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WVU believes they have turned the corner.

The Spin Meister

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Gold Member
Nov 27, 2012
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An altered state
Suddenly have faith in the coach and his system. Means fans are excited and will be fired up for our game bigly.

We will need to get up early and silence the crowd. Can’t allow them to hang around late.

Should be a great game to attend.

 
Suddenly have faith in the coach and his system. Means fans are excited and will be fired up for our game bigly.

We will need to get up early and silence the crowd. Can’t allow them to hang around late.

Should be a great game to attend.

I have it on good faith that WVU is a terrible program with a terrible QB and we win by 50 - right Lando?
 
Suddenly have faith in the coach and his system. Means fans are excited and will be fired up for our game bigly.

We will need to get up early and silence the crowd. Can’t allow them to hang around late.

Should be a great game to attend.


Totally agree. We're walking into a hornet's nest there in Morgantown. They've got some good players and the atmosphere is going to be wild.

Meanwhile, our new coordinators are under pressure to produce big-time results right out of the gate.

I think this game is going to be closer than last year's and I'll be happy as a clam to get out of there with a W...close, ugly, whatever...any kind of W.
 
PSU has better players. They just have to get the momentum and get WVU on their heels. But if PSU makes mistakes and WVU get up early the crowd will be into it and PSU could tighten up.
 
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The noon start will tamp down the crowd a little. Jump on them early and they may stay down.
 
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Suddenly have faith in the coach and his system. Means fans are excited and will be fired up for our game bigly.

We will need to get up early and silence the crowd. Can’t allow them to hang around late.

Should be a great game to attend.

Glad it's at noon and not a night game. Allar needs to out play Greene (and he should) and we win fairly easily. If not then it will be closer than we want.
 
lol same shit we here every year when PSU plays Maryland. Lots of hype then an ass whipping. Penn State is 31-2 vrs them since 1970 and will be 32-2
 
Suddenly have faith in the coach and his system. Means fans are excited and will be fired up for our game bigly.

We will need to get up early and silence the crowd. Can’t allow them to hang around late.

Should be a great game to attend.

Well bully for them.
 
lol same shit we here every year when PSU plays Maryland. Lots of hype then an ass whipping. Penn State is 31-2 vrs them since 1970 and will be 32-2
Yupp. This isn't a competitive game on paper. If we played them 100 times we'd win 99 of them if not 100. People just want to pretend schools that are mediocre are legit opponents. In this era they're not.
 
Yupp. This isn't a competitive game on paper. If we played them 100 times we'd win 99 of them if not 100. People just want to pretend schools that are mediocre are legit opponents. In this era they're not.
I have a personal theory that I haven't checked out but if I did I think the data would back me up and that is the one reason that upsets are such a big deal in football is because they happen far more than people think they should and thus they seem amazing, thus making for more amazing things happening in football.

So if a team is a 20 point underdog, people think they have no chance to win when in reality their chance of winning is what...I don't know but maybe 5%? 3%? 2%? Whatever it is, it isn't like 0.01%, like people would probably guess it is. I mean, I'm talking in terms of what percentage of 20 point underdogs have won their games historically.

PSU opened as a 9.5 point favorite over WVU. What percentage of the time does a 9.5 point underdog win? I don't know but it's definitely more than 1 in 100. Each game is different but in lieu of having psychic powers to predict the future, I think using the pointspread is a decent proxy.
 
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Espn shows us -11.5 now.


Projected to win 6.5 here.


Athlon has them at #26, so I'd say they think 8-9 wins. Good breakdown of what they return, who they brought in, etc.
 
I have a personal theory that I haven't checked out but if I did I think the data would back me up and that is the one reason that upsets are such a big deal in football is because they happen far more than people think they should and thus they seem amazing, thus making for more amazing things happening in football.

So if a team is a 20 point underdog, people think they have no chance to win when in reality their chance of winning is what...I don't know but maybe 5%? 3%? 2%? Whatever it is, it isn't like 0.01%, like people would probably guess it is. I mean, I'm talking in terms of what percentage of 20 point underdogs have won their games historically.

PSU opened as a 9.5 point favorite over WVU. What percentage of the time does a 9.5 point underdog win? I don't know but it's definitely more than 1 in 100. Each game is different but in lieu of having psychic powers to predict the future, I think using the pointspread is a decent proxy.
It's not. The point spread is simply designed for betting purposes to try to balance the bets on "covering" not who is going to win. Penn State-WVU would go our way 99 times out 100. Just like OU-WVU last year. People are still thinking of college football as it was in the 80s and 90s. That is dead. In this era, the top programs will dominate even more.

People reference Purdue beating Ohio State in 2018 and 2011 as proof that's not true but the argument is they'd beat them 99 years out of 100. If Ohio State and Purdue played 100 times THOSE season they win 97-99 times. Just like we would against WVU.

WVU isn't on our level. We all know that. This should be a comfortable win. That doesn't mean 41-0. That means, even if the game is tied going into the 4th I'm not going to be worried. See the Indiana game thread last year.

A fluke can happen but WVU isn't an opponent that should have anyone worried.
 
Espn shows us -11.5 now.


Projected to win 6.5 here.


Athlon has them at #26, so I'd say they think 8-9 wins. Good breakdown of what they return, who they brought in, etc.
In the watered down Big XII any win total is possible for them. Arizona is the only other possible game on their schedule that it would be shocking if they won. Albany's the only guaranteed win. So put them at 1-1 and we'll see if they have the same luck they had last year. Smart money is betting against Neal Brown in 2024
 
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Espn shows us -11.5 now.


Projected to win 6.5 here.


Athlon has them at #26, so I'd say they think 8-9 wins. Good breakdown of what they return, who they brought in, etc.
That doesn't surprise me because 9.5 seemed a little low. But still, it's not rare for an 11.5 point underdog to win outright. I bet the pointspread ends up in the 13 to 14 range but underdogs of that magnitude win now and then too.
 
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lol same shit we here every year when PSU plays Maryland. Lots of hype then an ass whipping. Penn State is 31-2 vrs them since 1970 and will be 32-2
well, we haven't played WVU in Morgantown for quite some time so it isn't "same" by any standard.

And I don't know of anyone who is predicting a PSU loss in Morgantown. Most, like me, are simply saying that WVU is a good, bowl-bound, football team, and if PSU doesn't bring our A game, could win. This is exacerbated by it being the first game of the year, away, which means mistakes will be made. Lots of kids will be playing their first meaningful snaps with new offensive and defensive coordinators in a hostile environment.
 
well, we haven't played WVU in Morgantown for quite some time so it isn't "same" by any standard.

And I don't know of anyone who is predicting a PSU loss in Morgantown. Most, like me, are simply saying that WVU is a good, bowl-bound, football team, and if PSU doesn't bring our A game, could win. This is exacerbated by it being the first game of the year, away, which means mistakes will be made. Lots of kids will be playing their first meaningful snaps with new offensive and defensive coordinators in a hostile environment.
Being bowl bound doesn't make you a good team. You can be 5-7 playing in a bowl.

We bring our C+ game we find a way to win. Its WVU's opener as well with lots of kids playing their first "meaningful" snaps
 
We are talking about WVa who ended up 9-4 with a bowl win (we lost our bowl). If you don't believe that they are a dangerous, but beatable team, I don't know what to tell you. Phil Steel has WVU ranked 35th. This would make WVU the third most difficult game on our schedule (behind only tOSU and USC).
Bowl outcomes have no meaning. They're a scrimmages. We're an 11.5 point road favorite. It's not a challenging game.

And, yes, like most years we have 2 challenging games. WVU is ranked higher than some others because they play in a weaker conference. Put them in the Big Ten and Steele drops them 20+ spots. They would be in the top half of the Big Ten.

You said bowl bound = good, which is false
 
Bowl outcomes have no meaning. They're a scrimmages. We're an 11.5 point road favorite. It's not a challenging game.

And, yes, like most years we have 2 challenging games. WVU is ranked higher than some others because they play in a weaker conference. Put them in the Big Ten and Steele drops them 20+ spots. They would be in the top half of the Big Ten.

You said bowl bound = good, which is false

We have a lot more than two "challenging games" on this year's schedule...and West Virginia on the road to open the season is most definitely one of them.

Lando, this is your familiar poor-mouth-our-opponents act which sets the stage for you dismiss any win against a good team as insignificant and meaningless.

That said, you'll be happy to know that I have come around to your way of thinking about the non-playoff bowls.
 
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We have a lot more than two "challenging games" on this year's schedule...and West Virginia on the road to open the season is most definitely one of them.

Lando, this is your familiar poor-mouth-our-opponents act which sets the stage for you dismiss any win against a good team as insignificant and meaningless.

That said, you'll be happy to know that I have come around to your way of thinking about the non-playoff bowls.
Lando must be a Pitt fan. Only way to explain the irrational hate for Youngstown State….er……WVU.
 
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We have a lot more than two "challenging games" on this year's schedule...and West Virginia on the road to open the season is most definitely one of them.

Lando, this is your familiar poor-mouth-our-opponents act which sets the stage for you dismiss any win against a good team as insignificant and meaningless.

That said, you'll be happy to know that I have come around to your way of thinking about the non-playoff bowls.
You'll likely come around to my way of thinking on the rest to.
If we go 10-2 this year I'll be content but, to me, this is our easiest schedule in a while. I'm just not going to overhype beating WVU or most on our schedule. The playoff is a must this year and if we're concerned about WVU then we're a long ways from being a playoff team.
 
We have a lot more than two "challenging games" on this year's schedule...and West Virginia on the road to open the season is most definitely one of them.

Lando, this is your familiar poor-mouth-our-opponents act which sets the stage for you dismiss any win against a good team as insignificant and meaningless.

That said, you'll be happy to know that I have come around to your way of thinking about the non-playoff bowls.
Agreed and if we started with Kent or Bowling Green before playing WVU, I'd be a lot more comfortable. This is especially true with two new coordinators. The good news is we will have a kid at QB and two at RB who are now vets and should be able to provide leadership on offense. I am less concerned about defense but against a mobile QB, need to make sure we are disciplined.
 
Agreed and if we started with Kent or Bowling Green before playing WVU, I'd be a lot more comfortable. This is especially true with two new coordinators. The good news is we will have a kid at QB and two at RB who are now vets and should be able to provide leadership on offense. I am less concerned about defense but against a mobile QB, need to make sure we are disciplined.
Hep, I have more faith in Allen as DC. He will have the d ready to go day one.

The o is the big ? Is Coach K up to the task? Will the team learn his complex shifts and plays in time? Will Allar make the step up?

Speaking of Allar…..he had only one pic last season. Many think he was being over cautious and needs to open it up. Can he ‘open it up’ in the first game? Will say that in his very first start as a true freshman against Purdue he was quite good….so that gives me hope.
 
Hep, I have more faith in Allen as DC. He will have the d ready to go day one.

The o is the big ? Is Coach K up to the task? Will the team learn his complex shifts and plays in time? Will Allar make the step up?

Speaking of Allar…..he had only one pic last season. Many think he was being over cautious and needs to open it up. Can he ‘open it up’ in the first game? Will say that in his very first start a s a true freshman against Purdue he was quite good….so that gives me hope.
He and his WRs weren't on the same page last year. We had way too many plays where the WR wasn't where the QB thought he was going to be. I don't know if it was the WRs or the QB but it is clear CJF blamed it on the OC. From what I am seeing, coach K is going to use pre-snap motions to give the WR and QB less "at-snap" reads. As opposed to reading the D, we will make the D read us. We'll see.

Honestly, Drew Allar is the least concern I have on our offense with the exception of RB and TE.
 
He and his WRs weren't on the same page last year. We had way too many plays where the WR wasn't where the QB thought he was going to be. I don't know if it was the WRs or the QB but it is clear CJF blamed it on the OC. From what I am seeing, coach K is going to use pre-snap motions to give the WR and QB less "at-snap" reads. As opposed to reading the D, we will make the D read us. We'll see.

Honestly, Drew Allar is the least concern I have on our offense with the exception of RB and TE.
Yeah but all that pre snap shifting around can be pretty confusing for our team. Especially early on.

Even without it we often had guys lined up wrong and Allar was moving them around presnap. Burned timeouts. Got delay penalties.

And with all that presnap stuff is it more difficult to audible to a new play? Seems the guys would some trouble doing so.
 
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Yeah but all that ore snap shifting around can be pretty confusing for our team. Especially early on.

Even without it we often had guys lined up wrong and Allar was moving them around presnap. Burned timeouts. Got delay penalties.

And with all that presnap stuff is it more difficult to audible to a new play? Seems the guys would some trouble doing so.
I agree. But the team should be able to do better with pre-planned shifts rather than spur-of-the-moment, wink-and-nod shifts rather than having to make a snap-time decision based on if they think the OLB is blitzing or not.
 
Hep, I have more faith in Allen as DC. He will have the d ready to go day one.

The o is the big ? Is Coach K up to the task? Will the team learn his complex shifts and plays in time? Will Allar make the step up?

Speaking of Allar…..he had only one pic last season. Many think he was being over cautious and needs to open it up. Can he ‘open it up’ in the first game? Will say that in his very first start as a true freshman against Purdue he was quite good….so that gives me hope.

Allen will be fun as our DC. He's had what I would call "good defenses (for Indiana)". Generally, he never had a lot of high end talent. Depth (quality) was probably non-existent most years and limited. His defenses tended to get wore down and his offenses (outside of the Penix year) seldom stayed on the field/scored points enough to keep them rested/motivated.

A lot seem to think AK is coming here with the offense he ran at Kansas. I think we see something similar to what he ran at Buffalo. We're going to be a run first team. If the kids at every other school can learn his shifts and motions, ours should be fine.

Allar is going to be pivotal. You don't make the playoff without very good QB play. His ceiling is our ceiling.
 
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