2021 Recruiting Class Thread
- Thread starter Statewise
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Fact or Fiction: Penn State is hurting Wolverines in Michigan
https://n.rivals.com/news/fact-or-fiction-penn-state-is-hurting-wolverines-in-michigan
https://n.rivals.com/news/fact-or-fiction-penn-state-is-hurting-wolverines-in-michigan
https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...offense-nittany-lions-rucci-tengwall-veilleux
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: OFFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 14, 2020 at 9:05 am
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: OFFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 14, 2020 at 9:05 am
https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...offense-nittany-lions-rucci-tengwall-veilleux
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: OFFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 14, 2020 at 9:05 am
While I think we're right there for a lot of these prospects, these predictions seem a bit too optimistic.
Fitz just CBed Jeffrey Davis to Penn State
Yes, it does seem very optimistic. But then again CJF has been on almost every one of the predicted players for a very long time and he seems to be right there for every one of them. The OL targets have been known and offered for a long time, and the same goes for a good many top targets at WR. And those are are the top priorities for this class it seems. Other than getting 1 top QB. And CJF and his staff have been all over their top QB targets as well. Seems like just 1 TE, and they have offered a number of talented TE's and look bound to get a good one.
Great that some top targets are beginning to commit, but it's a long road until the December signing day and some of these top players will drag their decisions out until next February.........
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Who do you think we don’t get?
Leigh is the only one I’d bet against at this point
Individually, I don't really see any of those kids -- other than Leigh -- as being a longshot. But a bunch of them are kids we'll have to battle big programs to land.
Georgia really wants Brock Bowers, for example. Bralon Brown is a Florida kid being heavily recruited by Lane Kiffin. Veilleux has a Clemson offer which can never be discounted. Nothing really suggests that we lead for Kiner. We look to be in good shape with Thornton, but he definitely has options. And so on.
The chances of getting any of those kids individually is pretty good. The chances of getting all of them? That seems optimistic.
That’s not how probabilities work. Each kid makes their own decision. So if you think the chance of getting a kid is pretty good or better than anyone else’s chances, you put him in your projected class
I understand that.
If you think we have a 51% chance of landing kid X, a 75% chance of landing kid Y, and a 66% chance of landing kid Z, then by all means put all of them in your projected class.
I'm just saying that on the aggregate, I'd be surprised if our offensive class is that loaded. There are a lot of 50/50 type races in there.......they won't all go our way.
I don't think it's an unreasonable projection. But definitely leans to the optimistic side.
What you are describing is called compound probability. So you just multiply individual probability to get the compound probability.
So in your example, you just multiply 51% x 75% x 66% and the compound probability of landing all 3 of kid X, kid Y, and kid Z is 27%.
So you are completely correct that the chances of landing everyone projected goes down as an aggregate.
So in your example, you just multiply 51% x 75% x 66% and the compound probability of landing all 3 of kid X, kid Y, and kid Z is 27%.
So you are completely correct that the chances of landing everyone projected goes down as an aggregate.
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Right, but how do you change your predictions on a player that you think we’re going to get? Then it no longer becomes an accurate picture of how you think each players recruitment will end up
Im no math whiz, but doesn't that really only work if you think that one kids decision has a direct impact on the others?
(not that this really matters w/ regards to the class of 2021 recruiting class lol)
https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...offense-nittany-lions-rucci-tengwall-veilleux
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: OFFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 14, 2020 at 9:05 am
Rucci looks like he is about 12 years old and 200lbs … which IMO, is great in that he most likely hasn't come anywhere close to reaching his peak from a physical maturity standpoint
as opposed to a kid like Tengwall, who looked a like an NFL lineman at 15
I'm not making a prediction about any player.
I'm making a prediction about how many primary targets we're likely to get in this class on offense.
The RLR prediction gives us virtually all of our top targets minus Caleb Williams and Donovan Edwards. That would be fantastic. However, it's also very unlikely. And that's fine. It's a harmless prediction.
That's my only opinion here.
Good size at 6'2, 195. And he also wrestles -- 51-6 record in HS. Penn State, Pitt, ND, and Oklahoma listed as "warm", but he's picking up a lot of offers lately, to include LSU and Miami.
With Reed and Wheatley already in the fold and presumably a spot open for Davis, it'll be interesting to see how hard we recruit him.
Lets see how "optimistic" you gentlemen (you too Glov! Just kidding.... 
) see this as........
https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...-nittany-lions-derrick-davis-gilliam-goodwine
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: DEFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 15, 2020 at 8:00 am
) see this as........https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...-nittany-lions-derrick-davis-gilliam-goodwine
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: DEFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 15, 2020 at 8:00 am
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An example would be what is the probability of flipping a coin and getting 2 heads in a row. Individually, it is 50%. But together, it would 50% x 50%. So it would be a 25% chance of getting both coins to be heads. Because your possibilities are Heads/Tails, Tails/Heads, Tails/Tails, Heads/Heads.
Each coin flip would be independent events and shouldn't impact each other.
Each coin flip would be independent events and shouldn't impact each other.
Lets see how "optimistic" you gentlemen see this as........
https://www.roarlionsroar.com/penn-...-nittany-lions-derrick-davis-gilliam-goodwine
PREDICTING PENN STATE FOOTBALL'S 2021 RECRUITING CLASS: DEFENSE
By RLR Staff on April 15, 2020 at 8:00 am
Nothing wrong with being optimistic. In fact, their defensive predictions seem a bit less "we're getting everybody!" than their offensive predictions.
However, they have us landing Goodwine even though he just released his top 5 and we're not in it.
Their defensive predictions seem more realistic to me.
Goodwine - surprising to most - DID include PSU in his top 5. It's perceived that he wants to play in the SEC, but maybe the staff can convince his family playing closer to home has it's benefits too.
You’re right. Was thinking Elijah Jeudy.
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Ranking the Contenders: Elliot Donald
2. PENN STATE
The Nittany Lions would love to add Donald to their defensive line and they usually have success signing prospects from Pittsburgh, but prying Donald away from the Panthers could prove to be difficult. James Franklin and his staff have hosted Donald a few times and he’s enjoyed his time at Penn State, but there is still work to be done. Keep an eye out to see if and when Donald returns to Penn State for a visit this fall.
https://n.rivals.com/news/ranking-the-contenders-elliot-donald
2. PENN STATE
The Nittany Lions would love to add Donald to their defensive line and they usually have success signing prospects from Pittsburgh, but prying Donald away from the Panthers could prove to be difficult. James Franklin and his staff have hosted Donald a few times and he’s enjoyed his time at Penn State, but there is still work to be done. Keep an eye out to see if and when Donald returns to Penn State for a visit this fall.
https://n.rivals.com/news/ranking-the-contenders-elliot-donald
Christian Veilleux CB’s to PSU!!!
Wiltfong and Dohn today, eh? Wiltfong also CB'ed Jeff Davis to us today.
Don't know if there's any chatter driving it, or if they're going through and CB'ing some of the kids who haven't gotten CBs yet.
He would be a good get.
Is he wearing a PSU jersey in his profile pic? Yeah, I’d say he’s ours.
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