Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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Herd immunity in US by April???
www.wsj.com
Opinion | We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
www.wsj.com
Herd immunity in US by April???
Opinion | We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
That's an opinion piece, not a scientific article or conclusion. And it's been pretty roundly debunked.
While not a scientific paper, I think the article linked in this tweet gives a much better analysis of reaching herd immunity in the US
To be honest, there has not been enough time to determine any long term effects from the vaccines. This is essentially the largest phase III safety trial in history. I am not saying there are fertility issues, just saying there has not been enough time to determine any possible long term effects. That is the reason why drugs/vaccines generally take so long to get to market.
I have a few questions which I cannot find the answers for. Does the Covid-19 vaccine offer sterilizing immunity? If not and it only offers functional immunity, then how is herd immunity achieved under this condtion? For example, if I am in a bar with patrons who have all been vaccinated, and I have not been vaccinated, then the there is 0% chance the virus can spread to me if the vaccine is sterilizing (herd immunity). The chances that I catch the virus become much greater in this scenario if the vaccine offers just functional immunity (no herd immunity).
Some definitions which may clarify my confusion: Sterilizing immunity -- the virus cannot get a foothold in the body to become infectious. Functional immunity -- the virus can cause minor symptoms at most, but gets enough of a foothold to become infectious.
Some definitions which may clarify my confusion: Sterilizing immunity -- the virus cannot get a foothold in the body to become infectious. Functional immunity -- the virus can cause minor symptoms at most, but gets enough of a foothold to become infectious.
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they don't know, studies being done now to figure that out. most experts agree that if not sterilizing immunity, that the viral load will be way down such that transmission of the virus (basically it's contagiousness) will be greatly lowered due to this decreased viral load in the body.
Because “certain” experts have been so right about everything so far...
The basis of the conclusion in that article is that with the numbers of fatalities in the US and the best estimates of infection fatality rate, we could be starting to see herd immunity. The IFR rate in the article, I believe, was 0.23%. A lot of people would argue that is too low. Even if the actual US IFR is 0.5%, that works out to about 100 million people infected.Herd immunity in US by April???
Opinion | We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
A lot of experts are somewhat puzzled by the decline in cases in the US. The U.K. has seen an almost identical case dropoff during the same period. Other countries like India and even South Africa have been seeing big declines.
As long as we have such a loose definition of what a covid death is, we'll never get an accurate IFR estimate.
Remember if we used the definition of a flu death to define covid deaths, we'd have about 1/4 the deaths.
I think excess deaths and life expectancy declines are going to give us a pretty good idea, along with data from other countries.
Yeah, I could not believe this when I saw it. I wonder what the enticement was for these people ?
.5% IFR!?
Maybe I'm having trouble with math, or I'm not understanding something correctly - brain is pretty tired right now - but wouldn't .5% IFR = 1 out of every 200 infections results in a death?
That seems high to me.
Looks like the CFR right now is 1.75%.
So, at .5% IFR, that would mean only 3 undetected/unreported infections for each reported case.
Is my math wrong here? Especially given the repeatedly repeated hypothesis of so many being asymptomatic (and spreading), and how we know that for many - especially younger - the symptoms are mild to non-existent... Oh, then add the many who are like me that would only get a Covid test if in the hospital and doctor ordered... Oh, and remember during the first wave when there weren't many tests to give and the messaging was to not go get tested unless you felt really bad??
I don't know.... 3 undetected infections for each case really seems low to me.
Again though, I'm tired and I might be misunderstanding or doing some math wrong here.
Money and the utility of the vaccine? I personally would rather sign up for that study than receive the vaccine.
That was in reference to an article in the WSJ by an MD who is saying herd immunity may be developing. People were saying the author grossly overestimated the number of Americans who had been exposed.
I used a high IFR number to make a point.
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I think you had to receive the vaccine to be in the study. It was a challenge.
The vaccine was no big deal for me. Shingrix was worse.
No that is not the initial plan. The study now is................the project’s backers have to expose unvaccinated volunteers in order to determine the lowest dose of the virus that will reliably infect them.
This will give researchers a lot of insight into things like does the viral load impact the severity of the symptoms ? This is seen in many but not all respiratory viruses. It also gives a look at transmission risks in various environments as you alter ventilation, masking, and distancing.
Once they know the load to infect, they can in the future use a viral load of a new specific variant and deliver that load to a vaccinated individual and check for that vaccinated individuals protection against that variant.
I saw a video discussion of this and wasn’t paying close attention.
All I can say is “ Wow “ .
when i went to the dentist, you had to rinse your mouth with dilute bleach for 30 seconds before they started. not the greatest taste but understood why.
Bleach ? Sure it wasn’t 1.5% peroxide ? I guess all fabric bleach is peroxide based.
Chlorine bleach is pretty hardcore. We won’t even use that stuff in our office for cleaning surfaces.
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