Bowl projections

[djm_psu_alum]

The issue with your logic is the Rose Bowl can pick whomever they please (assuming big ten champ to the playoff) regardless of CFP ranking. PSU being a spot or two ahead of Minnesota doesn't necessarily mean anything.

That said if you want as much separation as possible between PSU and Minnesota, the path to it is likely Minnesota losing to Wisconsin handily and Michigan keeping things relatively close with the buckeyes, and finally Wisconsin keeping things closeish in the ccg. Then your final big ten rankings end up being OSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin (Or Wisconsin, Michigan), Minnesota. I have a hard time believing the rose bowl is going to pick the fifth highest ranked big ten team over the second highest.

This whole "the Rose Bowl can pick whomever they please" stuff that is repeated is not exactly based in precedent. In theory, yes, the Rose Bowl is going to place some influence onto the CFP on a matchup when one or both conference champions are in the playoffs. However, there is zero history for the Rose Bowl not having the highest ranked team in the game since the playoff era.

In the CFP era, we only have 5 Rose Bowls to judge what they would do with their pick.

• 2014 - playoff site so can't consider
• 2015 - MSU was B10 champ went to playoff, Iowa was #5 and OSU was #7. Iowa went. Stanford went as Pac12 champ.
• 2016 - PSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff. UWash did go to the playoff and was replaced with the next highest team -- USC. Should note that USC finished 9-3 and Colorado finished 10-3 with a loss in the Pac12 champ game. USC did beat Colorado earlier in the season.
• 2017 - playoff site so can't consider
• 2018 - OSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff. UWash went as Pac12 champ.

 

[ryoder1]

We played A&M in the Alamo in 2007 Alamo Bowl (Morelli's last game--Clark played in spots which showed a preview of what would happen the following year).

Ah, 2007, the quintessential late Paterno era year.

 

[fastlax16]

This whole "the Rose Bowl can pick whomever they please" stuff that is repeated is not exactly based in precedent. In theory, yes, the Rose Bowl is going to place some influence onto the CFP on a matchup when one or both conference champions are in the playoffs. However, there is zero history for the Rose Bowl not having the highest ranked team in the game since the playoff era.

In the CFP era, we only have 5 Rose Bowls to judge what they would do with their pick.

• 2014 - playoff site so can't consider
• 2015 - MSU was B10 champ went to playoff, Iowa was #5 and OSU was #7. Iowa went. Stanford went as Pac12 champ.
• 2016 - PSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff. UWash did go to the playoff and was replaced with the next highest team -- USC. Should note that USC finished 9-3 and Colorado finished 10-3 with a loss in the Pac12 champ game. USC did beat Colorado earlier in the season.
• 2017 - playoff site so can't consider
• 2018 - OSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff. UWash went as Pac12 champ.

So there have only been two instances where they've had to replace a pac 12/big 1 champ during the cfp.

In one the higher ranked team didn't play the lower ranked team but had a better regular season record (undefeated vs one loss) and a longer rose bowl drought (25 years vs 5 years).

In the other the higher ranked team had the h2h win as well.

They've never had a scenario where they've had to pick between two teams with the same record, one with the h2h and one with the higher ranking.

 

[fastlax16]

I don't understand the logic in some of the posted scenarios. I think we should be rooting for OSU to beat Michigan giving them 3 losses. Minny to beat Wisconsin giving them 3 losses. Then OSU crushes Minny 62 - 10 in the BIG championship game. That way we will certainly be rated ahead of Minny and will get the Rose Bowl bid based on our performance against Ohio State compared to Minny's performance against Ohio State. What am I missing?

Getting Minnesota behind us sooner rather than later. We were already ranked ahead of Minnesota when we both had 1 loss. Minnesota dropping the game to Wisconsin (hopefully by a couple scores) likely puts them behind PSU and Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan if they keep it close with OSU, with no games left to make up the difference. Also unlikely they'd jump ahead of Wisconsin after the champ game unless the outcome is worse than the first time the badgers played the buckeyes.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

So there have only been two instances where they've had to replace a pac 12/big 1 champ during the cfp.

In one the higher ranked team didn't play the lower ranked team but had a better regular season record (undefeated vs one loss) and a longer rose bowl drought (25 years vs 5 years).

In the other the higher ranked team had the h2h win as well.

They've never had a scenario where they've had to pick between two teams with the same record, one with the h2h and one with the higher ranking.

To your first comment, yes, Iowa was also ranked #4, MSU was #5, and OSU was ranked #6 after the regular season. When MSU beat Iowa, they switched spots and OSU dropped a spot (Stanford jumped them after wining the Pac12 championship). I doubt the Rose Bowl draft had any effect in this determination.

To your second, it would be my opinion that Colorado got a little screwed. They were #8 after the regular season. USC was #11. Colorado lost to UWash (albeit by 31) and dropped 2 spots and USC went up 2 spots while being idle. Colorado was a division champ but lost @ USC by 4 early in the season. They had never been to a Rose Bowl game. A strong case could have been made for them to have been in the Rose Bowl game vs PSU. I'm not sure that makes an argument for or against PSU or Minnesota in the Rose but it is interesting.

 

[fastlax16]

To your first comment, yes, Iowa was also ranked #4, MSU was #5, and OSU was ranked #6 after the regular season. When MSU beat Iowa, they switched spots and OSU dropped a spot (Stanford jumped them after wining the Pac12 championship). I doubt the Rose Bowl draft had any effect in this determination.

To your second, it would be my opinion that Colorado got a little screwed. They were #8 after the regular season. USC was #11. Colorado lost to UWash (albeit by 31) and dropped 2 spots and USC went up 2 spots while being idle. Colorado was a division champ but lost @ USC by 4 early in the season. They had never been to a Rose Bowl game. A strong case could have been made for them to have been in the Rose Bowl game vs PSU. I'm not sure that makes an argument for or against PSU or Minnesota in the Rose but it is interesting.

To your second point, I think its been proven multiple times you are better off not making your conference championship game vs making it and losing (OSU 2016 is another example, Bama 2017). Teams get penalized for losing but don't get penalized for sitting at home.

Politics is the other issue. Based on what we saw out of Jim in 2016, the conference is just not going to go to bat for PSU. If anything they'd push the rose bowl to take Minnesota.

 

[psuno1]

To your first comment, yes, Iowa was also ranked #4, MSU was #5, and OSU was ranked #6 after the regular season. When MSU beat Iowa, they switched spots and OSU dropped a spot (Stanford jumped them after wining the Pac12 championship). I doubt the Rose Bowl draft had any effect in this determination.

To your second, it would be my opinion that Colorado got a little screwed. They were #8 after the regular season. USC was #11. Colorado lost to UWash (albeit by 31) and dropped 2 spots and USC went up 2 spots while being idle. Colorado was a division champ but lost @ USC by 4 early in the season. They had never been to a Rose Bowl game. A strong case could have been made for them to have been in the Rose Bowl game vs PSU. I'm not sure that makes an argument for or against PSU or Minnesota in the Rose but it is interesting.

Usc vs Penn State bigger rating on Tv than Colorado vs Penn State. Oregon vs Penn State bigger rating than Oregon vs Minny we will see if things fall into place for PSU to Rose Bowl- Outback vs A%M would blow.

 

[Art]

With the sole purpose of maximizing profits?

With the sole purpose of keeping ESPn, which has grossly overpaid for the CFP suite, happy, which I guess is the same thing.

 

[fairfaxlion2]

Ah, 2007, the quintessential late Paterno era year.

During his last 15 years, 4 out of every 5 seasons were exactly like that one.

Although 2007 was legendary for the Michigan-Illinois sequence. Probably the most horrendous two week coaching stretch we have ever witnessed.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

To your second point, I think its been proven multiple times you are better off not making your conference championship game vs making it and losing (OSU 2016 is another example, Bama 2017). Teams get penalized for losing but don't get penalized for sitting at home.

Politics is the other issue. Based on what we saw out of Jim in 2016, the conference is just not going to go to bat for PSU. If anything they'd push the rose bowl to take Minnesota.

I think missing the conference champ game does work out (at times) for the playoffs.

I agree that the B10 is not going to go to bat for PSU over Minnesota. At best, they should stay neutral but I expect them to push Minnesota (if they actually do anything).

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Usc vs Penn State bigger rating on Tv than Colorado vs Penn State. Oregon vs Penn State bigger rating than Oregon vs Minny we will see if things fall into place for PSU to Rose Bowl- Outback vs A%M would blow.

I agree with you. The PSU-USC Rose Bowl was the most heavily watched non-playoff game during the CFP era. But it is the Rose Bowl--so its going to sell out and get great ratings every year. An Oregon-Minnesota game will be no different. Will it get great ratings? Sure but probably not amazing ratings like USC-PSU.

The noon game of PSU vs Minnesota was the 2nd highest rated noon game all season with a 4.3 (Texas v Oklahoma was a 4.5). It was even higher than the Wisc v OSU game. Was that because PSU is a national brand or people to see if Minnesota was for real? Maybe a bit of both.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

During his last 15 years, 4 out of every 5 seasons were exactly like that one.

Although 2007 was legendary for the Michigan-Illinois sequence. Probably the most horrendous two week coaching stretch we have ever witnessed.

The 3rd/4th quarter coaching vs OSU in 2018 and the following week vs MSU was a pretty atrocious bit of coaching.

 

[ryoder1]

During his last 15 years, 4 out of every 5 seasons were exactly like that one.

Although 2007 was legendary for the Michigan-Illinois sequence. Probably the most horrendous two week coaching stretch we have ever witnessed.

And throw in the obligatory loss to OSU that looked like varsity against jv.

The scUM game that year was brutal. A scUM team that was clearly beatable and we were abysmal with Morelli at the helm and the genius OC tandem of Jay Paterno and Galen Hall.

 

[77 PSU]

Here is the protocol for the Rose Bowl in determining the teams that play straight from the Rose Bowl website.

"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible match-up for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical match-ups.

It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team"

As you can see if chalk holds, we beat Rutgres, Wisky beats Minn., OSU beats MI. and Wisky. We would be the highest ranked BIG team and most likely be selected. However the Rose Bowl committee could use the caveat to take Minn. Hard to say what "several spots" is. If we finish 8 and Minn. is 12 is that close enough for them to be considered.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Here is the protocol for the Rose Bowl in determining the teams that play straight from the Rose Bowl website.

"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible match-up for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical match-ups.

It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team"

As you can see if chalk holds, we beat Rutgres, Wisky beats Minn., OSU beats MI. and Wisky. We would be the highest ranked BIG team and most likely be selected. However the Rose Bowl committee could use the caveat to take Minn. Hard to say what "several spots" is. If we finish 8 and Minn. is 12 is that close enough for them to be considered.

Thanks for sharing this. You are right--that "several spots of each other" is somewhat (and probably purposefully vague). Outside of the rankings, the first two factors are against us (last time played and h2h). I doubt very much the Tournament of Roses will dig much deeper into strength of schedule, etc. We need to be really close to Minn in tonight's rankings.

For what its worth, in 2016, Colorado and USC were next to each other in rankings (USC @ #8 and Colorado @ #9). USC beat Colorado but Colorado won the south division and had a regular season record of 10-2 compared to USC's 9-3 but they got killed in the Pac12 champ game. Colorado had never been to a Rose Bowl game.

 

[PSUoh90]

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible match-up for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

If anything, PSU would be selected even if ranked slightly lower than Minnesota based on this information. Minny would be a much larger underdog to Oregon or Utah than PSU would.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

If anything, PSU would be selected even if ranked slightly lower than Minnesota based on this information. Minny would be a much larger underdog to Oregon or Utah than PSU would.

Respectfully, you seem to be cherry-picking the Rose Bowl stated rationale. The first two criteria after rankings is last time they played in the Rose Bowl and head to head. Match up is further down that list. Brand name and tv ratings might be a better argument but even then, it's the Rose Bowl. It is going to sell out and it's going to draw eye balls to the TVs. Minnesota is going to have a cinderella story of not being in Pasadena in 50+ years. That will make for good television.

 

[psuro]

Here is the protocol for the Rose Bowl in determining the teams that play straight from the Rose Bowl website.

"Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to go to the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference. There is, however, a caveat to that clause in the contract.

“If the next-highest ranked team is in a ‘cluster’ of teams, meaning there is another team or teams from the same conference ranked within several spots of each other, the Tournament of Roses will select the team from that cluster that will result in the best possible match-up for the Rose Bowl Game,” said Rose Bowl Management Committee Chair Scott Jenkins.

In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical match-ups.

It should be noted that it is the strong preference of the Tournament of Roses, Pac-12 and Big Ten Conferences, that the highest-ranked available team in each conference be selected as the replacement team"

As you can see if chalk holds, we beat Rutgres, Wisky beats Minn., OSU beats MI. and Wisky. We would be the highest ranked BIG team and most likely be selected. However the Rose Bowl committee could use the caveat to take Minn. Hard to say what "several spots" is. If we finish 8 and Minn. is 12 is that close enough for them to be considered.

I am guessing the "several spots" caveat is so the Rose Bowl committee takes into account potential revenue from fans attending the game/spending money and/or generating television interest.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I am guessing the "several spots" caveat is so the Rose Bowl committee takes into account potential revenue from fans attending the game/spending money and/or generating television interest.

I partially agree with respect to television interest. I've lived in Pasadena for the past 10 years and the game always sells out. Generating/spending money is a bit odd with the Rose Bowl. Yes, you see a slight uptick of people in the days prior to the game but with the parade, it's hard to decipher who's here for the game vs the parade. Also, people tend to stay outside of Pasadena so again, revenue is somewhat hard to capture.

The game itself always sells out and always gets good to great ratings.

 

[LionRange]

I partially agree with respect to television interest. I've lived in Pasadena for the past 10 years and the game always sells out. Generating/spending money is a bit odd with the Rose Bowl. Yes, you see a slight uptick of people in the days prior to the game but with the parade, it's hard to decipher who's here for the game vs the parade. Also, people tend to stay outside of Pasadena so again, revenue is somewhat hard to capture.

The game itself always sells out and always gets good to great ratings.

Say Utah wins the Pac-12 and gets the rose bowl due to being left out of playoffs (possible)

Is Utah VS Minnesota really going to draw in great ratings ? I would be skeptical. Typically the rose bowl has at least one popular or somewhat popular team to draw people in.

Utah Vs Minnesota makes that Stanford Vs Iowa matchup from a few years back look like a national championship in comparison

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Say Utah wins the Pac-12 and gets the rose bowl due to being left out of playoffs (possible)

Is Utah VS Minnesota really going to draw in great ratings ? I would be skeptical. Typically the rose bowl has at least one popular or somewhat popular team to draw people in.

Utah Vs Minnesota makes that Stanford Vs Iowa matchup from a few years back look like a national championship in comparison

I don't disagree that the ratings would be down with that matchup--even an Oregon v Minn matchup since most of the east coast is probably not up late to see Oregon play, except for that Auburn v Oregon game at the beginning of the season.

However, the ratings are an ESPN issue not a Tournament of Roses issue. The Rose Bowl will sell out, sponsors will pay up, and merchandise will be sold. The Tournament of Rose's folks are in this for the long haul so they know one low ratings game doesn't impact their bottom line over the long run. I've been to plenty of events where these Tournament of Roses folks are and that's how they see it.

 

[Art]

I don't disagree that the ratings would be down with that matchup--even an Oregon v Minn matchup since most of the east coast is probably not up late to see Oregon play, except for that Auburn v Oregon game at the beginning of the season.

However, the ratings are an ESPN issue not a Tournament of Roses issue. The Rose Bowl will sell out, sponsors will pay up, and merchandise will be sold. The Tournament of Rose's folks are in this for the long haul so they know one low ratings game doesn't impact their bottom line over the long run. I've been to plenty of events where these Tournament of Roses folks are and that's how they see it.

Any ESPN issue is a Tournament of Roses issue. ESPN ain't payn' those folks $80mm p.a. for lousy TV ratings they will certainly become a point of contention in future contract negotiations.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Any ESPN issue is a Tournament of Roses issue. ESPN ain't payn' those folks $80mm p.a. for lousy TV ratings they will certainly become a point of contention in future contract negotiations.

These bowl deals are over several years so sure, if the ratings are in the tank for 3,4, or 5 years, I'm sure ESPN will put some pressure but one year would be treated as an aberration.

 

[Art]

These bowl deals are over several years so sure, if the ratings are in the tank for 3,4, or 5 years, I'm sure ESPN will put some pressure but one year would be treated as an aberration.

Except that the 2016 and 2017 games were ratings dogs. Not sure that they can afford another "aberration."

 

[Lane]

Except that the 2016 and 2017 games were ratings dogs. Not sure that they can afford another "aberration."

The PSU-USC Rose Bowl was a dog?

 

[Art]

The PSU-USC Rose Bowl was a dog?

Second-lowest ratings for the Rose Bowl at the time.

 

[aquapong]

Wow with us remaining ahead of Florida, the Orange Bowl is still in play.

 

[Ski]

Absolutely, since us they blew out ND Indiana on the road and add OSU in this scenario. Meanwhile we limp into clubhouse losing two. Rose Bowl would be all over it to get Michigan there finally.

Yes, and don’t forget that scUM won the 2nd half against PSU, which seems more important than actually winning the game, if you listened to the pundits slobbering over them.

 

[LemonEars]

Wow with us remaining ahead of Florida, the Orange Bowl is still in play.

This morning ESPN has Minny in the Rose and us playing an ACC Cupcake (Vo Tech) in the Orange. If so we will have Rutgers on Saturday and then Rutgers 2 in the Orange. We would finish the season 11 - 2. Not bad.

 

[BrianS]

This morning ESPN has Minny in the Rose and us playing an ACC Cupcake (Vo Tech) in the Orange. If so we will have Rutgers on Saturday and then Rutgers 2 in the Orange. We would finish the season 11 - 2. Not bad.

Of course, that's this morning. If Wisconsin beats Minny on Saturday, then all that changes.
Our best bet with this thread, is to wait until Saturday night, when all the B10 games have been played. I would think, rather positively, that the bowl situation will be a lot more easier to figure out.

 

[kgilbert78]

Ah, 2007, the quintessential late Paterno era year.

I'd prefer to remember 2005 and 2008...

 

[kgilbert78]

This morning ESPN has Minny in the Rose and us playing an ACC Cupcake (Vo Tech) in the Orange. If so we will have Rutgers on Saturday and then Rutgers 2 in the Orange. We would finish the season 11 - 2. Not bad.

I do not count those games (well, Rutgers maybe) until they are played. Who thought PSU would lose to Kentucky last year?

 

[JJTopp99]

I do not count those games (well, Rutgers maybe) until they are played. Who thought PSU would lose to Kentucky last year?

I did (we did not match up well against them).

 

[interrobang]

Yes, and don’t forget that scUM won the 2nd half against PSU, which seems more important than actually winning the game, if you listened to the pundits slobbering over them.

Who knew that scoring 14 points in a half, with 7 of them coming on a very ref-assisted drive, would mean more to the media than actually winning the game