Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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1.1M shots yesterday so total up to 23.5M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.25M . 56.6% of shots used national average.
Doses delivered number did not change from the 41.1M from yesterday meaning two days in a row of no change. I am beginning to wonder if that 1.5M is a weekly total of deliveries which would not be very good.
152,000 positives reported yesterday, slightly up from yesterday and identical to last Tuesday. 7-day rolling average flat at 175, 753.
Fatality was 1897 compared to 1504 last Tuesday, 7-day rolling fatality at 3238 which has been relatively constant the past week.
Hospitalization charts still going down for all states except the following: New York has sort of plateaued at 20% bed occupied by Covid patients for the past week. South Carolina leveling off at that 20% also. Florida leveling off at 14%. Kansas flat at 10%, Hawaii flat at 5%. Vermont actually increasing but only 56 total people and 4% so very tiny number.
Moderna CEO Update. This should come as no surprise to anyone, but it certainly will. Thinking a one time vaccine will eradicate this, is not understanding these viruses. But, what would the CEO of Moderna know. Hoping the mutations are not a reason to keep the economy shut down
"I believe SARS-Cov-2 is going to stay with humans forever,” Bancel said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Live. “We're going to have to have boosts adapted to a virus, like we have for flu. It's the same thing, they are both mRNA viruses, and we're going to have to live with it forever.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro...ay-with-us-forever-moderna-ceo-224622557.html
"I believe SARS-Cov-2 is going to stay with humans forever,” Bancel said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Live. “We're going to have to have boosts adapted to a virus, like we have for flu. It's the same thing, they are both mRNA viruses, and we're going to have to live with it forever.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coro...ay-with-us-forever-moderna-ceo-224622557.html
Am I correct that some strain of the Spanish influenza from back in 1918 still is around, but the human body for the most part has adapted an immunity to it? If true, then I assume that the same will happen with this particular corona virus.
The next time something like this happens, and it's not if but when, we must have better strategies to combat it because what has been done in the past year is not the answer; you have to be able to protect the at-risk groups without destroying the lives of people who have the ability to fight it off without much difficulty.
Agree. And I expect the same type of effectiveness of the vaccines, as they try and match the current strains. From the CDC site, with footnotes show 14%-54% effectiveness of reducing hospitalizations. We'll see how fast it mutates and how virulent it is.
In numerous studies since 2010, flu vaccines have helped protect adults 65 years of age and older against influenza A(H1N1) viruses and both lineages of influenza B viruses. Specifically, flu vaccines have reduced the risk of medically attended illness caused by H1N1 or B by more than 60% on average among people age 65 and older (1). Flu vaccines also have reduced the risk of flu hospitalization among adults age 65 and older by 54% against A(H1N1) viruses and by 31% against influenza B viruses on average (2).
However, protection against influenza A(H3N2) flu viruses has been less consistent. On average, flu vaccines have reduced the risk of doctor visits with A(H3N2) flu by 24% and reduced the risk of hospitalization with A(H3N2) flu by 33% in adults age 65 and older (1,2). During seasons when the H3N2 vaccine component has been like (well-matched to) the flu viruses circulating in the community, the benefit from flu vaccination has been higher. During these seasons, flu vaccine reduced the risk of hospitalizations with A(H3N2) flu by 43% on average (2). But when the vaccine component was less similar to viruses in the community, the protection has dropped to 14% (2).
- Edward A. Belongia, Danuta M. Skowronski, Huong Q. McLean et al. Repeated annual influenza vaccination and vaccine effectiveness: review of evidence. Expert Review of Vaccines. 2017 Jun; 16(7): 723-36. doi: 10.1080/14760584.2017.1334554.external icon
- Marc Rondy, Nathalie El Omeiri, Mark G. Thompson, et al. Effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing severe influenza illness among adults: A systemic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design case-control studies. Journal of Infection. Sept 2017; 65: 381-394. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2017.09.010external icon
The 1918 variant is around, but only as a reconstructed version the virus. Below in 1951 the virus is drawn into a pipette with the mouth, and this is no longer considered a safe laboratory practice today (thank goodness for that, but we'll see how much the people of 2070 laugh at what we are doing in 2020!!!)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
The 1918 variant is around, but only as a reconstructed version the virus. Below in 1951 the virus is drawn into a pipette with the mouth, and this is no longer considered a safe laboratory practice today (thank goodness for that, but we'll see how much the people of 2070 laugh at what we are doing in 2020!!!)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
you laugh at that but we have somebody in our office that is 64 years old. She used to work in the lab a lot early in her career and only goes in on occasion now if they are overloaded. about 5 years ago i walked in and she was doing some work, she could not find a pipet bulb so i saw her pipet by mouth (it wasn't a influenza virus, just a common lab chemical) but it is still done by the old timers on occasion.
Talk about revisionist history ! The headline of the Nature article about the WHO is a laugher. They completely bungled their early response to the virus.
I am sure there are many solid scientists and experts in the organization, but the leadership is lamentable.
1.0M shots yesterday so total up to 24.5M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.27M . 55.2% of shots used national average. There also was a note that California was confused why there numbers were so low (as many locations were saying they were out of vaccine which made no sense since their percent administered was so low) and in investigating found many locations were not reporting the vaccines given out as they (1) forgot to hit the "submit" button at the end of the day transmitting their files to the state and (2) some locations were using paper forms that never made it into the computer. How in 2021 that could happen is still beyond belief to me.
Doses delivered column was removed from Bloomberg interestingly. Instead of the column that had doses delivered, they now provide a column with % population per state with 1 shot and percent with 2 shots. Doing the simple math doses delivered is 44.35M. Looking back at my old post last Thursday there were 36M doses delivered. So in the past 5 days there have been 8.35M doses delivered. In skipping through the channels yesterday, I heard a brief clip of Joe Biden saying that currently the doses delivered is 8.4M doses per WEEK and that soon (he did not give a date) that would increase to 10M doses per week.
148,265 positives reported yesterday, slightly down rom day before and significantly down from 175,000 from last Wednesday. 7-day rolling average as such down some to 171, 270.
Fatality was 4045 compared to 1900 yesterday and 2,800 last Tuesday, 7-day rolling fatality up to 3417. As noted before the fatality data is just very strange to the point of being difficult to believe the accuracy as appears just massive data dumps on random occasions.
Hospitalization charts remaining relatively the same: New York again the outlier with actually a slight increase and is at 20% covid hospital rate. California continues to drop.
Death reporting has ALWAYS been a bunch of data dumps. Daily death reporting should really just be ignored and instead look back at the weekly dates of death (which is lagged of course)
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov
Good post. Thanks for doing the work. Yes the data is inaccurate. Not surprising when you have thousands of hospitals and tens of thousands of nursing homes reporting data. And that data gets funneled through fifty state governments of varying capabilities.
Interesting that we are already easily exceeding Biden’s goal of a million shots per day yet just yesterday he said the vaccine program is worse than they thought.
That large fatality number was because of delays in reporting over the weekend. Seems to have been a common problem al along.
I expect to see a significant drop in the next two weeks since forty million of the highest risk people have gotten the vaccines, thirty million of them with the second dose.
I think getting the shots in arms has been relatively solved as it appears in most states that the CVS/Walgreen/Pharmacy route is not even fully in the mix. So get them available to vaccinate the general public just like they do the flu and 1.5-2.0M shots per day should be easily doable if not more. Purely a vaccine supply issue at this point which it appears nobody really has a good understanding of what can be delivered. I assume that is because you have the pharma's making projections based on ramp ups on something never done before in quantities nobody has ever fathomed.
My gut feel is mid March we start to really see progress that hopefully puts us on a path to a more normal summer. At that point barring unforeseen issues should be hitting the 100M doses delivered value with 25M+ double doses to that most vulnerable group and another 30M people with a single dose. J&J should be approved and out there with AZ being around the corner for approval meaning supply is increasing. Fatality rate should be way down having the full effect of the nursing homes and over 75 crowd being mainly vaccinated. Hospital rates hopefully below 10% in all states. And total positive cases hopefully should be under 100K per day and decreasing weekly as start of herd immunity kicks in.
Now you’re coming around. I have been saying March/April for a month now. By May the rates will really drop and people will put away their masks. Government power hogs won’t like it and will still ‘advise caution’ but the people will move on to a near normal lifestyle.
So the world was sent into a panic with the UK variant being 70% more contagious based on computer modeling. Then that was refined to 50%. Then this from a few days ago saying 36%. Now there are reports that it's only marginally more contagious.
www.dailymail.co.uk
Danish experts say Kent mutant may be just 36% more infectious
Analysis at the State Serum Institute in Copenhagen found the mutant, scientifically known as B.1.1.7, is 36 per cent more infectious than older strains.
No one knows. It was based on the fact it had more protein spikes on the surface. The thinking was it makes it ‘stickier’ with more attachment sites. But it only takes one attachment to do it’s dirty work so having a hundred and fifty isn’t much worse than having 60 or 70. Never made a lot of sense to me. IDK, have they seen that correlation with other viruses?So the world was sent into a panic with the UK variant being 70% more contagious based on computer modeling. Then that was refined to 50%. Then this from a few days ago saying 36%. Now there are reports that it's only marginally more contagious.
Danish experts say Kent mutant may be just 36% more infectious
Analysis at the State Serum Institute in Copenhagen found the mutant, scientifically known as B.1.1.7, is 36 per cent more infectious than older strains.
So the world was sent into a panic with the UK variant being 70% more contagious based on computer modeling. Then that was refined to 50%. Then this from a few days ago saying 36%. Now there are reports that it's only marginally more contagious.
Danish experts say Kent mutant may be just 36% more infectious
Analysis at the State Serum Institute in Copenhagen found the mutant, scientifically known as B.1.1.7, is 36 per cent more infectious than older strains.
you forgot to mention how the media for clicks interposed more contagious with more deadly. And then went on to say that this variation is not yet known to be stopped by the vaccine. So essentially the media 'implied' through their language that there is a new mutant Covid virus more contagious and more deadly that the vaccine isn't effective against. Reality is all three now appear to be false, but what are the chances the media now has 'breaking news' that all that wasn't true.
This is the reason why I fear that things will never end. Media has made huge money with sensational headlines and I just don't see that stopping so there will also be reason to stay on alert.
Yeah, they are good at carefully phrasing things to scare the hell out of people. “IT MAY BE MORE DEADLY!” “IT MIGHT BE 70% MORE CONTAGIOUS!”
Been doing that and much worse for decades.
You would think that if a variant is going to develop, it would be most likely in the country with the most infections ( USA ).
If you go on the Next Strain site, you will notice there have been variants developing all of the time, all over the world.
I am concerned that this business is never going to be over. Maybe the best we can hope for is an outcome where it becomes similar to the measles.
If you go on the Next Strain site, you will notice there have been variants developing all of the time, all over the world.
I am concerned that this business is never going to be over. Maybe the best we can hope for is an outcome where it becomes similar to the measles.
