Bowl projections
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Clifford made a heck of a play when he was knocked from game. We might have won the game outright should he have remained in. In any case, if Journey Brown catches the pass on three yard line and scores the rest of OSU’s wheels would likely have come off. So yes, a play or two away.
Agree. IMO, they could very easily lose to Okie St this weekend. The game is in Stillwater.
Agree. That is why I said in my earlier post that we need OSU to beat Michigan. IF Michigan beats OSU, then Michigan becomes the more attractive 10-2 B1G team for the Rose to take... IF they do not take MN.
We need OSU to give Michigan their 3rd loss on Saturday.
I think a 10-2 Minnesota vs a 10-2 Penn state is a good debate. Sure minny has head to head but they have no other wins of note. We will have multiple. And we will likely be ranked ahead I think. Wisconsin is out at 10-3 if they lose to OSU again.
So Rose is alive if Wisconsin wins against gophers
Alabama is almost a sure lock to the Orange right now, especially if LSU beats Georgia and OU wins the Big 12.
Cotton is in play, but it depends who they want Florida or us.
Bad thing about the cotton it looks like it will take the non-P5 team so my guess would be Memphis or Cincy. Imagine losing to that? I know we won’t lose to Memphis or Cincy. Just like we weren’t losing to an overrated Kentucky team.
Like said right after yesterday's game, we played OSU tough and that may get us the Rose Bowl bid. I hope Minny beats Wisconsin and then OSU obliterates Minny by like 55 - 3. That will give the Rose Bowl committee an excuse to pick us over Minny.
I wouldn’t trust the committee with Minny and PSU having same number of losses. Minny has a win over us. We want Wisky to beat Minny then get destroyed by OSU.
I'm afraid the RB committee , is going to want Minnesota because of the lengthy absence for them 61' or 62' i believe, with all things being close.
I agree completely. The Rose would love to choose either Minny or scUM over us so we need those scenarios to be stomped out.
I have become a big Luckeyes fan for the game on Sat.
They just pick the moment in time (now) where Minny is rated ahead of us so we are out of the Rose. Once Minny gets their 2nd loss against Wisky then the tide turns in our favor for the Rose.
PSU needs both of the following to happen in order to go to the Rose Bowl.
- Wisconsin to beat Minnesota then lose to OSU
- OSU to beat Michigan
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depends how bad Minnesota’s loss to osu is. I’m not sure the rose bowl will be inclined to pick a Minnesota team if they’re coming off a 30 point beat down in the champ game. But who knows.
Yeah that’s an interesting point, I would think the beatdown would need to be pretty massive though.
CBS Sports has us in the Rose.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...playing-their-way-into-the-new-years-six/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...playing-their-way-into-the-new-years-six/amp/
If you need to rely on a team to provide you a massive beat down you could do worse than needing it from the buckeyes.
Oklahoma has to beat Baylor
Utah has to beat Oregon
Minnesota has to lose
Michigan has to lose
First things first: in the CFP era, we only have 5 Rose Bowls to judge what they would do with their pick.
- 2014 - playoff site so can't consider
- 2015 - MSU was B10 champ went to playoff, Iowa was #5 and OSU was #7. Iowa went.
- 2016 - PSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff.
- 2017 - playoff site so can't consider
- 2018 - OSU was B10 champ went to Rose since they didn't get to the playoff.
I think there are a few things in our favor but several against us with the whole Rose Bowl and other NY6 bowl prospects.
For us:
- Strength of schedule is very good.
- 2 wins over two team rising in the rankings - Mich and Iowa
- 2 wins over two teams with good records - Indy and Pitt (assuming both can get to 8-4)
- A respectable loss to OSU. If they can win by 14+ vs Mich & blow out Wisc/Minn, our loss would be their closest
- Strength of schedule will drop due to Rutgers and other teams will have higher profile games/wins next week
- We'll be behind Minnesota, Florida, Mich in the CFP (likely) if the AP is any clue. We'll need to jump them all in the Dec 7 final CFP rankings to have a shot at the Rose and/or Orange/Cotton (with respect to Florida)
- 10+ loss to OSU.
- Loss a head2head to a Minn team that may/will also go 10-2
- Relatively recent appearance to Rose Bowl compared to Minn and Wisc (though they have been to 3 in the past 10 years)
- Where the CFP puts us after the respectable loss to OSU. I disagree with some on here and on PSU related twitter accounts (e.g. Kevin Horne). I don't think the CFP really likes us (except for that week 1 rankings). If they did, we would have been head of a one-loss Utah and then one-loss Oregon in the previous weeks. If we are close to Minn, Mich, and Wisc, that would be a good thing because we should gradually work our way ahead all of them as they lose (hopefully).
- Where we are vs another 2-loss team - Florida in the CFP rankings. Their best win is no way better than ours and our two losses are comparable to theirs. If we aren't ahead of them in this week's CFP, we can kiss the Orange good bye.
- Where we are vs Baylor and Oregon in the CFP rankings. We were 6 spots ahead of Baylor. They have one win vs a currently ranked team (Ok St). If we can stay ahead of them, we should stay ahead of them if/when they lose to Oklahoma. They could be in line for that at-large Cotton spot.
- The other contender for that Cotton at-large spot is the 2nd best team from Pac12. Utah has no wins vs any currently ranked teams and a mediocre strength of schedule. They will be at least 4-6 spots ahead of us in the CFP, if they lose vs Oregon, will they fall below those spots? If they beat Oregon, that gives Oregon 3 losses and they won't be a Cotton Bowl contender.
91% chance Ohio St beats Michigan
60% chance Wisconsin beats Minnesota
If you want Penn State in the Rose Bowl root for Minnesota to win a close one against Wisconsin because they 100% will get the score run up against them v. Ohio St. In the BTC. Wisconsin has a better chance of making it close with Ohio St.
60% chance Wisconsin beats Minnesota
If you want Penn State in the Rose Bowl root for Minnesota to win a close one against Wisconsin because they 100% will get the score run up against them v. Ohio St. In the BTC. Wisconsin has a better chance of making it close with Ohio St.
One other scenario for ya.
Say Bama loses to Auburn. Bama will finish with 0 ranked wins on the year and losses to the only ranked teams they have gone up against.
They wouldn’t deserve a NY6 slot by any reasonable metric. They would literally have nothing.
Florida and penn state should both be in over Bama if that happens. But that would rely on the committee having any integrity
Quite the opposite. If Minny makes the B1GCG, they're a lock for the Rose with a loss.
disagree. If osu boat races them I think there’s a good chance the rose bowl passes.
Correct. If these things happen .... 1. We beat Rutgers, 2. OSU beats Michigan, 3. Wiscy beats MN and 4. OSU beats Wiscy......
If all 4 of those things happen. In the final CFB Poll:
> Penn State finishes 10-2 and ranked around 8-10... (teams ahead of us will lose & drop)
> MN finishes 10-2 and ranked around 12-14....
> Wiscy finishes 10-3 and ranked around 12-14....
> Michigan finishes 9-3 and ranked around 14-15...
Then the Rose Bowl has THEIR choice. IMO, its comes down to Penn State of MN because they have the best records. I'd like the chances of the Rose Bowl defaulting to Penn State by simply saying "we'll take the highest ranked team" ..... gives them an easy out.
If OSU goes to the CFP the BIG is getting two more teams in the NY6 bowl games...happens every year and it'll happen again and if/when OSU gets into the CFP it would be a 2/3 loss Minny team or a 2/3 loss Wisc team and a 2 loss PSU team...the 3 loss team gets left out...PSU is in one of them...really hoping for an orange bowl slot vs..Va Tech or UVA just for bragging rights over family
You seem to understand something that many others on this board don't - that is, once the CFP committee has gone through their mental masturbation of determining which 4 teams they are going to "invite" to the CFP, they are done with the remaining bowl match-ups. Oh, there will be the dog and pony show of the Sunday selection show where they announce the CFP and NY6 matchups, but the reality is that once the final 4 are determined, it is the NY6 BOWL committees in conjunction with their conference partners and ESPN (because they are the TV network broadcasting the games) that will determine the matchups.
All of this analysis of SOS, top 25 wins, road wins, margin of loss, etc. disappears from further consideration. It is meaningless!! The bowl committee, the conferences, and ESPN determine what matchups they want within the usual constraints of conference champions, conference tie-ins, etc. Guess what factors will drive those decisions - of course - $$$$$. Where does money come into consideration? TV ratings - because higher TV ratings mean higher ad revenue rates that can be charged in future years which means more money for ESPN and more money for the conferences in future TV network agreements.
Let's take the Rose Bowl for example. Sometimes, part of the match up is not debatable such as Utah or Oregon winning the PAC 12 and being left out of the CFP. But what happens if Ohio State goes to the CFP and the Rose Bowl has to choose between a 2 loss MN or a 2 loss PSU? That might be influenced by the winner of the PAC 12. If it is Utah, they are not a very sexy national brand, so is the Rose Bowl and ESPN going to want a MN (also not a sexy national brand) matched up with Utah? Or, would the Rose Bowl and ESPN prefer better ratings with PSU against Utah?? So, if the Rose Bowl, the Big 10, and ESPN are all in agreement that PSU is the preferred choice, the final CFP rankings will magically have PSU ranked ahead of MN by a spot or two.
On the other hand, Oregon is a national brand (at least much more than Utah). So, if Oregon is in the Rose Bowl, perhaps the Big10 pushes to send MN instead of PSU. From the Big 10's perspective, isn't it better for the conference's brand to have as many different teams on the national stage as possible? Wouldn't it help prop up the conference's brand to have a representative from EACH division in the NY6? The Rose Bowl and ESPN could probably live with MN as the "Cinderella" story since they already have national brand in Oregon on the other sideline. Obviously, that decision could be justified by the same record (10-2) and the head to head win by MN over PSU. So, if that is the decision that is made by the bowl, the Big 10, and ESPN, the final CFP ratings will magically show PSU as one position higher than MN.
Bottom line - all this hocus pocus of SOS, top 25 wins, etc, is out the window when the non CFP bowls decide who they want in their game.
Not entirely. The Committee does select teams for the Peach, Fiesta, and Cotton bowls when those games are not in the playoff rotation.
A Bowl is a Bowl is a Bowl. If it's not for the National Championship it's an exhibition game. The last time I was at the Rose Bowl an undefeated Penn State played Oregon because we had to, and they gave Nebraska the National Title. I don't really care which Bowl we play in.
Jan. 1, 1995. No. 2 Penn State 38, No. 12 Oregon 20
Considered by many to be the best Penn State team ever, the 1994-95 Lions rolled into their showdown with Oregon with a head of steam at 11-0 and dreams of becoming national champs.
Filled with NFL talent like Kerry Collins, Ki-Jana Carter, Bobby Engram, Kyle Brady, Joe Jurevicius and Jeff Hartings, the Lions showcased why their offense was the definition of a juggernaut.
Having averaged 47.8 points per game in the regular season, the Lions offense didn’t skip a beat in Pasadena.
Carter took the opening play of the Lions’ first series to the house for 83 yards and a touchdown, setting the tone for a high-scoring affair. That play will forever go down in Penn State lore, and the two teams eventually combined for 58 points and nearly a thousand yards of total offense.
The game was tied 14-14 late in the third quarter, but things Carter broke things wide open when he ran for back-to-back scores to put his team ahead 28-14 entering the final quarter.
A field goal and another touchdown on the ground, this time by fullback Jon Witman, put the game out of reach for good, even though the Ducks scored a garbage time touchdown on a 3-yard run by Ricky Whittle.
Jan. 1, 1995. No. 2 Penn State 38, No. 12 Oregon 20
Considered by many to be the best Penn State team ever, the 1994-95 Lions rolled into their showdown with Oregon with a head of steam at 11-0 and dreams of becoming national champs.
Filled with NFL talent like Kerry Collins, Ki-Jana Carter, Bobby Engram, Kyle Brady, Joe Jurevicius and Jeff Hartings, the Lions showcased why their offense was the definition of a juggernaut.
Having averaged 47.8 points per game in the regular season, the Lions offense didn’t skip a beat in Pasadena.
Carter took the opening play of the Lions’ first series to the house for 83 yards and a touchdown, setting the tone for a high-scoring affair. That play will forever go down in Penn State lore, and the two teams eventually combined for 58 points and nearly a thousand yards of total offense.
The game was tied 14-14 late in the third quarter, but things Carter broke things wide open when he ran for back-to-back scores to put his team ahead 28-14 entering the final quarter.
A field goal and another touchdown on the ground, this time by fullback Jon Witman, put the game out of reach for good, even though the Ducks scored a garbage time touchdown on a 3-yard run by Ricky Whittle.
I think we are splitting hairs here. Yes, the "committee does select" ... but they do it in conjunction with conversations with the bowls and ESPN execs as to the most attractive matchups.
Again, you don't think those bowls sit around until the Sunday morning selection show to see who is assigned to their game ... without any input???
A
anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
Guest
You are ignoring the conference tie ins which reduce the number of at large selections this year because Fiesta and Peach are hosting the semis. There are two less open slots than other years in years Fiesta and Peach host. It is not just the next highest ranked team that gets the invite
So 8-5 Tennessee or 8-5 Aggies? Seriously ...they don't want to sell many tickets do they? I would rather play Baylor or Notre Dame or Wisconsin for that matter.
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