Too early?? NIMO. Just for off-season conversation, I’ll offer the following – one man’s view of the upcoming season, using the 2019 NCAA Championship results as a basis. It’s simple. Just take the order of finish, remove the seniors, add in a few R12 and R16 guys (by seed), and voilà, out spits some numbers. All bias is removed, so potshots will not be accepted 
. Questions will (be accepted)…and if you feel I made a mistake, point it out, please.
Also accepted are conversation and input on where you believe returning redshirts or freshman starters or returning injured wrestlers will finish. Model is extremely simple, now that it’s done (Excel, using pivot tables), so tweaking by inserting wrestlers is easy.
Olympic Redshirts are an unknown, for the most part. I’ve removed Jaydin Eierman, as he’s announced already, but honestly that’s it. Was going to remove Kolodzik, but wasn’t sure, and as said, didn’t remove any others.
So here’s some facts, before sharing the NCAA points data. Ohio State loses the most points from the 2019 Championships. Here’s some top teams;
Iowa vaults to the top!! With only two points graduating, I’ll jump to the back of the book for a short exclamation that this logic, declared later in this post to be illogical, has Iowa #1!!
Seniors accounted for 32% of AA’s in 2019 (26 of 80). They’re gone, and everyone moves up. 157, 184, and 197 are the most-affected weight classes. 157 loses four, including the top three. 197 also loses four. 184 loses a whopping six, as all but Max Dean (2nd) and Dakota Geer (7th) depart.
The data shows Iowa with the most AA’s (seven), while PSU has six, and Nebraska five. Three teams have four (Oklahoma State, Pitt, and Minnesota), with a whole slew of others (15 teams) with two or three.
Drum roll, please. The spitted-out data says;
Iowa - 83
PSU - 81
Cornell - 52.5
Oklahoma St - 47.5
Nebraska - 46
Princeton - 41
Minnesota - 40.5
Michigan - 36
VaTech - 32.5
Ohio State - 32.5
Lehigh - 32.5
Pitt - 32
Wisconsin - 30
Arizona St - 30
Northwestern - 27
Keep in mind, this is without bonus points, and has not taken into account ANY of the following;
. Questions will (be accepted)…and if you feel I made a mistake, point it out, please.Also accepted are conversation and input on where you believe returning redshirts or freshman starters or returning injured wrestlers will finish. Model is extremely simple, now that it’s done (Excel, using pivot tables), so tweaking by inserting wrestlers is easy.
Olympic Redshirts are an unknown, for the most part. I’ve removed Jaydin Eierman, as he’s announced already, but honestly that’s it. Was going to remove Kolodzik, but wasn’t sure, and as said, didn’t remove any others.
So here’s some facts, before sharing the NCAA points data. Ohio State loses the most points from the 2019 Championships. Here’s some top teams;
- Ohio State – 60 Points (62% of total)
- Penn State – 53 Points (39% of total)
- Oklahoma State – 37.5 Points (45% of total)
- Missouri – 29.5 Points (48% of total), actually 45 Points (73% of total) w/Eierman out
- Rutgers – 29.5 Points (50% of total)
- Nebraska – 19.5 Points (38% of total)
- Michigan – 16.5 Points (26% of total)
- Minnesota – 14.5 Points (27% of total)
- Iowa – 2 Points (3% of total)
Iowa vaults to the top!! With only two points graduating, I’ll jump to the back of the book for a short exclamation that this logic, declared later in this post to be illogical, has Iowa #1!!
Seniors accounted for 32% of AA’s in 2019 (26 of 80). They’re gone, and everyone moves up. 157, 184, and 197 are the most-affected weight classes. 157 loses four, including the top three. 197 also loses four. 184 loses a whopping six, as all but Max Dean (2nd) and Dakota Geer (7th) depart.
The data shows Iowa with the most AA’s (seven), while PSU has six, and Nebraska five. Three teams have four (Oklahoma State, Pitt, and Minnesota), with a whole slew of others (15 teams) with two or three.
Drum roll, please. The spitted-out data says;
Iowa - 83
PSU - 81
Cornell - 52.5
Oklahoma St - 47.5
Nebraska - 46
Princeton - 41
Minnesota - 40.5
Michigan - 36
VaTech - 32.5
Ohio State - 32.5
Lehigh - 32.5
Pitt - 32
Wisconsin - 30
Arizona St - 30
Northwestern - 27
Keep in mind, this is without bonus points, and has not taken into account ANY of the following;
- True or RS Freshman for 2020, as only 2019 results were used. In 2019, there were 12 freshmen AA’s, by eligibility.
- Olympic RS departures for the year 2019-2020.
- Returning injured wrestlers not included. First one that comes to mind is Michael Kemerer.
- 2019 performance does not guarantee future results. Sure, what I did was fun, but wrestle the 2019 NCAA tournament 100 times, and you’d get 100 different results. Maybe most of the top guys, even all the top guys, will still be at/near the top, but order of finish, affecting predicted points, would surely change.
- Enjoy!
