What to root for for NY6 Bowl

[PSUinSTL]

Assuming we win out - how do we get to a NY6 Bowl.

Here are the teams in.
Big12/SEC in the Sugar
PAC/BIG in the Rose
P5 Champ
ACC champ in a NY6 Bowl (not guaranteed a bowl).

The SEC in the Sugar doesn't impact us (as there are 4 ahead of us)

As of now
Orange - Michigan/Clemson
Cotton - ND/Bama
Sugar - OU/Georgia
ROSE - OSU/WSU

UCF is guaranteed a spot (or somebody - so i'll just use UCF
That leaves 3 slots.
Right now - LSU/West Virginia/Florida/Syracuse are ahead of us. If we win out - really only Texas ISU can jump us.

What we need to happen is
-Texas/ISU in a sloppy/ugly game. I don't see a 3 loss ISU team jumping us - unless they dominate Texas. I think we have the edge over texas after we beat MD. Common opponent will come into play and that can help us. Ultimately - I don't see this game mattering unless 1 team dominates. -We should edge out both - but you never know.

-Syracuse Losing bad to ND would be good. We should jump them with a loss (common opponent).

-WVU losing to OK State would be huge. It would essentially guarantee they would be below us unless they swept OU - which isn't likely

-WVU losing twice - and Syracuse losing 1 time should get us in.

- Other things like Florida losing or LSU losing twice would obviously help us - but aren't that likely. Though if LSU lost ugly to aTm - that might be enough for us to jump them

Things that would be bad.
-WSU winning out and then losing the PAC12 title game. They might remain ahead of us - while another PAC team would get in as well.

-WVU/OU winning this weekend and then splitting - both would likely remain ahead of us

What absolutely CANNOT happen
-NW winning the conference - that would add another BIG team ahead of us
-WSU making the playoffs - that would guarantee 2 PAC teams in the NY6 games
-OSU/WVU making the playoffs - that would guarantee 2 BIG 12 teams in the NY6 games
-Pitt winning the ACC. This would give them an NY6 bowl - and Clemson wouldn't fall below us unless they lost the next 2. Also - Clemson not in the playoff hurts us by opening up the door to OU/WSU

What doesn't impact us
-the BIG making the playoff. If UM/OSU failed to make the playoff - as long as it was to another SEC team and not the BIG12/PAC.
- 2 SEC teams into the playoffs - if UGA/Bama both make the playoffs - LSU/Florida would take the Sugar and UM/OSU would fall into the atlarge bucket and rose

 

[psualum10]

Why would Wazzu making the playoffs guarantee 2 Pac-12 teams in the NY6 games? Theres no other team in that conference other than Washington State that would make a NY6 bowl. And if they're upset in the title game there's a strong chance they're out as well since everyone is waiting for them to Coog it up anyway. If WSU is in the playoffs, PAC-12 just wont have any other teams go to the NY6.

 

[PSUinSTL]

Why would Wazzu making the playoffs guarantee 2 Pac-12 teams in the NY6 games? Theres no other team in that conference other than Washington State that would make a NY6 bowl. And if they're upset in the title game there's a strong chance they're out as well since everyone is waiting for them to Coog it up anyway. If WSU is in the playoffs, PAC-12 just wont have any other teams go to the NY6.

1) The PAC 12 is guaranteed a team in the Rose Bowl. If WSU makes the playoff - a PAC team will be chosen to replace. See this link - https://www.quora.com/How-do-Rose-Bowl-teams-get-picked - so if they make the playoff - another team (washington/Utah would make the rose)

2) If they lose in the CCG - there is no guarantee they fall below us - and they could take an Atlarge bid that we need

The ideal scenario for us (in relation to WSU) - is for them to Lose to Arizona and then the PAC will only get one team in regardless. If Washington beats them - there is a slight chance they could jump us though not likely.