Thanks to all who followed along the first time. I agree with the comments that there were probably too many upsets so I bumped up the favorites winning percentage and am going to run it through again over the next couple of days
For those who missed it. The "tournament" is a combination of the wrestlestat prediction and a random number generator to confirm, increase, or overturn results. But basically the more dominant you are in wrestlestat, the better your chances of winning.
Instead of 5 columns like the first run, I now have 8 and the breakdowns are as follows. We will see if this yields better results. I was shocked by how many matches wrestle stat predicts just a point difference but hopefully the more dominant guys will shine through
1 pt. favorite: 75% chance of winning (was 66%), 60% by decision, 9% major, 1% tf, 5% fall, 18% loss by decision, 2% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 5% loss by fall
2-3 pt. favorite: 80% chance of winning (was 66%), 63% by decision, 10% by major, 1% by tech, 6% by fall, 17% loss by decision, 0% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 3% loss by fall
4-5 pt. favorite: 87% chance of winning (was 80%). 63% by decision, 16% by major, 1% by tech fall, 7% by fall, 11% loss by decision, 0% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 2% loss by fall
6-7 pt. favorite: 93% chance of winning (was 80%), 41% by decision, 40% by major, 4% by tech fall, 8% by fall, 6% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
8-11 pt. favorite: 95% chance of winning (was 90%), 29% win by decision, 47% win by major, 7% win by tech, 12% win by fall, 4% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
12-14 pt. favorite: 97% chance of winning (was 90%), 20% win by decision, 33% win by major, 26% win by tech, 18% win by fall, 1% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
tf favorite: 98% chance of winning (was 96%), 13% by decision, 27% by major, 30% by tech, 28% by fall, 1% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
fall favorite: 99% chance of winning (was 98%), 9% by decision, 25% by major, 25% by tech, 40% by fall, 1% loss by fall
For those who missed it. The "tournament" is a combination of the wrestlestat prediction and a random number generator to confirm, increase, or overturn results. But basically the more dominant you are in wrestlestat, the better your chances of winning.
Instead of 5 columns like the first run, I now have 8 and the breakdowns are as follows. We will see if this yields better results. I was shocked by how many matches wrestle stat predicts just a point difference but hopefully the more dominant guys will shine through
1 pt. favorite: 75% chance of winning (was 66%), 60% by decision, 9% major, 1% tf, 5% fall, 18% loss by decision, 2% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 5% loss by fall
2-3 pt. favorite: 80% chance of winning (was 66%), 63% by decision, 10% by major, 1% by tech, 6% by fall, 17% loss by decision, 0% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 3% loss by fall
4-5 pt. favorite: 87% chance of winning (was 80%). 63% by decision, 16% by major, 1% by tech fall, 7% by fall, 11% loss by decision, 0% loss by major, 0% loss by tech, 2% loss by fall
6-7 pt. favorite: 93% chance of winning (was 80%), 41% by decision, 40% by major, 4% by tech fall, 8% by fall, 6% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
8-11 pt. favorite: 95% chance of winning (was 90%), 29% win by decision, 47% win by major, 7% win by tech, 12% win by fall, 4% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
12-14 pt. favorite: 97% chance of winning (was 90%), 20% win by decision, 33% win by major, 26% win by tech, 18% win by fall, 1% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
tf favorite: 98% chance of winning (was 96%), 13% by decision, 27% by major, 30% by tech, 28% by fall, 1% loss by decision, 1% loss by fall
fall favorite: 99% chance of winning (was 98%), 9% by decision, 25% by major, 25% by tech, 40% by fall, 1% loss by fall