B1G Expansion
- Thread starter NedFromYork
- Start date
It doesn't matter that SEC "supposedly' wants UVA; it's what the school and its alumni want. What's happening is 100% about "elite programs" with fan bases and administrations willing and able to make the commitment ($$$) to facilities and NILs. UVA isn't doing that, at least not for football. I suspect there will be other schools that will decide they don't want to part of what top-level CFB is going to become.
What's happening is very similar to what happened during the CFA era when D1 split into 1A and 1AA several years ago. It was about school commitment/capacity and money then, and it's about that now. Schools that couldn't or wouldn't do what was necessary to play with the big boys were left to play against each other in smaller venues with less or no TV revenue. Some schools were left out of D1A despite wanting in. It will be much the same this time. You'll have a top level of less than 50 schools, a level composed of non-P5 schools and P5 schools that can't or won't make the cut for the top level, and the rest will fall out in FCS, D2, and D3 as they do now.
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So when do the Ivies opt back in? Seriously, not every school is going to be interested in becoming host to a minor league football team that has little to do with the rest of the school other than the name. The money that comes in will go right back into the athletic department just like it does now, and much of that will go to feeding the football program. What exactly will a school that is highly selective in its admissions, has little to no need to market itself via athletics, doesn't have an alumni or subway alumni base that demands a strong football program, and has no difficulty raising funds for what it cares about - its academics and academic reputation, get from this new arrangement? The answer is money that will then be spent on nothing other than maintaining top level athletics. If maintaining top level athletics isn't a priority in and of itself, what's the point?
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Well, so far ND has. They're making a fraction of the money they could be making in the SEC or Big Ten and that's done nothing to move the needle for them.
Patience--they'll make the move sooner than later
The Ivies wouldn't be invited. Academics are irrelevant--this has been a business for a long and they're finally starting to fully acknowledge that.
I honestly believe so people just don't want to accept the change that they're seeing in front of them. Using your logic Northwestern and Vanderbilt are going to leave the Big Ten and SEC while Stanford won't ask to be a member of the Big Ten. It's delusional. Money drives everything.
I totally generally with your first paragraph. Where we part is on whether or not every school will want to go where the top tier of college is going. For you, every school currently in FBS is ready to go all in because the money is too good. The idea that they might not want to be part of the change because it's just not where the school wants to go is just not imaginable to you. The money that will come in come in won't go anywhere accept right back into the athletic department. It's not like the schools will use football money to fund academics. (I'm amazed how many people actually think that income from tickets and television deals goes to anything but sports.) It's a bit ironic that while you talk about people not seeing the change you don't seem to understand how much it will change at the individual programs. The conference realignment is one thing, but for the individual schools what is happening requires a major transformation of how they operate and how the school treats its AD. As for NW and Vandy, I don't know if they will be in it for the long haul. Neither would ever get invited into a big conference today, and they and they may well decide that they just don't care enough about football to stay in the business that it is becoming.
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Yeah, that's fine. We're not on the same page.. Time will prove which our of views is right on this.
Neither NW or Vandy would leave on their own. They would have to be kicked out. They are raking in a lot of money and putting out minimal effort. And every now and then, NW rises to relevance, much to the chagrin of the Big10 West.
If you lived in Miami area you would know that unless they're playing Notre Dame, Penn state or Florida State, etc. they have no fans. They play in stadiums 30% full for home games. They would be a terrible addition to the Big 10
I do live in S FL and this post is spot on!!
That said if these $$$$$$$recruits pay off and do really well that CAN change.
IMO - BIG expansion should attempt to establish strong “outposts” in SEC territory. This will cause the SEC to concentrate on keeping what they have versus expanding. So, that being said, Florida State and Georgia Tech would fit. Also, the BIG should look to expand its East Coast footprint: UVA and UNC. I don’t think the conference gains anything from further Midwest expansion (Missouri, Kansas) and I’m assuming Notre Dame will be its usual haughty, recalcitrant self. So unless one or both of the Texas SEC schools cand be convinced to turn their cloaks and join, FL ST, Geo Tech, UVA, and UNC would be the best additions.
Miami would be a money leech in a big 10. They bring nothing, nothing they have no fan base. Bog yake5s with mo fan base.
The ACC is safe until 2033. The only way to break into it is if the whole conference disbanded. And that won't happen because the Big Ten doesn't want enough of the ACC's schools...and ESPN already owns the rights to the other ACC schools the Big Ten doesn't want (ones the SEC might take).
The SEC has no targets it wants. It took the best of the Big 12. I don't think it sees value in the mountain teams from the Pac-10. And the ACC is locked down.
If expansion continues, it would be with the Big Ten targeting Pac-12 schools, Notre Dame, or Kansas.
The SEC has no targets it wants. It took the best of the Big 12. I don't think it sees value in the mountain teams from the Pac-10. And the ACC is locked down.
If expansion continues, it would be with the Big Ten targeting Pac-12 schools, Notre Dame, or Kansas.
And if ESPN gets out of the deal? which seems like it's on the table. ESPN and the ACC aren't stupid and know what's going to happen here.
Why in the world would ESPN "get out of the deal"? - they have an entire conference's rights at a cheap price for over another decade. They'd much rather pay Clemson and FSU ACC rates for their games than have them move to the SEC and pay them more.
Furthermore, I'm not sure it would make any difference. The GOR ties all the schools to the conference, not to the network. It's there to protect the interest of the majority of the ACC by providing stability. The only way to get rid of it is to have a majority of conference members agree to dissolve the conference or remove the GOR and there are not 8 schools in the ACC who are looking at a better situation without the ACC intact.
There's always the possibility that a GOR gets challenged in court, but no one to date has bothered to even try (e.g. Oklahoma and Texas are sticking around in the Big 12 until their GOR expires). Given the exceeding high costs of the ACC's GOR, it will be interesting to see if anyone tries to get out of it - but typically these things end in settlements of a middle price. But with the buyout for a team leaving the ACC being something like $400M, I don't think any reasonable "deal" would be palatable for the leaving team no matter how much the SEC or Big Ten pay out.
You keep saying things ignoring everything being discussed because it doesn't fit your agenda. ESPN can get out of televising games with teams that you claim add nothing like BC, GT, etc and move Clemson, FSU and the schools with value into a conference that benefits them. Big picture.
The Big Ten said they had an alliance with the Pac XII--you and I both know "foreseeable future" means until the timing is right to announce expansion.Nobody is saying those schools don't add value. The problem is that most of those teams don't add enough value to either the SEC or Big 10, to make it worthwhile for either conference to add teams.
The Big 10 & SEC indicate they are staying at 16 teams for the foreseeable future.
ACC, BIG TEN AND PAC-12 ANNOUNCE HISTORIC ALLIANCE
The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 today announced an historic alliance that will bring 41 world-class institutions together on a collaborative approach surrounding the future evolution of college athletics and scheduling.
bigten.org
We never had an alliance--it was just a lie while they negotiated to take their top 2 teams.
Just like the SEC and Big Ten have no plans to stay at 16 but aren't going to say that until they make their next move.
Why do people here act naïve?
I said 20-24 each and they will--I didn't say they would in 2024.
If you don't see the writing on the wall I don't know what to tell you. Apparently you think the ACC/BigTen/PacXII alliance was something more than a façade. I can't help you at that point.
And who says the SEC/Big Ten aren't interested in them. There's dominos that have to fall first.
I'm ok with this.
Make VA and NC green by virtue of the B1G grabbing UNC and UVA and the SEC NC St. and VT.
Think NU is putting in more than a minimal effort.
Over the past decade, spent north of $350 million on athletic facilities upgrades.
Since 1995, 3 B1G titles and 2 B1G West titles; only dOSU, UW and MSU have appeared in more B1G Championship games (6 schools have yet to appear in 1).
Neither the B1G nor FS1 are interested in BC (and there are other schools that ND would much rather see join the B1G with them, if it came to that).
The addition of BC has been a major disappointment for the ACC, so why would the B1G be interested?
CU and GT are 3rd tier candidates as well.
Projected Disparity in P5 Conference Payouts
Based on some reliable reporting, a Twitter guy projected the numbers for school payouts per conference, and it only further illustrates how lucrative UCLA's move to the Big Ten could be...
247sports.com
Latest scuttle butt is that ND will be happy if they can get their NBC deal to $75 mil and remain independent. ND has enough money and can stand firm with where they are at. The NCAA will continue to make a place for them in the playoff. They might never make a move.
And when they don't get 75M? And what happens when the SEC and Big Ten leave the NCAA?
I don't understand why you think ratings are going to tank. They're doing this to cater to people 25-50 not 50+.
I read somewhere the $75M is for football only and is highly unlikely, it's more of a ridiculous proposal to see if NBC bites on it. Assuming 7 home games, is NBC really going to pay $10M per game? Doubtful.
Why would ratings tank?
Yes ratings may decline a bit over time as the "casual" sports fan disappears; the types of fans that just watch sports through channel surfing and won't find sports on streaming services as often.
But sports will hold up better than anything else as a live/real-time product.
Sports are already nearly all of the top 100 broadcasts (dominated by the NFL of course), but college football holds its own just below the NFL. Everything non-sport related is a crapshoot.
That isn't going to change, and the streaming services (especially Amazon Prime and Apple TV+) will fork out tons of money to get the hardcore sports fans that will always remain with the games. That's the only audience that you can guarantee will be there for the show.
That's why money will always be there for sports. It's a lot easier to just broadcast a sports game than try to find the next Squid Game.
Ultimately all of these factors are also driving realignment; put the biggest brands together with the flagships of the biggest states and their millions of living alums (a core base), and you have a product guaranteed to last.
Predictable to us that are paying attention
The Big Ten is evaluating the worthiness of adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 to expand its conference to at least 20 teams, sources told CBS Sports this week.
Edit: Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame also being mentioned. I hope they get to 24 just to watch the meltdown.
The Big Ten is evaluating the worthiness of adding Cal, Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 to expand its conference to at least 20 teams, sources told CBS Sports this week.
Edit: Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame also being mentioned. I hope they get to 24 just to watch the meltdown.
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This evaluation will either make or break the P12.
If the B10 decides not to pry loose the Huskies & the Ducks then the P12 will survive for the time being.
There is just no way you will break the ACC GOR.
ND trying to negotiate a deal for some shoulder programming for Domers v (other P5)
conference opponents. They assume they can make $75 million/season.
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Pry loose? Huskies and Ducks would bow to Kevin Warrdn if invited.
Notre Dame won't get 75M in my opinion
If they add Washington, Oregon along with Stanford and Cal (confused by Cal) it will be interesting how they get to 24 from there and how much say ND will have in that.
Those PAC 12 additions will happen along with Utah, Colo., and Az. in the next couple of yrs. Book it. Not so fast on Miami and FSU. Don’t fit.
Agreed - those Pac 12 additions are probably already close. The mention of Miami and FSU might be more of a shot across the bow of the SEC than anything else. With the current ACC GOR, I don't see it happening soon plus those schools fit better with the SEC and they'd probably sooner be in the SEC.
ND is probably looking to combine a deal with the Big 12 or ACC that will get them the money they are looking for so they can stay independent for a few more years at least.
I think you are spot on. From ND's perspective, they have managed to enjoy the best of both worlds. They are in a conference where it best suits their interests and independent where it serves their traditions and interests without hurting their bottom line. I don't see them changing until staying the course isn't possible or they are falling way behind financially.
