Turn your Michigan hate into money...

[Grant Green]

Since legal betting may be coming to your state soon.....

Worst ATS teams in College Football the last 10 years:

Kansas 48-69-3
UTEP 48-69-5
Michigan 52-72-2
Illinois 51-70
East Carolina 53-73-2
Kentucky 51-69-3
Akron 51-69-3

 

[Judge Smails]

 

[Erial_Lion]

More like “you could have turned your Michigan hate into $”, since it would have no predictive value moving forward.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

More like “you could have turned your Michigan hate into $”, since it would have no predictive value moving forward.

Good point. That said, the garden-variety delusional Michigan fan who thinks their Program is still led byFielding Yost and dominates the country is still alive and well and they can’t help themselves. Lines involving UM will still be attractive given all the dumb money on them

 

[cjrugger]

More like “you could have turned your Michigan hate into $”, since it would have no predictive value moving forward.

So you don't look at the history of the teams playing in the game you're betting? Or the history of betting trends (ie the opinion of the betting field) on the teams playing? I guess every game happens in a vacuum

 

[Erial_Lion]

So you don't look at the history of the teams playing in the game you're betting? Or the history of betting trends (ie the opinion of the betting field) on the teams playing? I guess every game happens in a vacuum

Not at all what I said. But looking at a 10-year sample of all games a team played and something generic like “ATS record” would mean nothing heading into this year (unless you think that games that happened when this year’s players were learning to ride a bike have meaning). If you looked at this same stat in 2008, do you think that those teams with a losing record ATS from 1998-2007 had similar results the next 10 years?

 

[michnittlion]

Kansas football fact: they have not won a road game this entire decade. Their last road win was a 34-7 victory at UTEP in September 2009.

Their first 2 road games in 2018 are at Central Michigan and at Baylor. Theoretically at least - each of those games is winnable.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Good point. That said, the garden-variety delusional Michigan fan who thinks their Program is still led byFielding Yost and dominates the country is still alive and well and they can’t help themselves. Lines involving UM will still be attractive given all the dumb money on them

There isn’t enough “dumb $” coming in from Michigan fans to counter the smart $ that would be ready to pounce if a spread moved due to that dumb $.

 

[cjrugger]

Not at all what I said. But looking at a 10-year sample of all games a team played and something generic like “ATS record” would mean nothing heading into this year (unless you think that games that happened when this year’s players were learning to ride a bike have meaning). If you looked at this same stat in 2008, do you think that those teams with a losing record ATS from 1998-2007 had similar results the next 10 years?

Why is ATS 'generic'? Its really important when you're talking about betting ATS.

And yes the game results ATS from ten years ago are relevant, because chances are those same people are still betting on sports and hence, having an influence on lines.

 

[mcgunns]

More like “you could have turned your Michigan hate into $”, since it would have no predictive value moving forward.

Not at all what I said. But looking at a 10-year sample of all games a team played and something generic like “ATS record” would mean nothing heading into this year (unless you think that games that happened when this year’s players were learning to ride a bike have meaning). If you looked at this same stat in 2008, do you think that those teams with a losing record ATS from 1998-2007 had similar results the next 10 years?

relax man it was obviously just a lighthearted funny topic. and you're not even correct. there really could be ongoing systemic reasons for michigan having perenially incorrect lines.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Why is ATS 'generic'? Its really important when you're talking about betting ATS.

And yes the game results ATS from ten years ago are relevant, because chances are those same people are still betting on sports and hence, having an influence on lines.

People that influence lines aren’t the people that would be betting on the same team every week.

And no one that I know that is successful at this would care about a school’s record against the spread a decade ago.

 

[cjrugger]

People that influence lines aren’t the people that would be betting on the same team every week.

And no one that I know that is successful at this would care about a school’s record against the spread a decade ago.

Theres a reason the 'public' teams (cowboys, packers, michigan, ND) usually have bad ATS records. But ok dude, take care

 

[Grant Green]

More like “you could have turned your Michigan hate into $”, since it would have no predictive value moving forward.

C'mon dude. You know I'm just having fun.

Erial is right though. The betting market corrects itself over time. If a team has been over valued, the sharps will drive the lines down. For every 10 Michigan Homers betting pocket change, there is one sharp betting as much or more than them combined.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Theres a reason the 'public' teams (cowboys, packers, michigan, ND) usually have bad ATS records. But ok dude, take care

Since 2003 (last 15 years), those four teams have an overall ATS record of 430-436-21.

 

[Erial_Lion]

C'mon dude. You know I'm just having fun.

Erial is right though. The betting market corrects itself over time. If a team has been over valued, the sharps will drive the lines down. For every 10 Michigan Homers betting pocket change, there is one sharp betting as much or more than them combined.

I know. But as evidenced by this thread, there is always this myth that $ can be made by betting against Michigan/ND/Lakers/Yankees/etc (and I can’t help myself from commenting on it).

 

[Grant Green]

Since 2003 (last 15 years), those four teams have an overall ATS record of 430-436-21.

In the last ten years, green bay and new England have the best ats records. Ohio state is covering 57 percent! Alabama close to 54.