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Tommy Stevens - hard to read at this point

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blion72

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Jan 1, 2010
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we have seen Tommy in mop up and some gimic plays where the DEF pretty much knows he is getting the ball. i am not sure we can draw too many conclusions re what he will be next year. here is what i think we know:

  • As a pure runner he is faster and harder to tackle than any QB we have. i don't think it is close. UMichigan fans i talked to were glad we did not play him full time in second half. they thought he presented more problems for them than Trace in that game - given TM was less than 50%.
  • He has a strong arm, and can provide some touch. Accuracy remains to be seen. i don't think we have much good data here.
  • Pocket presence - at this point he is like a sophomore/junior as he has not played much. He takes off and runs fast.
  • vs Sean Clifford - even harder to read as Clifford has not played much at all and totally mop up. I think Clifford is much more of a pocket passer and do not expect him to do much re running.
 
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blion72 said:
we have seen Tommy in mop up and some gimic plays where the DEF pretty much knows he is getting the ball. i am not sure we can draw too many conclusions re what he will be next year. here is what i think we know:

  • As a pure runner he is faster and harder to tackle than any QB we have. i don't think it is close. UMichigan fans i talked to were glad we did not play him full time in second half. they thought he presented more problems for them than Trace in that game - given TM was less than 50%.
  • He has a strong arm, and can provide some touch. Accuracy remains to be seen. i don't think we have much good data here.
  • Pocket presence - at this point he is like a sophomore/junior as he has not played much. He takes off and runs fast.
  • vs Sean Clifford - even harder to read as Clifford has not played much at all and totally mop up. I think Clifford is much more of a pocket passer and do not expect him to do much re running.
Click to expand...
Pocket presence is the biggest unknown. Right now, he takes off and runs when he feels pressure. This is Traces biggest advantage, he sees the field as he moves in the pocket, thus creating big plays.
 
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Michigan and Wisconsin sent middle blitzs against TS every time he was at QB and in assumed passing downs. He got frantic and was looking for an out.

It would be wise to plan on giving him live, meaningful snaps vs Rutgers. See where he is before spring camp. Otherwise, from a QB throwing the ball perspective, he and Clifford are on near even ground.
 
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It's all about playing sporadically, coming in cold, and splitting your attention among several different positions as the Lion. Franklin did not properly assess the cost. He and Rahne do not seem to understand the cost of disrupting the rhythm of the offense.

My only hope is that this has not had a detrimental effect on Tommy's development as a QB. One of the most important things as a QB is awareness, in the backfield as well as in the secondary.
 
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The bottom line is Stevens has not really played much in prime time. He has not started and played a whole game, I believe, and getting in for a few plays does not give the fan a real account of a QB's abilities.

I don't believe Stevens has the game speed that Trace does. Sure Stevens is fast enough (possibly faster than Trace in shorts), but many times what makes a scramble or designed QB run successful is the ability of the QB to get the first step ahead of the defenders closest to him. In that quality I don't see Stevens nearly as good as Trace. Stevens running ability is better served in breaking tackles, especially on red zone runs, and running over or dragging a defender for extra yardage. But taking those hits will will eventually take a toll on his health.

Yes he has a strong arm, but I have not seen the touch you seem to be documenting. Accuracy is the most important quality for a QB, and until we see Stevens play a couple of games, attempt 45-65 passes, we won't know how accurate he is. The same goes for Clifford - Clifford has thrown some nice passes in very limited reps, but we don't know if he will do that when he plays multiple games or a season.

We also don't know if Stevens will develop the pocket presence necessary to keep from taking sacks at key times, or have the smarts to throw away passes instead of taking sacks. Some QB's have those abilities early, like Trace. And some never get it, like Hack.

The staff has said that Clifford can run when he has to and is actually a very good athlete. I personally prefer a QB that can run but is always looking down field to make a pass until he gets to the LOS. That is something that Stevens will have to work on, as it seems that he leaves the pocket too early at times and also seems to be all run when he does leave the pocket.

The other tendency of Stevens that I don't believe will serve him well is in his limited reps he seems to keep the ball a higher percentage on the read option. There is a reason top 10 RB recruits are so dearly sought after, and Sanders, Slade, Ford and others to come need to get their carries, and in the long run will be the ones that account for the majority of PSU's run game. Trace has developed into a heady decision maker on the RO. In Trace's first year he did not keep the ball nearly enough, possibly at the direction of the coaches. Stevens currently keeps it too much, but when/if he is the full time starting QB he may get weaned off that a little by the coaches. We'll see.....

  • As a pure runner he is faster and harder to tackle than any QB we have. i don't think it is close. UMichigan fans i talked to were glad we did not play him full time in second half. they thought he presented more problems for them than Trace in that game - given TM was less than 50%.
  • He has a strong arm, and can provide some touch. Accuracy remains to be seen. i don't think we have much good data here.
  • Pocket presence - at this point he is like a sophomore/junior as he has not played much. He takes off and runs fast.
  • vs Sean Clifford - even harder to read as Clifford has not played much at all and totally mop up. I think Clifford is much more of a pocket passer and do not expect him to do much re running.
 
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As said on BWI before, I just hope that the QB competition next spring is a legitimate one, and that TS isn’t simply given the reigns because he waited his turn. If Clifford (or either if the incoming freshmen) is better, then he deserves to start game #1.
 
The other thing we don’t know about Stevens and Clifford is whether they possess the “it”factor. The ability to elevate their game in the clutch. Winning a championship will require at least one last drive win. That’s one trait McSorley has plenty of
 
Tommy has not had a chance to be a QB in game situations this year. Hopefully he is getting some reps in practice. Spring ball should be an all out competition but my sense is that Clifford will have to soundly beat Tommy out to get the job. Do not see a true frosh at QB for PSU in '19 unless the room is decimated by injury.

To the point above, RBs want the ball. This year Trace has kept the ball too much.
 
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PSU_Chicago said:
Tommy has not had a chance to be a QB in game situations this year. Hopefully he is getting some reps in practice. Spring ball should be an all out competition but my sense is that Clifford will have to soundly beat Tommy out to get the job. Do not see a true frosh at QB for PSU in '19 unless the room is decimated by injury.

To the point above, RBs want the ball. This year Trace has kept the ball too much.
Click to expand...

Agree. Trace has kept the ball too much but then I haven't seen Tommy hand it off either.:confused:
 
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djr4rebs said:
Michigan and Wisconsin sent middle blitzs against TS every time he was at QB and in assumed passing downs. He got frantic and was looking for an out.

It would be wise to plan on giving him live, meaningful snaps vs Rutgers. See where he is before spring camp. Otherwise, from a QB throwing the ball perspective, he and Clifford are on near even ground.
Click to expand...

And Maryland. Trace has done a lot for the program. Is there another school record left to break? Give him the first series and let him be on his way. Play for next year. Thank you.
 
He has never been in a rhythm his whole college career because of not playing. How good can he get in one year? How good could anyone get in one year? He palms the ball when he runs- first year out of high school stuff.

So my feeling is that our expectations need to be realistic/low. It’s his first year playing. We may never see his potential.
 
Player2BNamedL8r said:
As said on BWI before, I just hope that the QB competition next spring is a legitimate one, and that TS isn’t simply given the reigns because he waited his turn. If Clifford (or either if the incoming freshmen) is better, then he deserves to start game #1.
Click to expand...


This post truly epitomizes our fan base. The kid hasn't even been named a starter for a season that is scheduled to begin 9 months in the future, but already the fan base is clamoring for the backup.

The flip side to this is the fans that are convinced that the backup QB who can't beat out the incumbent is a "sure fire" 1st or 2nd round draft pick, and that some NFL GM is going take that leap of faith.
 
In 2004 I thought MRob back to QB in 2005 was a terrible idea from what I saw to that point. He wasn’t a good passer in 2005 but was a tank when he ran. He made the throws he had to make though even if his completion percentage for the year hovered around 50%.

Now with Tommy I have even less data then I had with MROB. I will trust the coaches on this one but Tommy has to get his eyes down field. He missed Hamler wide open for a probable touchdown on a roll out when he just tucked it and ran. He needs to be able to use that escapabiltiy to extend plays looking for the big pass play first, run second.

BTW, I have heard Clifford is a very strong leader and has that it factor like Trace. He will make it very difficult for Tommy to win the job if he is given a chance to compete. Should be interesting to follow. I imagine Franklin would give Tommy a chance to transfer after spring ball if he can’t guarantee him the start after too close to call spring practice or at least i would hope he would.
 
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GregInPitt said:
Yes he has a strong arm, but I have not seen the touch you seem to be documenting.

....
  • He has a strong arm, and can provide some touch. Accuracy remains to be seen. i don't think we have much good data here.
....
Click to expand...

So which is it? While it is true we don't have much data, the capability has been demonstrated, so it is something that has been "seen." Have a look at the Indiana game, after coming in rather cold, but knowing exactly what he would need to do. I can remember other times where he showed touch, but it was long ago. Could have been Blue & White Game stuff.

Tommy can make some throws that many other QBs cannot even make. See the throw to Dotson while running hard to his left in the Michigan game.

Has he made mistakes? For sure. Anyone would given how he has been used.

Is Clifford a better passer right now? Quite likely given their high school careers and Clifford's polish. We'll have to wait on whether that is enough to cover Clifford's disadvantages in a Franklin-style offense. I'm hoping for the offense to change before it is Clifford time.
 
psuro said:
This post truly epitomizes our fan base. The kid hasn't even been named a starter for a season that is scheduled to begin 9 months in the future, but already the fan base is clamoring for the backup.

The flip side to this is the fans that are convinced that the backup QB who can't beat out the incumbent is a "sure fire" 1st or 2nd round draft pick, and that some NFL GM is going take that leap of faith.
Click to expand...

I think the fan base is skiddish this year. While we rose from some really pitiful offense to the JoMo explosion years, fans felt like Tommy could thrive. This year, TS has been hurt, been pegged into the Lion role ineffectively, and generally not been given a true "QB" role beyond gimmicks. We'll never know if the majority of his runs were called or read. I think he ought to be planned into some snaps. He needs some throws under his belt.
 
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Part of the problem is the way Stevens has been used. I thought he looked solid in the spring game, but he’s barely thrown the ball since. In very limited reps, Clifford has looked outstanding throwing the ball.
Let’s see how this plays out in the spring.
 
stormingnorm said:
FWIW, not much:
McS only kept on the option two times on Saturday

The first play of the game (which has a "Jet Sweep" option w Hamler)… he kept and gained 4 yards. I ASSUME this was an "option", but it is possible that Hamler was only window dressing.

And later in the game, he kept on a read option and gained 11.

Other than that, he gave them all to Sanders (or the other TB).


Certainly was an effective route for the run game vs UW.


I assume this was largely (somewhat?) due to McS's health situation.... but who knows (Sanders was also having, of course, a very effective day - - - - but one might also think this would have led to UW focusing on Sanders and presenting a "keep" read to McS. So IDK).


Aside from the two "keeps", McS did have 5 QB draws called for him (IIRC)…. which would seem like an incongruent move from the OC if they were concerned vav McS health...… so IDK.


It really doesn't make sense..... but if "that doesn't make sense" was a drinking game, Rahne would be the best friend of every bartender.
Click to expand...

Yea it was more the QB draws with a banged up Trace that I was annoyed with... well that and splitting him out at WR but I've already beaten that dead horse.
giphy.gif
 
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Getting the practice reps with the 1's during the week makes a HUGE difference. It is difficult to judge how he will be as a starter based on what he has been able to show as a backup, given that he has been receiving backup reps (as he should).
 
psuro said:
This post truly epitomizes our fan base. The kid hasn't even been named a starter for a season that is scheduled to begin 9 months in the future, but already the fan base is clamoring for the backup.

The flip side to this is the fans that are convinced that the backup QB who can't beat out the incumbent is a "sure fire" 1st or 2nd round draft pick, and that some NFL GM is going take that leap of faith.
Click to expand...
Well, to be fair, this probably describes most fan bases when it come to back-up QBs. Poor Tommy has not even had the chance to start one game and already he has transitioned to “ needs to be replaced by the back-up.”

From what I have observed, Tommy is superior to Trace in all ways revolving around physical talent. Better arm, faster, more powerful runner, better measurables (height, weight, etc). But we have no idea how he will perform as ‘the guy” with the game on the line. That said, I thought he looked good in limited action in the Iowa game when it looked like the season was ready to slip away.
 
KnightWhoSaysNit said:
So which is it? While it is true we don't have much data, the capability has been demonstrated, so it is something that has been "seen." Have a look at the Indiana game, after coming in rather cold, but knowing exactly what he would need to do. I can remember other times where he showed touch, but it was long ago. Could have been Blue & White Game stuff.

Tommy can make some throws that many other QBs cannot even make. See the throw to Dotson while running hard to his left in the Michigan game.

Has he made mistakes? For sure. Anyone would given how he has been used.

Is Clifford a better passer right now? Quite likely given their high school careers and Clifford's polish. We'll have to wait on whether that is enough to cover Clifford's disadvantages in a Franklin-style offense. I'm hoping for the offense to change before it is Clifford time.
Click to expand...

I agree with you assessment of Stevens. He has an arm that will allow him to make throws that not many other B10 QB's can make. I guess the point I was trying to make is that even though Stevens has been competing for the position as long as Trace has been the QB, we do not know how his decision making will develop (and it seems to need some development, just like any QB "young" with experience) which goes a long way to how a QB leads a team to wins and losses.

Regarding Clifford, what "disadvantages in a Franklin-style offense" are you referring to? I just look at it as he is a pass first QB, and that in his limited real game reps he has tried to throw the ball, which he has done pretty well. I've not seen enough of him running to make an opinion that he is a worse or better runner than Stevens, although we probably know he is not as powerful as Stevens. That does not mean he can't or won't run when he can't find a receiver or when it will help the team and do it very successfully.
 
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I know us purists have it all figured out, but perhaps he thinks “ I’ve been sitting on the bench for years when I get in the damn game I’m just going to run with the ball “. Somewhat like a young colt that’s always fenced in.
 
MacNit07 said:
Well, to be fair, this probably describes most fan bases when it come to back-up QBs. Poor Tommy has not even had the chance to start one game and already he has transitioned to “ needs to be replaced by the back-up.”

From what I have observed, Tommy is superior to Trace in all ways revolving around physical talent. Better arm, faster, more powerful runner, better measurables (height, weight, etc). But we have no idea how he will perform as ‘the guy” with the game on the line. That said, I thought he looked good in limited action in the Iowa game when it looked like the season was ready to slip away.
Click to expand...
Trace has better numbers than Stevens on the program’s weight room leaderboard in the 40, the shuttle, the vertical, and the broad jump.
 
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MacNit07 said:
Well, to be fair, this probably describes most fan bases when it come to back-up QBs. Poor Tommy has not even had the chance to start one game and already he has transitioned to “ needs to be replaced by the back-up.”

From what I have observed, Tommy is superior to Trace in all ways revolving around physical talent. Better arm, faster, more powerful runner, better measurables (height, weight, etc). But we have no idea how he will perform as ‘the guy” with the game on the line. That said, I thought he looked good in limited action in the Iowa game when it looked like the season was ready to slip away.
Click to expand...

I'm not hitting on Stevens by any means, as I'm looking forward to seeing him get his chance to lead the team. But Trace has the quickness and ability to escape the rush by sensing when to run and when he has room to stay in the pocket, and the quickness to get away when many QB's would get sacked. Pocket presence, the ability to sense the rush, move as the pocket moves while still going through the progressions to find a receiver, can not be overestimated regarding a successful QB. Big Ben, in addition to being huge and hard to bring down, has it. Trace has it. We will find out if Stevens has it, or if he can develop it somewhat with more playing time. With his physical ability, if Stevens can play with the poise near what Trace has done in the last 2.5 years, we will be in for a treat in 2019....

And hopefully we will have far less drops by the WR's in key games in 2019 which will lead to a more consistent offense. Trace would be having another spectacular year without so many drops. And more consistent WR play in 2019 would help Stevens settle into the job quickly....

The comment made regarding first team reps I take with a grain of salt. Having competed for the starting QB job neck and neck with Trace translated into first team reps, and having backed up Trace for 3 years he got first team reps every time Trace was nicked and sat out some practice reps. As well as during off weeks when the focus is on developing the non-starters. Lots of QB's come into programs as true freshmen, or grad transfers, and successfully take over as a starting QB successfully with much less practice time with the first team than what Stevens already has, which I believe has shown in his command of the offense when he has played this year. And going into 2019 he will have had another full Spring and Fall practices to further get comfortable, if he stays healthy. TS has missed some practice time due to injuries but will still probably be one of the most practiced first time QB starters in the history of college football!!!
 
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Player2BNamedL8r said:
As said on BWI before, I just hope that the QB competition next spring is a legitimate one, and that TS isn’t simply given the reigns because he waited his turn. If Clifford (or either if the incoming freshmen) is better, then he deserves to start game #1.
Click to expand...

It could be the fairest competition ever and there would still be people on here claiming Stevens got the nod due to loyalty.
 
83wuzme said:
Part of the problem is the way Stevens has been used. I thought he looked solid in the spring game, but he’s barely thrown the ball since. In very limited reps, Clifford has looked outstanding throwing the ball.
Let’s see how this plays out in the spring.
Click to expand...

Stevens didn't play in the spring game, Coach.
 
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GregInPitt said:
I'm not hitting on Stevens by any means, as I'm looking forward to seeing him get his chance to lead the team. But Trace has the quickness and ability to escape the rush by sensing when to run and when he has room to stay in the pocket, and the quickness to get away when many QB's would get sacked. Pocket presence, the ability to sense the rush, move as the pocket moves while still going through the progressions to find a receiver, can not be overestimated regarding a successful QB. Big Ben, in addition to being huge and hard to bring down, has it. Trace has it. We will find out if Stevens has it, or if he can develop it somewhat with more playing time. With his physical ability, if Stevens can play with the poise near what Trace has done in the last 2.5 years, we will be in for a treat in 2019....

And hopefully we will have far less drops by the WR's in key games in 2019 which will lead to a more consistent offense. Trace would be having another spectacular year without so many drops. And more consistent WR play in 2019 would help Stevens settle into the job quickly....

The comment made regarding first team reps I take with a grain of salt. Having competed for the starting QB job neck and neck with Trace translated into first team reps, and having backed up Trace for 3 years he got first team reps every time Trace was nicked and sat out some practice reps. As well as during off weeks when the focus is on developing the non-starters. Lots of QB's come into programs as true freshmen, or grad transfers, and successfully take over as a starting QB successfully with much less practice time with the first team than what Stevens already has, which I believe has shown in his command of the offense when he has played this year. And going into 2019 he will have had another full Spring and Fall practices to further get comfortable, if he stays healthy. Probably the most practiced first time QB starter in the history of college football!!!
Click to expand...
You need the practice reps during the week. I know he has been in the program for a few years and has gotten 1st team reps, but he gets very few during game weeks. That is as it should be, he isn't the starter. My point is that you can't fully evaluate a QB who plays on Saturday but did not get practice reps with the 1st team during the week. Timing with teammates is a huge issue, esp at that position.

Mind you, I am not pulling for TS nor pushing against him. I'm just pointing out that for a variety of reasons expressed by other posters as well, there is not a complete basis for evaluation.
 
GregInPitt said:

Regarding Clifford, what "disadvantages in a Franklin-style offense" are you referring to?
Click to expand...

Franklin wants to run the QB. You can see it in all of the QB draws, even while Trace was wearing a knee brace. You can see it in what Franklin has told his prospective QBs -- years ago.

Stevens is bigger and stronger. Clifford could bulk up, but Clifford's advantage (assuming an elite passer) will become diminished if he does so and starts pounding it on the ground -- at this level of football (not high school). I would not doubt that this has been happening with McSorley, despite his "elusiveness."

This is of course just my opinion, but I think a QB's throwing ability gets diminished if their focus must include running and making run-reads. I think it goes beyond bulking up and getting beat up -- to the finer points of the passing game. Franklin no doubt has the opposite opinion on all of this. He's the HC and not me, so we know what to expect.

In terms of "disadvantage," in a way it is subtraction by addition. In a pro-style environment, just based on high school history, we might assume the opposite -- that Clifford has an advantage. I think it would be slight at this point, but can't prove it.
 
The QB next year will benefit from what should be the best OL in years and all those freshman receivers a year older. I expect better numbers than Trace this year no matter who is QB.

If Sanders comes back the offense should be pretty potent. QB just needs to be solid, not spectacular
 
psuro said:
This post truly epitomizes our fan base. The kid hasn't even been named a starter for a season that is scheduled to begin 9 months in the future, but already the fan base is clamoring for the backup.

The flip side to this is the fans that are convinced that the backup QB who can't beat out the incumbent is a "sure fire" 1st or 2nd round draft pick, and that some NFL GM is going take that leap of faith.
Click to expand...
Not clamoring for anyone...just hoping the staff plays the best player regardless of how long he’s been in the program.
 
danvillenit said:
I expect better numbers than Trace this year no matter who is QB.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And yet bulk statistics will be used to draw comparisons -- to "prove" or "disprove," while pertinent data (e.g., drops) fall from memory.

In a complex activity where there is neither random nor controlled management of pertinent factors, statistics are nothing more than what they are -- statistics. It is why I get a little concerned by Franklin's data-driven nature. Sometimes data can blind one to the obvious. I could provide examples from my own career, but it wasn't football.
 
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