Weaker Weight Class
- Thread starter sunshinedynomite
- Start date
157 has Levi Haines in it. So, I'm gonna have to say 125.
Put those two fields into one combined bracket, forget the obvious weight difference -- do any 125s other than Lee and Glory place top 8?
Ask the same question about 157 -- Andonian, O'Connor, Robb, Franek all in. And the other 157 contenders seem more likely than the 125s.
Same if we ask top 12. Maybe evens out if we ask top 16?
Ask the same question about 157 -- Andonian, O'Connor, Robb, Franek all in. And the other 157 contenders seem more likely than the 125s.
Same if we ask top 12. Maybe evens out if we ask top 16?
Picking any weight class as weakest would take alot of in depth digging and still not get it right. Really cant base on rankings, they shouldnt even be done till right before conference championships or past AA’s unless u take in every yr they AA in against their season that yr and their brackets leading up to that AA. Who was out at that weight who was injured so forth. IMO most yrs it would be 125 just for fact you have alot of freshman, sophomore’s, kids grow out of that weight, but you have other weights that on a given yr that happens as well.
*Puts on full hockey uniform*
I actually think this is a place where Wrestlestat's modified ELO can be really useful in normalizing rankings across weights. Never going to be perfect, but I think it's pretty solid. If you line up the top 20 in each class:
125 - Top 2
157 - 8 of top 10 (2/10)
157 - 12 of top 20 (4/10)
157 - 19 of top 30 (7/10)
Numbers start getting screwier here because I didn't compile them in a way that brings every 157 into the range where 125 ends, maybe a project for a different day.
Mean ranking
157: 16.3
125: 24.7
Median Ranking
157: 17 (16 and 18 at 10 and 11)
125: 27.5 (25 and 30 at 10 and 11)
Based on this data set, I'd say 125 is very top-heavy, but 157 is harder overall to AA.
I actually think this is a place where Wrestlestat's modified ELO can be really useful in normalizing rankings across weights. Never going to be perfect, but I think it's pretty solid. If you line up the top 20 in each class:
125 - Top 2
157 - 8 of top 10 (2/10)
157 - 12 of top 20 (4/10)
157 - 19 of top 30 (7/10)
Numbers start getting screwier here because I didn't compile them in a way that brings every 157 into the range where 125 ends, maybe a project for a different day.
Mean ranking
157: 16.3
125: 24.7
Median Ranking
157: 17 (16 and 18 at 10 and 11)
125: 27.5 (25 and 30 at 10 and 11)
Based on this data set, I'd say 125 is very top-heavy, but 157 is harder overall to AA.
You obviously weren't looking at the other corner.
Glory has been wrestling 133 for the last 2 weekends (4 matches), supposedly because he's having trouble holding the weight, but he's supposed to be back down to 125 for nationals. If he's can't hold the weight and you take him out of 125, it just gets weaker (outside of the one single most dominant wrestler at any weight, of course).
The old argument of strength of field when you have a super dominant king. Same thing happens in golf. People say that Tiger Woods couldn't dominate the way he did with the current depth of field. That argument is based on there not being a Tiger Woods right now. The greatest ones always make the field look week. No true great makes the field look strong.
I’m think 174 is right there with them. You have Starocci, Labriola and Lewis top 3. After that it’s Foca from Cornell, O’Malley from Drexel, Plott from Oklahoma St, Ethan Smith from Ohio St and Lautt from North Carolina. (Intermat rankings)
Not exactly a gauntlet to get through.
Not exactly a gauntlet to get through.
I mean Killian Cardinale is ranked #4 at 125. Killian Freakin' Cardinale.
125 is the weakest weight class and it's not particularly close, IMO.
125 is the weakest weight class and it's not particularly close, IMO.
Foca is a pretty good wrestler and very competitive at 174. He’s got 3 guys in front of him who he’ll have a hard time beating, but so would anyone else.
Cause I’m right. 174 is a weaker weight class. I know you don’t want to admit it because your guy is #1 and the narrative has always been 125 is weaker. Tell me about all the success of the guys I listed. You can’t.
174 has 2 returning NCAA champions (3 total titles). Definitely not a weak weight class.
Which weights are not relatively weak if you remove the top 3 guys? 165, 197, and 285 by my count.
Not many weights have multi AAs or former finalists ranked 4 or below.
I don't want to be that guy but let's stop arguing about 125 vs 157 vs 174 ... the weakest weight is clearly 141. I don't even think this is up for debate. According to Intermat (possible I miscounted) there is a total of 4 AA finishes in the field and 0 multi time AAs in the field. None of the wrestlers have previously finished Top 5 even at 141.
#1 has never AA'ed (Andrew Alirez)
#2 is a 1x AA (Woods, 6th 2022)
#3 is a 1x AA (Matthews, 5th 2022) He just lost to a guy who is 0-2 against PSU backups in his career (Jordan Titus)
#4 has never AA'ed (Ryan Jack)
#5 has never AA'ed (our own Beau Bartlett)
#6 has never AA'ed (Brock Hardy)
#7 has never AA'ed (Allan Hart)
#8 has never AA'ed (Frankie Tal-Shahar)
The only two AA's in the field is Clay Carlson and Jake Bergeland who have both lost 6 times already this year to ... you guessed it, all guys who have never AA'ed.
#1 has never AA'ed (Andrew Alirez)
#2 is a 1x AA (Woods, 6th 2022)
#3 is a 1x AA (Matthews, 5th 2022) He just lost to a guy who is 0-2 against PSU backups in his career (Jordan Titus)
#4 has never AA'ed (Ryan Jack)
#5 has never AA'ed (our own Beau Bartlett)
#6 has never AA'ed (Brock Hardy)
#7 has never AA'ed (Allan Hart)
#8 has never AA'ed (Frankie Tal-Shahar)
The only two AA's in the field is Clay Carlson and Jake Bergeland who have both lost 6 times already this year to ... you guessed it, all guys who have never AA'ed.
There is no one in the same galaxy as national champion Mekhi Lewis after Lee at 125 and you know that’s true. Don’t even try to deny it.
Anybody take notice that when Tiger positioned himself to win his last Masters the other great players wilted just like always. Depth of the field woukd not keep Tiger from giving himself the same opportunities, there would just as many guys choking on the pressure. Just like they did when Jack Nicklaus put himself into position to win.
People who make those statements are idiots.
LOL! If you have 2 returning champs in a weight class that makes it not weak? How many AA’s do you have after the top 3? The answer is 4.
#4 Foca 0
#5 O’Malley 0
#6 Plott 1
#7 Smith 1
#8 Lautt 1
#9 Romero 1
#10 Mocco 0
#11 O’Reilly 0
#12 Ruth 0
You have 3 titles and 8 total AA’s between Starocci, Lewis and Labriola
Let’s do 125. Total of 8 AA’s seasons.
#4 Cardinale 1
#5 Cronin 0
#6 McKee 2
#7 Barnett 2
#8 DeAugustino 1
#9 Courtney 2
#10 Heinselman 0
#11 Noto 0
#12 Peterson 0
Top 3 have 3 titles and 5 AA’s. Ramos is 3rd and this is his first year in the lineup.
125 has more depth which makes a tougher weight class just because Spencer makes it look easy doesn’t dismiss others accolades.
McSoreley proved 141 is actually the weakest
Not at all. I consider depth at a weight class to determine the difficulty. Not top heavy.
How about this? Harder to win a title, 174. Harder to AA, 125. You are right. It depends on the question.
Not sure a weight with 2 competitors who have won championships, along with 4 other kids who have AAed would be a weight class I would want to offer up as an example of weak.
To be honest, I believe attaching "weak" to any NCAA weight class is rather silly. There is no such thing as a "weak" NCAA weight class. There are some more brutal than others, but still.
I get what you are doing though. Spencer in a "weak" 125 pound weight class can cause a Hawk fan to get their panties in a bunch, and that's understandable.
If I were you I would just let that one go and enjoy the last few matches he has as a Hawk. No matter how many great ones come after him, you aren't going to have another Spencer.
Not sure a weight with a 3 time champ and 6 other kids who have AA’ed, including 4 who have multiple AA’s should be considered weak. And yes, I know you said no weight class is weak so it isn’t directed at you. However, everyone who reads this board knows there have been multiple comments about how weak 125 has been which insinuates Spencer has had an easier road to be a potential 4 timer. But the numbers show other weights have less wrestlers with the accomplishments that the competitors at 125 have.
174 to 125 are pretty similar and off the top of my head I probably agree with the conclusion below, that 125 is marginally tougher.
That said, former all Americans is a tricky metric, because it's more a measure of prior strength.
174 was a buzz saw the past few years where 125 was comparably weak the past 2. Not getting an AA over that group from last year (I've backed myself into a corner and can't list them now!) isnt a black mark.
Harder to AA in the past doesn't *necessarily* downgrade the weight in the current year. It's a factor, but I'd weight it less than you seem to be here.
A friend and myself talked to David Taylor this weekend. Very friendly and accommodating. Asked me where I was from, I said District 11 and he laughed. I mentioned I was from a neighboring town of where Desmond lives. He said he's very talented.
My friend asked if Levi would get his redshirt pulled. He said yes. He commented that the way the weight class is, Levi could make a run at winning it.
My friend asked if Levi would get his redshirt pulled. He said yes. He commented that the way the weight class is, Levi could make a run at winning it.
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Debating whether 125 is relatively weak is not a knock on Spencer (or shouldn't be). Anyone making that argument is trolling or stupid. Spencer is clearly the most dominant wrestler at any weight this year and will deserve the Hodge he gets (as long as he seals the deal, which he should).
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