I know this will be discussed ad nauseam over the next few weeks but i see a lot of projections of PSU to the outback, however, last year’s teams entered the game with 8-4 records and also the year before that. How does a 10-2 PSU team end up there?
Bowl projections
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Wandering Spectator
Well-Known Member
My guess is the Rose is still in play. Need to destroy Rutgers and OSU to win out. We’d easily be the highest ranked B1G team not in the playoff. What am I missing?
Only way we miss out on NY6 is sheer corruption
Florida is constantly being mocked to a NY6 bowl (Cotton) in place of us and it’s mind boggling
Florida has just 1 ranked win over soon to be 8-4 Auburn. Penn state has 2 ranked wins over 9-2 Michigan and 8-3 Iowa.
Florida’s next best win is a 3 point win over 6-5 Miami... or a win over Tennessee ? Yeah...
Sure they have 2 great losses... by 14 to LSU and 7 to Georgia. But we have 2 great losses as well. If we are invited to outback bowl I would want us to decline.
We could still get the rose bowl if Wisconsin beats minny and than loses to Ohio state in the big ten championship.
Florida is constantly being mocked to a NY6 bowl (Cotton) in place of us and it’s mind boggling
Florida has just 1 ranked win over soon to be 8-4 Auburn. Penn state has 2 ranked wins over 9-2 Michigan and 8-3 Iowa.
Florida’s next best win is a 3 point win over 6-5 Miami... or a win over Tennessee ? Yeah...
Sure they have 2 great losses... by 14 to LSU and 7 to Georgia. But we have 2 great losses as well. If we are invited to outback bowl I would want us to decline.
We could still get the rose bowl if Wisconsin beats minny and than loses to Ohio state in the big ten championship.
What? A Wisky win next week knocks Minny out of the BT West and below PSU in playoff rankings clearing our path for Rose as long as OSU bests Wisky in conf championship game. If Wisky wins Big 10 championship game over OSU they will get Rose.
If we do not get Rose then I do think we drop to Outback because of Florida unless GA beats LSU and both go to playoff.
Rose probable as long as OSU wins out. Even if Minny beats Wisky, very likely PSU jumps Minny when all said and done. OSU curb stomping Minny would ice it.
For Rose
1. OSU beats Michigan (Mich would jump PSU with win)
2. OSU beats Minny fairly good
Wisky beating Minny and OSU beating Mich next week would guarantee it assuming OSU wins in Indy.
Despite the loss today, PSU won a little by keeping it close.
For Rose
1. OSU beats Michigan (Mich would jump PSU with win)
2. OSU beats Minny fairly good
Wisky beating Minny and OSU beating Mich next week would guarantee it assuming OSU wins in Indy.
Despite the loss today, PSU won a little by keeping it close.
Absolutely, since us they blew out ND Indiana on the road and add OSU in this scenario. Meanwhile we limp into clubhouse losing two. Rose Bowl would be all over it to get Michigan there finally.
You can easily say we were a few plays from losing to Pitt, Indiana, and Michigan.
Let it play out.
You can also say we were a few plays from beating Minnesota and Ohio State.
See it works both ways, genius.
Yeah, I can see that. We need the Luckeyes to take care of business and put scUM in their place. It also keeps scUM behind us and hopefully triggers a typical tailspin for them where they lose their bowl game.
I don't think scUM will fare well trying to defend Fields but they have a decent shot playing at home with Patterson playing well. If the Luckeyes turn the ball over again like they did today they probably lose.
I'm not so sure Wisky would get over-looked for Rose, even after they lose the B10 championship game.
3 losses. They are out for sure unless the Big Ten championship game is an overtime standoff then possibly. Even then you can't take a 3 loss team over a 2 loss team. Would not make any sense.
And Florida was a few plays from losing to Miami, Kentucky and South Carolina. It goes both ways.
At the end of the day it’s very possible Pitt beats BC at home and goes 8-4 and Indiana beats Purdue at home and goes 8-4
Both of those wins are better than any Florida win except auburn.
It’s just the Florida love fest that has me confused
Beating Pitt and Indiana are never considered good wins.
A Wisky win actually increases our NY6 chances -- Rose Bowl specifically.
Outback "lock"? No. Is it possible? Sure.
If Ohio State beats Michigan and then beats the Wisconsin/Minny winner, there's a very good chance we go to the Rose Bowl. That chance is elevated if Wisconsin wins @ Minny, and then Ohio State beats Wisconsin. But we can still do it if Minny wins next week, and gets pasted by Ohio State.
The scenario that most likely sends us to the Outback is:
-Michigan beats Ohio State (thus, Michigan to Rose/Orange)
-Minny beats Wisconsin
-Minny hangs tough with Ohio State (thus, Minny to the Rose/Orange)
The chairman of the committee commented directly that the win over 7-3 PITT was one of the pluses putting PSU back ahead of Minny.
Here is my "BEST CASE SCENARIO" ..... bunch of things would need to happen:
1. We destroy Rutgers and finish 10-2....
2. Ohio State destroys Michigan (YES, we need Michigan to have 3 losses AND be the team that gave Ohio State the toughest game).....
3. Wiscy beats MN by double-digits.... a 2-loss MN team probably drops down to about #14/15 in the rankings....
4. Ohio State beats Wiscy easily in the B1G Champ giving Wiscy their 3rd loss
IF all 4 of those things happen....
A. Ohio State goes to the 4-team playoff
B. The Rose is left with a 3-team choice between Wiscy, Penn State & MN. In this scenario we would be the highest rated B1G team for the Rose. We will most likely be top 10 while both MN and Wiscy would be in that 13-16 range. And, MN would not have won the West.
..... The most important thing to happen is for Wiscy to beat MN. If MN wins the West, then I feel the Rose will have too much pressure to take them.
1. We destroy Rutgers and finish 10-2....
2. Ohio State destroys Michigan (YES, we need Michigan to have 3 losses AND be the team that gave Ohio State the toughest game).....
3. Wiscy beats MN by double-digits.... a 2-loss MN team probably drops down to about #14/15 in the rankings....
4. Ohio State beats Wiscy easily in the B1G Champ giving Wiscy their 3rd loss
IF all 4 of those things happen....
A. Ohio State goes to the 4-team playoff
B. The Rose is left with a 3-team choice between Wiscy, Penn State & MN. In this scenario we would be the highest rated B1G team for the Rose. We will most likely be top 10 while both MN and Wiscy would be in that 13-16 range. And, MN would not have won the West.
..... The most important thing to happen is for Wiscy to beat MN. If MN wins the West, then I feel the Rose will have too much pressure to take them.
Why?
We started 8-0 (with wins over Michigan and @ Iowa), and lost by 5 on the road against a team that's sitting in the top-10, and lost by 11 on the road to the #2 team in the nation.
The resume is certainly a resume of a NY6 team. Regardless of when those two losses came.
You need to understand that your deep analysis of wins and losses over ranked teams, point differential, etc MEANS NOTHING!!
The bowl selections are determined by who the bowls and ESPN want to match up and if you haven't figured it out yet, there is a national media (ESPN) love affair with the SEC, I can't do anything more for you.
There are some general "rules" in some conferences/bowls about taking teams with no more/no less than 2 losses as compared to other teams, but again, those rules were created to give the bowls the flexibility of picking who they want "within reason".
Actually the NY6 and playoffs are determined by the committee and the tie ins that have to be satisfied. So, not sure how the rose committee plays into things or how much input they have as the playoff committee determines those bowls based on their criteria and they obviously think highly of PSU's resume.
Agree 100% - If we have to hear anymore about "since the halftime of the Penn State Game"….everyone is on the Michigan band wagon......
When the teams you've lost 2 out of 3 to are a combined 19-1, why is it amazing?
Pretty much this. Oregon losing last night helps our optics as it means we likely will stay in the top 10 on Tuesday (probably be at 10, will drop below Minnesota and probably Florida but not likely any further).
I have no doubt that OSU would obliterate either Minnesota or Wiscy in the B1GCCG.
Of course the CFP committee picks the final 4 and of course the other NY6 bowls have pre-determined tie ins (i.e Rose with Big 10/Pac 10, Sugar with SEC and Big 12, etc.).
Within those guidelines, the bowls and ESPN absolutely have input (like 99%) of which teams they want - they just don't sit back idly and wait to see who the committee assigns to them. Then, they let the committee have their few minutes of show and tell by announcing the CFP and NY6 bowls.
You don't think the Rose Bowl committee is going to sit back until Sunday morning 12/8 to see if the CFP committtee decided to choose MN or PSU, do you?
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A "few plays" from beating OSU! Put down what your smoking, son. If not for Clifford's injury, we would have been totally shut out.
That's what we are up against. Quit making stupid posts and learn something about football.
It works both ways, Genius!
And you predicted that before it happened, right? Guess PSU is over-rated, right? And you don't get to use "we" when talking about PSU!!!!
I think it comes down to:
OSU beats Michigan, giving Michigan 3 losses.
Wisconsin loses to either Minnesota or O$U, giving Wisconsin 3 losses.
Minnesota either loses to Wisconsin or O$U, giving them 2 losses.
When the final poll comes out 2 weeks from today, I firmly believe we’ll be higher than a 2 loss Minnesota.
So, who does the Rose Bowl want?
I say the Rose picks us, and we play the Oregon or The Utes.
OSU beats Michigan, giving Michigan 3 losses.
Wisconsin loses to either Minnesota or O$U, giving Wisconsin 3 losses.
Minnesota either loses to Wisconsin or O$U, giving them 2 losses.
When the final poll comes out 2 weeks from today, I firmly believe we’ll be higher than a 2 loss Minnesota.
So, who does the Rose Bowl want?
I say the Rose picks us, and we play the Oregon or The Utes.
If Minnesota is in the B1GCG, that clinches at worst the Rose for them
If Minnesota gets to 11-1 I think they are gonna go and perhaps deservingly so. Even with a loss to Ohio state they would be 11-2 to our 10-2 with the head to head advantage. We really need Wisconsin to beat them. Which is certainly possible
I think Wisky beats them. Minny really hasn't looked good since the first half of the PSU game. They're like the anti-Michigan in that regard.
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Bears repeating. From the CFP website:
"When not hosting semifinals, the Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls (the “contract bowls”) will make their own pairings outside the CFP arrangement. Generally, they will take the champion of their contracted conference; if that champion qualifies for the playoff, the bowl will then choose a replacement from that conference."
Bears repeating. From the CFP website:
"When not hosting semifinals, the Orange, Rose and Sugar bowls (the “contract bowls”) will make their own pairings outside the CFP arrangement. Generally, they will take the champion of their contracted conference; if that champion qualifies for the playoff, the bowl will then choose a replacement from that conference."
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