It has 70% more spike proteins to attach with so they made the assumption that it is much more contagious. A pretty big jump in logic, IMO.
Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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1.5M shots yesterday so total up to 42.02M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.46M . 70.9% of shots administered is the national average, 9.8% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 2.9% with double dose. So far, 32.1 million have received at least one dose. At least 9.43 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 59.3M compared to yesterday 59.3M. As noted yesterday, flipping the week over. 9.4M doses delivered last week.
89,691 positives reported yesterday compared to 111,309 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 116,256. Obviously a very low number yesterday, maybe the Super Bowl had something to do with it, but that is the lowest single day total since November 1st.
Fatality was 1340 compared to 2730 yesterday and 1908 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3020.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 81,439 down from yesterday 84,233.
We'll see in the next few days if that was a Super Bowl reporting low or a real low, but still week over week numbers continue to be on the decline. Assuming a decent day tomorrow and we will reach that 10% of population barrier having been vaccinated.
Was that Osterholm from U of Minnesota? I heard him say something like that a few days ago. He may be wrong but, in the summer, he was the one saying we'd hit 300,000 dead by December and we'd then hit 400,000 in January. Hopefully he is wrong this time.
but so were most experts, now he seems to be the only guy now. and he did not back it up with any real data or good reasoning other than saying the variants are way more contagious and they will take over and re-infect everyone.
Maybe you're right but, I don't remember it that way. I remember doubting his prediction because he was the only one I saw making that dark of a prediction.
all the experts were talking about a big spike in the fall when the traditional flu season hit. and all experts were talking about a spike around the holidays due to famiy gatherings and many more people out and about holiday shopping. so not sure what you were listening to but all the main authorities were saying those exact things.
He once predicted nearly 2 million Americans would die of Avian Flu.
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The annoying part of talking to someone like you is that every claim you make needs to be verified because you are so often full of shit. He never predicted that nearly 2 million people would die from Avian flu. He was speaking at an infectious disease conference and spoke hypothetically if the virus were easily spreadable between humans it could cause 1.7 million deaths.
LINK
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Only two things going to derail getting to extreme low numbers by late spring.
1. production issues at Pfizer/Moderna/J&J such that we cannot keep up the pace of 10M vaccines per week and even higher come mid March when J&J is fully in the mix.
2. Some variant comes along that these vaccines don't have much of an effect on.
every metric except for Fatality has now been going down for the past month consistently and fatality has to come down this month or else however that is being calculated is incorrect. And just like the more people that have Covid can spread to more people and the infected numbers grow, the less people that have covid the less potential for spread there is, the easier it is to get testing turned around quick to limit spread, etc...
1. production issues at Pfizer/Moderna/J&J such that we cannot keep up the pace of 10M vaccines per week and even higher come mid March when J&J is fully in the mix.
2. Some variant comes along that these vaccines don't have much of an effect on.
every metric except for Fatality has now been going down for the past month consistently and fatality has to come down this month or else however that is being calculated is incorrect. And just like the more people that have Covid can spread to more people and the infected numbers grow, the less people that have covid the less potential for spread there is, the easier it is to get testing turned around quick to limit spread, etc...
He wasn't at all speaking in theoreticals in this article from a now-dead link
By John Mitchell, jmitchell@VenturaCountyStar.com
September 22, 2006
At the end of Dr. Michael Osterholm's presentation on an avian influenza pandemic to members and guests of the World Affairs Council of Ventura County, Jay Berger, the council's executive director, took the microphone.
He thanked Osterholm for his talk, then added, "even though you scared the living bejeebies out of me."
Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and associate director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, said a potentially deadly bird flu pandemic is coming.
He doesn't know when or where it will land in the United States, but, he said, a serious effort should be mounted "right now" by federal, state and local agencies to prepare for it.
"If the pandemic is caused by H5N1, the avian influenza virus strain currently circulating in Asia, it could kill as many as 1.9 million Americans and infect 30 to 60 percent of the population," he said, adding that H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus detected in modern history.
Osterholm told the approximately 150 people at Wednesday's dinner meeting in Westlake Village that H5N1 has many similarities to the H1N1 virus.
That virus killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide in 1918-19, the National Institutes of Health says on its Web site. A report on a Stanford University Web site says about 675,000 of them were Americans.
Currently, H5N1 can be passed from bird to animal to human, and the virus could evolve to a stage where it could be passed from human to human, Osterholm said.
According to the World Health Organization, bird flu has infected 247 people since 2003 and killed at least 144 of them. United Nations and Nigerian health officials suspect Nigeria may be the first country in Africa to have bird flu casualties. A search is being conducted in areas where it is known that chickens live with families.
For people who doubt the looming danger, Osterholm said, "I wouldn't bet my family's life that it's not going to happen."
Currently, there is no bird flu vaccine, he said.
"We're still using 1950s vaccine," he said. "Over the decades there has been only one major modification to it. And H5N1 vaccine research results generally have been disappointing.
"We may be years away from a modern influenza vaccine with enough production capacity for the world."
When the pandemic hits, what will it be like?
"Imagine a 12-to-18-month global blizzard," he said.
Osterholm said areas to be concerned about include worker and patient protection (from the virus), and medical devices and staffing.
Even the dead will be contagious.
"Corpse management, the handling of the dead and how we grieve, will be very important," he said.
"We will see bodies pile up right here in Ventura County. You've got to start planning, locally, now."
Individuals and families should stockpile a six- to 12-week supply of food and water in their homes, he said. Business and education areas must prepare to protect employees and students.
Planning should cover quarantine, border closings, social distancing (such as working from home instead of the office), infection control and respiratory protection, Osterholm said.
Also, the pharmaceutical industry should be encouraged to increase its medication inventory in pharmacies and other outlets.
Otherwise, monthly prescriptions will not be filled.
"There are many areas to be considered," he said.
Before Osterholm's talk, Ventura County Sheriff Bob Brooks and Ventura County Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin addressed the pandemic issue.
Brooks said his department is working with public health in planning for pandemic influenza, a smallpox outbreak, a chemical attack and a nuclear attack.
The department also participates in the Public Health Bio Medical Advisory Council and in mass evacuation planning.
It is also dealing with issues of providing security at vaccination sites; responding to public disorders because of a breakdown in the distribution of food or other critical shortage. Also, plans are being made on how to provide public services despite losing 30 percent to 40 percent of personnel to the flu virus.
Levin said a critical part of his department's planning is to tell the public things may collapse around them.
"That is where they come in," he said. "The antidote for closed grocery stores is a full pantry of dry and canned goods at home. The treatment for a power shortage is flashlights and radios that crank up or run on batteries."
Levin recommended going to an American Red Cross Web site that has information on preparing for a disaster, which is at
this whole roll out has been bad. Should have been a national roll out with state and local participation. Should have been a schedule of who was vaccinated when to have the most effect to the people who need it most. Something simple like the following:
1. Hospital staff and nursing homes...Dec 12-January 7
2. Over 75 & medical professionals (and a few other professions that might be considered essential like police, fire, etc..) January 8th opening.
3. Over 70 and ultra high risk under 70 (and somebody defines what ultra high risk is) opens on January 31. Meaning even if the preceding group is not fully vaccinated yet, there was at least a 3 week window to get most of them done.
4. Over 65 and under 65 with high risk plus certain essential professoin starting March 1
6. Over 50 and under 50 with high risk plus other professoins....May 1
and so on. Put some order to it that a bulk of the group gets vaccinated before the next group can go. That way it is not the free for all now where when you said 65 and over and under 65 high risk that you literally opened it up to 50 million people overnight and did not distinguish between the 82 year old and the 40 year old smoker.
so the article quotes a virologist who was the one that did the study and said that the results need more scrutiny due to low number of participants but they pause the vaccine anyway. and that same virologist in the last sentence say that the government should be giving them as makes no sense to have the expiration date end and have to throw them out because they don't know how the AZ vaccine will help keeping hospitlizations and/or deaths down (which i thought was the whole flatten the curve thing). So very strange article that seems to contradict itself and not really give a good reason to stop vaccinating.
1.1M shots yesterday so total up to 43.14M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.47M . 72.7% of shots administered is the national average, 10.0% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 3.0% with double dose. So far, 32.8 million have received at least one dose. At least 9.82 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 59.3M compared to yesterday 59.3M. No doses recorded delivered. 9.4M doses delivered last week.
87,031 positives reported yesterday compared to 128,119 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 110,694. Two days in a row with a step change type of number.
Fatality was 1489 compared to 1340 yesterday and 1918 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2954.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 80,055down from yesterday 81,439.
So we hit the first big milestone....10% of USA population has been vaccinated with at least one dose. Daily positive cases is really dropping fast. Fatality for the first time the 7-day rolling average is under 3000 since early January, let's hope that the rate of decline starts to grow faster but at least seeing some start to that number going down.
