Hey, lookleft, I believe I made fun of a link you sent before. Or maybe that was someone else. Anyhow, I like your post quoted above. I’m not knowledgeable enough to agree or disagree, but your post is well reasoned and well stated, and it makes me think.
Under what circumstance would you attend a match in Rec Hall?
- Thread starter 82bordeaux
- Start date
I second @matter7172 that cellartracker.com is the best tool. There are good valuation tools and cellar locators (at the peak I had 2500 bottles in mine and wines can get lost in there). There is a community of tasters and some are very knowledgeable. If you find some that have similar tastes to yours they become even more valuable.
As far as research tools, developing a group of like minded friends that you can learn with is the best way. But along the line I read all the wine publications too such as The Wine Advocate, Wine Spectator, Burghound, etc... But I long ago stopped buying them because I figured out what I like. The journey is the experience. If you're lucky, someday you can visit the vineyards of your favorite wines and regions.
Sorry for the late reply. I have some short ribs getting ready to braise. Wegman's had some beauties. The best way to braise them is with Daniel Boulud's recipe. It can be found online. Good luck!
Yes I realize that. It is up to the people who feel unsafe to take the measures they deem necessary. If they do not feel safe going to a match or letting me visit them or going to the store, then they do not need to do those things. Personally, if I knew someone who had this cold virus, I would go to their house and try to catch it, so it would be behind me all the quicker.
More people must be showing up as having the antibodies for them to put this out. "There is not evidence" means they have not done a scientific study that is specific to the Covid 19. However, this is pretty much assumed to be true for all other viruses. This is just another way to keep the fear alive. My question would be - "If building up natural antibodies does not stop the risk of infection, then how can an immunization do it?".
Anyway, time will tell and hopefully we can get back to living without this cloud hanging over our heads and we can have some resemblance of freedom again.
Ummm, If there was proof that this gave immunity, that would make sense. Right now, there is no proof that this is like Chicken Pox and you can only get this once. Not picking on you, llgr. But if this turns out to be true, this is very worrisome.
Edit: And yes, if is it true that having it once does not make you immune, I would suppose this makes a vaccine extra challenging.
Of the many coronaviruses that have been studied, none have permanent immunity for those who were infected. Immunity begins to lessen after a year, and dramatically less in two to three years. Reinfection does, however, tend to cause somewhat milder symptoms.
That is one of the reasons why seasonal flu vaccines have to keep being given. Other reasons are. that the vaccine covers many different strains and varies from year to year what strain is prevalent.
That is one of the reasons why seasonal flu vaccines have to keep being given. Other reasons are. that the vaccine covers many different strains and varies from year to year what strain is prevalent.
UPMC has a vaccine for the covid-19 that was developed from research and previous work with SARs and MERs. It appears to give injected mice an immunity. The most challenging aspect of this vaccine is the time required to do enough testing to feel safe with its administration.
Coronavirus and the Kinks:
Brad Pitt as Dr. Fauci:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/brad-pitt-as-dr-anthony-fauci-absolutely-destroys-trump-on-snl
Brad Pitt as Dr. Fauci:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/brad-pitt-as-dr-anthony-fauci-absolutely-destroys-trump-on-snl
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Read this admittedly fringe article. I agree with much of what is said:
https://tiny.iavian.net/zmvh
CV-19 is neither the end if the world nor a nothing burger but somewhere in between. That said for those who are betting the farm on a vaccine providing our deliverance, you are drinking the coolaid.
Protect the most vulnerable with some pretty stiff measures, open everything up with social distancing, rigorous disenfecting, and other common sense measures, with the primary objective so as 'only' not to overwhelm the medical system, and recognize the fact that most of us will get it eventually.
Pray for several things including :
1). We don't 'protect' ourselves into the next great depression.
2). Once infected the immunity developed lasts years or longer
3). The virus doesn't mutate into something far worse, or even into strains where you can become reinfected over and over again (a la the seasonal flu).
In summary, trapped 2500 miles from Rec Hall, I would crawl over broken glass without a face mask to see just one dual while Cael is still coaching to see our boys in blue.
https://tiny.iavian.net/zmvh
CV-19 is neither the end if the world nor a nothing burger but somewhere in between. That said for those who are betting the farm on a vaccine providing our deliverance, you are drinking the coolaid.
Protect the most vulnerable with some pretty stiff measures, open everything up with social distancing, rigorous disenfecting, and other common sense measures, with the primary objective so as 'only' not to overwhelm the medical system, and recognize the fact that most of us will get it eventually.
Pray for several things including :
1). We don't 'protect' ourselves into the next great depression.
2). Once infected the immunity developed lasts years or longer
3). The virus doesn't mutate into something far worse, or even into strains where you can become reinfected over and over again (a la the seasonal flu).
In summary, trapped 2500 miles from Rec Hall, I would crawl over broken glass without a face mask to see just one dual while Cael is still coaching to see our boys in blue.
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Hope is not a plan
Wishfull thinking will not be more effective than science when faced with a scientific problem.
The more lives we are willing to sacrifice, the faster we can get back to doing what we want. We have already seen what happens when the system is overwhelmed. Our elected officials are putting politics ahead of science for personal gain (or the gain of their allies/friends)
Wishfull thinking will not be more effective than science when faced with a scientific problem.
The more lives we are willing to sacrifice, the faster we can get back to doing what we want. We have already seen what happens when the system is overwhelmed. Our elected officials are putting politics ahead of science for personal gain (or the gain of their allies/friends)
I still remember when Superfan John McClane walked barefoot over glass across Nakatomi Plaza to see Minnesota wrestle Nebraska.
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In case folks are interested and didn't see or receive President Barron's very recent email, I thought I would share it below. There is a great deal of speculation and discussion among PSU's faculty (and administration) about what will (or should) happen in the fall semester but no concrete deadline yet for making a decision as events continue to unfold rapidly in PA, the US, and the world.
One possibility, among others, is to delay the start of the fall semester (if classes resume on campuses at all). My own sense is that if remote learning continues into the start of the fall semester, there will not be a transition back to "normal" class until at least spring, 2021. In other words, there won't be a switch in the middle of the semester.
Here, too, is a piece in today's NYT offering an argument (from Brown University) for reopening Universities in the fall. (It might be behind a paywall for some viewers):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-colleges-universities.html
To the Penn State Community:
I would like to begin by thanking each and every one of you who — in a time of extreme crisis and a time when each day brings uncertainty — came together to focus on what we do best and what we are here to do: carry forward our mission of teaching, research and service to society.
This challenging time has created a global emergency — for our health and safety, our economy and our sense of normal life. The days ahead will be trying, and I fully acknowledge this communication is difficult.
As a result of your fortitude and resilience, I do believe our community will emerge more creative and agile than before and that, with your efforts and support, Penn State will continue to evolve as one of the world's great institutions of higher education.
This is a very serious financial crisis for the entire country. Our state and national economies have been crippled by the need to enact stay-at-home directives and social distancing. No enterprise is immune to these effects, including Penn State. In Pennsylvania alone, more than 1 million individuals have already filed for unemployment, creating hardship for so many families.
Our projected losses have already exceeded $100 million since March. For our University in the next fiscal year, we estimate an additional $160 million revenue loss — in the education and general funds budget alone. Our planning scenarios take into consideration that Penn State, like other universities, will face reduced enrollment — which impacts tuition revenue. We likely also face a reduced state appropriation, given the negative impact that the pandemic has had on our state tax revenues.
Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize that the University has a strong fiscal and management foundation and is sought after by students in the United States and abroad. We maintain healthy reserves, a strong credit rating and have strong borrowing capacity. All of these aspects will help in our recovery.
Action being taken: Now through June 30
Our strategies are based on detailed analysis and scenario planning to provide adequate time to assess, as much as possible, how our revenue projections are faring, and what stimulus and other supports are available to students, employees and the University in this uncertain and rapidly evolving environment.
As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, some of our employees do not have work they can perform — through no fault of their own. Each employee is important to us, however, we face significant financial losses. In order to support these employees despite the lack of work at this time, the University will continue to pay them 50% of their salary from May 4 to June 30. This includes our Teamsters Local Union No. 8 employees, as the University and their representatives have reached a tentative agreement, which we anticipate finalizing in the near future. We are planning to direct federal stimulus funds received by the University intended for institutional support, separate from student support, to help make this possible.
In addition, these employees will continue to receive their benefits based on the adjusted salary. Based on conversations with the state, we believe that most of these employees should be eligible for unemployment and stimulus support, which may reduce the impact of this salary reduction. Nevertheless, I understand this is a hardship for these employees. Employees paid from sponsored funds shall continue charging salaries, at the reduced rate, to their project budgets in accordance with their current effort distribution. There are too many uncertainties at this time to make workforce projections after June 30, but we will continue to assess circumstances and provide updates regarding whether further steps are necessary.
This action largely affects employees in our auxiliary units and Office of Physical Plant, though other units have employees who face similar circumstances. As many of you know, our auxiliary units have been hit particularly hard. They are self-sustaining units that receive funds generated by our hotels and conference centers, as well as concerts and other events held at the Bryce Jordan Center, for example. Funds also come from fees for room and board. Unfortunately, because of COVID-19, we have had to cancel events; our hotels are empty, as are the majority of our residence halls; and our food services operation has been idled.
Penn State is slated to receive approximately $55 million from the federal Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund as part of $14 billion in support for postsecondary education students and institutions. The funding comes under the recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, as announced by the U.S. Department of Education. Of that, half — or nearly $27.5 million — will be directed as noted through CARES, "for emergency financial aid grants to students" at Penn State. The University is working diligently with the Department of Education on next steps and continuing to advocate for further state and federal support.
So, from now through at least the end of the fiscal year (June 30), we do not plan on further furloughs or layoffs. However, we face many uncertainties, and there may still be a need to impose measures like these in the future.
Additional Actions: Fiscal Year July 1, 2020-June 30, 2021
In addition to the abovementioned measures, the University is proceeding with the following actions for the next fiscal year:
The University entered this crisis on a solid footing, which will enable us to weather this crisis comparatively well, positioning us to recover — despite the pain:
Next steps
It is my intent to schedule a Town Hall in the coming weeks, to share more specifics about the impacts, our implementation plan, and to answer your many questions. As appropriate, you will of course receive further communications from your unit leader or human resources representative.
I want to note especially that our Board of Trustees has been an important partner in providing guidance and support in the development of the action plan I have created, along with the University's senior management team. We are in lockstep, and that support is important to me and to our ability to navigate this challenge effectively.
In addition, I am also asking the University's senior leaders to make a voluntary contribution, to be allocated to either the Employee Assistance or Student Assistance funds. I will begin to make monthly contributions of 10% of my salary. Supporting students and employees in need is critically important to both Molly and me, as we know how challenging this time is for many.
Final thoughts
We hope, of course, to return to more normal on-campus operations by the fall, but no one can fully predict what will happen with the pandemic. We have tried to provide some clarity on the current situation for you and we will continue to share updates with our community. You also can visit psu.edu/virusinfo for more information.
It pains me to have had to deliver such hard news, and I know you have many questions. We must be realistic, yet optimistic. It is my hope that this crisis is a short-term shock to our economy and way of life, similar in some ways to a natural disaster. We are a world-class university, with diversified research and educational capabilities, and poised to thrive in our marketplace — both now and in the long-term.
We are Penn Staters. We will pull through this as a community. We always do. And we always will.
Thank you.
Eric J. Barron
President
One possibility, among others, is to delay the start of the fall semester (if classes resume on campuses at all). My own sense is that if remote learning continues into the start of the fall semester, there will not be a transition back to "normal" class until at least spring, 2021. In other words, there won't be a switch in the middle of the semester.
Here, too, is a piece in today's NYT offering an argument (from Brown University) for reopening Universities in the fall. (It might be behind a paywall for some viewers):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-colleges-universities.html
To the Penn State Community:
I would like to begin by thanking each and every one of you who — in a time of extreme crisis and a time when each day brings uncertainty — came together to focus on what we do best and what we are here to do: carry forward our mission of teaching, research and service to society.
This challenging time has created a global emergency — for our health and safety, our economy and our sense of normal life. The days ahead will be trying, and I fully acknowledge this communication is difficult.
As a result of your fortitude and resilience, I do believe our community will emerge more creative and agile than before and that, with your efforts and support, Penn State will continue to evolve as one of the world's great institutions of higher education.
This is a very serious financial crisis for the entire country. Our state and national economies have been crippled by the need to enact stay-at-home directives and social distancing. No enterprise is immune to these effects, including Penn State. In Pennsylvania alone, more than 1 million individuals have already filed for unemployment, creating hardship for so many families.
Our projected losses have already exceeded $100 million since March. For our University in the next fiscal year, we estimate an additional $160 million revenue loss — in the education and general funds budget alone. Our planning scenarios take into consideration that Penn State, like other universities, will face reduced enrollment — which impacts tuition revenue. We likely also face a reduced state appropriation, given the negative impact that the pandemic has had on our state tax revenues.
Nevertheless, it is important to emphasize that the University has a strong fiscal and management foundation and is sought after by students in the United States and abroad. We maintain healthy reserves, a strong credit rating and have strong borrowing capacity. All of these aspects will help in our recovery.
Action being taken: Now through June 30
Our strategies are based on detailed analysis and scenario planning to provide adequate time to assess, as much as possible, how our revenue projections are faring, and what stimulus and other supports are available to students, employees and the University in this uncertain and rapidly evolving environment.
As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, some of our employees do not have work they can perform — through no fault of their own. Each employee is important to us, however, we face significant financial losses. In order to support these employees despite the lack of work at this time, the University will continue to pay them 50% of their salary from May 4 to June 30. This includes our Teamsters Local Union No. 8 employees, as the University and their representatives have reached a tentative agreement, which we anticipate finalizing in the near future. We are planning to direct federal stimulus funds received by the University intended for institutional support, separate from student support, to help make this possible.
In addition, these employees will continue to receive their benefits based on the adjusted salary. Based on conversations with the state, we believe that most of these employees should be eligible for unemployment and stimulus support, which may reduce the impact of this salary reduction. Nevertheless, I understand this is a hardship for these employees. Employees paid from sponsored funds shall continue charging salaries, at the reduced rate, to their project budgets in accordance with their current effort distribution. There are too many uncertainties at this time to make workforce projections after June 30, but we will continue to assess circumstances and provide updates regarding whether further steps are necessary.
This action largely affects employees in our auxiliary units and Office of Physical Plant, though other units have employees who face similar circumstances. As many of you know, our auxiliary units have been hit particularly hard. They are self-sustaining units that receive funds generated by our hotels and conference centers, as well as concerts and other events held at the Bryce Jordan Center, for example. Funds also come from fees for room and board. Unfortunately, because of COVID-19, we have had to cancel events; our hotels are empty, as are the majority of our residence halls; and our food services operation has been idled.
Penn State is slated to receive approximately $55 million from the federal Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund as part of $14 billion in support for postsecondary education students and institutions. The funding comes under the recently passed Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, as announced by the U.S. Department of Education. Of that, half — or nearly $27.5 million — will be directed as noted through CARES, "for emergency financial aid grants to students" at Penn State. The University is working diligently with the Department of Education on next steps and continuing to advocate for further state and federal support.
So, from now through at least the end of the fiscal year (June 30), we do not plan on further furloughs or layoffs. However, we face many uncertainties, and there may still be a need to impose measures like these in the future.
Additional Actions: Fiscal Year July 1, 2020-June 30, 2021
In addition to the abovementioned measures, the University is proceeding with the following actions for the next fiscal year:
- Three Percent Unit Reductions
Over the next two weeks, deans, chancellors and vice presidents and their leadership teams will be working through how to absorb a 3% cut on their education and general fund budgets for fiscal year 2020-2021. These leaders will determine how the budget reduction is achieved, given the types of variances from unit-to-unit that exist, and guidance will be provided. Regardless, this will not be easy. While we will prioritize employees, there may still be some related job impact.
We are a large, complex enterprise and our units are distinct in their structure, thus the effects of these cost-saving measures will not be felt equally. There will be more to share once we have received each unit's report and can look at the impact broadly and specifically.
- Capital Cost Savings Measures
We also have delayed or deferred several capital projects based on discussions with the Board of Trustees, which will enable us to save nearly $60 million of planned spending. These are all important projects, and more information will be forthcoming on specifics.
- Tuition
As Pennsylvania's land-grant institution, we recognize the sustained financial hardship this pandemic is placing on Pennsylvania families, and the extraordinary circumstances for families everywhere. In an attempt to mitigate some of the financial hardship and recognizing the special circumstances of this summer session, tuition will be adjusted for the summer semester according to a pre-existing tuition structure and subject to Board of Trustees approval at the scheduled May meeting.
Penn State is one of the leading higher education institutions for online education and because of this we are able to leverage our capabilities and continue to deliver on students' educational needs and learning outcomes.
Additionally, our plan, also subject to Board of Trustees approval, will not impose tuition increases for the next academic year, again recognizing the challenging current and future circumstances of students and families.
The University entered this crisis on a solid footing, which will enable us to weather this crisis comparatively well, positioning us to recover — despite the pain:
- Penn State maintains critical reserves, which have helped us withstand past crises like the 2008-2009 recession. These reserves can be used to help manage the deficits we may face over the next few years — particularly if revenue losses exceed our projections in this uncertain environment.
- Penn State was an early adopter of online learning, and we possess one of the most highly ranked programs in the world. Our flexible offerings, which include World Campus, the Commonwealth Campuses and University Park, and "2+2" programs, position us well to attract and retain students. We will be offering support to enable international students for example, to take courses remotely next semester (or longer, if necessary) and, once travel restrictions are lifted, come to a Penn State campus for the remainder of their educational experience.
- In the recent campaign, we have seen record year-over-year fundraising that will continue to play a vital role for the University, as the economy recovers and our alumni and friends help us flourish.
- And, our research enterprise has been on an upward trajectory for several years, generating competitively awarded grants and contracts.
Next steps
It is my intent to schedule a Town Hall in the coming weeks, to share more specifics about the impacts, our implementation plan, and to answer your many questions. As appropriate, you will of course receive further communications from your unit leader or human resources representative.
I want to note especially that our Board of Trustees has been an important partner in providing guidance and support in the development of the action plan I have created, along with the University's senior management team. We are in lockstep, and that support is important to me and to our ability to navigate this challenge effectively.
In addition, I am also asking the University's senior leaders to make a voluntary contribution, to be allocated to either the Employee Assistance or Student Assistance funds. I will begin to make monthly contributions of 10% of my salary. Supporting students and employees in need is critically important to both Molly and me, as we know how challenging this time is for many.
Final thoughts
We hope, of course, to return to more normal on-campus operations by the fall, but no one can fully predict what will happen with the pandemic. We have tried to provide some clarity on the current situation for you and we will continue to share updates with our community. You also can visit psu.edu/virusinfo for more information.
It pains me to have had to deliver such hard news, and I know you have many questions. We must be realistic, yet optimistic. It is my hope that this crisis is a short-term shock to our economy and way of life, similar in some ways to a natural disaster. We are a world-class university, with diversified research and educational capabilities, and poised to thrive in our marketplace — both now and in the long-term.
We are Penn Staters. We will pull through this as a community. We always do. And we always will.
Thank you.
Eric J. Barron
President
I listened to a guy give an interview with Bill Maher and he said something in a way that really struck a cord with me. He said (paraphrasing), flattening the curve does not reduce the number of death, it just pushes back the date of the deaths. That makes sense to me and it has been lost in the discussion by many people advocating for prolonging the shutdown. I think it has been shown that we (the hospitals) can handle the cases or build hospital space quickly enough to deal with flare ups.
I still say it is time to get back to living life in the open, instead of cowering in a closet or under the sheets.
Flattening the curve may push not reduce the death total from the virus ( I have seen conflicting information). But the intent is to reduce huge spikes in hospital visits that then impact the ability of the facilities to also handle their normal non-Covid patients.
The NYTimes article referenced by dmm is written by Christina Paxon, President of Brown University. As it is often mentioned how many Pennsylvanian All-Americans there are or how many Pennsylvania natives are in Penn State's wrestling line up, well Brown's President Paxson is from Pittsburgh.
She attended Churchill High School in the eastern suburbs. That school later became Woodland Hills due to mergers.
President Paxson believes that colleges, on site, must reopen in the fall. It will however be a different world she said through testing, tracing and separation on campus.
Thanks dmm.
The purpose of flattening the curve is to buy time for both hospitals and vaccine development. Simply maintaining the status quo would have overloaded hospitals far beyond their capacities (in NY it did anyway), caused more COVID-19 deaths in a shorter span, and adversely impacted hospitals' capacity to respond to non-COVID-19 illnesses.
I also think that the choice between economy and public health, a frame which so many people seem to presume, is false. People will not be going to restaurants or sports events or if they feel there is a significantly greater chance of being infected (or become a vector to someone else's infection, perhaps an older relative), at least in the numbers they were pre-pandemic to where those ventures were profitable.
Further, the idea of herd immunity itself is perhaps jumping the gun, since the World Health Organization isn't ready to get behind "immunity passports," the idea that people who've recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from being reinfected.
Do you really think we need immunity passports to get around. If you think that is a good way to live your life, then we have vastly different beliefs. Why do we need to wait for the WHO to tell us everything we can do and how to live our life? I disagree about people not going out. I think the people who are not in the high risk group will be living life just as they were before this whole situation began. My point about flattening the curve is I think we have shown that the hospitals will not be overrun, and if they are - temporary hospitals can be built quickly to take care of the situation. NY was worried about the hospitals being overrun, but it never happened. If we live by the models, we will be in our closets for the next 20 years, because there will always be another model that spells gloom and doom. If we live be actual data, we will realize that the models have been consistently wrong and the "experts" are not nearly as smart as they self proclaim to be.
And You know the experts are wrong because you have data to prove it?
The other thing not being discussed is the millions of people with non covid 19 illnesses and injuries that are not being treated because of the ovid 19 patients over running the hospitals. This backlog of medical cases can only be postponed for so long. Once they are back in the system, it will be even easier to overrun the hospitals.
I think we have shown that *IF* we are in a heavy shutdown mode, we can keep the hospitals from being overrun.
To think we have shown much more than that would resemble (erroneously) thinking: “we have shown that thermonuclear war will never happen no matter what we do or don’t do.”
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I love stupid people. Flattening the curve is so much more than pushing the date of the deaths outward. Without the extreme measures taken by society to slow this down we could have just lived freely and watched as the number infected reached 20 million or more with half a million dead by now.
As far as let's just come out from under the blankets. Knock yourself out. If you get it and you can not breathe without it hurting could you please not whine about it. If you get it and you find yourself 2 hours after eating dinner with your wife sitting in a hospital bed hearing a doctor explain that to save your life they have to do an immediate bilateral below the knee amputation to save your life, could you please just sign the papers and not cry.
I could go on and list several hundred more examples of real life what ifs, but hey I am just waiting on you to come out from under your covers and get on living your life freely.
In case you are wondering. Yes, I work in a sea of this bug every freaking day. Day in day out, 12 to 18 hours a day. 6 weeks straight without a day off. I come on here right b4 I try to get a few hours sleep to read a little wrestling. This little motherfenning bug is contagious as hell and even more nasty. Here is hoping you don't meet the little shyt. Save the false bravado for if it ever does come your way.
I’m going to actually support something look left said. Most folks are forgetting the fact that flattening the curve does not speed our return to normal. It does extend it. It should reduce the total number of dead significantly, assuming an in-capacity medical industry reduces death. But Goggles is also right: most projections say most of us are eventually going to get it. it’s a terrible situation no matter which way you look at it.
For some, some number of additional dead because our medical system would break may be worth an improved economy. For others, preserving human life is the primary concern. And lastly, for many others, it’s simply a lack of understanding of exponential growth and the true size of our population that are informing their thinking. I will not put my trust in these people.
For some, some number of additional dead because our medical system would break may be worth an improved economy. For others, preserving human life is the primary concern. And lastly, for many others, it’s simply a lack of understanding of exponential growth and the true size of our population that are informing their thinking. I will not put my trust in these people.
If you are going to tell me that people won't get it if we continue the way we are, then fine. I may be wrong. However, that is not what we were told from day one. Flattening the curve only prolongs the duration of the virus's life. The same number will still get it. To me it is like knowing you are going to get a spanking when you get home. You can stay away from home as long as you want, but eventually, you have to go home and get the spanking. Might as well get it over with.
Saying that people should come out from under their blankets,is probably an overstatement. I know some people who are terrified of this thing and they have stayed hidden in their houses throughout the shutdown. They stick out in my mind when I think of the fear the virus has instilled in them. It may just be that at some level they know this virus is going to be deadly for them and at some level I know (think) it won't be deadly for me.
In regards to the number of infected reaching 20 million - how do we know that has not already happened? How many times or articles have been written about antibody testing and the numbers of people being infected being way higher than previously thought. I do not have the links, but one saying that NY had tested a bunch of people and 20% were already infected. Then umbers in a couple counties in California also concluded many more were infect than previously thought. I am sure you are seeing some scary and terrible stuff with and we are lucky to have people doing what you do, but if indeed we are only stretching out the time frame of the horrors as opposed to eliminating the horrors, then I say lets move on with our lives. If the projections had been correct, I could belie the hospitals may get over run. But they have lowered projections about 4 times now and we see more and more that the numbers of deaths are questionable because of categorizing the deaths as Covid 19 when they are not confirmed. It is hard to know who to believe, but the "experts" who are always no longer have my faith. Sort of like the Global Warming crowd. They have not had a prediction come true, but they have more dire predictions every year. I no longer believe them either.
I will try not to insult people with saying "come out from under our covers" any more. That is a bit condescending and arrogant on my part. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
and there we have it. we've got a certified loon on our hands. shut it down.
That NY hospitals weren't overrun to the most dire possible expectations doesn't mean they weren't overrun. People were dying in hallways. Some hospitals here have multiple refrigerated semis lined up outside to store dead bodies. Many people aren't even making it to the hospital, they're dying at home or in ambulances--at peak, more than 200 people a day over average in NYC. Ask anyone in Queens and Brooklyn and they'll tell you about hearing sirens at all hours. And everything I'm describing took place weeks after a social distancing policy went into place.
Models are just predictions based on incomplete, highly-contingent and still-developing data, just like weather forecasts. But the National Weather Service is still going to get the weather right more often than your average plumber. Dismiss expertise by disingenuous cherry-picking but I'll bet you still call the plumber and not the weatherman when your pipe bursts. Not knowing much or anything about infectious disease transmission doesn't mean you're rendered helpless to asses the reliability of expertise.
That study was promising but also flawed, and NYS didn't make the study itself available for review, making it difficult to tell what rate it was reporting false positive results--i.e., whether those positive results were for people who actually had COVID-19 and not merely colds--which is a massive distinction. But the methodology was also flawed inasmuch as it sampled from a self-selecting pool of people--they tested outside grocery stores--people already more likely to have been infected than people unwilling to leave their homes and apartments. Cuomo announced the report with hefty caveats.
Classic response, label someone a loon and attempt to shut down all conversation. It is also the height of arrogance.
Even a Climate change believer must admit that most of the predictions have been wrong, all the way back to the late 70's/early 80's when predictions were for a coming ice age. The ten year predictions are not even close to being correct from Al Gore's movie. Our own beloved University got a black eye over one of the professors "Hockey Stick" graphs. One prediction in 2008 was that by 2015 Manhattan would be under water, milk would cost $13 a gallon and gas $9.
But go ahead and label someone a loon for saying the predictions are wrong.
The problem is they are trying to treat the entire country like NYC. While NYC, and a few other places are having high concentrations of problems, most of the country has experience less sickness and death than the average flu season.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/2...yrII4E8U-QTtKl5BBAN_gtw1JMMug4FFWKaac1mfsw1mU
And part of the problem in NYC is idiotic policies like this one, shipping people infected with the virus to nursing homes that have the most vulnerable.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo...NIfxUktYa_IlavxCH8akFHsXmqv9qkaJMgwBrnGdqyQRw
And finally, some countries followed common sense policies and are coming out much quicker and with less problems.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/23/sw...4_UuF7BfhZTfmqD5_HSSk9iRgqzBYBIO8xH4ss1cFjYXY
Don’t jinx us! Because of your celebratory post, the predictions will probably come true, but tardy. Thanks a lot, poopyhead!
Thank you for the superhuman work, nitlion! Please try to take care of yourself, too. You can’t let yourself get totally used up.
Poor doctors and nurses and hospital workers! They have got to deal with the patient flood no matter how big it gets. And tired, overworked people have weak immune systems.
Especially since we’re going to make hard, lives-for-economy trade-offs that last many months anyhow, we should include some hard, even cruel mandatory-time-off rules and enforcement for medical professionals, to avoid grinding the doctors and nurses and workers into powder. I hope we already are exercising medical-worker-protection, but nitlion’s post suggests otherwise.
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4 cherry picked examples from 40+ years ago is your best support. i'd like to point you to NASA's site on climate change: https://climate.nasa.gov/
feel free to peruse their sections on Evidence: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ and Scientific Consensus: https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
i know i'm not the smartest person. as a result, i tend to defer to the most educated people in their subjects of expertise, especially when so many agree. to do otherwise is, in my opinion, loony.
These experts need to explain what is different this time than the previous times the earth had this high temperature and CO2 levels. It is cyclical, probably due to Milankovitch cycles. Also, the warm periods in the earth's history have been a boon to life on earth. Ice ages are much worse for us.
there's a saying in statistics "all models are wrong, but some are useful."
there's another saying "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good."
what i'm trying to say is that of course the experts are not going to be correct 100%, but they're more likely to be correct than the layperson.
And I am saying, they are wrong more often than right, so labeling someone a loon, versus actually having a discussion is wrong!!!
Idk. It looks like all those things didn't happen because of decisive, sometimes draconian, governmental action. Not a real strong argument.
is it really a discussion when one side presents evidence in support of their side and the other side simply says 'i think that's wrong' without providing support of their own? doesn't seem productive.
i'm willing to admit i'm deferring to the overwhelming majority of experts in my opinion on this matter. i'm also considering the consequences of being wrong. it's my opinion that being more cautious and being wrong would be far less detrimental than the alternative.
Interesting take by Purdue University. The president of the university claims that 80% of their population is under 35 years old and close to "zero risk" lethal threat. They plan to re-open on campus in the fall with campus wide testing, contact tracing, etc... He makes an interesting argument that concentrating the low risk / high transmitting populations on college campuses might help prevent the spread of virus to higher risk demographics. It is an interesting outside the box approach to be sure. In theory, it could work if there was greatly diminished travel in and out of the university setting. Of course this would be no comfort to students and faculty/staff in the higher risk groups. The open letter is here: https://www.purdue.edu/president/messages/campus-community/2020/2004-fall-message.php
