Where is this team headed?

[fastlax16]

interesting scenario: what if Franklin picks up wins but looks unimpressive (similar to Indiana game) vs. Maryland, Rutgers, and MSU, AND somehow pulls off a miracle and has the team run through a wall to beat Michigan. Then he is 11-1. are we back in the playoff mix in that scenario, or do the rankings keep us at a ceiling of 5/6?

We're in the mix at 11-1 but way too many games to say what the ceiling is.

If the big ten east 3 way tie happens then its going to come down to the tiebreaker of records amongst the west crossover opponents and good luck figuring that mess out this far in advance, both in terms of who will win and what the committee does with the two teams that don't.

If OSU wins out we're behind them but Michigan is out of the picture.
If UGA wins out we're behind them but bama is out of the picture.
If Bama wins out we're behind them and probably UGA, but beating Michigan would be a better win than anything on UGA's resume so maybe not?
FSU and/or Washington need to drop at least a game.
The Big 12 champ having 2 losses would be helpful

Too many variables.

 

[joeaubie21]

Why do posters insist on responding to HandonhisCommando aka PiT moron mbe34?

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Yes, and Indy was tied with PSU with under 2 minutes to play. The same Indy team that was soundly beaten by Rutgers 31-14 at home. Rutgers had no problem rushing for over 270 yds in that game.

Neither PSU or MD brings much momentum into this week's game. Missing Chop & Wallace won't help.

And Iowa beat whomever... Both ways ... These past these ream vs team vs other team game results and scores mean jack shit to upcoming game results. What a waste of cyberspace.

 

[LionFan87b]

80% is way too low for both of them. I'll have to see what FPI has but both should be close to 90--definitely above 80. And, no, that math isn't then 64%. You don't multiple them lol

If you're playing two games, and your probability of winning each one is 80%, then the probability of winning both is 64%. The math is .8 times .8.

 

[junior1]

Preseason predictions were for 9.5 wins and that still sounds realistic. Michigan State is the only team as weak as Indiana. We should beat Maryland and Rutgers but that won't happen if the offense plays like it did the last two weeks. IMO this team could go 4-0 but could just as easily go 2-2.

The running game is a mystery. The statistics are a head scratcher. PSU is 3rd in the BiG averaging 175 yds per game rushing but it certainly doesn't feel that way. Numbers for Singleton & Allen are down. How much were our rushing averages propped up by playing Delaware & UMass? Early opponents gave our WRs a cushion but not so with OSU & Indiana. They played a lot of cover 0 and cover 1 and dared PSU to beat them 10+ yds downfield. That strategy seems effective until we can become more effective in the passing game.

Allar's confidence isn't good. It would help a lot of he had WRs/TEs who could make plays for him but we haven't seen much of that. Now Harrison Wallace looks to be questionable. They only thing I can think of is to put Singleton in the slot but that doesn't seem to be part of the plan. The other thing is to play fast. On PSU's last drive Allar started with a quick pass to Allen. It was quick and didn't give Indiana defenders a lot of time to react. On the slower developing plays Allar seems to wait an extra half second to make sure the receivers have created some separation. It makes me think about Clifford in the Rose Bowl. I seriously don't know where that performance came from. Quick decisions with throws into tight windows where a second hesitation could have meant an INT. It took Clifford all of 6 years to gain that confidence so maybe we're expecting too much from 19 year old Allar.

Maryland could be a challenge.

• It's on the road
• MD is 3rd in BiG scoring, 2nd in BiG passing.
• I'm guessing Chop will be out again which means less pressure on Tua
• OSU/Ind have shown how to defend PSU
• Harrison Wallace might be out again.

It will be interesting.

is it possible that everyone has our offense figured out after 7 games? We don't have a vertical passing game so DBs are cheating up to cover short passes and the run. Indiana seeme to play a lot of cover 1 and on the snap the "1" often cheated up to help stop the run.
We need to change some things offensively IMO. Somebody needs to tell Yursich about the middle of the field and yursich needs to push allar to make decisions quicker. People are getting open but allar delays and allows the db to recover.

 

[joeaubie21]

Ignore Lando PLEASE.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Toward Boalsburg at about 15 mi an hour.

 

[Obliviax]

My take is that PSU came out really flat against Indy. We gave up 14 points to them, our defense that has been fantastic all year. That make Indy think they could win and that created a dogfight. You can't let bad teams into a game because they suddenly feel that this could be the signature win of their career. Second, we have a problem in the center of our OL. When the center or your OL can't pass block, you have a problem because you can't step up into the pocket. That puts pressure on the Tackles to not let the DE loop out around because the QB can't avoid that looping DE by stepping up. So he has to stop the loop and is now susceptible to the bull rush and stunts.

This also kills the zone-read run up the middle. Our RBs are getting no room up the middle and is a testament to them that we are getting 3 ~ 4 YPC when there is no hole.

MD is a gut-check game. They often fade late in the year but will get up for PSU. MD was putting together a good season and got mauled by tOSU. Since then they lost to Illinois and NW. Dang girl! So its gut check time for them as well. The first quarter will tell the tell.

 

[bvillebaron]

As poorly as most of us believe that the offense is designed and executed, they scored 31 points, which should be good enough to win every remaining game except Michigan with our defense. On Friday, I posted that I thought that we’d struggle to score in the 30s against IU, and actually thought to myself that we’d end up winning by something like 30-13.

With the above said, unless this offense has an Epiphany, they’re probably going to lose at least two more games, which would make this season a failure considering that the Big 10 overall is as down as it’s been in a long time.

PSU would have won by your predicted score or something like 31-6 if the defense showed up.

 

[bvillebaron]

And that’s what he said.

Because that’s how sports works IMO. You can get ready to play the next game and try to improve or you can listen to the armchair “experts” and feel sorry for yourselves.

 

[NoBareFeet]

Penn State was outplayed by Indiana, but thanks to a muffed punt, some missed FGs, and some questionable play calling, they were able to win the game.

If you watched the Illinois game, that game was pretty evenly matched. Penn State pulled away thanks more to Illinois' ineptitude than anything else.

The offense played well against WVU, but that is about it.

I think until they embrace who they are (a defense first team that should try and control the clock and manage the game on offense), the ceiling is low. A loss to Maryland would not surprise me in the least, unfortunately.

 

[Jerry]

interesting scenario: what if Franklin picks up wins but looks unimpressive (similar to Indiana game) vs. Maryland, Rutgers, and MSU, AND somehow pulls off a miracle and has the team run through a wall to beat Michigan. Then he is 11-1. are we back in the playoff mix in that scenario, or do the rankings keep us at a ceiling of 5/6?

If we were to win the rest of the regular season and then the tiebreakers to get us into the conference championship and then win that game...I think we'd have a decent shot at the playoffs.

A lot of ifs in that equation.

We'll likely be double-digit favorites in three of our four remaining games.

But we'll be an underdog at home against Michigan, and I'm having a hard time figuring out how we win that game with the O that showed up against Indiana...and Northwestern...and Illinois. I mean, statistically speaking, Michigan has one of the top D's in the country...on par with or better than Ohio State. Granted, they've played an absolutely pathetic schedule.

Then again, Michigan is dealing with some huge distractions. I'm guessing Harbaugh will try to turn the tables by telling his boys that the world is disrespecting them with claims their wins are only due to cheating.

Of course none of this matters if we don't take care of business this Saturday in College Park.

 

[KCLion]

Because that’s how sports works IMO. You can get ready to play the next game and try to improve or you can listen to the armchair “experts” and feel sorry for yourselves.

Your comment makes no sense - his whole last 20 lines (in the post to which you originally responded) was talking about being ready to play MD on the road.

 

[bcspsu]

Penn State was outplayed by Indiana, but thanks to a muffed punt, some missed FGs, and some questionable play calling, they were able to win the game.

If you watched the Illinois game, that game was pretty evenly matched. Penn State pulled away thanks more to Illinois' ineptitude than anything else.

The offense played well against WVU, but that is about it.

I think until they embrace who they are (a defense first team that should try and control the clock and manage the game on offense), the ceiling is low. A loss to Maryland would not surprise me in the least, unfortunately.

PSU also missed a FG and had a punt return for a td called back.

I'm not saying that PSU is better than Michigan, and Michigan did end up scoring over 50 points against IU. However, IU was beating them 7-0 at Michigan well into the second quarter.

I rewatched much of the game yesterday, and, except for the long td passes, which never should've happened, and the offense going to sleep after the td in the 3rd quarter, I thought that they played better than I initially thought.

In the end, the offense still scored 31 points, which should win every remaining game with our defense except probably Michigan .

 

[LandoComando]

If you're playing two games, and your probability of winning each one is 80%, then the probability of winning both is 64%. The math is .8 times .8.

No....not it's not.

 

[Obliviax]

PSU also missed a FG and had a punt return for a td called back. Also, IU only led one time in this game, 7-0.

I'm not saying that PSU is better than Michigan, and Michigan did end up scoring over 50 points against IU. However, IU was beating them 7-0 at Michigan well into the second quarter.

I rewatched much of the game yesterday, and, except for the long td passes, which never should've happened, and the offense going to sleep after the td in the 3rd quarter, I thought that they played better than I initially thought.

In the end, the offense still scored 31 points, which should win every remaining game with our defense except probably for Michigan .

Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong in the first half. That invigorated Indiana who was thinking that they could pull off the upset of the year in the B1G. So that created a dog fight.

I also see that we have a huge problem in the middle of our OL. That will be attacked every game until we show we've fixed it.

Let's hope our team doesn't sleep walk against MD like we did against Indy.

 

[bcspsu]

Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong in the first half. That invigorated Indiana who was thinking that they could pull off the upset of the year in the B1G. So that created a dog fight.

I also see that we have a huge problem in the middle of our OL. That will be attacked every game until we show we've fixed it.

Let's hope our team doesn't sleep walk against MD like we did against Indy.

My guess and hope is that you'll see a better and more intense performance against Maryland, which they definitely will need to win that game. It was so predictable that there was going to be a major letdown in the IU game. However, I hate to even say that because it belittles IU's performance, for which I give them credit. I know that they've given up a lot of points in their recent games, but at the the beginning of the season, even against OSU, their defense played very well and hard.

 

[LionFan87b]

No....not it's not.

See the example with the dice: https://byjus.com/jee/how-to-find-probability-of-two-events/

 

[KCLion]

See the example with the dice: https://byjus.com/jee/how-to-find-probability-of-two-events/

Do you believe that the teams are perfectly equal like fair dice are supposed to be?

 

[LionFan87b]

Do you believe that the teams are perfectly equal like fair dice are supposed to be?

The dice in that analogy don't represent two teams. Each die represents Penn State, but in a different game. Also, I don't believe we can know the probability of any team winning any game more than one game out on the schedule. But that's beside the point. This a hypothetical in which the probability of winning each game is 80%.

 

[bdgan]

Why's it doubtful?

Because we haven't heard a single coach or player say that they had any indication that Sandusky was abusing kids.

 

[LandoComando]

Because we haven't heard a single coach or player say that they had any indication that Sandusky was abusing kids.

Would you think they would if they had heard something?

 

[PSU Blue]

I highly doubt anyone on that Maryland team expects to win. If they do they shouldn't.

I do, and beat them well. Locksley is really paid to a) get them to any bowl and b) beat PSU. Simple as that, so they will be motivated.

 

[Obliviax]

My guess and hope is that you'll see a better and more intense performance against Maryland, which they definitely will need to win that game. It was so predictable that there was going to be a major letdown in the IU game. However, I hate to even say that because it belittles IU's performance, for which I give them credit. I know that they've given up a lot of points in their recent games, but at the the beginning of the season, even against OSU, their defense played very well and hard.

We've seen little from this team on the road. But I am hopeful, at some point, Allar just says "**** it" and comes out swinging. And someone needs to get into other player's faces from time to time. I feel like the offense doesn't have a leader. The better players, Olu/Allar/Singleton are all quiet people.

 

[lazydave841]

How bad are we going to miss Wallace?

15 receptions 161 yards. He's missed 2 3/4 of games already. I think his loss is the type that forces changes. We have to play other WRs now. He really was a stick mover vs WVU but no real success afterwards.

 

[bdgan]

Would you think they would if they had heard something?

Yes

 

[Obliviax]

I saw this posted and wanted to comment on it. It was a HORRIBLE drop at a key time in the game.

The play before, they showed Allar missing Warren who they said was open. But Warren was jogging on a crossing route with a defender a step behind. They said Allar didn't see him, open. And I was thinking BS. Warren was jogging with a defender in his back pocket. If you throw it to him and the defender is a S, he may well jump the ball in intercept it. Do you lead him by his slow gate or lead him more thinking he can accelerate to get to the ball? The problem is a 260 lb TE isn't likely to accelerate well. The next play and KLS simply dropped the ball. KLS is a good receiver so this is when I thought what could go wrong will go wrong kind of day. Nobody had their head on strait.

 

[81b&w]

Yes

I saw this posted and wanted to comment on it. It was a HORRIBLE drop at a key time in the game.

The play before, they showed Allar missing Warren who they said was open. But Warren was jogging on a crossing route with a defender a step behind. They said Allar didn't see him, open. And I was thinking BS. Warren was jogging with a defender in his back pocket. If you throw it to him and the defender is a S, he may well jump the ball in intercept it. Do you lead him by his slow gate or lead him more thinking he can accelerate to get to the ball? The problem is a 260 lb TE isn't likely to accelerate well. The next play and KLS simply dropped the ball. KLS is a good receiver so this is when I thought what could go wrong will go wrong kind of day. Nobody had their head on strait.

View embedded media

Watch the center on the play, unreal

 

[fairfaxlion2]

No....not it's not.

yes it is, unless you believe that the outcome of one game depends on the outcome of the other

 

[ryoder1]

PSU also missed a FG and had a punt return for a td called back.

I'm not saying that PSU is better than Michigan, and Michigan did end up scoring over 50 points against IU. However, IU was beating them 7-0 at Michigan well into the second quarter.

I rewatched much of the game yesterday, and, except for the long td passes, which never should've happened, and the offense going to sleep after the td in the 3rd quarter, I thought that they played better than I initially thought.

In the end, the offense still scored 31 points, which should win every remaining game with our defense except probably Michigan .

This MD game comes down to if our defense decides to let the MD QB look like his brother from the NC game a few years ago or actually dominate the Terp offense like they should.

Maryland is soft like they always are so we will be able to run on them which opens up the pass. We will get close to 30 points or a little more. So that means the D needs to just do it's job and we will get the W. If we have mental mistakes, crappy containment on their QB, poor tackling and lazy pass coverage like vs Indiana then we most likely will lose. The crowd will sense this is the first time since 1900 they could beat us and the Terps will gain confidence off that

 

[Obliviax]

This MD game comes down to if our defense decides to let the MD QB look like his brother from the NC game a few years ago or actually dominate the Terp offense like they should.

Maryland is soft like they always are so we will be able to run on them which opens up the pass. We will get close to 30 points or a little more. So that means the D needs to just do it's job and we will get the W. If we have mental mistakes, crappy containment on their QB, poor tackling and lazy pass coverage like vs Indiana then we most likely will lose. The crowd will sense this is the first time since 1900 they could beat us and the Terps will gain confidence off that

Our Center, Left Guard combo has been horrific the last two games. While MD is often soft, keep an eye on that.

 

[LionFan87b]

yes it is, unless you believe that the outcome of one game depends on the outcome of the other

Correct. The hypothetical scenario they were discussing was that each game had an 80% chance of us winning, not that the first one is 80% and the second one is TBD based, in part, on the outcome of the first one.

 

[ryoder1]

yes it is, unless you believe that the outcome of one game depends on the outcome of the other

I saw this posted and wanted to comment on it. It was a HORRIBLE drop at a key time in the game.

The play before, they showed Allar missing Warren who they said was open. But Warren was jogging on a crossing route with a defender a step behind. They said Allar didn't see him, open. And I was thinking BS. Warren was jogging with a defender in his back pocket. If you throw it to him and the defender is a S, he may well jump the ball in intercept it. Do you lead him by his slow gate or lead him more thinking he can accelerate to get to the ball? The problem is a 260 lb TE isn't likely to accelerate well. The next play and KLS simply dropped the ball. KLS is a good receiver so this is when I thought what could go wrong will go wrong kind of day. Nobody had their head on strait.

View embedded media

This is an excellent point. Our offense is so pedestrian that we cannot afford drops like this. Thankfully KLS was able to catch the bomb at the end of the game. What we don't see which you point out are our WRs and TEs running bad/sloppy routes. Usually the resulting incompletion gets blamed on the QB.

 

[LandoComando]

Yes

Why?

 

[bdgan]

Why?

You're saying that you would have kept your mouth shut if you were a PSU coach that had knowledge that JS was sexually assaulting kids?

 

[LandoComando]

You're saying that you would have kept your mouth shut if you were a PSU coach that had knowledge that JS was sexually assaulting kids?

I'm saying most coaches would have because they're not getting involved when they're told it's being handled.
You're coming across as someone who believes Sandusky is innocent. He wasn't and many knew--many could have done more.

 

[bdgan]

I'm saying most coaches would have because they're not getting involved when they're told it's being handled.
You're coming across as someone who believes Sandusky is innocent. He wasn't and many knew--many could have done more.

• I don't think JS is innocent.
• I also don't believe that most coaches and players knew what was going on and decided to keep quiet.

You say many knew. Give me a few names.

 

[LandoComando]

• I don't think JS is innocent.
• I also don't believe that most coaches and players knew what was going on and decided to keep quiet.

You say many knew. Give me a few names.

Cool--we agree Sandusky is guilty
If Mike McQueary knew what makes you think others didn't? We all know how rumors get around. It's almost impossible that no one knew. They were likely under the belief that it would be handled.
Men, in particular, don't get involved in these situations as they don't want tied to it. It's not at all surprising that many that heard said nothing. And no one is going to admit know that they heard anything. They're not stupid.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Correct. The hypothetical scenario they were discussing was that each game had an 80% chance of us winning, not that the first one is 80% and the second one is TBD based, in part, on the outcome of the first one.

Just what I was thinking. One possibility was that Lando went to Pitt and doesn't understand statistics. The other was that we are talking about a Franklin-coached team that performs largely dependent on how they felt after the results of the previous game.

 

[LandoComando]

Just what I was thinking. One possibility was that Lando went to Pitt and doesn't understand statistics. The other was that we are talking about a Franklin-coached team that performs largely dependent on how they felt after the results of the previous game.

Northwestern after Penn State. I'm still dumbfounded by the idea that people aren't questioning the 80% for both which is false...as is the flawed math.