One semester off absolutely makes a difference. If he isn't with his next program for winter semester, he isn't going to be with the team until sometime in the summer. That means no spring practice as well limited time, particularly on field, with his new coaching staff and teammates until the start of practice in August. That would undoubtedly reduce his chances of starting next fall with any program that isn't in the dumpster fire category. Since his decision to transfer is clearly a product of him having no path to start next year at PSU with Allar's return, any decision he makes that would reduce his chances to start next at another program year goes against the very reason he entered the portal in the first place. If a real chance to start next year and, probably, the year after wasn't more important to him that being a back-up on a playoff or even championship team, he wouldn't be in the portal and we wouldn't be having this discussion.