How do the other teams have this kind of success and then we look at our offensive out put.
Where is this team headed?
- Thread starter bdgan
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I think JS is guilty of some things but I'm not sure exactly what. I think a number of alleged victims exaggerated claims to get easy cash.
I think MM saw/heard something he found troubling but wasn't sure and didn't want to falsely accuse.
I think MM gave soft reports to his dad, Dranov, and university administrators. I don't think any of them interpreted it to be "sexual assault" and that's why they didn't respond more aggressively.
Unlike you I don't think there were several dozen people who knew JS was sexually assaulting kids and decided to keep quiet and allow it to continue.
That's fair. It's all opinion. I have little doubt most knew Sandusky was exactly what he was and didn't want anything to do with it because he was no longer a coach. You're giving people too much credit, especially men, for being willing to get involved in something like that especially knowing Paterno knew. Something like that is never kept completely secret. There's always whispers.
Call me confused. You are disputing the math or the base case assumptions (not the math)? Which is it?
Let's be clear about the math: Two games are played that are completely independent of each other. The probability of winning each game is 80%. Therefore the probability of winning both games is 64%. Is this math correct for the problem as stated? Yes or No?
They aren't independent of each other. See how the %s change weekly. All prior contests impact future games.
The math is not correct. Nor is the 80% that keeps getting thrown about. Both are above that. Rutgers is way above that.
certainly the outcome of the maryland game is independent of the outcome of the rutgers game. it comes first so there is no way to have a dependency. so you are saying that the outcome of the rutgers game depends on whether we win or lose to maryland two weeks earlier. i am not sure that is true in any meaningful way. it seems like they are basically independent
Actually this team is at the crossroads: it can continue to under achieve, or it can gain momentum like that 2016 team did after Minnesota, which that Indiana game bore a startling resemblance to. The game after that was Maryland and the game after that was Ohio State.
What is incorrect about the math? I think you are not distinguishing between what is an assumption (independence) and what is "the math."
If it is the assumption (that the events are actually dependent) then a different math applies, but that doesn't make the math incorrect if assuming independence. If they are dependent events then we need another piece of information.
Because the "math" has to account for the variables of the other outcomes until the games are played. You don't ever take two of the percentages (or all of the percentages) and just roll with them.
And I'm still questioning why you're not focused on 80% being wrong for both
Saying Maryland will get up for us is a hell of an assumption. Outside of the the 2020 debacle most of the recent games haven't been remotely competitive.
That said I can see us losing any of the remaining games outside of MSU.
To clarify, let's take football out of the discussion. If you're rolling a five sided die, with the goal of rolling anything other than a five, on two consecutive rolls, the probability of achieving that is 64%. Do you agree?
The question I asked has nothing to do with football. It's a basic probability question, one that all of us should know intuitively without even studying statistics. If we can't get past that then there is no point to looking at more complex scenarios.
Even the WVU game the offense played poorly. Scores were almost entirely off a couple of broken plays.
Defense is getting better and better though,
That is not what experts say at all. They also say there us evidence of child porn in possession/on computer of oediphiles. With Sandusky? None.
Stick to football.
Are we not talking about football? I'm discussing this scenario which you clearly don't comprehend or you're pretending not to.
You realize rolling dice has no variables, yes? or no?
His age is a huge factor on that. And, yes, experts agree men are less likely to act than women. That's not debatable.
It’s clearly not bad. The question is, given the schedule, how good is it really? I don’t mean that in a derogatory manner but more of a realistic one.
We’ll just throw out Delaware and UMass for obvious reasons. After those 2-
1. West Virginia, 5-3
-Houston and Oklahoma State scored 41 and 48 against them. PSU 38.
2. Illinois, 3-5
-Kansas scored 34, Purdue 44. PSU 30.
3. Iowa, 6-2
-MSU scored 16, Purdue and Utah St 14. PSU 31.
4. Northwestern, 4-4
-Duke scored 38, Minnesota 34. PSU 41.
5. Ohio State, 8-0
-Maryland scored 17. Notre Dame 14. PSU 12.
6. Indiana, 2-6
-Michigan scored 52, Maryland 44. PSU 33.
So far, the Iowa game seems to be the high point, far outperforming their other opponents. Indiana looks like the low point in comparison.
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This team is going to fail against its best opponents if the stars don't ramp up their level of play. Going into the season I was looking forward to watching Olu, Chop, Kaytron, Singleton and Abdul Carter. I am hard pressed to see where any of these guys have played up to expectations. The running backs have been pedestrian, Carter has not dictated play, and Olu, for all of the hype about being a top five pick, has given up pressures and has not been the focal point for an effective running game. Chop has been very good so far but overall the top talents have not been game changers.
Those numbers are deceiving. The offense stinks. Two top backs averaging less than 4 yards a pop and the WR room is broken.
How is the defense getting better when it gave up more points (24) than it had to any other team this season to maybe the worst team in the B10 last week?
More coverage lapses as well. The defense seemed to take the week off last week and who knows what will show up at MD.
The 12 vs OSU means more than the 32.1 ppg vs P5 opponents and the 38+ ppg overall.
You separated the math issue with your own language, as follows. This is what you wrote:
The math is not flawed because the 80% was presented as two independent outcomes for two independent events. Now you are free to claim that they are not independent, and that would be a fair assessment of reality. I would make the same argument if we throw in emotional factors. But that was not the basis for the original math as it was presented, which you claimed was flawed.
The assumptions might have been flawed, but not the math.
Good point and I would throw Kalen King into that mix. Any picks? Got abused by Harrison although yes Harrison is the best WR in the country but King is supposedly a first round pick so you gotta put up more of a fight than what he did. And he was mugging Harrison to get a penalty thus negating a scoop and score. He didn't look so hot vs Indiana either. Mich receivers will probably get open against him.
I get pretty confused when I see King playing so far off the WRs he covers. He is supposedly a 1st round draft pick and he plays soft man quite a bit.
I understand that he is doing what the scheme calls for, but I have a hard time also saying he got abused when he's playing the scheme. Any WR is going to catch a 3 yard hitch when the CB is 7 yards off the LoS AND back pedals at the snap.
Even Indianas big pass plays weren't against him. The 90 yarder was a switch off where Wheatley had his eyes on the QB. He also got blocked in the back (I think that should have made it a 30 yard gain instead of a TD). Then you have the Dixon corner blitz where nobody rotated over (somebody missed the call, not sure who though). And then the post where Hardy gets beat and Ellis hits him instead of the WR. Talk about a player who the talent just passed him by, Ellis went from taking snaps at CB as a true freshman to moved to safety and his time has dwindled ever since.
It is flawed math. You're not using constants. I shouldn't have needed to explain that
Huh? You're changing the basis again, which is changing the assumptions for the math as it was presented. The 80% were presented as constant probabilities, independent of each other. Again that might not be reality, surely it isn't, but that wasn't what was argued.
All good points. Who knows on the schemes but it makes no sense vs a team like Indiana not to have him in press coverage to take away the slant. Indiana probably does not have wideout who will even sniff an NFL team.
You reminded me of that push in the back on the 90 yard TD Indiana got. It was blatant. He was shoved just as he was going to tackle the guy and it was from behind. How is that missed, wasn't the ref there?
The positive side of me wants to say we were not motivated and Indiana got a couple fluke plays, take those away and it is like a 31-10 kind of game and I am not all up in arms like I am.
80% isn't a constant number and never was. Never one independent from the other. That's a false assumption that you must have made. It's also wrong but you keep ignoring that.
The thing about our team is that we have been an average offense with a defense that plays risky football. When a defense can load the box to stop the run and still not get burned by the pass, teams will play that way until you make them pay for it.
Indiana is the first team who benefit from the blown coverages. The Buckeyes didn't get anything easy off of us and that was with the benefit of our offense never putting them under any pressure.
I agree about King vs Indiana. Man up their best guy or take away one side. Make the QB throw perfect passes and or the WR beat King.
Aggressive fronts with soft man doesn't seem conducive to me. It's hoping that you get a sack, TFL, or a fumble vs an INT or PBU. It's acknowledging that passes will be caught, but daring them to do it for 8+ play drives. With Chop hurt, our CBs are our best unit. Rather be completely aggressive or go soft up front and let the secondary be the aggressive unit.
The team was definitely down vs IU. However, we have not came out sharp to open a game since WVU.
^^^^^
Tell us, how do you calculate the probability of winning both games? I want to be educated.
Interesting. If you are looking at trending, Rutgers is trending better than MD. Although MD is @ MD and has had a fairly recent victory against us.
I agree. Although Rutgers could be on a 2 game skid by the time they play us. Still, Iowa isn't guaranteed a win over them either.
Maryland perhaps still carrying the glow of a better start and typically finishing with a better record.
The Maryland QB will burn us if we are not smart about how we play in the secondary and with our anemic offense that could mean a very tight game if we allow them to get points. Obviously we cannot give points away like vs Indiana or we will probably lose.
I agree that our corners and certainly King should be in aggressive man coverage with their best WR. If he is who the experts say he is then he should not be getting burned. Also, MD is never that physical at the LOS so our D-Line should hold up okay with a blitzing LB thrown in there but we don't need to open the door for their QB to pick us apart because of soft coverage. Their QB can run and so can McCarthy so we will need the LBs to be aware of that and not simply be pinning their ears back for blitzes meanwhile the whole middle of the field is wide open.
These experts are not nearly as negative on the team as I am. LOL. I see us vs MD at about 67% probability for us to win. I hope we look great and it is a cakewalk but I don't think so.
Yeah, I'll be glad to once you explain why you keep saying 80% as I've asked you many times and you keep ignoring the first flaw in your claim
The numbers are irrelevant to me -- just those presented earlier in this thread. I want to know what you see as being wrong with multiplying probabilities.
Let's call the probability of winning Game 1 X and Game 2 Y. How do we calculate the probability of winning both games 1 and 2 in advance of both games?
