Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
- Thread starter dailybuck777
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be really nice to see the J&J Phase 3 results get to FDA next week and approved such that they can start shipping out whatever they have that second week of February.
Million dollar question is who do you give the J&J vaccine to. If I am high risk, i want the two shot vaccine due to 95% protection. Scientifically, they should actually be giving the J&J vaccine to the under 50 year old healthy crowd as basically what you are looking for in the J&J vaccine is to get to herd immunity as only 65-70% protection. And since that 50 and under healthy is really not at risk for extremely bad Covid outcomes, getting the J&J vaccine to them would to me would be the best course of action as starts to get herd immunity but at the same time the fact that it still has a sizable rate of potentially getting covid, if that groups does get it the results to the human are not severe.
I agree with your target audience. Today's WSJ has the J&J vaccine being reviewed next week.
it would be great to know effectiveness of other well known, more established vaccines. I know the flu vaccine is over 50% it's considered a success
Efficacy and effectiveness
An explanation of how the success of vaccines can be measured, including the duration of vaccine protection.
www.immune.org.nz
Boom... Great stuff. Thank youEfficacy and effectiveness
An explanation of how the success of vaccines can be measured, including the duration of vaccine protection.
Here's the CDC's flu vaccine efficacy numbers for the last 10 years. (spoiler: it's not good)
www.cdc.gov
CDC Seasonal Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Studies | CDC
Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness, 2005-2016 - CDC
www.cdc.gov
Definitely a dilemma states will have to figure out. I would imagine the strategy will be different in different states.
The Lancet article near the bottom of the preceding page is a bit concerning IMO. Manaus Brazil supposedly had reached herd immunity due to the severe outbreak last spring with 76% of the population now having COVID antibodies. But now a new outbreak is putting a surge of people into the hospital. Manaus is a huge city in the middle of the Brazilian rain forest, its near the equator and very hot and humid all year long. The article proposes 4 theories to explain the surge but the only one that seems realistic to me is a new resistant variant. If so hope it stays down there.
The J&J article is pretty interesting in a couple of respects. First, the efficacy is pretty good, but a lot of their presser focuses on outcomes at the severe end of the spectrum, which are also quite good. Somewhat reminiscent of how HIV initially focused on management rather than eradication. Second, J&J points out -- somewhat speculatively, in a marketing kind of way -- that its vaccine was tested in an environment with multiple virus variants and the PFE/MDR were not, implying that the efficacy may in reality be closer than the numbers might suggest. Third, those variants do seem to make a difference - like 10% difference. Fourth, I believe that they indicated that availability really won't occur til March.
While I'm not at the front of the line, and "technically" eligible now by virtue of a history of Htx, this is the one I've been sort of "waiting for."
While I'm not at the front of the line, and "technically" eligible now by virtue of a history of Htx, this is the one I've been sort of "waiting for."
For those who don't know Osterholm, he's definitely not known for downplaying anything covid.
Did the CDC change their Covid tracker website? Don’t see vaccines shipped vs given, US or state. US interactive map gives different results.
Edit: found it
Edit: found it
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1.6M shots yesterday so total up to 28.9M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 58.8% of shots used national average. Back to back days over 1.5M for the first time ever. 1.5% of total US population has two doses, 7.2% of population with one dose. I suspect we might see some down numbers on Monday and Tuesday due to the big snowstorm hitting the Northeast corridor.
Doses delivered is 49.2M up from yesterday 48.4M.
169,000 positives reported yesterday same as day before but still significantly down from 195,000 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 159,725. This trend seems to be flattening out. Wonder if we end up sitting this 160,000 range for a few weeks as the new norm and gradually go down as the vaccinations continue to increase.
Fatality was 3652 compared to 3908 yesterday and 3,916 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3321. So continued no movement.
For Hospitalizations, charts seem to be same as yesterday.
Only bad news is that shots given was 1.6 million but doses delivered was only 800,000. Gotta step up deliveries and production.
Hospitalizations dropped by 3000, the 17th straight day of decline.
delivered doses tends to not be a constant number day to day like vaccine given. Can have a day or two with no increase in that vaccines delivered number and then jumps by a couple million in one day. Seems like doses delivered has to be looked at more on a weekly over week basis verses a daily basis.
J&J vaccine review by Dr Z. A lot of good news in the attached video. A single dose of the J&J vaccine yielded a 85% reduction in hospitalizations and death at 28 days, and NO cases were noted at the 49 day post-vaccine mark. It appears that the efficacy continued to improve from 28-49 days. Also for those worried about side effects, the J&J jab is amazing. More side effects were noted in the placebo group.
zdoggmd.com
Johnson & Johnson's 1-Dose Vaccine Results, Explained
Here's what the results so far actually MEAN.
zdoggmd.com
Some potential good news today from an old friend and colleague. He is an oral surgeon who works in the VA system.
Apparently, where he works the COVID positivity rate has plummeted among patients already since vaccinations began.
Let’s hope this trend continues.
Apparently, where he works the COVID positivity rate has plummeted among patients already since vaccinations began.
Let’s hope this trend continues.
Maybe I did not make this clear, but the rates have plummeted amongst the vaccinated, according to my friend.
Might be too early to tell, but it could suggest some vaccinated people don’t transmit he virus.
1.6M shots yesterday so total up to 30.5M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 61.2% of shots used national average. 1.7% of total US population has two doses, 7.5% of population with one dose. Note the higher daily vaccines given is states working through their second dose backlogs as that number is 61.2% where a week ago was in the low 50%s.
Doses delivered is 49.9M up from yesterday 49.2M.
140,867 positives reported yesterday down from yesterday and down from 174,000 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 155,389. Lowest number of single day cases since November 10th.
Fatality was 2892 compared to 3652 yesterday and 3,428 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3248. So was today the day where finally we might start to pivot the one remaining chart that isn't going down, let's hope so.
For Hospitalizations, i have found a CDC chart that has the actually daily values so can report those now. Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 97,561. This is down from a peak of 132,000 on January 6th and is the first day at sub 100,000 since December.
1.3M shots yesterday so total up to 31.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 63.8% of shots administered is the national average. 1.8% of total US population has two doses, 7.8% of population with one dose.
Doses delivered is 49.9M same as yesterday 49.9M.
107,816 positives reported yesterday down from yesterday and down from 143,000 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 150,903. Obviously that daily positive is really low, interesting to see if that was just a reporting anomaly or we have taken a legit step change down. We'll know in a couple of day as if reporting anomaly the next days are always high.
Fatality was 1886 compared to 2892 yesterday and 1,853 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3255. So fatality rate still not moving.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 95,033 down from yesterday 97,561.
So in all, compared to December, January was a good month. 50M vaccines delivered, for the most part states have got their acts together on getting them administered although still needs improvement if we are to get to that 2.5M doses per day eventual rate that we need to get to once J&J ,AZ, and Novavax all come on line hopefully by late spring. Daily rate and hospital rate on the decline and showing real promise, fatality rate has to break shortly. Seems as if Pfizer and Moderna are keeping production up, J&J hopefully submitted this week and approved shortly thereafter looks like AZ more in March/April and Novavax April/May. If we can get 40M+ doses out in February, I think we have a chance to see things really starting to turn around in all areas by months end and really start to talk about next steps toward normalcy in the spring.
Look at the week over week, fatality number is the same as last Sunday as Sunday is just a low reporting day. That is why i give comparison versus day before and week over week. But at some point the fatality curve has to start coming down. Hospitalizations have been coming down now for 3+ weeks and the vaccine is out there for most of the nursing homes and starting to get to get into the 65+ and over. So not sure why we have not seen any tick down on fatality yet as the other numbers say that we should have start to have seen it last week. If we don't see that fatality number start to come down this week, then again I question what that number really is.
Are those percentages based on those eligible to receive vaccinations (excludes those under 18 or 16)? Or total population of the US? Anyone know what the actual population is for those above the minimum age?
they don't specifically say but the math would point to 330 million being the population as the basis so that would be the entire USA population.
