Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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appears there will shortly be two vaccines in the USA, as the Advisory Committee has voted to recommend the Moderna vaccine. The FDA still has to approve it, but that should happen in 24 +/- hours.
This is not the full story. First Pfizer was getting early data on effectiveness so they had high confidence in the vaccine. Combine early data/high confidence with a contract for nearly $2B means that Warp Speed allowed them to take a small risk that would normally be a huge risk.
Further, during the entire process, the pharmaceutical firms doing research and head start manufacturing were sharing data with the feds. If they needed equipment, materials, reagents, or precursors the feds would help them acquire what they needed by contacting various manufacturers/suppliers. And enacting the Defense Production Act if necessary.
The feds, through OWS, also were working on the rollout of vaccinations by building supplies of needles, syringes, dry ice, specialized containers, and more. They worked with the military, shipping companies, retail pharmacies, and others to set the stage.
There have been glitches. One shipment of precursors didn’t meet standards and was discarded, slowing production. There will be more.....inevitable in such a large and novel undertaking. But the bottom line is that the vaccine development and its ongoing rollout is record setting and will be the new standard for future national medical emergencies.
Edit: add in that Pfizer very quickly received approval to proceed between Phase I, II, and III. At any given time there are several hundred drugs in various stages of development. When companies submit data for approval to proceed they usually have to wait their turn behind others previously submitted which could take months. Under OWS all Covid submissions were moved to the front of the line. This greatly accelerated the entire approval process.
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Tom posted this earlier but I am going to post it again. If this company is to be believed, this has enormous potential for multiple issues such as treating MS, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, organ transplant rejection, and immunology-based cancer treatments.
www.oncoimmune.com
Merck | Home
At Merck, we're following the science to tackle some of the world's greatest health threats. Get a glimpse of how we work to improve lives.
www.oncoimmune.com
Good read. First, says most people who test positive but are asymptomatic will develop symptoms. Goes on to say that we should test people with symptoms and not asymptomatic whole populations which wastes time and resources.
that would be pretty huge if they get FDA approval in march. having 3 vaccine makers out there going full bore means maybe availability is less of an issue. Figure with Moderna and Pfizer that in January and February should see most of the nursing home community vaccinated meaning hospitalization and fatality rate should go down by 50% or more. If J&J can get approved in March, means that maybe by Memorial day we have everybody over 65 vaccinated and anybody under 65 at high risk. If that can be done, could foresee a somewhat more back to normal summer as hospital and fatality rates should be at 10% of what they are now and widespread vaccination for the masses should be happening throughout the summer.
This was posted by @katchthis on another thread without a link:
PA update on vaccine shipments--
More than 17,000 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered to health care workers at Pennsylvania hospitals, the state health secretary said Monday, as hospitals remain stressed by coronavirus patient loads and a second vaccine from Moderna is expected to arrive this week.
Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine said 87 hospitals have thus far received doses of the first vaccine, from Pfizer, with another 30,000 doses due to arrive this week. In addition, hospitals in the state are slated to start receiving 198,000 doses of the newly approved Moderna vaccine this week, Levine said.
As part of a federal partnership, CVS and Walgreens next week will start on-site vaccination services for residents and staff of skilled nursing facilities across the state, Levine said. Those facilities will receive the Pfizer vaccine, she said.
If Pa is getting this many this week that’s 225,000 by the end of the week. That means we will make great progress faster than your projections, IMO.
Is the new coronavirus variant already in the U.S.? What experts say — The Washington Post
Mutations may have made the virus variant more transmissible, but it is still unlikely to evade vaccines.
i hope so but hospitals and nursing homes are easy. mass population is going to take a lot of time. also, PA population is nearly 13 million, so 225,000 doses (which is only 112,500 vaccinations as it takes two per person) is less than 1% of the PA population. PA needs 26,000,000 million doses to vaccinate the entire state, so look at that math when looking at the entire situation.
“Nursing homes are easy.” Getting informed consent for dementia patients is going to be a challenge.
No, that is 225,000 this week. That means 225,000 people getting it. And it seems to be 60-70% effective with a single dose. And by targeting healthcare workers and nursing homes you are hitting where it is most prevalent so that will amplify its impact. Another couple weeks and million of the highest risk will be done. That has to make difference.
That certainly adds some level of complication but almost all dementia patients have someone with power of attorney or designated to make healthcare decisions already in place. That’s required just for admission. And for ongoing care. A few have no family and are wards of the state that can take necessary decisions.
Biggest problem will be for elderly at home that have serious problems leaving the home. They will have to have visiting nurses administer the shots and getting the follow up on time will somewhat difficult.
no doubt, if they can get the nursing home community all vaccinated by mid March, the hospitalization and fatality rate should drop by 50% or more. And if they can get over 65 and under 65 with conditions that are high risk, that should be a realistic goal as that drops the hospitilzation and fatality number by probably 80-90%.
I do wonder about the legal aspect and when nursing home (or medical workers) refuse to take it, then what? do you fire the nursing home employee who refuses to get the vaccine as you know they are literally putting hundreds of people at risk of dying?
But people thinking that in a few months Covid is done just don't understand the math. Going to take all of 2021 to get the USA vaccinated and herd immunity to kick into the point where Covid is basically gone.
They will be given the first shot by mid Jan. And that will put a serious hit on the spread. Should see a significant drop by mid Feb.
And I wonder how much of the spread is by healthcare and nursing home workers bringing it home to their families....that also have jobs and spread it even further. If you stop the spread in these facilities by 70% you probably dropped the overall spread by 50%. That means it could be cut in half by mid Feb.
At least I hope.
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All of the usa won't be vaccinated. And all of the usa won't need vaccinated.
Oops, as for workers refusing: most facilities are privately owned either for profit or non profit. The employers has the right to tell workers take it or lose their jobs. Under such a pandemic emergency no court would deny the employer the right to demand compliance with such a critical health requirement.
Almost will take it unless serious complications arise.
Hopefully, infections decline by Feb. If they do, that won’t be due to the current vaccination schedule. The vast majority of the spread is in groups not on the list for vaccinations in this go round.
It may well ease strain on hospital systems and reduce the number of hospitalizations or deaths but we should be realistic. Even if 20 million people are vaccinated from the total of 40 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna that is still only 6% of the total population. That’s too small to cut the spread so dramatically.
exactly, this first round is about cutting down the hospitalization / fatality rate by getting the ultra high risk (nursing home) followed by high risk (over 70 and under 70 with co-morbidity) vaccinated as soon as possible, which as I said I think ends up being by Memorial day just due to logistics. Then this summer is about bringing the total cases per day way down due to getting closer to herd immunity with mass population combined with general summer time less spread due to being outside.
