Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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so about 75 Million under 18 meaning the USA population that can be vaccinated at this point is in the 250 million range.
1.0M shots yesterday so total up to 32.8M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 65.8% of shots administered is the national average. 1.9% of total US population has two doses, 8.1% of population with one dose. I assume shots administrated will be down the next couple of days due to the storm that came through as that has to affecting a wide range of people in midwest and northeast. Be interesting to see if next weeks shots are up to make up for this week.
Doses delivered is 49.9M same as yesterday 49.9M. Appears they don't report doses delivered on the weekends.
125,454 positives reported yesterday up from yesterday and down from 152,000 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 147,839.
Fatality was 1904 compared to 1906 yesterday and 1916 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3256. So fatality rate still not moving. Tomorrow will be the day that might tell us something as the Tuesday reporting day is the day fatality numbers always jump way up.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 93,536 down from yesterday 95,033.
Keep in mind a lot vaccination station closed due to the snowmegeddon
yeah, this week is going to be low. Just hope that next week we see 1.7M shots per day to make up for the couple million we are not going to get this week due to weather. Let's hope mother nature cooperates some the next 6 weeks and gives us a mild winter as a lot of snow is going to slow down the vaccinations.
Next week’s deep freeze will slow down things as people, especially the elderly that need it most, hunker down.
Most states still have plenty of shots, so a one-time delay in deliveries shouldn't matter.
Cities closed the vaccination stations. People can’t or won’t get out. Employees can’t get there . Gonna have an impact.
not the delivery delay being the concern, it is the administer delay. there is going to be millions of people who are snowed in this week and cannot get out to get their shot. so instead of the 1.3-1.5M shots per day we averaged last week, I suspect we will go under 1M shots per day this week. So next week have to make up for the roughly 3-4M shots that didn't happen this week because of the snow. Meaning next week going to have to be in the 1.7M per shot per day range to catch up and still use the 10M shots per week (which is equal to 1.4M per day)
That's not going to happen. The whole thing just slides by a week. As more vaccination locations open up the totals will go up. They won't just magically have double the number of appointments available next week.
In my area Rite Aid has added about 10 new locations. The Lehigh Valley Health System is now taking appointments for the 65+ and under with health issues.
As with all major projects it's like a snake swallowing a rat...starts out lumpy and smoothes out over time.
the actual data/report on the Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V) vaccine's Phase 3 trial. (This is the Russian vaccine.)
A little premature, as J&J has not yet applied for an EUA, yet alone been approved by the FDA. That said, some good info in this comparison.
868K shots yesterday so total up to 33.17M with the 7 day rolling average at 1.3M . 64.0% of shots administered is the national average. 1.9% of total US population has two doses, 8.2% of population with one dose. Obviously a very down day for shots administered due to the storm, expect the same tomorrow and then maybe start upticking again end of week as people dig out.
Doses delivered is 52.6M same as yesterday 49.9M. So 2.7M doses delivered.
114,785 positives reported yesterday down from yesterday and down from 153,264 week over week. 7-day rolling average as such continues it's downward trend to 142,524. We might have just hit another low point for cases as now three days in a row step change down. Lowest rolling average since Nov 12. Lowest case day since Nov 8. Let's hope that we could see below 100,000 daily positives within a week.
Fatality was 3644 compared to 1904 yesterday and 4195 week over week, 7-day rolling fatality at 3179. So fatality rate starting to move a tiny bit. But not appreciably, this number still just does not make sense considering the huge drop in daily cases and hospitalizations that have occurred the last month.
For Hospitalizations, Total hospitalizations in USA with Covid is 92,880 down from yesterday 93,536. So the rate of decline is starting to slow some.
So I live in the CT zone and the day's numbers are posted in the NYT site every night around 1130-1145pm. I generally check this every night before packing it in. I agree with your statement about fatality numbers lagging. This continues to make me think that "dying with" vs "dying because of" is open for interpretation and possibly giving this stat an inaccurately high reading. The one number that is really straight forward is the hospitalization numbers. I find it really interesting how super smooth that 7 day average curve is across the board (states and national). Also, look at rate data for UK and S. Africa. They are dropping fast which also makes me want to dismiss this new narrative about the massive negative impact these mutations are causing.
That's not straightforward since it counts a percentage of people who don't have covid and counts people who may otherwise have never known they had covid but were in the hospital for some other reason.
OK, makes sense. But the data presents itself in such a smooth manner it almost looks fabricated. I guess I was saying the rate tend to tell a better picture of where we are heading. Based on the drop in April and then again in early August, the fatality rate should be dropping fast in the next 2 weeks.
Right, because the data is reported in a much more efficient manner. Hospital reporting lags only a few days at worst. Death reporting can lag weeks and months.
Some encouraging news about the AZ vaccine candidate. A caveat that the candidate is an AstraZeneca/Oxford University joint effort, and this study was conducted by the Univ. of Oxford.
wonder if there is anyway to get the AZ virus approved as a one shot dose and then approved as a two shot dose on it's current timeline later this spring. give the J&J and one shot AZ to the under 50 crowd who doesn't require the 95%+ immunity the double dose gives as really looking for more herd immunity in that group.
Using the Maryland data since that's where I live I can tell you that the last couple days have been less than half of the amounts tested and even though our positivity and hospitalizations have crept up a bit most of that is due to emergency room where people are testing positive even though they came in for something else.
Outside of these past two days it's been a pretty consistent downward trend in everything except the random one day here or there where deaths jump and as you said that's probably more about dying with Covid instead of from covid
we need to get J&J and AZ approved and get to 2M doses per day as soon as possible in early spring. Then Novavax comes late spring and push to 2.5M-3M dose per day Memorial day through Labor day. Those are the metrics we need to hit to have a more normal summer and then kids back to school and normal mostly fall with a complete go ahead end of this year.
J&J should be approved by the end of the month ("within the next week or two" according to Fauci on NBC today). Who knows on AZ. That may well be April.
little to no chance of that happening, as AZ screwed up their initial Phase 3 testing. The FDA has made all kinds of changes to their normal vaccine test protocols (mostly in terms of how long the placebo group and the vaccine candidate test group are monitored) for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, but those modifications do not include permitting sloppy Phase 3 tests to be used in an EAU filing.
Monica Gandhi, M.D., M.P.H., is professor of medicine and associate chief in the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). Dr. Gandhi is also the director of the UCSF Center for AIDS Research (CFAR) and the medical director of the HIV Clinic ("Ward 86") at San Francisco General Hospital................................. All 5 Western vaccines are really strong at preventing severe disease, hospitalization and death. Need to look at Novivax a little closer with the S. African variant, the other four seem to be doing well in handling the variants. J&J vax did very well with the S.African variant. Side effects have been minimal to date. Appears that there is also a reduction in asymptomatic cases as well with vaccines, this info is just coming to the public.
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How Do Novavax and Johnson & Johnson Vaccines Compare to Current Authorized Vaccines? Why We Should Not Be Worried About Coronavirus Variants?
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How Do Novavax and Johnson & Johnson Vaccines Compare to Current Authorized Vaccines? Why We Should Not Be Worried About Coronavirus Variants?
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