra spot for PSU to jump and could put the Fiesta in play since if PSU were to get in and USC was in the Fiesta, they likely would not want a replay)
• TCU loses to Texas Tech (would be nice) and loses to Oklahoma (must happen)
• Ohio State loses to UMich (would be nice) and loses to Wisconsin (must happen)
• Alabama blows out Georgia
• Alabama blows out Auburn (would be nice) but beating Auburn must happen

Excellent analysis, but I think it boils down to one thing: Wisconsin. If Wisconsin wins out, to include the conference championship against Ohio St, then we get an NY6 bid.

If Ohio St wins out, to include the conference championship against Wisconsin, then we do NOT get an NY6 bid.

If Wisconsin loses to Michigan but beats Ohio St in the conference championship, then Wisconsin may or may not make the CFP but will get an NY6 bid -- along with Penn State.

Of course, all this assumes Penn State, as a heavy favorite, wins the next two weeks against Nebraska and Maryland.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

If Penn State wins out, the chances that they are in the "NY6" are about 99.6%

I guess you skipped the 2nd and 3rd sentences of my post. I know there were a lot of words and sentences. It is just not that simple. PSU doesn't get in the top 9 (to be assured) then it is certainly a lot less than 99.6%.

• You realize that if Alabama loses vs Auburn, they get in NY6, along with 2 other SEC teams? The SEC may already get teams into the NY6.
  
• You also realize that Big12 could get 3 teams in as well?
  
• You realize ND has a strong chance to win (beat Stanford and Navy--they'll be favorites in both)?
  
• You realize ACC will get 2 teams in?
  
• You realize UCF or some other non-Big conference team will be in?
• You realize a Pac12 champ will be in they NY6?
  
• You realize that if OSU wins Big10 champ, they are in and likely is Wiscy as a 1-loss team?

All of that could happen and PSU could still win out. All of that has a stronger probably of happening than 0.4%.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Excellent analysis, but I think it boils down to one thing: Wisconsin. If Wisconsin wins out, to include the conference championship against Ohio St, then we get an NY6 bid.

If Ohio St wins out, to include the conference championship against Wisconsin, then we do NOT get an NY6 bid.

If Wisconsin loses to Michigan but beats Ohio St in the conference championship, then Wisconsin may or may not make the CFP but will get an NY6 bid -- along with Penn State.

Of course, all this assumes Penn State, as a heavy favorite, wins the next two weeks against Nebraska and Maryland.

I don't entirely entirely disagree with you but I do think there is a reasonable chance that Big12 gets 3 teams and SEC gets 3 teams. Add in 2 from ACC, ND, UCF, Big10 champ, and a Pac 12 champ and there is no 2nd Big 10 team to include.

Remember the Big10 got 4 teams last year. Maybe they go the other way this year. I think if PSU is ahead of TCU and OkSt, it is a better than 50% chance (also assuming TCU loses again to Oklahoma). If PSU is behind those two, even if TCU loses in Big 12 champ game, I cant see PSU getting high enough to get selected.

 

[john4psu]

WAG, but you don't have a job, do you?

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[fairgambit]

Yes, I know lots of football left but tomorrow's CFP rankings may determine PSU by where it is slotted related to a few teams. I wrote last week about how simply assuming if PSU wins out, they will get a top 10 ranking and a NY6 slot. Unfortunately, the ranking is dependent on where we are to begin with and obviously more to do with other teams' results--something totally out of our control. With the bowl slot, it's just not the way it was in years/decades past. CFP rankings really do control who gets into the NY6 bowls. Yes, PSU brings fans, $, and tv ratings but I'm sure other teams on the cusp are saying the same thing about themselves.

As I posted last week, of the 3 years of CFP, all teams ranked #1-9 made the NY6--not the top 12 as some seem to think. For instance, the 10th ranked team only made it 1 out of 3 years. This is because there are predetermine if certain conditions are met though one slot always goes to the highest ranked non-Big 5 conference champ. Each year (and this would be no surprise) has had this team ranked outside of the top 12.

2014 was the closest to getting #1-12 into the NY6 when they had #1-10, #12, and #20 (Boise State). Why #12 over #11? Because Florida State was chosen for the playoff and the Orange Bowl needed a replacement team (#12 GaTech). This meant that Kansas State was left out.

2015 had #1-9, #12, #16, and #18 (Houston) in the NY6. Why #12 and #16 over #10 and #11? Alabama was in the playoff so SEC needed a replacement team in the Sugar Bowl so they got #12 Ole Miss included and same story with #16 Oklahoma State getting in with Oklahoma in the playoff.

2016 had #1-9, #11, #14, and #15 (Western Michigan) in the NY6. Why #11 over #10? And why #14 over #10 or #12? Well, yet again, Clemson was in the playoff so they needed a replacement in the Orange Bowl (#11 FSU) and SEC had Alabama in the playoff so the Sugar Bowl needed another SEC team (#14 Auburn). This meant that #10 (Colorado) was left out.

As you can see, the only true guarantee is to be in the top 9. I was worried last week that if PSU was ranked too low in the CFP, they might have too many teams to jump. At #14, I thought it was definitely doable because of the games yet to be played. I didn't count on Washington losing though that was good or Auburn winning which I believe is potentially bad for PSU.

PSU was at #14 last week. We know that #1, #3, #6, #9, and #12 lost. I think it is very safe to assume #9 (UWash) and #12 (MSU) will fall below PSU. I think there are 5 big threats to PSU for a NY6 spot; two from Big12, two from SEC, and an Irish one.

1. The AP/Coaches polls dropped TCU after their loss from #8 to #11 (AP) and #9 to #14. So they are 2 spots ahead of PSU in AP and 3 spots behind PSU in Coaches.
   
2. Oklahoma State was ranked in the CFP at #15, just behind PSU. They beat then-#21 Iowa State in a close one. Could the CFP committee weigh that win heavily and have them jump PSU? In the AP/Coaches polls, OkSt went moved up two spots to #12 (AP) and #13 (Coaches). PSU gained a a little in the AP and stayed ahead in the Coaches.
   
3. Georgia was #1 and now is #7 in both polls. How far they fall will indicate how much the committee weighs the SEC as the top conference. Will they stay above Wisconsin or Oklahoma? They still have to play GaTech--no easy rivalry game and Alabama in the SEC champ game. If they lose big in the SEC champ game (assuming the beat GaTech), will that drop them below PSU?
4. Auburn had the biggest impact for PSU and probably the whole CFP picture. They went up 4 spots to #6 in both polls. They were #10 in the CFP and a similar 4 spot jump could happen there as well. If they had lost to Georgia, they would have dropped below PSU which would have been helpful. Now of course, they do have to play Alabama but let's say they are at #6 in the CFP, do they drop below PSU with a loss to Bama? What if it is a close loss?
5. Notre Dame getting killed by Miami had a 6 spot (AP) AND 4 spot (Coaches) in the polls with both leaving them at #9. They will likely stay ahead of PSU in this week's CFP but if they are only a few spots ahead, a loss at Stanford will drop them and that is probably PSU's only hope to jump them.

If PSU stays ahead of Oklahoma State in the CFP, it would be safe to assume OkSt doesn't have any games left that would leave them to jump PSU so PSU should be safe there. If PSU is above TCU, that would be even better though it would still require them to lose to Oklahoma again. Also, it would be very helpful if Penn State stays right behind Ohio State. If OSU loses to UMich, they fall below PSU but would still have the Big10 champ game to make a jump. If they beat UMich but lose to Wisconsin, they would have to fall below PSU.

To put all this into effect, lets assume:

• Alabama wins the SEC and claims #1 seed in playoffs
  
• Oklahoma wins Big12 champ and claims #3 or 4 seed in playoffs
• Clemson/Miami winner in ACC champ claims #2 seed in playoffs AND the loser gets the Orange bowl bid as they are unlikley to fall out of top 10 with a loss
• The Pac12 champ (USC, Stanford, or WSU) is in the NY6 and let's assume the Fiesta to keep them on the west coast
• UCF is the non-Big 5 conf champ.

That leaves 6 spots in the NYD (1 spot in the playoffs and 5 in the remaining NY6). I think even if Stanford or WSU wins the Pac12 vs USC, by virtue of USC only being a few spots above PSU that if they lose, they will drop below them and therefore not be a NY6 option. Last week, I was worried about them as an at-large option but not anymore. I think Wisconsin is probably guaranteed a spot in the NY6 regardless. If they win the Big10 at 13-0, they may be in the playoff. If they lose the champ game, they are still 12-1 and won't drop below PSU (sorry--just dont see it).

Continuing the assumptions:

• Wisconsin wins Big 10 champ over OSU and gets into the playoff
• Loss in SEC champ game still keeps Georgia above 3-loss Auburn and they are the SEC replacement team and go to Orange vs Clemson

So now that leaves 4 spots but who is left as options:

• 2 loss Notre Dame (assuming the beat Stanford)
• 2 loss Penn State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss OSU (assuming a loss in Big 10 champ game)
• 2 loss Ok State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss TCU (assuming a loss in Big 12 champ game)
• 3 loss Auburn (assuming a loss vs Alabama)

From purely a # of losses perspective, PSU should be in the NY6. However, it gets back to the rankings again.

1. Notre Dame beats Stanford, they stay above PSU (that's 1 spot, 3 left).
   
2. Does Ok State jump PSU in this week's rankings? If so, they will stay ahead of PSU if both win out (that's another spot, 2 left).
   
3. If Auburn is 5-6 spots ahead of PSU can they drop 6-7 after a loss to Alabama? Unless it is a blowout, I think the committee will bow down to SEC and keep them in top 10 (thats another spot, 1 left).
4. Now this one is easy, if OSU is ranked right above PSU in this week's CFP and they lose, then PSU gets above them.
5. Does TCU stay above PSU in this week's CFP? If so, how far ahead? If it is more than 2 spots, would they drop TCU below PSU if they lose in a close game vs Oklahoma? Something to consider: last year, Wisconsin was #6 in CFP before Big10 champ game, and only dropped to #8.

This is why I think it will come down to how this week's rankings are laid out. If PSU is above OkSt, close or above TCU, and stays right behind tOSU, they should be okay. If any or all 3 happen, PSU has a strong chance of being on the outside looking in.

This would be my list to root for in the coming weeks. Not all have to happen but more than a few would help:

• Notre Dame loses to Stanford
• USC loses to Stanford or WSU in Pac 12 champ game (would mean an extra spot for PSU to jump and could put the Fiesta in play since if PSU were to get in and USC was in the Fiesta, they likely would not want a replay)
• TCU loses to Texas Tech (would be nice) and loses to Oklahoma (must happen)
• Ohio State loses to UMich (would be nice) and loses to Wisconsin (must happen)
• Alabama blows out Georgia
• Alabama blows out Auburn (would be nice) but beating Auburn must happen

 

[Cosmos]

Yes, I know lots of football left but tomorrow's CFP rankings may determine PSU by where it is slotted related to a few teams. I wrote last week about how simply assuming if PSU wins out, they will get a top 10 ranking and a NY6 slot. Unfortunately, the ranking is dependent on where we are to begin with and obviously more to do with other teams' results--something totally out of our control. With the bowl slot, it's just not the way it was in years/decades past. CFP rankings really do control who gets into the NY6 bowls. Yes, PSU brings fans, $, and tv ratings but I'm sure other teams on the cusp are saying the same thing about themselves.

As I posted last week, of the 3 years of CFP, all teams ranked #1-9 made the NY6--not the top 12 as some seem to think. For instance, the 10th ranked team only made it 1 out of 3 years. This is because there are predetermine if certain conditions are met though one slot always goes to the highest ranked non-Big 5 conference champ. Each year (and this would be no surprise) has had this team ranked outside of the top 12.

2014 was the closest to getting #1-12 into the NY6 when they had #1-10, #12, and #20 (Boise State). Why #12 over #11? Because Florida State was chosen for the playoff and the Orange Bowl needed a replacement team (#12 GaTech). This meant that Kansas State was left out.

2015 had #1-9, #12, #16, and #18 (Houston) in the NY6. Why #12 and #16 over #10 and #11? Alabama was in the playoff so SEC needed a replacement team in the Sugar Bowl so they got #12 Ole Miss included and same story with #16 Oklahoma State getting in with Oklahoma in the playoff.

2016 had #1-9, #11, #14, and #15 (Western Michigan) in the NY6. Why #11 over #10? And why #14 over #10 or #12? Well, yet again, Clemson was in the playoff so they needed a replacement in the Orange Bowl (#11 FSU) and SEC had Alabama in the playoff so the Sugar Bowl needed another SEC team (#14 Auburn). This meant that #10 (Colorado) was left out.

As you can see, the only true guarantee is to be in the top 9. I was worried last week that if PSU was ranked too low in the CFP, they might have too many teams to jump. At #14, I thought it was definitely doable because of the games yet to be played. I didn't count on Washington losing though that was good or Auburn winning which I believe is potentially bad for PSU.

PSU was at #14 last week. We know that #1, #3, #6, #9, and #12 lost. I think it is very safe to assume #9 (UWash) and #12 (MSU) will fall below PSU. I think there are 5 big threats to PSU for a NY6 spot; two from Big12, two from SEC, and an Irish one.

1. The AP/Coaches polls dropped TCU after their loss from #8 to #11 (AP) and #9 to #14. So they are 2 spots ahead of PSU in AP and 3 spots behind PSU in Coaches.
   
2. Oklahoma State was ranked in the CFP at #15, just behind PSU. They beat then-#21 Iowa State in a close one. Could the CFP committee weigh that win heavily and have them jump PSU? In the AP/Coaches polls, OkSt went moved up two spots to #12 (AP) and #13 (Coaches). PSU gained a a little in the AP and stayed ahead in the Coaches.
   
3. Georgia was #1 and now is #7 in both polls. How far they fall will indicate how much the committee weighs the SEC as the top conference. Will they stay above Wisconsin or Oklahoma? They still have to play GaTech--no easy rivalry game and Alabama in the SEC champ game. If they lose big in the SEC champ game (assuming the beat GaTech), will that drop them below PSU?
4. Auburn had the biggest impact for PSU and probably the whole CFP picture. They went up 4 spots to #6 in both polls. They were #10 in the CFP and a similar 4 spot jump could happen there as well. If they had lost to Georgia, they would have dropped below PSU which would have been helpful. Now of course, they do have to play Alabama but let's say they are at #6 in the CFP, do they drop below PSU with a loss to Bama? What if it is a close loss?
5. Notre Dame getting killed by Miami had a 6 spot (AP) AND 4 spot (Coaches) in the polls with both leaving them at #9. They will likely stay ahead of PSU in this week's CFP but if they are only a few spots ahead, a loss at Stanford will drop them and that is probably PSU's only hope to jump them.

If PSU stays ahead of Oklahoma State in the CFP, it would be safe to assume OkSt doesn't have any games left that would leave them to jump PSU so PSU should be safe there. If PSU is above TCU, that would be even better though it would still require them to lose to Oklahoma again. Also, it would be very helpful if Penn State stays right behind Ohio State. If OSU loses to UMich, they fall below PSU but would still have the Big10 champ game to make a jump. If they beat UMich but lose to Wisconsin, they would have to fall below PSU.

To put all this into effect, lets assume:

• Alabama wins the SEC and claims #1 seed in playoffs
  
• Oklahoma wins Big12 champ and claims #3 or 4 seed in playoffs
• Clemson/Miami winner in ACC champ claims #2 seed in playoffs AND the loser gets the Orange bowl bid as they are unlikley to fall out of top 10 with a loss
• The Pac12 champ (USC, Stanford, or WSU) is in the NY6 and let's assume the Fiesta to keep them on the west coast
• UCF is the non-Big 5 conf champ.

That leaves 6 spots in the NYD (1 spot in the playoffs and 5 in the remaining NY6). I think even if Stanford or WSU wins the Pac12 vs USC, by virtue of USC only being a few spots above PSU that if they lose, they will drop below them and therefore not be a NY6 option. Last week, I was worried about them as an at-large option but not anymore. I think Wisconsin is probably guaranteed a spot in the NY6 regardless. If they win the Big10 at 13-0, they may be in the playoff. If they lose the champ game, they are still 12-1 and won't drop below PSU (sorry--just dont see it).

Continuing the assumptions:

• Wisconsin wins Big 10 champ over OSU and gets into the playoff
• Loss in SEC champ game still keeps Georgia above 3-loss Auburn and they are the SEC replacement team and go to Orange vs Clemson

So now that leaves 4 spots but who is left as options:

• 2 loss Notre Dame (assuming the beat Stanford)
• 2 loss Penn State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss OSU (assuming a loss in Big 10 champ game)
• 2 loss Ok State (assuming they win out)
  
• 3 loss TCU (assuming a loss in Big 12 champ game)
• 3 loss Auburn (assuming a loss vs Alabama)

From purely a # of losses perspective, PSU should be in the NY6. However, it gets back to the rankings again.

1. Notre Dame beats Stanford, they stay above PSU (that's 1 spot, 3 left).
   
2. Does Ok State jump PSU in this week's rankings? If so, they will stay ahead of PSU if both win out (that's another spot, 2 left).
   
3. If Auburn is 5-6 spots ahead of PSU can they drop 6-7 after a loss to Alabama? Unless it is a blowout, I think the committee will bow down to SEC and keep them in top 10 (thats another spot, 1 left).
4. Now this one is easy, if OSU is ranked right above PSU in this week's CFP and they lose, then PSU gets above them.
5. Does TCU stay above PSU in this week's CFP? If so, how far ahead? If it is more than 2 spots, would they drop TCU below PSU if they lose in a close game vs Oklahoma? Something to consider: last year, Wisconsin was #6 in CFP before Big10 champ game, and only dropped to #8.

This is why I think it will come down to how this week's rankings are laid out. If PSU is above OkSt, close or above TCU, and stays right behind tOSU, they should be okay. If any or all 3 happen, PSU has a strong chance of being on the outside looking in.

This would be my list to root for in the coming weeks. Not all have to happen but more than a few would help:

• Notre Dame loses to Stanford
• USC loses to Stanford or WSU in Pac 12 champ game (would mean an extra spot for PSU to jump and could put the Fiesta in play since if PSU were to get in and USC was in the Fiesta, they likely would not want a replay)
• TCU loses to Texas Tech (would be nice) and loses to Oklahoma (must happen)
• Ohio State loses to UMich (would be nice) and loses to Wisconsin (must happen)
• Alabama blows out Georgia
• Alabama blows out Auburn (would be nice) but beating Auburn must happen

• Don't see ND losing to Stanford. 10-2 and ranked in top 10.
• Don't see USC losing out. 11-2 and ranked ahead of PSU.
• TCU won't lose to Texas Tech. They'll play OU in the championship game and lose. 9-3 and ranked behind PSU. So there's one slot.
• Ohio State is going to win out. 11-2 and ahead of PSU. Wisky finishes 12-1 and also ahead of PSU. There goes Penn State's NY6 bowl chances. Can you say Outback Bowl.
• Bama won't blow out GA. They've got the injury bug but should win. 13-0 and ranked #1. Georgia finishes 11-2 and ranked above PSU.
• Bama should have enough gas in the tank to beat Auburn but seeing how it's a rivalry game this one can go either way. If Bama wins then a 3-loss Auburn should fall below a 10-2 PSU. Why. Because Mississippi has 3 losses and they're ranked below PSU, so why not add another SEC team. So there's another slot (that makes two).

That's probably the worse case scenario but PSU should certainly move up at least two slots. With two Big Ten teams ranked ahead of them (and being just outside the Top 10) that projects to be the Outback Bowl.