Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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Emergence of a Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant in Southern California
This research describes findings of sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from symptomatic patients cared for at Cedar-Sinai Medical Center in November-December 2020 during a regional surge in cases and hospitalizations.
jamanetwork.com
Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): preliminary results of a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial
Background Tocilizumab is a monoclonal antibody that binds to the receptor for interleukin (IL)-6, reducing inflammation, and is commonly used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with evidence of...
2.0M shots yesterday so total up to 48.00M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.62M . 70.3% of shots administered is the national average, 10.9% of population with 1+ dose (note this is percent of population that has been given 1 or 2 doses, so total percent that have been pricked by a needle), 3.6% with double dose. So far, 35.7 million have received at least one dose. At least 11.9 million people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen.
Doses delivered is 68.3M compared to yesterday 66.0M. 9.0 doses recorded delivered this week. 9.4M doses delivered last week.
96,806 positives reported yesterday compared to 114,463 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 105,798.
Fatality was 3068 compared to 3432 yesterday and 3668 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 2733. So starting to see a steady decline from January 27 until now, just not as steep as I would have thought.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 74,225 down from yesterday 76,979.
Obviously the huge news yesterday was that the admin has said they have secured 400 million doses of Pfizer/Moderna vaccine by END OF MAY and that they have 600 million doses by END OF JULY. So timeline pushed up by months. All these 600 doses does NOT factor in J&J at all which is suppose to be 100M doses by end of July. Fauci saying that sometime in April he suspects that the vaccine will open up to everyone. So very bullish news.
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Have to believe with the Admin and Fauci both coming on and talking like they did that they feel real good about Pfizer and Moderna production increases. Crazy enough all of the 600M doses that they announced yesterday did NOT include anything from J&J so in the end, not sure what happens when everybody who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated and we have millions of doses left over as right now we have enough doses for 400M people signed up NOT even including Novavax and only about 275 people eligible (as under 16/18 is not). So that is an extra 125M doses right now.
Key is going to be how fast is the increase in production going to roll out. We are at 9M doses so far this week and typically weekends there is none so we will see tomorrow how many this week is as last week was 9.4M doses. I think the ability to adminstir has shown to be 2M+ and that is without the retail pharmacies at full capacity due to not enough vaccine so I feel confident that if there were 2.5M doses available they could be administered with current capacity.
Once J&J get on line next month, and assuming the capacity increase of Pfizer/Moderna that means we should be reaching into that 3M+ per day range come April and we are going to need some of these mega sites to come on line as well as more local sites to get up in that daily total but I think that is doable with what appears to be happening with the Armed forces and retired doctors/nurses being called up.
Although I have no trust in the politicians to release control, if the numbers being stated this week come to fruition, we should be at 35%-40% of the population vaccinated by Memorial Day which should mean the main metric numbers of cases per day, hospitalizations, and fatality should be way down to the point of allowing some sort of true 'opening' up this summer to more normal conditions and full go by Labor day.
On a side note, with all this production capacity being disclosed this week, I have no idea why Teachers are not now put up to the front of the line starting next week to get vaccinated to allow kids back in school full time. Makes zero sense why that is not happening.
Key is going to be how fast is the increase in production going to roll out. We are at 9M doses so far this week and typically weekends there is none so we will see tomorrow how many this week is as last week was 9.4M doses. I think the ability to adminstir has shown to be 2M+ and that is without the retail pharmacies at full capacity due to not enough vaccine so I feel confident that if there were 2.5M doses available they could be administered with current capacity.
Once J&J get on line next month, and assuming the capacity increase of Pfizer/Moderna that means we should be reaching into that 3M+ per day range come April and we are going to need some of these mega sites to come on line as well as more local sites to get up in that daily total but I think that is doable with what appears to be happening with the Armed forces and retired doctors/nurses being called up.
Although I have no trust in the politicians to release control, if the numbers being stated this week come to fruition, we should be at 35%-40% of the population vaccinated by Memorial Day which should mean the main metric numbers of cases per day, hospitalizations, and fatality should be way down to the point of allowing some sort of true 'opening' up this summer to more normal conditions and full go by Labor day.
On a side note, with all this production capacity being disclosed this week, I have no idea why Teachers are not now put up to the front of the line starting next week to get vaccinated to allow kids back in school full time. Makes zero sense why that is not happening.
Don't forget that a significant portion of the population does not need to be vaccinated because their bodies naturally are immune to this virus or already have developed antibodies to it.
Estimates are that a third of the people have had it or been exposed enough to develop antibodies. Add in the 11% that have been vaccinated and we are between 40-50%. Don’t know when herd immunity is reached but we are getting there.
Keep in mind there is a large percentage of waste due to the extremely cold storage requirements. My sister set up a standby list where she works (how I got vaccinated) because so much got wasted the first time they had a vaccination day. Even with all of her efforts to get as many doses into arms a possible, they still threw some away at the end of the day.
Also, the entire world needs vaccinated, not just 330 million Americans (minus those under 16 who might never need to be vaccinated). Hopefully the WHO is working to get third world natiions vaccinated or the mutations will continue and we'll keep needing booster shots. I expect that anything the US has leftover will go towards helping out the rest of the world.
yeah, between the probable 50-60M (15-20% of population) people who already had Covid and have antibodies and the 10-15% of the population with natural immunity that is 25-40% there. Now add in 10% have been vaccinated (of course that 10% does include people that have had Covid or are naturally immune so not completely additive) we probably are in the 30-35% range now. So you can see the herd immunity starting now just looking at the numbers as everything is going down day over day. Which is why I am bullish/hoping that by Memorial Day between another 20-25% vaccinated along with the naturally immune and the already had it we start to really reach the herd immunity status.
The one third with some antiboides is likely reasonable, and perhaps you are taking this into account by starting at 40. But undoubtedly many that have been vaxed have had covid, especially nursing home residents and health care workers, so numbers not purely additive.
So yesterday from the CDC. Those that have been fully vaxed and come in close contact with a positive person do not need to quarantine if they are at least two weeks post being fully dosed up to 3 months after being dosed. But once beyond 3 months will need to quarantine.
So, how many people today have just dropped off the list of willing to get vaxed. SMDH....
So, how many people today have just dropped off the list of willing to get vaxed. SMDH....
Do you say this because you are assuming that there will be a cross section of people that now will believe the vaccine is only good for 3 months?
Yeah sadly do think that, as well as, others that will say F it, not worth it if in 3 months nothing is any better. Of the countless mis-steps by the CDC, I think this has potential to be the worst, and yeah I know that is a really big statement considering the whoppers they've already unleashed on us....
I do agree that I don't understand why they say what they say. I work with highly technical PHd and scientists and engineers everyday. The statement by the CDC is being made because the longest anybody has had the vaccine is 3 months so they cannot say for certain that after 3 months what will happen because they obviously have no data. But the way they say it makes it seems to a person that is not scientific (or the group that wants to twist the words to suit their own agenda) as the vaccine is useless after three months.
It would be so simple for the CDC to provide incremental information and just simply change the way they say things. Just saying that "as of today" we are relaxing the guidelines for those that have been vaccinated for a period of 3 months since we have data on that length of time. In the coming months, we will continue to evaluate the situation and most likely extend that 3 months as the data allows. Just something that simple then doesn't allow what you said was going to happen to happen.
In the end, I do think the on the fence vaccine group will take it come late spring when literally 100M+ people have taken it without issue. There will be an anti-vax crowd that never will but I think that in the end most will. Especially when you have to show proof of vaccination to get on airplanes or travel or other situations that will force people on the fence to get them or really be inconvenienced.
First, they have data for over six months. Moderna and Pfizer started their Phase III testing at least six months ago. I am sure they are doing follow up on this very question. Look for the CDC to walk that back in a week or two when those companies come and say hold on there bucko!
Second, this is more fear porn from government megalomaniacs. It’s nearly insane to make such a statement. It wil cause panic and fear among the masses.
They enjoy power and control. They won’t give it up easily.
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Scientifically with the very small amount of people who have been vaccinated for longer than 3 months, combined with the mutant variants out there, the 3 month window is the proper thing to do right now. That is not the problem, it is the way the CDC is announcing it without context and the reasons why they are only saying 3 months. that is the what is stupid as unless you are the very, very, very small minority that understand that context, it looks like what you said that the vaccine isn't good for longer than 3 months which is not true.
On your last comment, been saying this for since last May (although you forgot the third reason which is just as big or bigger than the two you mentioned, being able to give away trillions of dollars). Only hope is that continued public pressure pushes them to act more quickly to open things up as the numbers continue to go down.
Each company tested in 20,000 people. If that was enough to determine the go/no go on giving it to the entire country then it is enough to determine if there are effective antibodies after more than six months.
guys, since @Cletus11 started posting daily US vaccination updates, this thread has broken out in nearly daily bickering about the CDC, political aspects, what approach should have been followed by this or that leader, etc. These are ALL things that I have sought to keep this thread clear of. I've tried to clean up (i.e., remove) the stuff that I don't feel is relevant to this thread, but it's taking too much of my time.
I'm going to start a US COVID-19 Vaccination Updates thread. Going forward, @Cletus11, please use this new thread for your daily posts. And if you guys want to discuss some of the other issues in that thread, have at it. That said, I do not want it to become a political bitch fest. Regardless of what your political feelings or beliefs are, please leave them out of the new thread.
I'm going to start a US COVID-19 Vaccination Updates thread. Going forward, @Cletus11, please use this new thread for your daily posts. And if you guys want to discuss some of the other issues in that thread, have at it. That said, I do not want it to become a political bitch fest. Regardless of what your political feelings or beliefs are, please leave them out of the new thread.
Forgive me Father, for I have sinned. I will sing ten Hail to the Lions and one Alma Mater.
Sorry, but this stuff gets frustrating.
Excellent read. Lots of good info, some which is scary on the long term.
COVID-19 virus variants are evolving ‘escape’ mutations, and immune-compromised patients provide a breeding ground
Humans are in a race against the coronavirus. Only the fittest will survive.
www.inquirer.com
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