With 17M doses out so far and probably 2.5M with double doses which are a bulk going torward nursing home and high risk older people, the hospital rates have to go down. Only question is now is how fast does it goes down. Plus is going to take a couple of weeks with the current hospitalizations to clear out. I suspect the first week of February we really start to see the hospitalizatoin rates going down in all locations.
Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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With 17M doses out so far and probably 2.5M with double doses which are a bulk going torward nursing home and high risk older people, the hospital rates have to go down. Only question is now is how fast does it goes down. Plus is going to take a couple of weeks with the current hospitalizations to clear out. I suspect the first week of February we really start to see the hospitalizatoin rates going down in all locations.
Pre-vaccine antibody screening sounds like a great idea. But we can't even get a state or municipality to figure out how to administer the vaccine to a blanket group of people. Trying to add another layer sounds near impossible
yeah, in a perfect world you would have unlimited covid testing in 15 minutes and antibody testing on demand, but as you note the reality of the world is that just doesn't really exist. Giving the vaccine to everybody is the most straight pathforward.
Per the NYT data the U.S. 7 day average hospitalization curve topped out 1/12 and has been gently working its way downward. It is crazy how smooth the 7 day average hospitalization curves are for states and nationally.
Just hope this continues despite the so - called new variants turning up in genomic sampling.
The case data between the US and the U.K. is so bizarrely similar it is hard to think almost all the same conditions aren’t in play.
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I agree... Right now as goes CA so goes the national numbers.
New variants and mutations have appeared since day 1.
There's some real cool graphs here showing how the different variants and mutations have spread throughout the world
auspice
nextstrain.org
There is a site called “Next strain “ that has been mapping them out since March.New variants and mutations have appeared since day 1.
There's some real cool graphs here showing how the different variants and mutations have spread throughout the world
auspice
The thing is, it’s hard for the nonvirologist to know the significance of these developments.
Dr Z-----60 minute videocast. First 15 minutes or so on how the vaccine is working and what life should be like after we vaccinate. Then it gets a little psycho-social for awhile on why people are thinking and feeling like they do during the pandemic. Then a really good segment for ten minutes beginning with 16 minutes left on the supporting argument to keep schools open. Last 5 minutes some political bantering. I highly recommend the first ten minutes, and the school segment.
zdoggmd.locals.com
Vax & Chill: Masks Off & Schools Open? w/Dr. Vinay Prasad
Connect with ZDoggMD and other members of ZDoggMD community
zdoggmd.locals.com
Some Saturday morning updates using Worldometer and Bloomberg sites:
19.9M doses administered so far of 39.9M doses delivered to states. California and Virginia worst two states in the country for % of supply administered both slightly below 40%. North Dakota, West Virginia, New Mexico and South Dakota are in the lead with over 70% administered. Average across all states is 50%. UK and USA by far way ahead of rest of world (which not surprising as where the vaccines are being manufactured for the most part).
Good news is that 7-day rolling average is 1 million shots per day with the last 4 days averaging 1.3M vaccinations per day. So it appears that if the supply is there, getting up to the 1.5-2.0M doses per day should not be the huge issues it appeared in early January. Looks like most states have got their act together after a rough start.
I cannot find any information charting daily doses supplied to the states strangely enough. But obviously have seen in the news that states are starting to be supplied limited in most cases. Fauci was on this week saying that the J&J vaccine should be to the FDA in a couple of weeks so I would guess approval of J&J by 3rd week of February. Astra Zenaca appears to be more early to mid March.
7-day rolling average Covid case curve from a high of 250,000 cases per day just two weeks ago to 185,000 cases yesterday. So have to believe that is starting to show the effect of the vaccine some (plus the holiday spread ending). fatality rate still not much movement downward with 7-day average still above 3,000. Have to believe we see that fatality curve start to come down the question is when, there were 3 days earlier in the week with low number but last three days are through the roof high. the reporting of fatalities still appears to me to be not the greatest as the data just is to up and down scattered.
Other very good news is hospitalization rates really starting to track down in every state. Still 5 or 6 states, including some big ones like NY, VA, Texas, SC, Florida that are just barely starting to tick down over the last few days, while most other states started to see a significant downward trend over the last couple of weeks. % patients bed due to Covid range from 8% up to an insane 35% number in California. I expect by next weekend that we will see all states really starting to have hospitalization rates on the downward trend with a steeper curve.
19.9M doses administered so far of 39.9M doses delivered to states. California and Virginia worst two states in the country for % of supply administered both slightly below 40%. North Dakota, West Virginia, New Mexico and South Dakota are in the lead with over 70% administered. Average across all states is 50%. UK and USA by far way ahead of rest of world (which not surprising as where the vaccines are being manufactured for the most part).
Good news is that 7-day rolling average is 1 million shots per day with the last 4 days averaging 1.3M vaccinations per day. So it appears that if the supply is there, getting up to the 1.5-2.0M doses per day should not be the huge issues it appeared in early January. Looks like most states have got their act together after a rough start.
I cannot find any information charting daily doses supplied to the states strangely enough. But obviously have seen in the news that states are starting to be supplied limited in most cases. Fauci was on this week saying that the J&J vaccine should be to the FDA in a couple of weeks so I would guess approval of J&J by 3rd week of February. Astra Zenaca appears to be more early to mid March.
7-day rolling average Covid case curve from a high of 250,000 cases per day just two weeks ago to 185,000 cases yesterday. So have to believe that is starting to show the effect of the vaccine some (plus the holiday spread ending). fatality rate still not much movement downward with 7-day average still above 3,000. Have to believe we see that fatality curve start to come down the question is when, there were 3 days earlier in the week with low number but last three days are through the roof high. the reporting of fatalities still appears to me to be not the greatest as the data just is to up and down scattered.
Other very good news is hospitalization rates really starting to track down in every state. Still 5 or 6 states, including some big ones like NY, VA, Texas, SC, Florida that are just barely starting to tick down over the last few days, while most other states started to see a significant downward trend over the last couple of weeks. % patients bed due to Covid range from 8% up to an insane 35% number in California. I expect by next weekend that we will see all states really starting to have hospitalization rates on the downward trend with a steeper curve.
What is the Pennsylvania percentage released? Happy Valley has many retirement areas and a large part of the local population is eligible if the shot were available.
see the below website. PA is below average and on the low end of the % used at 47%
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
right now there is only so much production of vaccine so basically at a point now where the initial stockpile of Pfizer/Moderna vaccine that they had been making in 2020 is out there (that is the 40M doses in circulation right now). So the amount of vaccinations is going to now equal the amount of vaccine that Pfizer and Moderna make and ship on a daily basis. Not sure why media outlets cannot figure that out.
Come February, J&J comes on line and based on what I am reading, probably will have 20M+ doses from production ready to go so come late February, the vaccines distributed per state is going to go up dramatically as that stockpile is sent out. This is where I hope the states are smart enough to figure this out and the Feds are communicating with them enough such that they are ready and able to ramp up vaccinations very quickly. Then in March Astra Zenaca gets approved and another vaccine 'stockpile' should be released. Such that by April, instead of the 2 vaccine makers now there is 4 vaccine makers such that the rate of vaccinations per day is going to be much, much higher than it is now plus you have that one time 'stockpile' of both J&J and AZ that is probably in the 30-40M dose range.
So the media outlets now talking about shots per day and how long are again just fear mongering and looking for clicks as they are not taking any type scientific and/or mathematical realistic look as they are essentially projecting out with the current pace of vaccine not taking into account that two massive stockpiles are going to come into play in February/March.
Interesting article on production goals, methods, and issues by NPR:
www.npr.org
How Will Moderna Meet The Demand For Its COVID-19 Vaccine?
Despite being founded a decade ago, Moderna has never had a product make it to market. And the company registered its first factory with the Food and Drug Administration just this week.
www.npr.org
I guess be careful what you ask for . Pfizer just gave us a kick in the balls . US government mandated a label change to six doses per vial since the overfill allowed for 6 instead of 5. Now Pfizer states correctly but painfully that the US bought x number of doses not vials . So the freebie is not in the mix anymore . You need a special syringe to get the 6 doses out of a vial . Draws up less air when you insert the needle/syringe into a vial . Of course these syringes are in short supply .
Just watched John Campbell’s update for today. He is very worried about the U.K. variant driving up the cases dramatically in the US. We don’t know really how much of a problem it is right now because the levels of genomic testing are relatively low in the US. at about 0.3%. This new U.K. variant is thought to result in a 30% increase in mortality levels in the over 60 population. Then there are the Brazilian and South African variants and the unknowns surrounding them about transmission, severity and vaccine effectiveness. I have read that there are US variants as well, which should surprise nobody because the virus has had more chances to mutate in the US than any other country.
The bottom line is that we are going to find out a lot more in the next month than we know now. Let’s hope some of it is unexpected good news.
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I'm coming to this thread very late, so pardon my question, but who is John Campbell? I see he has a YouTube channel, but I've not heard of him. Thanks.
I heard that people have been dumpster diving for bottles with a little left in them then selling it on the black market. Not very safe as could be contaminated, not refrigerated, seller could dilute to make more mullah.
Advisory now is to smash all bottles before disposing of them.
