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2025 NCAA Tournament By The Numbers

wrestleknownothing

Well-Known Member
Aug 30, 2024
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65 teams, 330 wrestlers, 80 All-Americans, 10 Champions, and 1 Most Outstanding Wrestler.

I am getting tingly all over.

Oh, yeah. And a team title. Let’s just get the team race out of the way right away.

The Highlander - There Can Be Only One

It is Penn State’s to lose…..again. Boring. Well not for me. Or for you guys. But for some.

What is not boring is the race for second. Wow, did that heat up.

With Iowa’s seed average (9.6) much lower than their ranking average (6.7) going into the conference tournament, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska are firmly in the conversation for second. Feels kinda Thunderdome-y to me. Three men enter, one man leaves.

But do not count Virginia Tech, and Minnesota out as serious podium contenders. Northern Iowa, Cornell, and Illinois may be long shots, but don’t you dare try telling our muse @ILLINIWrestlingBlog that. Rest in Peace, buddy. Just don’t do it on that great big mat in the sky or we will send Jombo up to call the stall in all his ham and vinegar fueled wrath.

Here is hoping your beloved Illini do the deed.

image.png.91cb3547b0009e0698b47984d19ab7fb.png

Author’s Note: For the long-time readers in the crowd you know that I come up with these point projections based on how the average wrestler at each seed performs. Well, here is the thing about PSU, they just don’t do average. For example, based on average expectations last year they were projected to score 145 points. And we know what happened. So, yeah, 155.7 this year is more. If you throw in the PSU bump relative to the average, they project out to something like 183. Yep.

Lou Gehrig Award

Who is this year’s Iron Horse? How appropriate that our warrior is a soldier.

Army’s Brady Colbert leads all entrants with 36 wins on the season among his total of 43 matches. The man is a thrown back. And if you aren’t careful, he will throw you to your back. Our hero had 10 pinfalls among his 36 wins. With Wyatt Pinfalldrickson flying into the sunset at the end of the tournament, perhaps we have a new American Hero in the Black Knight freshman.

Is he The One Who Was Promised?

image.png.2e91b7626135ddbc76447ccf8365b91d.png

The Harlem Globetrotters Award

The Globetrotters have won 27,000 games. You read that right. They will beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. And Campbell shares that ethos. If Campbell is going out this year, they are doing it in style. The Fighting Camels have the highest average matches contested among their entered wrestlers.

image.png.7d20fe5cf28d48a2c90fa07734d3d531.png

The Outliers

I am not sure what to make of this but there are more wrestlers with sub-0.500 records than with perfect records. Go figure. Call them "The Chip And A Chair Crowd".

image.png.8f9ac64e43e0ecdb6ac92d25042a26e3.png
 
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65 teams, 330 wrestlers, 80 All-Americans, 10 Champions, and 1 Most Outstanding Wrestler.

I am getting tingly all over.

Oh, yeah. And a team title. Let’s just get the team race out of the way right away.

The Highlander - There Can Be Only One

It is Penn State’s to lose…..again. Boring. Well not for me. Or for you guys. But for some.

What is not boring is the race for second. Wow, did that heat up.

With Iowa’s seed average (9.6) much lower than their ranking average (6.7) going into the conference tournament, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska are firmly in the conversation for second. Feels kinda Thunderdome-y to me. Three men enter, one man leaves.

But do not count Virginia Tech, and Minnesota out as serious podium contenders. Northern Iowa, Cornell, and Illinois may be long shots, but don’t you dare try telling our muse @ILLINIWrestlingBlog that. Rest in Peace, buddy. Just don’t do it on that great big mat in the sky or we will send Jombo up to call the stall in all his ham and vinegar fueled wrath.

Here is hoping your beloved Illini do the deed.

image.png.91cb3547b0009e0698b47984d19ab7fb.png

Author’s Note: For the long-time readers in the crowd you know that I come up with these point projections based on how the average wrestler at each seed performs. Well, here is the thing about PSU, they just don’t do average. For example, based on average expectations last year they were projected to score 145 points. And we know what happened. So, yeah, 155.7 this year is more. If you throw in the PSU bump relative to the average, they project out to something like 183. Yep.

Lou Gehrig Award

Who is this year’s Iron Horse? How appropriate that our warrior is a soldier.

Army’s Brady Colbert leads all entrants with 36 wins on the season among his total of 43 matches. The man is a thrown back. And if you aren’t careful, he will throw you to your back. Our hero had 10 pinfalls among his 36 wins. With Wyatt Pinfalldrickson flying into the sunset at the end of the tournament, perhaps we have a new American Hero in the Black Knight freshman.

Is he The One Who Was Promised?

image.png.2e91b7626135ddbc76447ccf8365b91d.png

The Harlem Globetrotters Award

The Globetrotters have won 27,000 games. You read that right. They will beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. And Campbell shares that ethos. If Campbell is going out this year, they are doing it in style. The Fighting Camels have the highest average matches contested among their entered wrestlers.

image.png.7d20fe5cf28d48a2c90fa07734d3d531.png

The Outliers

I am not sure what to make of this but there are more wrestlers with sub-0.500 records than with perfect records. Go figure. Call them "The Chip And A Chair Crowd".

image.png.8f9ac64e43e0ecdb6ac92d25042a26e3.png
Dammit, you got it dusty over here talking about Greg. Man, I wish he coulda hung on through this postseason!

Also, another terrific job; thanks for all the great data & analysis.
 
Dammit, you got it dusty over here talking about Greg. Man, I wish he coulda hung on through this postseason!

Also, another terrific job; thanks for all the great data & analysis.
In my seats at B1G I was surrounded by Illini fans. It made me think of him constantly. And I think I met his heir apparent. There was a ~10 year old kid who was living an dying with every Illinois match. And he was doing it loudly. It was fun to see.
 
More fun with crayons

Last 10 Years
At Least 40 Wrestlers Qualified
Sorted by Frequency of Underperforming Seed

Red = Worse Than Seed
Green = Better Than Seed
Grey = At Seed

Almost 20% better than Iowa and and Nebraska is a substantial difference. It is surprising to see ASU finishing at worse than seed over half of the time and Missouri and NCST at nearly 60%. Thanks!
 
Almost 20% better than Iowa and and Nebraska is a substantial difference. It is surprising to see ASU finishing at worse than seed over half of the time and Missouri and NCST at nearly 60%. Thanks!
It went pretty unnoticed last year just how bad a tournament NC State had. It may have been the worst tournament any team has ever had. My expected points had them alone in second, well ahead of third. Instead they finished tied for 11th.

EDIT: I just looked it up. NC State was expected to score 94.1 points. They scored 49.5. Nine of ten wrestlers missed their expected points total and the tenth (Trent Hidlay) beat it by 2.7. Only 1 wrestler beat his seed and it was only because he was the #29 seed and won 1 match to go out in the round of 24 instead of the round of 32/33.
 
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Listed below is the top 15 single season NCAA tourney scores (points adjusted for current scoring) during the Cael Era. Let's see who will be added this season.

ofwbSVg.png
 
Listed below is the top 15 single season NCAA tourney scores (points adjusted for current scoring) during the Cael Era. Let's see who will be added this season.

ofwbSVg.png
PSU has five wrestlers with their names on this list twice, yet the most dominant wrestler of all time appears only ONCE - and tied at fifth place!

Please double check your math, or better yet, have andrege rerun those numbers. @IRONBIRD
 
More fun with crayons

Last 10 Years
At Least 40 Wrestlers Qualified
Sorted by Frequency of Underperforming Seed

Red = Worse Than Seed
Green = Better Than Seed
Grey = At Seed


This is such a telling graphic to show how Cael has his wrestlers peaking when it matters most. All the more impressive that Penn State tends to get great seeds and still meet and exceed. Like mcpat said, awesome graphic!
 
This one you might not like as much since I built it from averages for the field.



I am guessing there are a few here who would take the over on 2.7 champions.

P.S. using PSU derived probabilities the number is ~4.5. So you have to decide if this team is like those teams.

So it will end up looking more like this:
our-solar-system.jpg
 
This one you might not like as much since I built it from averages for the field.



I am guessing there are a few here who would take the over on 2.7 champions.

P.S. using PSU derived probabilities the number is ~4.5. So you have to decide if this team is like those teams.

Btw, great work with adding in school colors. That takes some time.

It's interesting the AJ effect on Bakersfield where they have almost as good of odds for a champion as anOSU.
 
Manning says these graphs/tables/lists are misleading without being adjusted for all the Bubba Wilson points that Cael & Carter screwed him out of. Says they’re not a true representation of the facts. While talking about true representations I mentioned his social media profile pic from the mid 80s and then him, his assts, a trainer, and like 15 other guys started yelling at me
 
Manning says these graphs/tables/lists are misleading without being adjusted for all the Bubba Wilson points that Cael & Carter screwed him out of. Says they’re not a true representation of the facts. While talking about true representations I mentioned his social media profile pic from the mid 80s and then him, his assts, a trainer, and like 15 other guys started yelling at me
My dad taught me a few things. Figures never lie, but liars always figure. And torture the numbers until they talk.
 
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