Beard
- Thread starter Sudystin
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AA potential this year for sure, but unless Shak goes to Cael and wants to call it quits, I think next week is a tad to early. I am losing confidence with every match but Shak could still put it together enough to get an AA of his own.
If they are considering or leaning, why send out Hoopes today, when Michael could have used that to help get enough matches for seeding.
Beard has all the tools but needs a little more work on his bottom game and he had gassed late in the 3rd in several matches. One more year will do wonders.
If they are considering or leaning, why send out Hoopes today, when Michael could have used that to help get enough matches for seeding.
Beard has all the tools but needs a little more work on his bottom game and he had gassed late in the 3rd in several matches. One more year will do wonders.
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Yeah Shak's effort really lets him decide what Cael does. Shak is done. Cael didn't start him today for a reason.
Before this goes off the rails, the suggestion made above is flat out incorrect.
Byers said Shak is "dinged up." If they're pulling Beard's shirt, why wouldn't he have gone today?
Unless Shak had another issue or a re-injury of the knee I can’t see any reason for not going today against a likely inferior wrestler and getting some confidence going. Does make you wonder if something is in the works.
JB said Shak was being checked out which is why he did not wrestle today. I imagine a medical checkup, probably of his knee. I assume the results will go a long way towards helping Cael make his decision.
Reminder, this is who people are replying to:
First time i ever used ignore and boy was I confused.... I thought roar was uncharacteristically shooting down the beard chatter by OP.
I once put Guns on ignore in order to read everyone's responses to him in a vacuum. Good entertainment.
just another gunsie iteration pretending he knows something about wrestling. has fries burned his redshirt year yet?
Now that is concerning. I don't see any indication of a limp with Shak, but if any athelete were coming back from an ACL and 9 months of rehab and still felt pain or instability..... that would explain a lot.
No matter how hard you might try and block it out most would wrestle tentative. If he is not 90%+ I could definitely see Cael pulling the plug soon. If he is 90%+ then he has a month to get some mojo back.
I don't think Shak looks as strong this season, appears to be "smaller" this year, he looked "bigger" last year.
Regarding Beard, at this point, one match yesterday if they decide to pull his shirt probably does not make a difference for seeding. I guess we find out Friday night.
Regarding Beard, at this point, one match yesterday if they decide to pull his shirt probably does not make a difference for seeding. I guess we find out Friday night.
I thought he had a more standard looking brace, I remember AB with a mummy wrap, but of course I can barely remember what I did yesterday so take my memory with a grain of salt...
Photographic proof a few posts down prove my memory is crap. AB and Shak have similar mummy wraps on their legs.
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I don't know what it was but that was the first thing I noticed. At first, it looked like a simple knee pad.
Watching the last few match's, I think we all can confirm.
Brooks was beating Shack in the room.
Shack has not regained his physical ability and the mental edge needed to compete at this level.
I would have thought that if it was strictly a mental issue, he would of wrestled against Maryland. It was the perfect opportunity to regain some confidence.
Maybe all related to Caels comments after the match.
Brooks was beating Shack in the room.
Shack has not regained his physical ability and the mental edge needed to compete at this level.
I would have thought that if it was strictly a mental issue, he would of wrestled against Maryland. It was the perfect opportunity to regain some confidence.
Maybe all related to Caels comments after the match.
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If neither Brady nor Shak can go this year, I don't think it makes sense to pull Michael's shirt. It seems more logical to load up for the next few years.
Disagree totally, we are so close, and already burned AB, either one of these guys could give us enough, especially Beard.
Don't let that close score fool you, Iowa has a big tournament advantage compared to a dual. If Berge is out for the year, I see absolutely no chance of catching Iowa at nationals barring some really bad luck with injuries for the Hawks.
The only way they pull Beard’s RS is if Cael thinks it gives them a chance to win NCAAS again vs Shak in the lineup. He knows we are are closer to Iowa than people thought. I trust Cael on this. He knows a heck of a lot more than the rest of us.
Have to agree here. The dual was excellent and showed we are better than many thought; however, the gap between us and Iowa in a tournament is pretty huge. I haven’t lost all hope, but it’s important to keep perspective when thinking about the future and whose shirts we should burn.
Yeah, we saw Iowa fans fall into that trap for a few years when the duals were close, but we had a much better tournament team
I tend to agree that if, and it's a big if, they are considering pulling Beard's shirt, it may have as much to do with Berge as it does with Shak. Without Berge our chances at nationals is much more difficult. There is a chance they want Beard now but until they get a better indication as to Berge's chances they hold off a few more weeks.
Beard might well give us 5-10 more points than Shak assuming Shak doesn't improve, but that gain if not more is immediately offset by the lack of Berge in the lineup. Granted it remains a big unknown what version of Berge we might get after missing the whole season.
A package deal is not such a crazy idea when you look at the math. I also remain unconvinced Shak will not improve some in the next month.
I don't know how much this factors in, but I'm sure it factors a bit: Shak was planning to wrestle 184 and even weighed in at 184 for the ASU dual. Instead of bulking up to start the season as he did 2 years ago, he was cutting. It has to have at least some effect on his strength/bulk.
I'll sit back and allow Cael to make this decision. He asked me if we were still riding this horse, yep, she's still going strong. He also said, Berge said, the coffee at the Mayo Clinic sucks and they use that powdered creamer sh&t.
I am not so sure now after Friday.
125 - Lee, national champion
133 - DeSanto - RBY might have provided the game plan to beat him. He could go from finals contender to low AA
141 - Murin is hurting, low AA at best
149 - Lugo - not sold on Lugo as a high scorer
157 - Young - 3rd at best
165- Marinelli - good enough to win it, then again he was the last 2 years too and his best finish is 5th
174 - Kemerer - good enough to win, don't think he beats Hall again
184 - Assad - could place or not
197 - Warner - mid to low AA
285 - Cassioppi - 2nd to low AA
For PSU, RBY, Lee, Joseph and Hall are all good enough to win it (not saying they will). Brooks has finalist potential at 184. Seth could be a low AA at 285. If Berge comes back there is AA ability there, put Beard in the lineup at 197 with AA potential and that could be enough to win it.
Rankings from Intermat last week had Iowa with 150 points to 89 for us. Agree, right now it is not close. Many things can change but just adding a healthy Berge and a possible AA from Beard at 197 doesn't even get us into the ball park let alone close.
Lots can and probably will change between now and NCAAs and based on recent history I expect us to close the gap, but the gap is really large right now.
PSU doesn't need Beard or Berge to win, though points from both of those weights would help (think gravy. Who doesn't like gravy besides my crazy sister-in-law?). I just ran the simulations this morning with updated seeds.
Let's assume Berge doesn't make it back this year. The keys at the moment for PSU are RBY and Brooks. RBY has a path to a #2 seed (and #1 if he can beat Gross). Brooks has a path to a #2-3. It is not inconceivable he could be BT champ with one loss.
I can identify key BT tourney results once we get closer and get that seeded.
If you get (seeds in parentheses):
133 - RBY (1/2), 157 - No PSU, 184 - Brooks (2/3), 197 - Rasheed (16+), HWT - Nevills (12), all other weights pretty much as they are now.
133 - DeSanto (5/6), 149 - Lugo (4/6), 157 - Young (5), 184 - Assad (11-13), all other weights pretty much as they are now.
PSU is actually favored in this scenario. Put simply, 5 high finishers with bonus beats a more balanced team with limited bonus.
All of these are reasonable based on matches left to go and where everyone is ranked nationally. Outside of Spencer, Iowa has a 4.5% team bonus rate against Top 16. That is not good. They score less points than their rankings because of this and a bit of tournament underperformance compared to dual meets. Iowa fans are counting on bonus from Marinelli, DeSanto, and Cass - those three are 5/72 in their careers and 1/15 this year (according to WrestleStat). It is quite likely PSU makes up 10 points on Iowa in bonus. Based on Iowa's rankings they should have 27 (+/-) bonus points whereas my model has them at 12 (+/-). Of course a lot of this will depend on draws. Some low seeds lose but just don't get bonused (like the 165 lb from Lehigh).
Cliff notes: RBY and Brooks keep winning, DeSanto, Lugo, Assad (and Young) take a loss or two especially in the BT tourney.
UFF
Let's assume Berge doesn't make it back this year. The keys at the moment for PSU are RBY and Brooks. RBY has a path to a #2 seed (and #1 if he can beat Gross). Brooks has a path to a #2-3. It is not inconceivable he could be BT champ with one loss.
I can identify key BT tourney results once we get closer and get that seeded.
If you get (seeds in parentheses):
133 - RBY (1/2), 157 - No PSU, 184 - Brooks (2/3), 197 - Rasheed (16+), HWT - Nevills (12), all other weights pretty much as they are now.
133 - DeSanto (5/6), 149 - Lugo (4/6), 157 - Young (5), 184 - Assad (11-13), all other weights pretty much as they are now.
PSU is actually favored in this scenario. Put simply, 5 high finishers with bonus beats a more balanced team with limited bonus.
All of these are reasonable based on matches left to go and where everyone is ranked nationally. Outside of Spencer, Iowa has a 4.5% team bonus rate against Top 16. That is not good. They score less points than their rankings because of this and a bit of tournament underperformance compared to dual meets. Iowa fans are counting on bonus from Marinelli, DeSanto, and Cass - those three are 5/72 in their careers and 1/15 this year (according to WrestleStat). It is quite likely PSU makes up 10 points on Iowa in bonus. Based on Iowa's rankings they should have 27 (+/-) bonus points whereas my model has them at 12 (+/-). Of course a lot of this will depend on draws. Some low seeds lose but just don't get bonused (like the 165 lb from Lehigh).
Cliff notes: RBY and Brooks keep winning, DeSanto, Lugo, Assad (and Young) take a loss or two especially in the BT tourney.
UFF
This year so far as a team 20% and historically for the current starters about 25%. It is important because if you are winning matches at nationals most of your bouts are against Top 16.
Was wrestling ‘84 going into this season, until Conel got hurt.
We are having bum luck this year, for sure.
I'm not saying we're gonna win but Iowa scoring 150 points is ludicrous.
Stone good stuff there, but I don't agree on the Desanto assessment
Some good stuff there, but I don't agree on the Desanto assessment. No way he is 5/6. Likewise Assad at 11/13 against a pretty weak field is way too conservative.
The nationals herd has been thinned this year due to the Olympics and on balance I think this helps Iowa more than PSU.
I don't think we're can get there on paper without a healthy Berge AND a solid 197 whether it be a better version of Shak or Beard
Some good stuff there, but I don't agree on the Desanto assessment. No way he is 5/6. Likewise Assad at 11/13 against a pretty weak field is way too conservative.
The nationals herd has been thinned this year due to the Olympics and on balance I think this helps Iowa more than PSU.
I don't think we're can get there on paper without a healthy Berge AND a solid 197 whether it be a better version of Shak or Beard
There are many factors for 2021, but in terms of losing from this year--PSU loses more than Iowa. We lose Hall and Joseph (2 former NC's and every time finals contestants) especially. Kemerer probably gets a 6th year, so they're probably only losing Lugo, and will be getting Eierman to replace him (probably an upgrade). So Iowa will return more points. The big question is how much are we bringing in? Lee, Starocci, Beard and possibly Kerkvliet will bring in some significant points too. I'd say it's probably close to a wash and next year shapes up to be a challenge too, but potentially doable.
Note: I say Lee, but Manville will be in the mix at 165 too!
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