Beard

[El-Jefe]

I am just curious if 2021 will be the same between psu and Iowa with Iowa an edge , or is next year a “normal” year for psu and the favorite to win in March ?

Add onto to what Tom said above:

The big wild card is the volume of incoming shirts (Olympic and regular) -- several returning national finalists and more likely AAs. Hard to tell at first glance which program will be hit harder. For example: RBY and DeSanto could both finish lower with Suriano, Fix, and Micic back. Nick and Eierman will lose Pletcher but gain Yianni. Marinelli will likely have to deal with Lewis again. Brooks and Assad will lose Zahid but gain Dean and Amine. Etc.

 

[Gray52]

Don’t feed the trolls.

 

[NittanyLion84]

PSU doesn't need Beard or Berge to win, though points from both of those weights would help (think gravy. Who doesn't like gravy besides my crazy sister-in-law?). I just ran the simulations this morning with updated seeds.

Let's assume Berge doesn't make it back this year. The keys at the moment for PSU are RBY and Brooks. RBY has a path to a #2 seed (and #1 if he can beat Gross). Brooks has a path to a #2-3. It is not inconceivable he could be BT champ with one loss.

I can identify key BT tourney results once we get closer and get that seeded.

If you get (seeds in parentheses):

133 - RBY (1/2), 157 - No PSU, 184 - Brooks (2/3), 197 - Rasheed (16+), HWT - Nevills (12), all other weights pretty much as they are now.

133 - DeSanto (5/6), 149 - Lugo (4/6), 157 - Young (5), 184 - Assad (11-13), all other weights pretty much as they are now.

PSU is actually favored in this scenario. Put simply, 5 high finishers with bonus beats a more balanced team with limited bonus.

All of these are reasonable based on matches left to go and where everyone is ranked nationally. Outside of Spencer, Iowa has a 4.5% team bonus rate against Top 16. That is not good. They score less points than their rankings because of this and a bit of tournament underperformance compared to dual meets. Iowa fans are counting on bonus from Marinelli, DeSanto, and Cass - those three are 5/72 in their careers and 1/15 this year (according to WrestleStat). It is quite likely PSU makes up 10 points on Iowa in bonus. Based on Iowa's rankings they should have 27 (+/-) bonus points whereas my model has them at 12 (+/-). Of course a lot of this will depend on draws. Some low seeds lose but just don't get bonused (like the 165 lb from Lehigh).

Cliff notes: RBY and Brooks keep winning, DeSanto, Lugo, Assad (and Young) take a loss or two especially in the BT tourney.

UFF

Boy, we sure could have used your data when 21 Guns was on his 8 scoring wrestlers mantra.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Boy, we sure could have used your data when 21 Guns was on his 8 scoring wrestlers mantra.

We had it.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Stone good stuff there, but I don't agree on the Desanto assessment


Some good stuff there, but I don't agree on the Desanto assessment. No way he is 5/6. Likewise Assad at 11/13 against a pretty weak field is way too conservative.

The nationals herd has been thinned this year due to the Olympics and on balance I think this helps Iowa more than PSU.

I don't think we're can get there on paper without a healthy Berge AND a solid 197 whether it be a better version of Shak or Beard

You are correct about the herd being thinned and it helping the leaders, but on average the top teams wrestle lower (in scoring), because there isn't much upside. It is easier to be the chaser.

For 133 - You have Gross, RBY, DeSanto, and Rivera, all Big Ten. Outside of the BT you have Tucker (EIWA) almost assured of 32-0 and Phillippi (ACC) almost assured of 25-1. A couple of the BT guys probably end up with 3 losses. I think the BT gets #1 and #2, then #5 and #6. Those other conferences would cry fowl otherwise. The wild card is Rivera who has been out injured.

For 184 Assad has 5 losses and is 1 and 4 against the Top 16. This is the list of guys he has to finish higher than to be higher than a 10 seed:

Valencia (18-0), Lujan (21-2), Bolen (21-1), Hidlay (20-2), Deprez (19-5), Bonacorrsi (16-4), Caffey (21-6), Brooks (8-1), Venz (12-7)

Most of these guys have weaker schedules going forward (outside of the ACC) so their records are unlikely to get much worse. Assad wins the BT and he could squeak into #5, that is the ceiling. This weekend he didn't look like a guy who is winning the BT tournament to me but that is why they wrestle. He will be in a big group of guys with similar records.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

We have no idea what the transfer portal will bring to PSU, Iowa or anyone else for that matter. It is much harder to predict future results when there is more than just current rosters and recruits in play.

 

[District four]

I HeArD a RuMoR tHaT yANnI iS TrAnSfErRiNg To PsU NeXt YeAr LoL

 

[PSUer1989]

I HeArD a RuMoR tHaT yANnI iS TrAnSfErRiNg To PsU NeXt YeAr LoL

Not even funny...PSU is Zain territory

 

[PD4thespawn]

I HeArD a RuMoR tHaT yANnI iS TrAnSfErRiNg To PsU NeXt YeAr LoL

said his younger brother?

 

[johnstownsteel]

I HeArD a RuMoR tHaT yANnI iS TrAnSfErRiNg To PsU NeXt YeAr LoL

Hes probably wanting to know whats in that 3 inch binder...

 

[nitlion6]

Just a thought to ponder.
If it were possible for PSU to have 4 champions scoring 100 points.
If it were also possible to grab a 5th finalist, adding maybe 18 more points.
If it were possible that maybe a 6th placer could add another 9.
Now if that was at all possible and Beard could grab another AA.
PSU might be looking at 130 plus. Only if you are OSU competing against a PSU team with Bo, Cenzo and Jason do you score 130 plus and take home a second place trophy.

The Beard decision is weightier than some realize.

Just pondering.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

@Unbiased_football_fan

@nitlion6

 

[slushhead]

Just a thought to ponder.
If it were possible for PSU to have 4 champions scoring 100 points.
If it were also possible to grab a 5th finalist, adding maybe 18 more points.
If it were possible that maybe a 6th placer could add another 9.
Now if that was at all possible and Beard could grab another AA.
PSU might be looking at 130 plus. Only if you are OSU competing against a PSU team with Bo, Cenzo and Jason do you score 130 plus and take home a second place trophy.

The Beard decision is weightier than some realize.

Just pondering.

There is a path. But it will take a perfect tournament from the 7 guys/weights you allude to. The odds are pretty grim on that basis alone.

However, a near perfect tournament from those guys is reasonably possible, and the beauty of the NCAA tournament is that any team can succumb to the elements and show vulnerability. To repeat in 2020, PSU will likely need a repeat of 2011. Seems like yesterday . . .

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

There is a path. But it will take a perfect tournament from the 7 guys/weights you allude to. The odds are pretty grim on that basis alone.

However, a near perfect tournament from those guys is reasonably possible, and the beauty of the NCAA tournament is that any team can succumb to the elements and show vulnerability. To repeat in 2020, PSU will likely need a repeat of 2011. Seems like yesterday . . .

Silly rabbit, everyone knows it takes 8 scoring wrestlers to win NCAAs.

 

[nitlion6]

@Unbiased_football_fan

@nitlion6

I am as blue and white biased as they come. However, my bias does not mean I am wrong. I am not saying we will have 5 finalists, but it isn't like it is far fetched.

 

[nitlion6]

There is a path. But it will take a perfect tournament from the 7 guys/weights you allude to. The odds are pretty grim on that basis alone.

However, a near perfect tournament from those guys is reasonably possible, and the beauty of the NCAA tournament is that any team can succumb to the elements and show vulnerability. To repeat in 2020, PSU will likely need a repeat of 2011. Seems like yesterday . . .

2011 was certainly a whole lot of fun.

 

[HOCKEYGOD11]

I am as blue and white biased as they come. However, my bias does not mean I am wrong. I am not saying we will have 5 finalists, but it isn't like it is far fetched.

The 5 would be?
Lee/Cenzo/Hall and then I am assuming you are going
RBY/Brooks as the other 2? It is possible but man that is asking a lot of them.. would love it to happen and certainly makes the tournament exciting this year.

 

[nitlion6]

The 5 would be?
Lee/Cenzo/Hall and then I am assuming you are going
RBY/Brooks as the other 2? It is possible but man that is asking a lot of them.. would love it to happen and certainly makes the tournament exciting this year.

My point here is that what we see as fans is one thing. It is what "the Sanderson crew" sees that dictates. If they see a legitimate shot at 5 finalists, then they probably want to put forth a lineup that adds as many peripheral points as possible.
If its 3 finalists and 2 or 3 more AAs with an outside shot at maybe a 100 points and being 20 or 25 points short then Beard's shirt should stay on.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

The 5 would be?
Lee/Cenzo/Hall and then I am assuming you are going
RBY/Brooks as the other 2? It is possible but man that is asking a lot of them.. would love it to happen and certainly makes the tournament exciting this year.

Anyone who thought Desanto was a surefire finalist should find it EASY to believe RBY can be one.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

If....IF...PSU puts five in the finals they will win. Very tall task but doable with the talent on the roster.

 

[CholleyVandine]

If....IF...PSU puts five in the finals they will win. Very tall task but doable with the talent on the roster.

Track currently has four PSU wrestlers ranked 1st (RBY, Joseph) or 2nd (Lee, Hall). Brooks seems like he would have the best shot to be the fifth guy. He's currently ranked 6th by Track. Interestingly, on this date in their freshman years, Mark Hall was ranked 7th and Nico was ranked 9th.They both found their way to the finals six weeks later.

 

[El-Jefe]

Track currently has four PSU wrestlers ranked 1st (RBY, Joseph) or 2nd (Lee, Hall).

How is RBY ranked 1 when we were told Friday's match didn't count?

 

[nitlion6]

How is RBY ranked 1 when we were told Friday's match didn't count?

That one ranked has as much say as the one HOF voter who forgot Derek Jeter was on the ballot this year.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Been against the grain all year so why stop now. Still say PSU will be national champs. I also think we havent yet seen the lineup that we will be taking there..

 

[CholleyVandine]

How is RBY ranked 1 when we were told Friday's match didn't count?

Ha. Apparently it does count in some places, not so much in others.

 

[dsites52]

There are many factors for 2021, but in terms of losing from this year--PSU loses more than Iowa. We lose Hall and Joseph (2 former NC's and every time finals contestants) especially. Kemerer probably gets a 6th year, so they're probably only losing Lugo, and will be getting Eierman to replace him (probably an upgrade). So Iowa will return more points. The big question is how much are we bringing in? Lee, Starocci, Beard and possibly Kerkvliet will bring in some significant points too. I'd say it's probably close to a wash and next year shapes up to be a challenge too, but potentially doable.

Note: I say Lee, but Manville will be in the mix at 165 too!

Don't forget Howard! He'll be an upgrade.

 

[jmadden1998]

If....IF...PSU puts five in the finals they will win. Very tall task but doable with the talent on the roster.

Even if Iowa puts 4 or 5 in the finals? It’s just as likely as Penn St having that many finalists. Could very well be 3 finals with head to head (133, 165, 174). Cassioppi could very well make it and Lugo could make it as well. Then you have Young at 157 and Warner at 197 with pretty good AA potential. Without points at 125 and 157 and little to no points from 149, even with a perfect tournament, Penn St is going to need a lot of underperformance from Iowa. Not saying it can’t happen as we know it has before but Iowa hasn’t had this many potential high scorers in a long time.

 

[jqforster]

If there was a time to pull Beard's red shirt it would be this weekend to get some mat time. Or at the same time to see how Shak goes against subpar opponents. Then decide to pull the shirt.

 

[Dunkindonuts]

Too late now. Locked in with Shak, who deserves the chance given his career dedication to the program.

 

[raslen007]

Too late now. Locked in with Shak, who deserves the chance given his career dedication to the program.

Explain why it's to late?

 

[CholleyVandine]

Too late now. Locked in with Shak, who deserves the chance given his career dedication to the program.

This seems to conflict with what Cael said yesterday. They are going to give Shak every opportunity after working his way back, but it sounds like Cael believes Beard is ready if Shak can't go.

 

[jtothemfp]

This seems to conflict with what Cael said yesterday. They are going to give Shak every opportunity after working his way back, but it sounds like Cael believes Beard is ready if Shak can't go.

Agreed. From Moyer's CDT:

When asked if there have been discussions yet about removing the redshirt, Sanderson didn’t offer a definitive no but intimated that would only be a last resort — if Rasheed couldn’t wrestle.
“We want to give Shak every possible option to compete,” Sanderson said. “He came back, he’s given us great years and, if he’s even close to healthy, as we’ve seen, he has a chance. It’s about him, giving him a chance to reach his goals.
“But we’ll see what happens over the next month. Beard, he’s ready to go if that were to be the case.”
​

Nothing's too late.

Plan A remains the same: give Shak every possible option to compete.

Plan B can be implemented at any time, including the week before the B1G Tourney

 

[TangSoo]

At a certain point it becomes a little unfair to Beard. They only get 4 shots at this and it would be a very abbreviated 1st season for Beard. Has Cael ever pulled a shirt in February? The flip side of that is, most kids would probably want to go and help their team.

 

[Kale_yeah]

Agreed. From Moyer's CDT:

When asked if there have been discussions yet about removing the redshirt, Sanderson didn’t offer a definitive no but intimated that would only be a last resort — if Rasheed couldn’t wrestle.
“We want to give Shak every possible option to compete,” Sanderson said. “He came back, he’s given us great years and, if he’s even close to healthy, as we’ve seen, he has a chance. It’s about him, giving him a chance to reach his goals.
“But we’ll see what happens over the next month. Beard, he’s ready to go if that were to be the case.”
​

Nothing's too late.

Plan A remains the same: give Shak every possible option to compete.

Plan B can be implemented at any time, including the week before the B1G Tourney

I wonder if shack couldn't wrestle and won't wrestle are interchangeable ,for him to pull Beards shirt.

 

[CholleyVandine]

At a certain point it becomes a little unfair to Beard. They only get 4 shots at this and it would be a very abbreviated 1st season for Beard. Has Cael ever pulled a shirt in February? The flip side of that is, most kids would probably want to go and help their team.

I know what you're saying, but of the 35 other guys on the team, only six have wrestled more matches than him this year.

 

[TangSoo]

I know what you're saying, but of the 35 other guys on the team, only six have wrestled more matches than him this year.

Fair point. The only retorts I'd have to that are just hearing the guys talk about how big a deal it is to wrestle in Rec Hall. But probably more importantly is the opportunity to earn a good seat at Nationals. Oh well, like others have said many time, I trust in Cael.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

Even if Iowa puts 4 or 5 in the finals? It’s just as likely as Penn St having that many finalists. Could very well be 3 finals with head to head (133, 165, 174). Cassioppi could very well make it and Lugo could make it as well. Then you have Young at 157 and Warner at 197 with pretty good AA potential. Without points at 125 and 157 and little to no points from 149, even with a perfect tournament, Penn St is going to need a lot of underperformance from Iowa. Not saying it can’t happen as we know it has before but Iowa hasn’t had this many potential high scorers in a long time.

I don't know that we disagree. I expect Iowa to have three in the finals and I see 7 guys on Iowa that have realistic potential to make the finals. I don't think it is likely that PSU puts five in the finals thus the double if. I think 120 points wins it this year and with five finalists PSU could get there.

 

[jtothemfp]

At a certain point it becomes a little unfair to Beard. They only get 4 shots at this and it would be a very abbreviated 1st season for Beard. Has Cael ever pulled a shirt in February? The flip side of that is, most kids would probably want to go and help their team.

Agreed here, as well: it would kinda suck for Beard to burn an eligibility year but only wrestle 8-10 bouts in the postseason. As you also note, it could also be very cool, if he ran some tables, earned a title, and helped the team win a tight team race.

Cael's history of late-February / pre-B1Gs lineup changes don't really have an example of this biz case of pulling a shirt. Hall's came off in Carver in a Jan dual. Nick Lee's came off right after a great Scuffle showing, in which Jered Cortez also got re-injured. Brooks' this year, in December. Nico started his TRFR season in the beginning, same with Zain. Most of the other elite studs got luxurious full-season Redshirts.

The most memorable non-RS-related late-season juggling was at 149. In 2014, Cael famously chose All-American James English over Zach Beitz & Luke Frey to replace the injured Andrew Alton. In 2015, he went with Frey to do the same.

 

[TangSoo]

Agreed here, as well: it would kinda suck for Beard to burn an eligibility year but only wrestle 8-10 bouts in the postseason. As you also note, it could also be very cool, if he ran some tables, earned a title, and helped the team win a tight team race.

Cael's history of late-February / pre-B1Gs lineup changes don't really have an example of this biz case of pulling a shirt. Hall's came off in Carver in a Jan dual. Nick Lee's came off right after a great Scuffle showing, in which Jered Cortez also got re-injured. Brooks' this year, in December. Nico started his TRFR season in the beginning, same with Zain. Most of the other elite studs got luxurious full-season Redshirts.

The most memorable non-RS-related late-season juggling was at 149. In 2014, Cael famously chose All-American James English over Zach Beitz & Luke Frey to replace the injured Andrew Alton. In 2015, he went with Frey to do the same.

Good Stuff. I still remember team lineups from when I was a kid, but hardly remember any of what you just listed. Well, I remember AB . It just occurred to me that MAYBE Nick Nevills came in a bit late his first year. I'll have to look that up.

 

[Ja1339]

Good Stuff. I still remember team lineups from when I was a kid, but hardly remember any of what you just listed. Well, I remember AB . It just occurred to me that MAYBE Nick Nevills came in a bit late his first year. I'll have to look that up.

NN came in against Lehigh, remember being there.