Simple: if you don't start, you have 0% chance of reaching your goals.I'll just say Facundo's freestyle chops don't seem to be suffering in State College.
My biggest issue is with the position that if young men don't make the starting lineup at some point, they will transfer. There are (at least) two flaws with this. One, most of these guys' goal is to become NCAA or Olympic champs. If you can't beat another guy in the room, why would you think it's more likely to come out ahead of him by going to another school? It's more likely they stay in the room, try to get better and win the spot. It's one thing if it becomes clear you're not a D1 wrestler. Then, fine, transfer to a D2 or D3 school. Two, most of the guys are smart enough to know they will reach their top potential in the best room in the country, not in a lesser room. It's a different story after someone graduates and is looking at graduate programs.
If you leave, there is a non-zero chance of somebody else beating your former teammate at NCAAs so you don't have to.
Dean finished 7th the year Beard left. Beard lost in the blood round, so he didn't live up to his end of the equation. But the decision to leave, start elsewhere, and let someone else beat Dean proved correct for him.
Doesn't mean it's the right choice for everyone -- only that it's a clear, obvious, straight-forward basis for such a decision.