2019 Phillies thread

[bmw199]

From the ESPN article:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26107902/what-sealed-bryce-harper-record-deal-phillies

"While opt-outs were discussed during the negotiations, Harper, in the end, said he didn't want one. If he was going to convince others to join him chasing championships in Philadelphia, players needed to know he wasn't going anywhere."

"And because the deal's average annual value is $25.4 million, it gets flexibility to spend more in coming offseasons and not run the risk of exceeding the luxury-tax threshold. In other words: Yes, an outfield with Harper and Philadelphia-area native Mike Trout is realistic."

So much for the we need to wait for Trout instead crowd.

 

[LundyPSU]

From the ESPN article:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26107902/what-sealed-bryce-harper-record-deal-phillies

"While opt-outs were discussed during the negotiations, Harper, in the end, said he didn't want one. If he was going to convince others to join him chasing championships in Philadelphia, players needed to know he wasn't going anywhere."

"And because the deal's average annual value is $25.4 million, it gets flexibility to spend more in coming offseasons and not run the risk of exceeding the luxury-tax threshold. In other words: Yes, an outfield with Harper and Philadelphia-area native Mike Trout is realistic."

So much for the we need to wait for Trout instead crowd.

Still need to upgrade pitching. I don't want Keuchel, as I don't think he is much of an upgrade over what they have (other than being a lefty). And if they sign him, at most it hast to be a 2 year deal.

 

[LundyPSU]

So this offseason, the Phils have added 3 players who were All Stars last season. Harper, Segura, and Realmuto. When is that last time any team has done that?

 

[jerot]

 

[aalion]

So this offseason, the Phils have added 3 players who were All Stars last season. Harper, Segura, and Realmuto. When is that last time any team has done that?

Pretty sure I read that it has never been done in the history of baseball (of course All Star games havent been around for the entire history of baseball but still...).

Who knows how it will all work out. But I am excited.

 

[mrtailgate]

Here is something that doesn’t mean squat but I found it interesting. If you talk to the biomechanics gurus they will tell you that The Babe understood and applied the concepts of momentum and leverage better than anyone in the history of baseball. He understood a lot of other concepts about the physics of hitting and even though his explanations were rudimentary they turned out to be correct. A lot of stuff that the biomechanics geeks didn’t discover until 50 years after his death.

Compliments of our old Phillies buddy Rick Schu, Rickey said if you impose Harper’s image over Ruth’s, they both were in the identical hitting position at point of impact. Ruth described his approach as having a “good pivot”, Harper almost looks like he is coming off the ground given his rotation.

 

[bwifan]

Harper isn’t half the hitter Howard was at the same age. Not even remotely close. What Harper does best is get walks, yet he still can’t hit for average and he’s a so-so fielder. Paying this guy this amount of money is sickening.

I’d love to know what Ruly Carpenter thinks about MLB these days. IIRC, he left baseball because of ridiculous salaries going to players who were better than Harper.

Ruly is kicking himself in the rear end for selling same way Norman Braman beats himself up daily for selling admittedly. No one saw the future and value of owning professional franchises.

 

[bwifan]

Phillies are just crushing it at the ticket office. Since the Harper deal was announced the numbers are staggering. They are still adding the totals up but if the guesstimates are correct what they are going to get back in ticket sales/concessions/parking/etc. will certainly help to pay for Harper

 

[bmw199]

Still need to upgrade pitching. I don't want Keuchel, as I don't think he is much of an upgrade over what they have (other than being a lefty). And if they sign him, at most it hast to be a 2 year deal.

Fantasy guys love Pivetta as a breakout candidate. GMs all wanted Eflin in any trade deal. I really like the odds of both being very good pitchers this year. Vince needs to go to the pen. Hopefully Eickhoff is healthy and can return to 2016 form.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

From the ESPN article:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26107902/what-sealed-bryce-harper-record-deal-phillies

"While opt-outs were discussed during the negotiations, Harper, in the end, said he didn't want one. If he was going to convince others to join him chasing championships in Philadelphia, players needed to know he wasn't going anywhere."

"And because the deal's average annual value is $25.4 million, it gets flexibility to spend more in coming offseasons and not run the risk of exceeding the luxury-tax threshold. In other words: Yes, an outfield with Harper and Philadelphia-area native Mike Trout is realistic."

So much for the we need to wait for Trout instead crowd.

If we get Trout, I might have to ignore my rule against adults buying team jerseys.

 

[EPC FAN]

Still need to upgrade pitching. I don't want Keuchel, as I don't think he is much of an upgrade over what they have (other than being a lefty). And if they sign him, at most it hast to be a 2 year deal.

The Phillies have already proven they can win it all with so so starting pitching. Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s Park. Scoring runs and relief pitching are the keys. Defense, which they’ve improved, too. They won with Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers, and Adam Eaton

 

[mrtailgate]

One last thing, and I mentioned it earlier in this thread saying that Ken Rosenthal had reported that the Phillies were short of $300 million until recently. Some are reporting and again I don’t believe it but the Phillies were said to still be under $300m (and a decent amount under) as of start of play YESTERDAY.

 

[bmw199]

If we get Trout, I might have to ignore my rule against adults buying team jerseys.

Jersey t-shirts are good at any age and look better than a baseball jersey on a fan.

 

[Lion84]

It does seem like a crazy amount of money - but then again it's not my money so who cares. There is no true salary cap in baseball just a luxury tax which can be expensive for the team but again it's money and if you make enough revenue who cares.

 

[mrtailgate]

Ruly is kicking himself in the rear end for selling same way Norman Braman beats himself up daily for selling admittedly. No one saw the future and value of owning professional franchises.

You got that right. Remember when people laughed at Laurie buying the Eagles at what, $185 million?

 

[mrtailgate]

I’d be curious what number Harper wears, assuming the Phillies will be planning on retiring 34.

 

[RU31trap]

I heard this on the radio this morning. Barring injuries and assuming Harper plays the entire 13 years in Philadelphia he will earn $43,500 for each at bat. A very interesting statistic.

 

[Delco Lion]

Hard to believe Rose was 38 when he joined the Phils. That guy still had it.

 

[aalion]

One last thing, and I mentioned it earlier in this thread saying that Ken Rosenthal had reported that the Phillies were short of $300 million until recently. Some are reporting and again I don’t believe it but the Phillies were said to still be under $300m (and a decent amount under) as of start of play YESTERDAY.

The same reporters were saying that the Nats had offered $300MM. The same reporters were saying the Phillies were in lead for Harper. Now the same reporters are saying they never bid $300 until yesterday. Those don't add up.

Sure seems to me like these guys are just trying to look slightly less foolish for being wrong every step of the way.

I am absolutely convinced none of these guys had any inside scoop at any point, other than being Boros stooges. Other than that they were guessing and playing whisper down the ally. One guy would ask a "source" (maybe another GM or something) about what the hold up is... would get an answer "I am not sure, guessing it is opt out clause". So the reporter reports "Sources say the opt out clause might be the holdup to getting a deal done". And the next guy reports "Harper wants an opt out"... etc. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

 

[Victor E. Bell]

Hard to believe Rose was 38 when he joined the Phils. That guy still had it.

Couldn't stand that cocky bastard when the Reds were dominant and sweeping the Phils in the 76 playoffs. That didn't last long when he put on the red stripes. This deal has the same feel to it as the Rose signing back then. Just looked at his playoff numbers with the Phillies in 80. .400 in the NLCS with .520 OBP. I'll say he still had it.

 

[sluggo72]

Couldn't stand that cocky bastard when the Reds were dominant and sweeping the Phils in the 76 playoffs. That didn't last long when he put on the red stripes. This deal has the same feel to it as the Rose signing back then. Just looked at his playoff numbers with the Phillies in 80. .400 in the NLCS with .520 OBP. I'll say he still had it.

I always felt Pete Rose made Mike Schmidt the player he became. I think Pete was the perfect sounding board for Mike.

 

[rudedude]

Haven’t been to a game in about 6 years. Going to two this year: Nats & Padres. Excitement again at CBP!

 

[Connorpozlee]

I always felt Pete Rose made Mike Schmidt the player he became. I think Pete was the perfect sounding board for Mike.

Rose took some attention off of Schmidt. Rose loved being the center of attention and handled it well.

 

[Obliviax]

man, great player but the phillies have to pray this guy doesn't get hurt. With no DH in the NL, even a minor but lingering issue takes him out of the lineup. Vegas increased the wins per season by four games. They calculated he will earn $47,000 per at bat, assuming he stays healthy until he is 39. Really an amazing contract by any consideration. This also further kills mid to small market teams. For example, the Mechado and Harper deals will elevate Lindor's impending free agency to an unreachable level. He'll be getting a similar deal for a much more profound defensive position (short stop) but is a lower quality batter (although will be a 30 HR/year player). No way anyone outside of the major teams will be able to afford to retain star players that draw fans on a day in and out basis.

 

[PSUcup1]

I always felt Pete Rose made Mike Schmidt the player he became. I think Pete was the perfect sounding board for Mike.

Schmidt has basically said this.

Also a few years back on Comcast they showed the series clincher against Houston. Phil’s are down and facing Ryan. Rose comes up and I said to my buddy who was with me “there was no way He wasn’t getting on base here “ after he drew a walk after fouling off multiple pitches

 

[Grant Green]

I do not believe the Giants were a real factor for one minute. Reports surfaced last weekend that a deal with the Phillies was pending post Middleton’s visit last weekend to Vegas. I think the deal had been set in principle then and Harper had agreed to it. The Giants dalliance was just a way to possibly get the Phillies to make some adjustments. The contract will be middle of the road by the time Trout is ready to sign. The contract for Trout may make Harper’s look like chump change.

I agree. I bet Boras was responsible for a ton of misinformation in this deal.

 

[bmw199]

man, great player but the phillies have to pray this guy doesn't get hurt. With no DH in the NL, even a minor but lingering issue takes him out of the lineup. Vegas increased the wins per season by four games. They calculated he will earn $47,000 per at bat, assuming he stays healthy until he is 39. Really an amazing contract by any consideration. This also further kills mid to small market teams. For example, the Mechado and Harper deals will elevate Lindor's impending free agency to an unreachable level. He'll be getting a similar deal for a much more profound defensive position (short stop) but is a lower quality batter (although will be a 30 HR/year player). No way anyone outside of the major teams will be able to afford to retain star players that draw fans on a day in and out basis.

What? Rockies and Padres are large market teams?

 

[Obliviax]

What? Rockies and Padres are large market teams?

Good point. I am often awed by the championship flags they fly during their games when on TV.

Sorry for the snark...my point being that they can drain the bank to sign one of these players but cannot sign the rest to win a championship. If the Indians signed Harper to this deal, he alone, would be 1/3rd of their payroll. And the Indians are considered one of the best managed teams in all of baseball.

 

[Ohio_Pirate]

Cincinnati gave Votto a huge 10 year $225 million contract extension 7 years ago. That was huge money back then - still is actually. Small market teams can definitely still pay, they just have no leeway to make a mistake. Larger teams can eat the contract and still contend.

Which by the way, Votto is going into his age 35 season and led the league in OBP last year despite having a down year. That contract is surprisingly holding up quite well.

 

[kgilbert78]

Word on the street here in DC is that the final sweetener to the contract which convinced Harper to sign was season tickets to Neshaminy High School football games.

Better than Tennent tickets (says this former Panther)....

 

[Obliviax]

Cincinnati gave Votto a huge 10 year $225 million contract extension 7 years ago. That was huge money back then - still is actually. Small market teams can definitely still pay, they just have no leeway to make a mistake. Larger teams can eat the contract and still contend.

Which by the way, Votto is going into his age 35 season and led the league in OBP last year despite having a down year. That contract is surprisingly holding up quite well.

Agree but Votto will not win or lose a championship on his own. The Reds also need to pay for five starters, a bullpen, 8 position players and backups (not to mention financing a minor league and staff). When they sign a "Votto", they have to underpay the rest of the staff. Net result is a team that sucks (AKA, the Cincinnati Reds). At one point, the Yankees had more international scouts than the rest of the league combined. This is how they have such a strong minor league that they use to get great players at trade deadline season every year.

 

[kgilbert78]

Again, it is pretty obvious that you don't know anything about Philly fans. Name me one player who was unfairly treated by Philly fans.

Eh, depends on what you mean by "unfairly treated". Phily fans are tough--and I'm from Philly and can say that. Not anywhere near as bad as national medial likes to make out though. They like and expect good effort--and good value for the tickets they buy. You can't dog it in Philly.

 

[Lefty Hill]

Cincinnati gave Votto a huge 10 year $225 million contract extension 7 years ago. That was huge money back then - still is actually. Small market teams can definitely still pay, they just have no leeway to make a mistake. Larger teams can eat the contract and still contend.

Which by the way, Votto is going into his age 35 season and led the league in OBP last year despite having a down year. That contract is surprisingly holding up quite well.

Check out Mike Schmidt’s age 36 and 37 seasons.

In fact, Schmidt was arguably better in his 30s than his 20s. Probably was, in fact.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Agree but Votto will not win or lose a championship on his own. The Reds also need to pay for five starters, a bullpen, 8 position players and backups (not to mention financing a minor league and staff). When they sign a "Votto", they have to underpay the rest of the staff. Net result is a team that sucks (AKA, the Cincinnati Reds). At one point, the Yankees had more international scouts than the rest of the league combined. This is how they have such a strong minor league that they use to get great players at trade deadline season every year.

I think that for small market teams to contend, they really need to have a core of young players, particularly pitchers, who they are paying on the cheap before they hit their big money contracts. For all the talk about the "moneyball" Oakland A's, the reason they were having good success is because they had cheap, highly effective pitchers. Barry Zito (7.1 WAR) making $295k, Mark Mulder (4.6 WAR) making $800k, and Tim Hudson (7.0 WAR) making $875k really helped that team be successful. Those guys made their money elsewhere.

 

[Obliviax]

I think that for small market teams to contend, they really need to have a core of young players, particularly pitchers, who they are paying on the cheap before they hit their big money contracts. For all the talk about the "moneyball" Oakland A's, the reason they were having good success is because they had cheap, highly effective pitchers. Barry Zito (7.1 WAR) making $295k, Mark Mulder (4.6 WAR) making $800k, and Tim Hudson (7.0 WAR) making $875k really helped that team be successful. Those guys made their money elsewhere.

That is the Indians....best rotation, 1-5, in the bigs. They have also had some awesome position players like Lindor and Ramirez (2nd and shortstop). They had their best outfielder, closer and setup man go to FA and lost them all. They also have a phenom center fielder but he blew his shoulder out and had surgery missing most of last season and part of this upcoming year. They just don't have the money to retain a full roster like the LA's and NY's of the world. Yep, once in a while everything comes together and you have a magical year....if it had not been for a rain delay, Tribe would have beaten the Cubs in game seven in 2016. In 2017, we went up two on the yankees only to lose three in a row starting with out best two pitchers back's tightening up. In 2018, the bullpen fell apart late in the year and our mid-season trade deadline addition got blood poisoning and almost died. Regardless, I agree....mid to small market teams have to get lucky and will probably always be on the yo-yo: one good year, seven rebuilding.

 

[PSUoh90]

 

[Obliviax]

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so BH basically took $150m for years age 30 to 39. ($189m/4 year offer versus $330m for 13 years).

Weren't some players calling collusion that this guy hadn't been signed yet; around the time camp started.

 

[EPC FAN]

It does seem like a crazy amount of money - but then again it's not my money so who cares. There is no true salary cap in baseball just a luxury tax which can be expensive for the team but again it's money and if you make enough revenue who cares.

I looked it up. Phillies payroll is $168M, now. That $50 less than Red Sox. There is a lot of money in baseball.

 

[bmw199]

I looked it up. Phillies payroll is $168M, now. That $50 less than Red Sox. There is a lot of money in baseball.

Projected 40 man is 188.

 

[bwifan]

View embedded media

Interesting all the 'information' floating around out there. I have heard several reporters and analysts say they have talked to people in the Dodgers organization and $45 million/year was absolutely never an offer on the table. Again looks like information being thrown around is not the most reliable as who to believe and what was truly rumors versus facts.