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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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A&M might be fun; haven't played them since Lavar was here. Would love a Rose Bowl but seems like it's a longshot.
Bowl projections
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A&M might be fun; haven't played them since Lavar was here. Would love a Rose Bowl but seems like it's a longshot.
I don't have enough hairs left that I can afford to split them.
Yes, there are "discussions" that surround the selection of teams to non-playoff bowls. The guys that contribute the big bucks to the revenue pool (ESPN, Orange, Rose, Sugar), speak the loudest. Those that don't (Cotton, Fiesta, Peach) have little to no input; they're just happy to be along for the ride.
Wasn’t ignoring it. Florida and penn state both have a shot at the cotton bowl slot. There are no tie ins for that bowl besides the highest ranking G5 team getting one of the slots. Most projections have Florida going to cotton instead of Penn state. Based on resume it’s absolutely ridiculous.
Florida best win. Auburn (8-3) other notable wins include Miami 6-5 and Tennessee 6-5
Penn state best win: Michigan (9-2) other notable wins Iowa (8-3)
We also have wins over 7-4 Pitt and 7-4 Indiana both of which could go 8-4
Quality of losses between penn state and Florida are similar . So therefore if committee ranks Florida ahead they are simply incompetent and or biased towards SEC to an absurd degree
I think A&M will be 7-5 but hey, the CBS projection fo Michigan is a 6-6 Mississippi State
Baylor/Oklahoma would also be in the running for that Cotton Bowl slot, the loser of the B12 Champ game would be 11-2 and the Cotton Bowl is in both of their backyards.
You are right about the difference between Florida and Penn State though no one else around the country seems to see it. If for some reason, the CFP committee sees the light (and facts) and we stay above Florida in this week's rankings, we should stay above them in the final rankings. We were three spots ahead of them. If we drop two, great. If we drop below them in this week's rankings, there will be nothing, outside of them losing to FSU, that pushes us above them. So essentially, we'll know this week if its Cotton/Rose/Outback or just Rose/Outback as our possibilities.
We played A&M in the Alamo in 2007 Alamo Bowl (Morelli's last game--Clark played in spots which showed a preview of what would happen the following year).
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Thanks for the correction - I now recall watching very late at night in Germany.
I believe I've read that the Cotton Bowl doesn't HAVE to take a G5 team. Just like the Orange Bowl doesn't HAVE to take an ACC team if the best-available "affiliate" conference team (VT or Virginia) is ranked too low.
I think I also saw that the Orange can take Notre Dame as its "ACC" if ND is within a game of the ACC team, which they are.
Right now it looks like, assuming the favorites win:
- Sugar: Alabama vs Oklahoma
- Orange: VT vs Florida
- Rose: Utah vs Minnesota
- Cotton: Memphis?? Or whoever the hell they want...
In this case Penn State would almost definitely be the highest ranked team available, with Notre Dame right behind. I'd be alright if Memphis was ignored entirely and PSU played ND. That would be a good matchup, winnable game, and huge ratings.
Seems Penn State should be the prime candidate for the Cotton, and Florida should be in the Orange against VT/ND.
I think I also saw that the Orange can take Notre Dame as its "ACC" if ND is within a game of the ACC team, which they are.
Right now it looks like, assuming the favorites win:
- Sugar: Alabama vs Oklahoma
- Orange: VT vs Florida
- Rose: Utah vs Minnesota
- Cotton: Memphis?? Or whoever the hell they want...
In this case Penn State would almost definitely be the highest ranked team available, with Notre Dame right behind. I'd be alright if Memphis was ignored entirely and PSU played ND. That would be a good matchup, winnable game, and huge ratings.
Seems Penn State should be the prime candidate for the Cotton, and Florida should be in the Orange against VT/ND.
Hope that happens but have my doubts that things will work out for that Rose Bowl bid.
I'm a bit confused by your post. It's pretty well documented that a G5 team must go to the NY6 and given where the playoffs are (Peach/Fiesta), the only landing spot would be the Cotton. Respectfully, I think you are wrong or read something that is not correct.
As for the Orange, I've not heard anything about ND being able to fill in the ACC slot. Everything I've read is that is that the matchup is ACC champ (or ACC rep) vs highest ranked between ND/B10/SEC. I always found that odd since ND has a relationship with ACC. I'd be shocked if the ACC conference was okay with that stipulation with the Orange Bowl. Even if they did, that would only fill the "ACC" spot--not the other slot.
Finally, are you using Georgia and LSU are in the playoffs? If Georgia loses vs LSU in SEC champ game, wouldn't they slot into either Sugar or Orange? If so, then that would push Florida to the Cotton and knocking us out (if they are ranked higher than us).
those espn gurus know about as much about the selection process as your average BWI poster lol
I still have to figure out how this happens but here would be my choices:
CFP: LSU vs Alabama
CFP: Ohio State vs Clemson
Sugar: Oklahoma vs Georgia
Orange: VA Tech vs Florida
Rose: Minnesota vs Utah
Cotton: PENN STATE vs Memphis
CFP: LSU vs Alabama
CFP: Ohio State vs Clemson
Sugar: Oklahoma vs Georgia
Orange: VA Tech vs Florida
Rose: Minnesota vs Utah
Cotton: PENN STATE vs Memphis
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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To get here you would need:
- LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson win out.
- CFP likes one loss Bama over all other one loss teams (which would include Oklahoma, Utah, Memphis, Boise State, Appalachian State).
- Oklahoma beats Baylor.
- Utah beats Oregon.
- Memphis beats Cincinnati.
This also assumes Minnesota win over Wiscy and loss to Ohio State. So, you would have all these teams with 2 losses:
Penn State
Georgia
Notre Dame
Minnesota
Florida
Baylor
Best case for us to the Rose or any NY6 bowl is Minny losing to Wisconsin, and Wisconsin losing to OSU (right?).
I think.
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Probably need special fuel to fly into Kalifornia.
Just kidding ...not yet, but seriously the prices will not drop.
- I think actually LSU losing to Georgia in the SEC champ game would put both LSU and Georgia into playoff provided it is a close game. That would bump up all of the SEC teams a slot. It would put Alabama in the Sugar and Florida in the Orange (why they are ahead of us is based only in their affiliation with the SEC because there are no other metrics that put them ahead of us but it is what it is).
- That would open up the Cotton slot. However, the competition there would be the Utah/Oregon loser and Baylor/Oklahoma loser.
- If Oregon loses again, Utah would either go to the playoffs or Rose. I think a one-loss LSU would be more deserving since Utah's only good win would be vs Oregon (if that were to happen).
- If Baylor loses to Oklahoma, they should fall below us. If Oklahoma loses and finishes 11-2, I think they stay ahead of us and go to the Cotton. Either one would be attractive to the Cotton for a local audience.
- As for the Rose, I believe you are correct. It will really help if Wisc can bury Minn and OSU can do the same to Wisc.
We're across the country--that would be my guess. I live in Pasadena (so I'm really rooting for a Rose Bowl) and there are multiple airports to look at. Granted LAX would be the most obvious and largest since it gets the most flights. You could also look at Burbank (Southwest, Alaska are popular here), Long Beach (Southwest, and JetBlue are popular here). There is also Orange County/Anaheim which, based on traffic, could be the same driving distance to Pasadena as LAX. You could also look at San Diego which is a 1.5 to 2 hr drive to here.
Ah you're right I forgot LSU will likely beat Georgia, knocking them out of the CFP. That would just switch Georgia and Bama. Wouldn't affect Florida, they'd still be up for the Orange.
I can't find the bit about the Cotton not being REQUIRED to take a lowly ranked G5 team, could definitely be wrong. But here's hoping...
Regarding the Orange Bowl, I found this from College Football News
"ACC Bowl Ties, Affiliations
Notre Dame is eligible for any ACC bowl tie-in as long as it’s within one game of the team eligible for the slot.
Again, normally the top available ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl, but there’s no direct tie-in this year since it’s a College Football Playoff semifinal."
I would assume that applies to all the ACC bowls, including the Orange. Orange Bowl reps would prefer a Florida vs ND matchup over Florida vs VT.
So Schlabach presumes a 3 loss wisky ranked about 12th gets in over a 2 loss psu rated higher? He must believe the rematch with osu will go down to the final seconds. If osu romps, no way the RB will want wisky.
imo, of course
We can agree to disagree. "If" is just that. If, OSU didn't fumble three times they would have probably beaten us 49-0. Levis ignited this offense, something Clifford failed to do.
We can agree to disagree. "If" is just that. If, OSU didn't fumble three times they would have probably beaten us 49-0. Levis ignited this offense, something Clifford failed to do.
IMO if the B1G games play out with the favored teams winning, Penn State goes to the Rose ranked 7-9 in the CFP, depending on how others play out. Minnesota and Wisconsin end up 12/14 range.
Penn State will be looked at more favorably if the OSU-UM game turns into a laugher in OSU’s favor. Our game being 21-17 at the start of the fourth would be by far as close as anyone has kept it with OSU in that case.
Penn State will be looked at more favorably if the OSU-UM game turns into a laugher in OSU’s favor. Our game being 21-17 at the start of the fourth would be by far as close as anyone has kept it with OSU in that case.
Wouldn't it be like Michigan to ruin it for us if they win or lose on final possession?
Also, I imagine if we don't absolutely blow out Rutgers, there will be some in the media that will say PSU is regressing and push others (Minnesota) above us.
Very true about Rutgers, but they would also in that case have to look at how badly minny handled Rutgers west( Northwestern) 38-22 is a pretty abysmal result against one of the worst offenses in CFB history
Well two weeks ago he picked us for the Citrus which is impossible so I wouldn't put too much stock into what he has to say.So Schlabach presumes a 3 loss wisky ranked about 12th gets in over a 2 loss psu rated higher? He must believe the rematch with osu will go down to the final seconds. If osu romps, no way the RB will want wisky.
imo, of course
exactly. NY6 means six bowls, and 12 teams. Surely, PSU is one of the top 12 teams by any metric you want to use. I understand that not all the top 12 teams go, but still. Not that outlandish, for the reasons you just posted. One of a handful of teams to face 5 ranked opponents, one of a handful of teams to have wins over three ranked teams. And our losses are far from horrific (not like a loss to South Carolina at home, Kansas St, Arizona St, etc)
Defense causing turnovers is a pretty key part of winning football. Saying that if Ohio State didn't fumble the outcome would be different.....is akin to saying if the NCAA didn't approve Fields to be eligible the outcome would have been different.
NY6 means six bowls, and 12 teams. Surely, PSU is one of the top 12 teams
That's not how the math works ...
4 slots are taken by CFP teams - we are not one of them.
2 slots are taken in the Sugar Bowl by SEC and Big 12 - we are not one of them.
1 slot in the Rose Bowl by Pac 12 - we are not one of them.
1 slot by Group of 5 - we are not one of them.
1 slot in Orange Bowl by ACC team - we are not one of them.
So, we are competing for one of only 3 "open" slots with everyone else in the Power 5, including teams within our own conference and teams from the beloved SEC.
I don't understand the logic in some of the posted scenarios. I think we should be rooting for OSU to beat Michigan giving them 3 losses. Minny to beat Wisconsin giving them 3 losses. Then OSU crushes Minny 62 - 10 in the BIG championship game. That way we will certainly be rated ahead of Minny and will get the Rose Bowl bid based on our performance against Ohio State compared to Minny's performance against Ohio State. What am I missing?
IMHO, here are my issues with that logic:
- When Minnesota lost last week and we beat Indiana, we jumped them in the rankings. If they lose to Wisconsin and we beat Rutgers, we should jump them again.
- Tomorrow's CFP rankings should have Minnesota ahead of us. I don't necessarily agree with that but the fact is they will be ahead of us. If they beat Wisconsin and we beat Rutgers, they are likely to move more spots ahead of us. If they lose to Ohio State, regardless of score (unless its something crazy like 69-0), they may fall but not far enough to get below us. In that final Dec 7 CFP rankings, the committee might award them enough credit as a division champ to NOT drop them too far down as a way to ensure they get to the Rose Bowl.
- If you look at the previous 5 years of CFP rankings from the last regular season week to the final rankings after the conference championship games, one idle team tends not to jump another idle team so if we can get ahead of Minnesota on the Dec 3 rankings, we should stay ahead of them.
Agree. If the fumbles had been caused by fluke or wet handling I might think differently, but each fumble was caused by the defensive guy making a play that caused the fumble. It's what we're supposed to do and we did it very well.
More importantly, we won ALL the scrums by outhustling and outmuscling an admittedly more athletically gifted group of players (yes, the margin has narrowed considerably, but osu still outmans us). Causing a fumble is one thing.. getting it back is another. We got all the ones we caused, which is pretty damned good.
[While Wade kinda had his hand in on the Fields fumble, it was more Fields dropping it on his own. BTW, #2 for osu was angling toward our EZ in case one of our guys recovered and went the other way. We'd have had blockers, though.]
Had Fields not recovered his fumble it's like 28-25 (I'm presuming 2 pt conversion succeeds) and we're doing an onside kick.
Anyway, yes, if we don't make those plays, we're likely gettying mauled. But we did, and Levis ignited the offense and we nearly won an unwinnable game.
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Sure we can. But man do you have a black cloud over a pretty damn good football team! 49-0? Wow!!
The issue with your logic is the Rose Bowl can pick whomever they please (assuming big ten champ to the playoff) regardless of CFP ranking. PSU being a spot or two ahead of Minnesota doesn't necessarily mean anything.
That said if you want as much separation as possible between PSU and Minnesota, the path to it is likely Minnesota losing to Wisconsin handily and Michigan keeping things relatively close with the buckeyes, and finally Wisconsin keeping things closeish in the ccg. Then your final big ten rankings end up being OSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin (Or Wisconsin, Michigan), Minnesota. I have a hard time believing the rose bowl is going to pick the fifth highest ranked big ten team over the second highest.
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