Thread on testing & treatment research for COVID-19
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Study suggests herd immunity to COVID-19 in Brazilian city of Manaus
A team of researchers from Brazil, the United States, and the UK has conducted a study showing that herd immunity played a significant role in determining the size of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Manaus, the capital city of the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
According to the study estimates, the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes COVID-19 – rapidly increased in Manaus between March and April, before slowly declining between May and September.
In June, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity peaked at 52%, before then falling during July and August, as antibody levels against the virus started to wane.
After adjusting for this antibody waning, Ester Sabino (University of São Paulo) and colleagues estimated a final epidemic size of 66%.
The team says the unusually high infection rate, followed by a sustained drop in cases, suggests that population immunity played a significant role in determining the size of the epidemic in Manaus.
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A team of researchers from Brazil, the United States, and the UK has conducted a study showing that herd immunity played a significant role in determining the size of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Manaus, the capital city of the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
According to the study estimates, the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes COVID-19 – rapidly increased in Manaus between March and April, before slowly declining between May and September.
In June, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity peaked at 52%, before then falling during July and August, as antibody levels against the virus started to wane.
After adjusting for this antibody waning, Ester Sabino (University of São Paulo) and colleagues estimated a final epidemic size of 66%.
The team says the unusually high infection rate, followed by a sustained drop in cases, suggests that population immunity played a significant role in determining the size of the epidemic in Manaus.
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Link to CDC page with weekly updated overall US "deaths above normal"
www.cdc.gov
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov
i remember reading articles like this back in
I think one of the biggest travesties in this whole pandemic is the govt. not being honest and open with people about who is really most at risk. In trying to put fear into everybody that this disease is serious to them, they lost the ability to strike fear into the people that are really most at risk for serious issues. I think most know now that if you are in a nursing home and/or very elderly with multiple health problems, you have serious risk. But beyond that, obesity has been talked about as a major (if not the #1) issue for everybody NOT in a nursing home as the most serious co-morbidty to have. Throw in that most obese (and talking sloppy, very fat people) have other health issues as that pretty much goes along with being extremely obese and that group should have been told how much they are at risk way, way, way beyond a normal relatively healthy person.
A
anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
Guest
they never were going to. there was an interview with either Pfizer or Moderna CEO that i watched that said best case is that they are starting first doses of vaccine in January/February next year to medical workers and it would it not be until late summer in 2021 before medical workers, first line responders, and the elderly had been vaccinated to the point of starting to think about the general public.
I think some cross section of the USA actually thought that a vaccine would be approved, mass produced, distributed to medical people to adminstir and then given to 330 million americans in a couple of months by the end of the year.
Best case by the vaccine makers and knowledgeable people in the industry is that it will be lucky to have most of the USA vaccinated by end of 2021.
I recall that these companies all indicated they were producing over 300M doses during their trials, so that in fact there would be no latency in the process. What happened to all those doses funded by the Feds?
This post is not correct. By mid summer 2021 most of the country will be vaccinated.
The US signed contracts for Pfizer/BioNTech to deliver 100 million doses by end of 2020 and with Moderna for 100 million doses. The US has options to purchase another 400 - 600 million doses of these vaccines through 2021. It is important to keep in mind that both of these vaccines require 2 doses per patient so 100 million doses covers 50 million people. These companies have agreements with other countries so the total numbers of vaccine produced are larger.
If Pfizer/BioNTech & Moderna file applications in mid to late November then it will be between Thanksgiving and Christmas until FDA gives the emergency use authorization. So the first doses might be administered beginning in December with the second dose completed in January at best. So we are still 2 - 3 months away and even then that is only enough to cover 30% of population, which is maybe halfway to the minimum for herd immunity.
Covid vaccines roll off the Pfizer production line in thousands
Whizzing off the production line in thousands of tiny bottles in Belgium - new footage shows the vaccine that could end the Covid misery engulfing the planet.
Pfizer reported when they would seek EUA. NY Times twisted it to be anti-Trump
SMH. This article is nothing but a puke funnel of lies. It's mind boggling to me that people - including even some supposed scientists - are more willing to reduce themselves to liars than they are to let the chips fall where they may and abandon a position.
This is insane. We always thought of scientists as impervious to political bias, but I guess they are just humans too.
Politics, and social media are destroying this world - And directly causing more deaths.
...Assuming the vaccine is 100%, or near 100%, effective. I wouldn't bet on that.
Ok, so August 1 we'll tally up the numbers. How much are you willing to bet that > 50% of the country will be vaccinated by that day?
So, is this headline simply misleading, or is it actually a lie?
"Genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed genetically significant differences between each variant associated with each instance of infection."
Is it really "reinfection," if the two infections were the result of two distinctly different viruses?
Nobody has ever questioned or denied that different viruses could/would each lead to their own instances of infection.
It's kind of ironic that just a few posts up is an article about all the harm being caused by misinformation.
You’re absolutely correct. My point was to emphasize we are still many months away even under the best case scenario.
If herd immunity is 60% and efficacy of vaccine is 75%, then 80% of population must be immunized or infected.
Believe whatever you want. But multiple vaccines will be coming on market soon.
I'd say very highly unlikely. Only 50% get the flu vaccine and there will be plenty of skepticism (political and medical) about the covid vaccine
The genetic sequence of a virus will change due to errors in replication. These errors are often at a single nucleotide and have no change to the structure or function of the virus. While not genetically identical they are functionally the same and considered as the same virus. Over 10,000 genetic variations of SARS-CoV-2 have already been identified so treating these each as a separate virus isn’t practical.
However, these variations can show that the patients was infected twice versus a re-emergence of the first infection. It’s a separate, or second, infection. The infection or disease is the same so “re-infection“ is applicable even though the virus causing the disease is not genetically identical. Perhaps not obvious but I wouldn’t call it misleading and certainly not a lie.
Mouthwashes, oral rinses may inactivate human coronaviruses
Certain oral antiseptics and mouthwashes may have the ability to inactivate human coronaviruses, according to a Penn State College of Medicine research study. The results indicate that some of these products might be useful for reducing the viral load, or amount of virus, in the mouth after...
www.eurekalert.org
that would be some crazy best case scenario. correct me if i am wrong but aren't all these vaccines requiring two doses. And don't they have to be kept frozen and once thawed administered within 24 hours. The logistics of that across the country to 330 million people is mind boggling and not going to occur very fast no matter how much everybody wants it. And just the pure manufacturing of that many vaccines in such a short time has never been accomplished or even close. It is going to take a while before all the vaccines are actually manufactured, bottles, shipped, and then given to the population and I don't see any legit way that all happens from January 1 to July 31 like you are saying.
