Big 10 Tourney wrestlestat simulation

[jmadden1998]

I ran the brackets through wrestlestat’s comparison tool and calculated the team points. I ran assuming Starocci wrestles all matches and I ran assuming he injury defaults both of his matches. Also, at 141 Fongaro and Vombaur are tied for the 9 seed so I went with Fongaro at 9 and Vombaur at 10. Final seeds won’t be released until Friday.

125

1 Ramos
2 Ayala
3 McKee
4 Smith
5 Davis
6 Barnett
7 McCrone
8 DeAugustino.

133

1 Bouzakis
2 Nagao
3 Ragusin
4 Shawver
5 Van Dee
6 Brown
7 Madrigal
8 Wells

141

1 Mendez
2 Bartlett
3 Woods
4 Hardy
5 Lemley
6 Vombaur
7 Moore
8 Pucino

149

1 Lovett
2 Gomez
3 Kasak
4 Rathjen
5 Miller
6 D’Emilio
7 Zargo
8 Rooks

157

1 Haines
2 Lee
3 Franek
4 Robb
5 Blockhus
6 Lewan
7 Blaze
8 Saldate

165

1 Hamiti
2 Mesenbrink
3 Caliendo
4 Amine
5 Taylor
6 Hepner
7 Fish
8 Lillard

174 (with Starocci competing)

1 Starocci
2 Griffith
3 Kennedy
4 Welsh
5 Ruth
6 Turley
7 Washington
8 Baumann

174 (without Starocci)

1 Griffith
2 Welsh
3 Kennedy
4 Turley
5 Ruth
6 Washington
7 Maylor
8 Baumann

184

1 Salazar
2 Pinto
3 Ryder Rogotzke
4 Soldano
5 Truax
6 Liegel
7 Malczewski
8 Bullock

197

1 Brooks
2 Smith
3 Glazier
4 Allred
5 Poznanski
6 Bates
7 Geog
8 Wisler

285

1 Kerkvliet
2 Davison
3 Feldman
4 Slavikouski
5 Hill
6 Nevills
7 Tabor
8 Willham

Teams Scores (Starocci competing)

1 Penn St 161
2 Ohio St 111
3 Nebraska 107
4 Iowa 106.5
5 Michigan 97.5
6 Minnesota 64
7 Rutgers 61
8 Wisconsin 45.5
9 Maryland 44
10 Indiana 37
11 Purdue 33
12 Michigan St 24
13 Illinois 23
14 Northwestern 11.5

Team Scores (Starocci defaulting both matches)

1 Penn St 141
2 Ohio St 115.5
3 Nebraska 107
4 Iowa 106.5
5 Michigan 101.5
6 Rutgers 64.5
7 Minnesota 64
8 Wisconsin 51
9 Maryland 44
10 Indiana 41.5
11 Purdue 34
12 Michigan St 24
13 Illinois 23.5
14 Northwestern 11.5

 

[7brwnpsu]

Iowa is fourth only if they finish their wrestle offs on time and make the bus to Maryland.

 

[Callthestall]

I ran the brackets through wrestlestat’s comparison tool and calculated the team points. I ran assuming Starocci wrestles all matches and I ran assuming he injury defaults both of his matches. Also, at 141 Fongaro and Vombaur are tied for the 9 seed so I went with Fongaro at 9 and Vombaur at 10. Final seeds won’t be released until Friday.

125

1 Ramos
2 Ayala
3 McKee
4 Smith
5 Davis
6 Barnett
7 McCrone
8 DeAugustino.

133

1 Bouzakis
2 Nagao
3 Ragusin
4 Shawver
5 Van Dee
6 Brown
7 Madrigal
8 Wells

141

1 Mendez
2 Bartlett
3 Woods
4 Hardy
5 Lemley
6 Vombaur
7 Moore
8 Pucino

149

1 Lovett
2 Gomez
3 Kasak
4 Rathjen
5 Miller
6 D’Emilio
7 Zargo
8 Rooks

157

1 Haines
2 Lee
3 Franek
4 Robb
5 Blockhus
6 Lewan
7 Blaze
8 Saldate

165

1 Hamiti
2 Mesenbrink
3 Caliendo
4 Amine
5 Taylor
6 Hepner
7 Fish
8 Lillard

174 (with Starocci competing)

1 Starocci
2 Griffith
3 Kennedy
4 Welsh
5 Ruth
6 Turley
7 Washington
8 Baumann

174 (without Starocci)

1 Griffith
2 Welsh
3 Kennedy
4 Turley
5 Ruth
6 Washington
7 Maylor
8 Baumann

184

1 Salazar
2 Pinto
3 Ryder Rogotzke
4 Soldano
5 Truax
6 Liegel
7 Malczewski
8 Bullock

197

1 Brooks
2 Smith
3 Glazier
4 Allred
5 Poznanski
6 Bates
7 Geog
8 Wisler

285

1 Kerkvliet
2 Davison
3 Feldman
4 Slavikouski
5 Hill
6 Nevills
7 Tabor
8 Willham

Teams Scores (Starocci competing)

1 Penn St 161
2 Ohio St 111
3 Nebraska 107
4 Iowa 106.5
5 Michigan 97.5
6 Minnesota 64
7 Rutgers 61
8 Wisconsin 45.5
9 Maryland 44
10 Indiana 37
11 Purdue 33
12 Michigan St 24
13 Illinois 23
14 Northwestern 11.5

Team Scores (Starocci defaulting both matches)

1 Penn St 141
2 Ohio St 115.5
3 Nebraska 107
4 Iowa 106.5
5 Michigan 101.5
6 Rutgers 64.5
7 Minnesota 64
8 Wisconsin 51
9 Maryland 44
10 Indiana 41.5
11 Purdue 34
12 Michigan St 24
13 Illinois 23.5
14 Northwestern 11.5

I would parlay Gomez and Pinto to get decent odds.

 

[McScoreley]

Thanks always for these @jmadden1998

I'm guessing the points simulate bonus already?

 

[BOSCO2]

Way too much time on your hands. Nevertheless, I appreciate the information.

 

[jmadden1998]

Thanks always for these @jmadden1998

I'm guessing the points simulate bonus already?

Correct. However, wrestlestat doesn’t apply bonus very often so these point totals are lower than what will actually happen.

 

[dbldoofus]

Correct. However, wrestlestat doesn’t apply bonus very often so these point totals are lower than what will actually happen.

I am thinking that Wrestle Stat may need to adjust for the 3 pt takedown in their algorithm.

 

[mhlarch]

Thanks always for these @jmadden1998

I'm guessing the points simulate bonus already?

Yes, thanks Madden, really good stuff here!

 

[jack66]

Wait ... what? No Teske at 133?

Wrestlestat doesn't seem to understand the brilliance of Brands' move.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Wait ... what? No Teske at 133?

Wrestlestat doesn't seem to understand the brilliance of Brands' move.

Wrestlestat isn't alone.