Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
- Thread starter dailybuck777
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Here's what I posted earlier today as a caution about the Oxford University study about the AZ vaccine candidate:
Turns out my caveat was well founded. As scientists have been taking a closer look at the data used in the study (it's a pre-release report, that has not been peer reviewed), they have gone from being enthusiastic about the news to absolutely ripping the report. Click on the Hilda Bastian tweet to read all the additional comments.
Turns out my caveat was well founded. As scientists have been taking a closer look at the data used in the study (it's a pre-release report, that has not been peer reviewed), they have gone from being enthusiastic about the news to absolutely ripping the report. Click on the Hilda Bastian tweet to read all the additional comments.
1.3M shots yesterday so total up to 34.99M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 62.6% of shots administered is the national average, 8.5% of population with 1 dose, 2.1% with double dose. Good to see the daily doses go right back up to 1.3M, I was concerned we might be down below a million for a few days.
Doses delivered is 55.9M same as yesterday 52.6M. So 3.3M doses delivered. So 6M this week delivered.
113,459 positives reported yesterday down from yesterday and down from 161,414 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 136,003. IF you are counting, that is 4 days in a row now down below 120,000 daily cases.
Fatality was 3999 compared to 3644 yesterday and 4255 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3151. So fatality rate continues to defy all other numbers.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 91,440 down from yesterday 92,880.
Anywho.....appears that we are getting more vaccines out to the states and I don't really care why or how or who is responsible, just happy it is happening. The numbers keep coming down and those positive daily case numbers are pretty exciting the step change in a month. Remember less than one month ago in the first week of January there was a day over 300K positives, we are down to 117k average the last 4 days.
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Looking at those two pics with my untrained eye they seem radically different. One is three times the size of the other, denser, with more protrusions. Looks almost like one broke off from the other.
Edit: after more study, I wonder if the one on the right is a computer generated pic with selected colors to highlight specific structures. The one on the left has much more detail, even showing the lipid coating around it’s surface. Maybe they removed the clutter to illustrate their points.
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With regard to the "reserve", I think people just assumed there was one since we were talking about holding back doses so people could get their second shot. In reality, the bottle neck seems to be production.
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I don't quite understand the concern with transmission of the virus after vaccination. We've been told all along that the ability to transmit the virus is directly related to viral load which is greatly increased in symptomatic individuals. Since those that are vaccinated will be less symptomatic, it seems to reason transmission will be reduced as well.
We know transmission will never be zero. It isn't for any other virus that we have vaccines for either. Once we knock down the amount of virus out there, who really cares if those who've been vaccinated can transmit the virus?
Makes you wonder about the deaths. How can they still be this high. It's been weeks now since everything has been declining. Maybe this will make someone actually look at the death numbers and finally say they are not real.
Lots of things to respond to.
First, think of it like polio. The Salk vaccine stopped those that received the vaccine from getting polio. However, the virus remained in the guts of those that received the vaccine, and as such they were able to pass the virus to others. The Sabin vaccine, which replaced the Salk vaccine, stopped people from getting polio AND sterilized the virus in the gut, so it could no longer be transmitted.
Sticking to SARS-CoV-2, the current vaccines prevent almost all that receive them (especially the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines) from contracting COVID-19. However, it does not prevent those same individuals from spreading the disease. Basically, the vaccine can take root in the nasal cavity. Once there, it starts replicating. Those that are vaccinated have elevated T cell and B cell levels that stave off COVID-19 within that individual. However, that same individual can, with each breath, spread the vaccine to those in their vicinity.
Also, your comments seem to miss the fact that asymptomatic individuals can, and do, spread SARS-CoV-2.
Will transmission even be zero? Only time will tell. Smallpox, which was caused by the variola virus, was one of the greatest recurring epidemics in human history. Due to a lot of work with the smallpox vaccine (by health authorities, governments, and philanthropic organizations around the world), smallpox has, essentially, been eliminated.
so that is the question. I think the latest is that those that get Covid are 'extremely' contagious for like a 3-5 day period. if you have the vaccine, does that get cut down to 1-2 days because you have antibodies actively going after the Covid? Are you less contagious because the Covid count in your body never gets that high becuase of these antibodies? all questions which i don't think there are answers for right now. So can they still spread, maybe but I don't think scientifically we 100% know that and I think that most likely if they can still spread, the length of time will be much shorter and the strength of contagiousness (for lack of a better term) will be also much lower. So true, you will still be contagious but only at a fraction of the non-vaccinated person who gets it.
I think you are copying / pasting day to day and just updating the numbers. At some point I think you forgot to edit a couple things.
The numbers spiked a couple weeks after Thanksgiving and again a couple weeks after Christmas / New Years. Hopefully we don't see another spike a couple weeks after the Super Bowl.
I don't think there are enough people vaccinated with good contact tracing to know for certain one way or the other. They do know how the vaccines work, so probably know enough to make a decent scientific guess.
Big part of the problem for testing how contagious vaccinated people are is that the tests look for either spike protein or antibodies to it. Since the vaccines trick the body into making spike proteins ....and then the body makes antibodies to it.....there is no way to easily test for presence of active virus. There may be blood tests for actual virus but these are much more expensive, I think.
They could contact track vaccinated people for a month or two and see how many unvaccinated contacts get I’ll but that is ripe with irregularities and inaccuracies.
I don't compare the Super Bowl to Thanksgiving or Christmas shopping (a lot of people in retail stores waiting in line together) and Christmas family gatherings. So don't see a spike do to some people having parties. One thing to not have a super bowl party or have it small which I think a lot of people will do (myself included as well as just about everybody I know) another thing to say don't see your family on the Holidays (something which I know most people said no way to).
The numbers spiked, but this was more due to holiday reporting lags than post-holiday infections. If this was due to post-holiday infections, the cases would have gone up long after the holidays, instead of a brief spike, then right back down again. If you take the excess cases that "spiked" after the holidays and fill in the void of so few cases reported on those holidays, and the curve looks nice and smooth
There is nothing definitive out there saying that the mRNA vaccines do "not prevent those same individuals from spreading the disease."
IIRC, on the link I posted yesterday from Vu-Medi with Dr Monica Gandhi, she was stating strong supporting evidence from the FDA submitted data on the studies showing evidence that the vaccines do prevent or markedly diminish the spreading of disease. Some of her discussion involved data has not been released to the general public . Darn link is not working today, and I don't know why.
Yeah I'm not sure if it was that, or if the timing wasn't right to release that info. Never had a video link from Vu-Medi close out so quickly. It was in the final 4 minutes of the 18 minute podcast. I was hoping to view it again as it had a lot of statistical numbers throughout the podcast.
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the issue is about the language the media and politicians use. You will hear and see the 'breaking news' and see the scrolling that the talking point is "Vaccines do not stop an individual from spreading the virus and you are still contagious'. But what they won't say is that the level of contagion from a vaccinated person to a non-vaccinated person is 85% (or pick whatever number it ends up being) lower. So one side only states half the truth to suit what they want and the other side then says the polar opposite to counter it. When in reality both of them are wrong and everybody is the worse off for it.
Be like one side saying vaccines 'work'. and the other side saying vaccines DON"T work. They can say they don't work because they are only 95% effective and their definition of 'work' is 100% effective so they can say they don't work so suit whatever point they are trying to make. Stuff like this has happened throughout this whole pandemic all not in the best interest of the public.
I know people having their regular neighborhood super bowl parties as if nothing is happening. Fortunately, a lot of their neighbors are talking about how it's a bad idea and aren't going.
We are having a Super Bowl get together. All of the people we have coming had the Rona same time as my household.
'Some' people have a super bowl is a whole lot different then most families getting together for Thanksgiving and Xmas. If you cannot agree to that difference, than I don't know what to tell you.
Do you literally turn every conversation into an argument? All I said was that I hope there isn’t another spike in a couple weeks. I didn’t steal your beer and bang your wife.
Covid trial in UK examines mixing different vaccines
Giving different first and second jabs could offer more flexibility and may offer better protection.
www.bbc.com
Novavax filing preliminary documents now with FDA, a late spring approval is possible . Both J&J and Novavax claim they can deliver 100 million doses to the USA before 7/31/2021. —- Friday’s WSJ
Heard they were far ahead and was shocked. Very rural, extreme terrain, massive area, and in the middle of an Alaskan winter. Pretty damn impressive.
Yeah. Whoever is heading the AK effort should have been tapped for the National effort.
