does anybody really believe we are anywhere near what it would take to make the final 4? I just don't see it happening. Back in Joe's prime with an independent schedule, conference bowl game tie ins and unlimited scholarships we had a fighting chance but in this era not sure it can happen.
We might be on the cusp of 9 or 10 win seasons but...
- Thread starter BBHorn86
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I think we are still 2 years away from 9-10 wins to be honest.
And you are right. We sit on here and say OU was overrated, but they would beat us easily.
That may be true but my point is 9 or 10 wins might be our ceiling.
I struggle with us getting out of our division let alone anything truly big nationally.
I totally agree. Unless we play on the edge of the rules like the SEC and their like, we will seldom be in the mix. There may be a year, out of every 8-10, when we catch lightning in a bottle...favorable schedule, senior laden team, lucky bounces....and we may get in, but we will not be an annual player unless we play by SEC rules.
I don't see Franklin developing the football factory necessary to regularly compete for a national championship. He is and will continue to bring in talent, but he will pass on some talent due to academics and will not run an All-Football-All-The-Time program needed to compete for a national championship year in, year out. I just don't see it happening at Penn State.
Only a handful of schools have a legitimate shot at making the final four consistently. Everyone else needs to hope to catch lightning in a bottle every once in awhile.
Does anyone honestly believe if Clemson, Oklahoma, Bama of MSU were 1 year removed from 65 scholarships that they'd be in the final 4....or even close?
And for PSU we also need to hope OSU, MSU and Michigan don't in the same year. I'm not a math guy but I thinking that makes the odds even longer for us.
Last time the NCAA really hit Bama they disappeared for a decade. They weren't hit anywhere near like PSU was, but someone thinks there might be a PSU fan calling for a MNC next year!
Of course not. That doesn't change the initial premise that this team is a long way off from Playoff level.
It is and even were we to resurrect a 40-something Joe Paterno, Penn State might not reach that level in today's game.
Demographics and the college football landscape have drastically shifted to the South. OSU is an anomaly among northern teams. There are few programs that can outright compete year in and year out.
Is your saying that we are nowhere near the playoffs your way of saying that CJF isn't doing a satisfactory job? Nobody with any credibility/brains expected 10 wins in the last 4 seasons. Ten wins next year should get CJF coach of the year. I think we are two years away from being at a place where the stars could align eventually. When I say align, I mean that you have the right senior guys back for leadership and the young talent, and few injuries, and the ball bouncing the right way, and the penalties going your way when you need them.
I think there are 4 or 5 that will challenge every year (Bama, tOSU, USC, FSU). Maybe there are likely 10 or 20 teams that are at a place where they could challenge for the playoffs if the stars align, Penn State will eventually get to this point under CJF. I guess that leaves 30 or so teams that need out of this world performances and every break in order to challenge for the playoffs. Nobody else has a shot.
I think there are 4 or 5 that will challenge every year (Bama, tOSU, USC, FSU). Maybe there are likely 10 or 20 teams that are at a place where they could challenge for the playoffs if the stars align, Penn State will eventually get to this point under CJF. I guess that leaves 30 or so teams that need out of this world performances and every break in order to challenge for the playoffs. Nobody else has a shot.
Last time the NCAA really hit Bama they disappeared for a decade. They weren't hit anywhere near like PSU was, but someone thinks there might be a PSU fan calling for a MNC next year!
The point I'm making... It is highly unlikely PSU will ever again win a MNC which by definition is now no longer mythical.
So you are taking the field. Brilliant due to where they are at currently.
Good point. In fairness it is probably a little too soon to right off the possibility for all time but if we are seeing the same product on the field by this time next year we might have arrived as just any other Big Ten also ran. I hope that is not the case but I'm also not in favor of ditching the grand experiment mindset just to win NCs.
Did any of you foresee MSU in the final 4 or Iowa in the Rose Bowl this year? The best way to get to the front is to sneak up to it.
Winning the B1G east once every 4 years is certainly reasonable, but not an easy task with 3 of the top 5 coaches in cfb to beat out. Difficult yes, but win this division and we will be favored in B1G title game. Win that and State's in the F4. That's a great accomplishment for any program considering this playoff is not a tournament with 64 teams like CBB; it crowns a true champ where every game counts. State can and will do that; we the 12th man are certainly part of the plan for all home games.
We have a great recruiting class coming in. When they are seniors we might have a shot of being in the mix. But coaching and player development has to be just as good as the recruiting was. We'll see. If Franklin can't produce a top 15 team by 2019 I think he may not be the one. I think that's a fair timeline/goal. He didn't exactly inherit the greatest situation of all time.
Penn State had a self imposed 35/year ship limit - not unlimited - there was supposed to be an agreement with Syracuse, Pitt and several others to the 35 ship limit and then Jackie Sherrill and Pitt broke the agreement and signed 82 one year. Four years later Pitt had their one and only NC.
Gee, did anyone predict a 13 win season for Houston coming into the year? Houston just rolled the most successful BCS-Conference Team since the advent of the BCS-Conference Rigged 4-Team Invitational Tournament (F$U is 37-3 since 2013 with 2 of 3 Invitational Tournaments made and a Championship in 2013). Houston handled and rolled F$U far easier than #1 Clemson did and Clemson won their first game easy! My point is, teams can come together much quicker than you understand once a coach starts getting his top-end talent into his system.....this already started to happen this year with Franklin and will happen at even more accelerated rate in 2016 as Franklin will have 3 recruiting classes in the system. Again, it can gel very quickly, but does not "have to" - it can take longer too; it's just a question of chemistry and quite a bit of luck with things like avoiding injuries, etc....
To compare Penn State and Michigan State, I'd say PSU has advantages in recruiting territory and fan support. If Michigan State, which seems to teach character and playing by the rules, can reach the playoffs, I don't see why Penn State can't. No need to be gloomy about future prospects.
MSU is in the playoffs. That alone puts them 2 steps ahead of you. Kids want to play for a contender.
CJF has it tough. He's facing three really good coaches in his own division. Hard to see him breaking through that log jam
Well, I think Franklin will put our program at the level we should be at. We can play year in and year out with OSUs of the world. He gets that. His recruiting thus far demonstrates that as well. Classes are just as good. AND he gets that talented kids want the NFL. He has said you can get a degree and leave for the NFL after your Junior year. He is selling that to recruits. It is mostly about quality and quantity !! They are coming. I really think had Wimbush not jumped to ND fans would be far more positive.
The only question I have is can he coach and win with talent? We will know that in the next 2-3 years.
As for me, a reluctant fan of his, I now believe he is PSU.
The only question I have is can he coach and win with talent? We will know that in the next 2-3 years.
As for me, a reluctant fan of his, I now believe he is PSU.
Well, over last 4 years, Clemson has an average 10 ranked class, Oklahoma 14, Alabama 1 and MSU around 40. Obviously 4 great coaches but the talent level can be as good or better than 3 of the current teams.
MSU is playing with 20 Fifth Year Seniors. Lets see how good they are next season.
I'm actually surprised by the pessimism in this thread. I think PSU could easily be in the final 4 within a few years. Franklin's recruiting has been unbelievably good and will only get better. It seems like people are forgetting what they've been up against since the sanctions. If they consistently recruit top 10 classes they'll have a chance every year. They are arguably getting the best RB, best OL, and best DE in the country in this class. Alabama and the SEC do play by other rules, but the SEC will typically only take up one slot in the final 4. And let's be honest, Alabama consistently has the top recruiting class in the country. It's not complex-they get the best players and are typically the best team. The rest of the SEC has been mediocre the last couple of years. If PSU wins the big, and they will, they'll be in the thick of it. I don't really understand the logic here that they have no chance. In my eyes they are right on schedule to get back to national prominence very soon.
It makes no sense to measure the program when they've barely had one year to carry out full contact practice on the regular basis because of depth issues. Sure they aren't a very good team right now, but to me they have been very successful considering the circumstances. They've weathered the storm with winning records.
in 2017 his original class will be seniors. at that point he will have a full class of his recruits. hopefully, he has gotten to a place to compete in the top 25. if he is not there by then, it is hard to say when he will get there.
Yes, if they consistently recruit top 10 classes they have a chance. Right now they will have their first top 10 class if they close 2016 strong. Of course OSU and Mich have Top 5 classes and we have to beat them to even get out of the East
I think they'll be very good by 2017. However, I don't think you can measure the success of a football coach by his first recruiting class after they've become seniors. In basketball you can kind of do that, but in this case with sanctions and a decimated program, I don't think that kind of measurement works. You can't recruit a full team or even a starting lineup with a recruiting class. Was the 2013 class even a full class of 25?
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