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Bubble Talk/Who to Root For (and against) for PSU's Chances

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Erial_Lion

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Nov 23, 2015
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Obviously, the most important thing is for us to win our game on Sunday, and our games in Chicago. But, things could end up being razor thin, so here are other games that will impact our changes of dancing (I'll add in the games that matter every day from now until the season is over)...everything is in chronological order, with Pomeroy's chances of the game going our way in parenthesis.

Saturday, 3/4
  • 12:00pm - Furman (78%) vs Mercer - SoCon Quarterfinal - Furman is our best non-conference win. We want them to win the SoCon to keep improving their NET, and give us another win over the field. KenPom gives them a 43.1% chance of winning the tourney.
  • 2:00pm - Tennessee (60%) at Auburn - Auburn really creeping towards the bubble. If they win this one, lock them in, but a loss here and a loss in their first game in the SEC Tourney and it gets interesting.
  • 2:00pm - Kansas St (39%) at West Virginia - one of the biggest games of the weekend for us. Another loss, and things get very difficult for West Virginia, to the point that they might have to beat Kansas or Texas in the Big 12 quarters to make it in.
  • 4:00pm - Stanford (25%) at Oregon - Not that big of a game, but Oregon is on the outer fringes of the bubble and a loss here can kill any at-large chance.
  • 5:00pm - UNLV (22%) at Nevada - Nevada is pretty heavily favored here, but they are a little bit ahead of us in the pecking order and a loss at home to UNLV would put a dent in their chances.
  • 6:00pm - Miami (70%) vs Pitt - This game isn't important by itself, but a loss here coupled with a loss in Pitt's first ACC game, and things could get more interesting (still, their floor is almost certainly Dayton, but it would help our chances of passing them with a few more wins). They are probably the team that I'm least bullish on compared to other people doing bracketology (they ran up a lot of wins against crap ACC teams). Plus, it's a chance to root against Pitt.
  • 6:00pm - Texas Tech (59%) vs Oklahoma St - The drawback of this one is that a Texas Tech win starts to bring them back into the picture...however, it's best to give Oklahoma St another loss and stay ahead of both of them.
  • 6:30pm - Duke (42%) at North Carolina - another massive one for us. Another loss by NC, and they'd really need to make a good run in the ACC tourney. However, a win gives them their second good win of the year, and their chances really start to increase.
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (91%) vs North Dakota - Quarterfinal of the Summit Tournament. We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:00pm - Notre Dame (16%) at Clemson - lower impact game, as Clemson is still on the outer edges of the bubble. However, a loss here can close the door on their at-large chances.
  • 8:30pm - Vanderbilt (50%) vs Mississippi St - relatively big impact as Mississippi St is right there with us in fighting for the last few spots...a Vandy win does start to bring them back into the picture, but they'd need to make a nice run in the SEC tourney still. Much better to give Mississippi St another loss.
  • 9:00pm - Boise St (38%) at Utah St - Tough one, as a loss for Boise brings them back to the pack a bit and starts to make things interesting for them. However, I think the best case is for Utah St to take the loss so that we don't end up with both of these teams ahead of us.
  • 11:00pm - USC (70%) vs Arizona St - Basically could use the exact same write-up as the last one. A USC loss and things really start to bunch up. I'd rather USC wins to stay ahead of us, while Arizona St drops another one to stay clearly behind us for now.
Bonus non-bubble games with PSU interest - Jim Ferry's UMBC squad plays Binghamton in the AEC Quarters at 1pm, while Danny Earl's Chattanooga team meets up with Samford in the SoCon quarters at 6pm
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Obviously, the most important thing is for us to win our game on Sunday, and our games in Chicago. But, things could end up being razor thin, so here are other games that will impact our changes of dancing (I'll add in the games that matter every day from now until the season is over)...everything is in chronological order, with Pomeroy's chances of the game going our way in parenthesis.

Saturday, 3/4
  • 12:00pm - Furman (78%) vs Mercer - SoCon Quarterfinal - Furman is our best non-conference win. We want them to win the SoCon to keep improving their NET, and give us another win over the field. KenPom gives them a 43.1% chance of winning the tourney.
  • 2:00pm - Tennessee (60%) at Auburn - Auburn really creeping towards the bubble. If they win this one, lock them in, but a loss here and a loss in their first game in the SEC Tourney and it gets interesting.
  • 2:00pm - Kansas St (39%) at West Virginia - one of the biggest games of the weekend for us. Another loss, and things get very difficult for West Virginia, to the point that they might have to beat Kansas or Texas in the Big 12 quarters to make it in.
  • 4:00pm - Stanford (75%) at Oregon - Not that big of a game, but Oregon is on the outer fringes of the bubble and a loss here can kill any at-large chance.
  • 5:00pm - UNLV (22%) at Nevada - Nevada is pretty heavily favored here, but they are a little bit ahead of us in the pecking order and a loss at home to UNLV would put a dent in their chances.
  • 6:00pm - Miami (70%) vs Pitt - This game isn't important by itself, but a loss here coupled with a loss in Pitt's first ACC game, and things could get more interesting (still, their floor is almost certainly Dayton, but it would help our chances of passing them with a few more wins). They are probably the team that I'm least bullish on compared to other people doing bracketology (they ran up a lot of wins against crap ACC teams). Plus, it's a chance to root against Pitt.
  • 6:00pm - Texas Tech (59%) vs Oklahoma St - The drawback of this one is that a Texas Tech win starts to bring them back into the picture...however, it's best to give Oklahoma St another loss and stay ahead of both of them.
  • 6:30pm - Duke (42%) at North Carolina - another massive one for us. Another loss by NC, and they'd really need to make a good run in the ACC tourney. However, a win gives them their second good win of the year, and their chances really start to increase.
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (91%) vs North Dakota - Quarterfinal of the Summit Tournament. We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:00pm - Notre Dame (16%) at Clemson - lower impact game, as Clemson is still on the outer edges of the bubble. However, a loss here can close the door on their at-large chances.
  • 8:30pm - Vanderbilt (50%) vs Mississippi St - relatively big impact as Mississippi St is right there with us in fighting for the last few spots...a Vandy win does start to bring them back into the picture, but they'd need to make a nice run in the SEC tourney still. Much better to give Mississippi St another loss.
  • 9:00pm - Boise St (38%) at Utah St - Tough one, as a loss for Boise brings them back to the pack a bit and starts to make things interesting for them. However, I think the best case is for Utah St to take the loss so that we don't end up with both of these teams ahead of us.
  • 11:00pm - USC (70%) vs Arizona St - Basically could use the exact same write-up as the last one. A USC loss and things really start to bunch up. I'd rather USC wins to stay ahead of us, while Arizona St drops another one to stay clearly behind us for now.
Bonus non-bubble games with PSU interest - Jim Ferry's UMBC squad plays Binghamton in the AEC Quarters at 1pm, while Danny Earl's Chattanooga team meets up with Samford in the SoCon quarters at 6pm
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting this together, Erial. Greatly appreciated!
 
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Given that our game isn't til tomorrow, the 76ers are out West and the Flyers suck, I had cleaned my weekend to chores: Wal Mart, Ross' to buy a dress for a 4 year olds birthday party who is the child of 2 former students, wash the cars, prep/spray the beds for the landscaper to mulch tomorrow morning. Probably watch a chick flick with my bride, attend said party.

Now I've got something to engage my brain in! Duke vs UNC is something my bride would watch as her godaughter went to Carolina. Tough to root for Duke but will follow the script.

THANK YOU for turning an empty day into games I can care about! We need to do our part tomorrow. The game in College Park was there to be had. Need Myles to bring it like he did on that evening. Final home game vs the school down the road from your high school that didn't want you. Maybe a game winning 3 for the W and tournament? (eventhough we would rather have 4 or 5 guys other than him shooting it right now). Fairy tale stuff.

Go State!
 
Erial_Lion said:
Obviously, the most important thing is for us to win our game on Sunday, and our games in Chicago. But, things could end up being razor thin, so here are other games that will impact our changes of dancing (I'll add in the games that matter every day from now until the season is over)...everything is in chronological order, with Pomeroy's chances of the game going our way in parenthesis.

Saturday, 3/4
  • 12:00pm - Furman (78%) vs Mercer - SoCon Quarterfinal - Furman is our best non-conference win. We want them to win the SoCon to keep improving their NET, and give us another win over the field. KenPom gives them a 43.1% chance of winning the tourney.
  • 2:00pm - Tennessee (60%) at Auburn - Auburn really creeping towards the bubble. If they win this one, lock them in, but a loss here and a loss in their first game in the SEC Tourney and it gets interesting.
  • 2:00pm - Kansas St (39%) at West Virginia - one of the biggest games of the weekend for us. Another loss, and things get very difficult for West Virginia, to the point that they might have to beat Kansas or Texas in the Big 12 quarters to make it in.
  • 4:00pm - Stanford (75%) at Oregon - Not that big of a game, but Oregon is on the outer fringes of the bubble and a loss here can kill any at-large chance.
  • 5:00pm - UNLV (22%) at Nevada - Nevada is pretty heavily favored here, but they are a little bit ahead of us in the pecking order and a loss at home to UNLV would put a dent in their chances.
  • 6:00pm - Miami (70%) vs Pitt - This game isn't important by itself, but a loss here coupled with a loss in Pitt's first ACC game, and things could get more interesting (still, their floor is almost certainly Dayton, but it would help our chances of passing them with a few more wins). They are probably the team that I'm least bullish on compared to other people doing bracketology (they ran up a lot of wins against crap ACC teams). Plus, it's a chance to root against Pitt.
  • 6:00pm - Texas Tech (59%) vs Oklahoma St - The drawback of this one is that a Texas Tech win starts to bring them back into the picture...however, it's best to give Oklahoma St another loss and stay ahead of both of them.
  • 6:30pm - Duke (42%) at North Carolina - another massive one for us. Another loss by NC, and they'd really need to make a good run in the ACC tourney. However, a win gives them their second good win of the year, and their chances really start to increase.
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (91%) vs North Dakota - Quarterfinal of the Summit Tournament. We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:00pm - Notre Dame (16%) at Clemson - lower impact game, as Clemson is still on the outer edges of the bubble. However, a loss here can close the door on their at-large chances.
  • 8:30pm - Vanderbilt (50%) vs Mississippi St - relatively big impact as Mississippi St is right there with us in fighting for the last few spots...a Vandy win does start to bring them back into the picture, but they'd need to make a nice run in the SEC tourney still. Much better to give Mississippi St another loss.
  • 9:00pm - Boise St (38%) at Utah St - Tough one, as a loss for Boise brings them back to the pack a bit and starts to make things interesting for them. However, I think the best case is for Utah St to take the loss so that we don't end up with both of these teams ahead of us.
  • 11:00pm - USC (70%) vs Arizona St - Basically could use the exact same write-up as the last one. A USC loss and things really start to bunch up. I'd rather USC wins to stay ahead of us, while Arizona St drops another one to stay clearly behind us for now.
Bonus non-bubble games with PSU interest - Jim Ferry's UMBC squad plays Binghamton in the AEC Quarters at 1pm, while Danny Earl's Chattanooga team meets up with Samford in the SoCon quarters at 6pm
Click to expand...
Excellent work.. Illustrates that much of the discussion of the last several weeks is very inconclusive. People were always posting win with such certainty this and we are in or loss that and we are out. …but so much depends on other teams. A top five team gets upset in the first round of a conference tournament can’t win the automatic berth but will still get an invite. Some bottom feeder gets hot and wins the tournament gets the automatic bid meaning one less bid for bubble teams to get.

We won’t know until we know. And then we can argue as to why.
 
Erial_Lion said:
Obviously, the most important thing is for us to win our game on Sunday, and our games in Chicago. But, things could end up being razor thin, so here are other games that will impact our changes of dancing (I'll add in the games that matter every day from now until the season is over)...everything is in chronological order, with Pomeroy's chances of the game going our way in parenthesis.

Saturday, 3/4
  • 12:00pm - Furman (78%) vs Mercer - SoCon Quarterfinal - Furman is our best non-conference win. We want them to win the SoCon to keep improving their NET, and give us another win over the field. KenPom gives them a 43.1% chance of winning the tourney.
  • 2:00pm - Tennessee (60%) at Auburn - Auburn really creeping towards the bubble. If they win this one, lock them in, but a loss here and a loss in their first game in the SEC Tourney and it gets interesting.
  • 2:00pm - Kansas St (39%) at West Virginia - one of the biggest games of the weekend for us. Another loss, and things get very difficult for West Virginia, to the point that they might have to beat Kansas or Texas in the Big 12 quarters to make it in.
  • 4:00pm - Stanford (75%) at Oregon - Not that big of a game, but Oregon is on the outer fringes of the bubble and a loss here can kill any at-large chance.
  • 5:00pm - UNLV (22%) at Nevada - Nevada is pretty heavily favored here, but they are a little bit ahead of us in the pecking order and a loss at home to UNLV would put a dent in their chances.
  • 6:00pm - Miami (70%) vs Pitt - This game isn't important by itself, but a loss here coupled with a loss in Pitt's first ACC game, and things could get more interesting (still, their floor is almost certainly Dayton, but it would help our chances of passing them with a few more wins). They are probably the team that I'm least bullish on compared to other people doing bracketology (they ran up a lot of wins against crap ACC teams). Plus, it's a chance to root against Pitt.
  • 6:00pm - Texas Tech (59%) vs Oklahoma St - The drawback of this one is that a Texas Tech win starts to bring them back into the picture...however, it's best to give Oklahoma St another loss and stay ahead of both of them.
  • 6:30pm - Duke (42%) at North Carolina - another massive one for us. Another loss by NC, and they'd really need to make a good run in the ACC tourney. However, a win gives them their second good win of the year, and their chances really start to increase.
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (91%) vs North Dakota - Quarterfinal of the Summit Tournament. We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:00pm - Notre Dame (16%) at Clemson - lower impact game, as Clemson is still on the outer edges of the bubble. However, a loss here can close the door on their at-large chances.
  • 8:30pm - Vanderbilt (50%) vs Mississippi St - relatively big impact as Mississippi St is right there with us in fighting for the last few spots...a Vandy win does start to bring them back into the picture, but they'd need to make a nice run in the SEC tourney still. Much better to give Mississippi St another loss.
  • 9:00pm - Boise St (38%) at Utah St - Tough one, as a loss for Boise brings them back to the pack a bit and starts to make things interesting for them. However, I think the best case is for Utah St to take the loss so that we don't end up with both of these teams ahead of us.
  • 11:00pm - USC (70%) vs Arizona St - Basically could use the exact same write-up as the last one. A USC loss and things really start to bunch up. I'd rather USC wins to stay ahead of us, while Arizona St drops another one to stay clearly behind us for now.
Bonus non-bubble games with PSU interest - Jim Ferry's UMBC squad plays Binghamton in the AEC Quarters at 1pm, while Danny Earl's Chattanooga team meets up with Samford in the SoCon quarters at 6pm
Click to expand...
Excellent post.
 
Sign me up for this…

www.yahoo.com

How will the Big Ten's last weekend shake out?

Mar. 4—All 14 Big Ten teams will be in action this weekend with a slate of games that will have a significant impact on the league standings and conference tournament seeding. Beat writer Scott Richey breaks down all seven matchups in order to generate a potential schedule for next week in...
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These bubble teams change 100 times over the last few weeks of every season because there are so many variables involved. I don’t pay too much attention until we are in the conference tournament stage and it becomes an issue of win or you’re in the NIT.
 
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bison13 said:
Dukies with the w
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UNC now is 19-12 and 11-9 in the ACC, which on the surface is a better resume than PSU’s. Yet going into this game, Lunardi had PSU in his Last 4 In and UNC in his Last 4 Out. I guess I just don’t get it.
 
bcspsu said:
UNC now is 19-12 and 11-9 in the ACC, which on the surface is a better resume than PSU’s. Yet going into this game, Lunardi had PSU in 6-0his Last 4 In and UNC in his Last 4 Out. I guess I just don’t get it.
Click to expand...
North Carolina's resume is pretty weak (mostly because the ACC is very weak). They are severely lacking in quality wins. After tonight, their quad record is...

Quad 1: 1-9
Quad 2: 6-3
Quad 3: 7-0
Quad 4: 5-0

For reference, heading into today, our breakdown is...

Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 2: 4-5
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 6-0
 
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Erial_Lion said:
North Carolina's resume is pretty weak (mostly because the ACC is very weak). They are severely lacking in quality wins. After tonight, their quad record is...

Quad 1: 1-9
Quad 2: 6-3
Quad 3: 7-0
Quad 4: 5-0

For reference, heading into today, our breakdown is...

Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 2: 4-5
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 6-0
Click to expand...
Thanks for explaining. It’s just a damn shame that they lost the home games to Wisconsin and Rutgers, because it would be a done deal by now, especially with them winning four conference road games, which I did not expect. Oh well, last week, one of the BTN announcers said that Maryland is a different team on the road than at home.
 
bcspsu said:
Thanks for explaining. It’s just a damn shame that they lost the home games to Wisconsin and Rutgers, because it would be a done deal by now, especially with them winning four conference road games, which I did not expect. Oh well, last week, one of the BTN announcers said that Maryland is a different team on the road than at home.
Click to expand...
Maryland is 2-10 on the road and their two wins are over Minnesota and Louisville (who is 4-27 right now).

However, I don't buy into home/road splits too much...usually just "noise" on a small sample size.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Obviously, the most important thing is for us to win our game on Sunday, and our games in Chicago. But, things could end up being razor thin, so here are other games that will impact our changes of dancing (I'll add in the games that matter every day from now until the season is over)...everything is in chronological order, with Pomeroy's chances of the game going our way in parenthesis.

Saturday, 3/4
  • 12:00pm - Furman (78%) vs Mercer - SoCon Quarterfinal - Furman is our best non-conference win. We want them to win the SoCon to keep improving their NET, and give us another win over the field. KenPom gives them a 43.1% chance of winning the tourney.
  • 2:00pm - Tennessee (60%) at Auburn - Auburn really creeping towards the bubble. If they win this one, lock them in, but a loss here and a loss in their first game in the SEC Tourney and it gets interesting.
  • 2:00pm - Kansas St (39%) at West Virginia - one of the biggest games of the weekend for us. Another loss, and things get very difficult for West Virginia, to the point that they might have to beat Kansas or Texas in the Big 12 quarters to make it in.
  • 4:00pm - Stanford (25%) at Oregon - Not that big of a game, but Oregon is on the outer fringes of the bubble and a loss here can kill any at-large chance.
  • 5:00pm - UNLV (22%) at Nevada - Nevada is pretty heavily favored here, but they are a little bit ahead of us in the pecking order and a loss at home to UNLV would put a dent in their chances.
  • 6:00pm - Miami (70%) vs Pitt - This game isn't important by itself, but a loss here coupled with a loss in Pitt's first ACC game, and things could get more interesting (still, their floor is almost certainly Dayton, but it would help our chances of passing them with a few more wins). They are probably the team that I'm least bullish on compared to other people doing bracketology (they ran up a lot of wins against crap ACC teams). Plus, it's a chance to root against Pitt.
  • 6:00pm - Texas Tech (59%) vs Oklahoma St - The drawback of this one is that a Texas Tech win starts to bring them back into the picture...however, it's best to give Oklahoma St another loss and stay ahead of both of them.
  • 6:30pm - Duke (42%) at North Carolina - another massive one for us. Another loss by NC, and they'd really need to make a good run in the ACC tourney. However, a win gives them their second good win of the year, and their chances really start to increase.
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (91%) vs North Dakota - Quarterfinal of the Summit Tournament. We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:00pm - Notre Dame (16%) at Clemson - lower impact game, as Clemson is still on the outer edges of the bubble. However, a loss here can close the door on their at-large chances.
  • 8:30pm - Vanderbilt (50%) vs Mississippi St - relatively big impact as Mississippi St is right there with us in fighting for the last few spots...a Vandy win does start to bring them back into the picture, but they'd need to make a nice run in the SEC tourney still. Much better to give Mississippi St another loss.
  • 9:00pm - Boise St (38%) at Utah St - Tough one, as a loss for Boise brings them back to the pack a bit and starts to make things interesting for them. However, I think the best case is for Utah St to take the loss so that we don't end up with both of these teams ahead of us.
  • 11:00pm - USC (70%) vs Arizona St - Basically could use the exact same write-up as the last one. A USC loss and things really start to bunch up. I'd rather USC wins to stay ahead of us, while Arizona St drops another one to stay clearly behind us for now.
Bonus non-bubble games with PSU interest - Jim Ferry's UMBC squad plays Binghamton in the AEC Quarters at 1pm, while Danny Earl's Chattanooga team meets up with Samford in the SoCon quarters at 6pm
Click to expand...
7-6 on the Erial Lion eye chart today. Generally okay but at the end of the day PSU needs a W on Sunday.
 
USC barely hung on to put the finishing touches on a pretty good Saturday for us. Obviously, our game against Maryland (in which we're currently sitting as a 3.5 point favorite) is more important than the rest of these games combined. However, here are our other games of interest (again, with Pomeroy's chances of the result going our way)...

Sunday, 3/5
  • 2:00pm - Iowa (81%) vs Nebraska - This one only matters if we drop the game against Maryland, as we'd want Nebraska to lose so that we get a better seed and make our path in Chicago a little more manageable (and we'd need a nice run). But lets really hope that we don't care about this one.
  • 4:00pm - Furman (82%) vs Western Carolina - Furman is on to the semis of the SoCon tourney. Again, they are our best non-conference win, so we want them to win this tournament to give us another win over the field (and help our NET). Furman is the top seed, and the 2nd and 3rd seeds were both upset today (the 2nd seed was against Dan Earl's 7th seeded Chattanooga squad), so Furman's path got a bit easier.
  • 4:30pm - Indiana (66%) vs Michigan - Michigan is right in the thick of the bubble with us, while Indiana is very safely in. A Michigan loss puts them at 17-14 overall, and they'd need to win at least one in Chicago to have any chance (and very possibly another one as well).
  • 6:00pm - Stony Brook (5%) vs Charleston - Charleston plays in the quarters of the CAA tournament. This game is likely low impact, since even if Charleston gets to the CAA Championship game and loses, they are still probably on the wrong side of the bubble. However, should that loss be against Hofstra, it might bump them into strong consideration (so I guess we can root against Hofstra at noon since them winning the CAA is the only realistic path to two bids in this conference).
  • 7:30pm - Minnesota (27%) vs Wisconsin - Wisconsin is hanging right there on the bubble with us, and likely very slightly ahead of us. A loss in this one would put a big dent in their chances. This one would take on added importance if we lose too, since Wisconsin is another team that would pass us in the B1G Tournament seedings with a win (and a loss by us tomorrow).
  • 7:30pm - Northwestern (34%) vs Rutgers - Rutgers is in good shape if Selection Sunday were today...however a loss in this one and a poor showing in Chicago, and it becomes very interesting for them (two straight losses would likely do them in).
If I had to rank games in order of importance tomorrow, it would be our game, Minnesota-Wisconsin, Indiana-Michigan, and Northwestern-Rutgers.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
USC barely hung on to put the finishing touches on a pretty good Saturday for us. Obviously, our game against Maryland (in which we're currently sitting as a 3.5 point favorite) is more important than the rest of these games combined. However, here are our other games of interest (again, with Pomeroy's chances of the result going our way)...

Sunday, 3/5
  • 2:00pm - Iowa (81%) vs Nebraska - This one only matters if we drop the game against Maryland, as we'd want Nebraska to lose so that we get a better seed and make our path in Chicago a little more manageable (and we'd need a nice run). But lets really hope that we don't care about this one.
  • 4:00pm - Furman (82%) vs Western Carolina - Furman is on to the semis of the SoCon tourney. Again, they are our best non-conference win, so we want them to win this tournament to give us another win over the field (and help our NET). Furman is the top seed, and the 2nd and 3rd seeds were both upset today (the 2nd seed was against Dan Earl's 7th seeded Chattanooga squad), so Furman's path got a bit easier.
  • 4:30pm - Indiana (66%) vs Michigan - Michigan is right in the thick of the bubble with us, while Indiana is very safely in. A Michigan loss puts them at 17-14 overall, and they'd need to win at least one in Chicago to have any chance (and very possibly another one as well).
  • 6:00pm - Stony Brook (5%) vs Charleston - Charleston plays in the quarters of the CAA tournament. This game is likely low impact, since even if Charleston gets to the CAA Championship game and loses, they are still probably on the wrong side of the bubble. However, should that loss be against Hofstra, it might bump them into strong consideration (so I guess we can root against Hofstra at noon since them winning the CAA is the only realistic path to two bids in this conference).
  • 7:30pm - Minnesota (27%) vs Wisconsin - Wisconsin is hanging right there on the bubble with us, and likely very slightly ahead of us. A loss in this one would put a big dent in their chances. This one would take on added importance if we lose too, since Wisconsin is another team that would pass us in the B1G Tournament seedings with a win (and a loss by us tomorrow).
  • 7:30pm - Northwestern (34%) vs Rutgers - Rutgers is in good shape if Selection Sunday were today...however a loss in this one and a poor showing in Chicago, and it becomes very interesting for them (two straight losses would likely do them in).
If I had to rank games in order of importance tomorrow, it would be our game, Minnesota-Wisconsin, Indiana-Michigan, and Northwestern-Rutgers.
Click to expand...
Great insight as usual. Thanks Erial!
 
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Nebraska over Iowa. A change up in the seeding based off of our game and that one. More to come I think
 
bison13 said:
Nebraska over Iowa. A change up in the seeding based off of our game and that one. More to come I think
Click to expand...
Note that the Wisconsin/Minnesota game has no impact on the seedings at the top. So here is the breakdown of who we could play on Thursday based on the 4 scenarios of today's 2 other games remaining (Michigan at Indiana; Northwestern at Rutgers)...

Indiana/Rutgers - ILLINOIS (with Indiana as the 2 seed)
Indiana/Northwestern - ILLINOIS (with Northwestern as the 2 seed)
Michigan/Rutgers - NORTHWESTERN (with Michigan as the 2 seed)
Michigan/Northwestern - INDIANA (with Michigan as the 2 seed)

That second one is the dream scenario...give losses to Michigan and Rutgers, while giving us a very manageable road (though beating Illinois again would be a challenge). In the 3rd scenario, we'd likely be a small favorite over Northwestern. We'd likely be about a 1.5-2 point dog against Illinois, and a 2-3 point dog against Indiana.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Note that the Wisconsin/Minnesota game has no impact on the seedings at the top. So here is the breakdown of who we could play on Thursday based on the 4 scenarios of today's 2 other games remaining (Michigan at Indiana; Northwestern at Rutgers)...

Indiana/Rutgers - ILLINOIS (with Indiana as the 2 seed)
Indiana/Northwestern - ILLINOIS (with Northwestern as the 2 seed)
Michigan/Rutgers - NORTHWESTERN (with Michigan as the 2 seed)
Michigan/Northwestern - INDIANA (with Michigan as the 2 seed)
Click to expand...
I want Indiana to beat Michigan for the NCAA purposes, but I think personally I’d rather Penn State play Northwestern again in the Big Ten tournament.
 
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I don't like having to play Illinois again. Will be tough. We knew any game would be tough but this is difficult to win 3 in a row against a good team.
 
ryoder1 said:
I don't like having to play Illinois again. Will be tough. We knew any game would be tough but this is difficult to win 3 in a row against a good team.
Click to expand...
I like the matchup…Northwestern would be my first choice, but win on Thursday and we’ll hopefully get them anyway on Friday.

I’ve said before…for all the talk about how hard it is to beat a team 3 times, it’s even harder to beat a team that’s beaten you twice.

I’ve got us as a 1.5 point dog.
 
Erial_Lion said:
I like the matchup…Northwestern would be my first choice, but win on Thursday and we’ll hopefully get them anyway on Friday.

I’ve said before…for all the talk about how hard it is to beat a team 3 times, it’s even harder to beat a team that’s beaten you twice.

I’ve got us as a 1.5 point dog.
Click to expand...
If Rutgers loses tonight and it is looking that way then they lose to Michigan on Thursday are they out? Could be out which helps us but we did lose to them twice.

Also, maybe if we lose to Illinois we are not penalized much by the committee because we did beat them twice in the reg sesaon including a road win. Basically prioritizing regular season performance over BTT performance.
 
ryoder1 said:
If Rutgers loses tonight and it is looking that way then they lose to Michigan on Thursday are they out? Could be out which helps us but we did lose to them twice.

Also, maybe if we lose to Illinois we are not penalized much by the committee because we did beat them twice in the reg sesaon including a road win. Basically prioritizing regular season performance over BTT performance.
Click to expand...
Rutgers-Michigan looking more and more like an elimination game. Michigan definitely can't sustain another loss...Rutgers is in a little better position, but 18-14 with no wins of note in the non-conference, a bad NCSOS, and a few bad losses puts them in a pretty rough position. It entirely possible that if Michigan wins that game and then loses to Purdue, that both of them head to the NIT.

Wisconsin also with an interesting path of Ohio State and then Iowa. They probably need both of those, and they might be a small underdog against OSU on Wednesday night.
 
Sunday was a really good day for us. Results worked out well, we were given a bracket that I like in Chicago, and the other Big Ten bubble teams ended up with draws that aren't as favorable. Monday is a relatively slow one, but still some stuff to root for (with KenPom's changes of the game going our way)...

Monday, 3/6
  • 7:00pm - Furman (72%) vs Chattanooga - This is the Championship game of the SoCon (ESPN). Furman is our best non-conference win, so it would be nice for them to finish off their run and give us a win over a team in the field. However, tough to root against Chattanooga on a personal level as this is Dan Earl's first chance to lead a team to the dance. Sorry Dan, but I'd rather help our resume (though if Chattanooga pulls the upset, I'll also have reason to be happy).
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (83%) vs St Thomas - This is the semi of the Summit tourney. I'll just copy and paste from Saturday's write-up...We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:30pm - Towson (30%) vs Charleston - I'm torn on Charleston. I still fear that a loss to Hofstra in the Championship game puts them right on the bubble, so better to take a bad loss and knock them out. However, the perfect result would be having them win this tournament so there is no possibility of the CAA getting 2 bids.
  • 9:00pm - Saint Mary's (75%) vs BYU - The WCC is guaranteed two bids (St Mary's and Gonzaga), and anyone else winning it would be a bid stealer. This is the semifinal, so don't want to sweat BYU getting to the Championship game. Which brings us to...
  • 11:30pm - Gonzaga (85%) vs San Francisco - Again, no reason for San Fran to make the title game and make us sweat. Hoping Saint Mary's and Gonzaga both win, and then we get to watch a great game on Tuesday night.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Rutgers-Michigan looking more and more like an elimination game. Michigan definitely can't sustain another loss...Rutgers is in a little better position, but 18-14 with no wins of note in the non-conference, a bad NCSOS, and a few bad losses puts them in a pretty rough position. It entirely possible that if Michigan wins that game and then loses to Purdue, that both of them head to the NIT.

Wisconsin also with an interesting path of Ohio State and then Iowa. They probably need both of those, and they might be a small underdog against OSU on Wednesday night.
Click to expand...
Would like to see O$U beat Wisky then beat Iowa. Wisconsin is annoying and with them beating us twice (that is hard to write) we just want them to pile up losses. And Iowa with Franny need I say more?
 
Erial_Lion said:
Sunday was a really good day for us. Results worked out well, we were given a bracket that I like in Chicago, and the other Big Ten bubble teams ended up with draws that aren't as favorable. Monday is a relatively slow one, but still some stuff to root for (with KenPom's changes of the game going our way)...

Monday, 3/6
  • 7:00pm - Furman (72%) vs Chattanooga - This is the Championship game of the SoCon (ESPN). Furman is our best non-conference win, so it would be nice for them to finish off their run and give us a win over a team in the field. However, tough to root against Chattanooga on a personal level as this is Dan Earl's first chance to lead a team to the dance. Sorry Dan, but I'd rather help our resume (though if Chattanooga pulls the upset, I'll also have reason to be happy).
  • 7:00pm - Oral Roberts (83%) vs St Thomas - This is the semi of the Summit tourney. I'll just copy and paste from Saturday's write-up...We want Oral Roberts to win the tourney (Pomeroy gives them a 63.1% chance), and even if they don't, their chances of an at-large are low. If they lose, we want it to be early, but the safest bet is for them to just win the tourney so they aren't in the at-large picture.
  • 8:30pm - Towson (30%) vs Charleston - I'm torn on Charleston. I still fear that a loss to Hofstra in the Championship game puts them right on the bubble, so better to take a bad loss and knock them out. However, the perfect result would be having them win this tournament so there is no possibility of the CAA getting 2 bids.
  • 9:00pm - Saint Mary's (75%) vs BYU - The WCC is guaranteed two bids (St Mary's and Gonzaga), and anyone else winning it would be a bid stealer. This is the semifinal, so don't want to sweat BYU getting to the Championship game. Which brings us to...
  • 11:30pm - Gonzaga (85%) vs San Francisco - Again, no reason for San Fran to make the title game and make us sweat. Hoping Saint Mary's and Gonzaga both win, and then we get to watch a great game on Tuesday night.
Click to expand...
I think if Michigan and Rutgers go the NIT route then that bodes well for us regardless of our Illinois game result.
 
LandoComando said:
Same here
Someone please explain the delusion behind we don't need another win?
Click to expand...
We're the 4th to the last team in there...Jerry orders it so that the top "last team in" is the safest, and the bottom is on the cut line.

And explain the delusion behind the "there is no chance" or "the odds are zero" of us making it without a win on Thursday when we're obviously right in the mix. You're still not ready to admit that that odds are greater than zero, even if you think it's unlikely?
 
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