Bubble Talk/Who to Root For (and against) for PSU's Chances
- Thread starter Erial_Lion
- Start date
I fear that you will be right. I also don't understand the inclusion of Wisconsin as a Last 4 In, as they seem to lose almost every game they play except for when they play PSU; as I've said before, PSU's home loss to that team probably is going to come back to haunt them. The home loss to Rutgers also is becoming more and more ridiculous because that team can't beat anybody right now either.
Though we very well may miss out, he’ll never be correct that there is “zero chance”.
9 teams are getting in from big ten. If Wisconsin and Michigan dont get past Thursday Penn State will be in win or lose. If they win Thursday Penn State will need to win.
You saying that doesn't mean I'm wrong. You have to stop pretending I'm right ro wrong and you're right regardless of what happens. You know we're out if we don't win at least 1 game.
I don't know if that's true but the Rutgers/Michigan loser shouldn't get in. Unfortunately the winner moves ahead of us unless we also win.
I'll be rooting for Ohio State to beat Wisconsin. We'd definitely be ahead of them. Otherwise I'll be rooting for Iowa to beat Wisconsin. Maybe we could still finish ahead of them but not for sure.
Teamrankings.com gives us a 53.4% chance which is greater than our chance to beat Illinois. Obviously they don't agree with you.
Hopefully we win which makes this moot but you can play whatever game we like. We both know if I'm wrong I'll own it. No matter what happens you'll say you were right.
Yet again, it's a coin flip...I'm saying there is a good chance that we're in, and a good chance that we're out. How do I "own that"?
I guess we'd be able to tell by the NIT seeds...if we're not a #1 seed in the NIT, then it's clear that we didn't have any real chance of dancing.
You're arguing that there is zero percent chance that the coin could land on heads...and if it lands on heads, act like you were correct. I mean, how could you be in a position where you'd have to "own" being wrong about something when you're stating there is a zero percent chance of it happening? You really need to reevaluate what "zero percent" and "no chance" actually mean.
bac2therac on the Rutgers Rivals site does a really good job of his Bracketology. He's got us as the 2nd to the last team in today, and here is his write-up...
- (56) PENN STATE 19-12: Playing for their tourney lives, the Lions hit a shot at the buzzer to knock off Maryland completing a wonderful week for them which saw them add 2 Q1 wins to the resume. That is good enough to vault them into the field for now. Their metrics now manageable at 5-6/9-11 in Q1 and Q1/2. 6 wins vs teams in the field: 2x Illinois, Maryland, at NW, Indiana, Iowa. The Nittiny Lions have quietly and calmly built themselves a tourney resume. How safe are they? Well not very. The Big 10 bubble situation is an issue. PSU did go 0-4 vs Rutgers and Wisconsin and while they are not paired individually its likely that they are going to be paired in a similar grouping. Rutgers and Wisconsin each have a high end win that eclipses Penn State's best. Plus another Big 10 bubble Michigan who PSU split with is floating around. The non conference schedule is a negative but the positive is they still haven't take a bad loss even with Wisconsin counting as Q3. Will face Illinois for a third time in their opening Big 10 tourney game. Win and they are in and likely out of Dayton. Lose and they are going to be staining their panties in State College as they await their name to be called on Selection Sunday.
The site has been much nicer since I put that guy on ignore. I'm not sure how you have the patience to continue to respond to him. I have no idea what he's typing but I can guarantee it is anti-PSU in some way and not based in reality.
Well aware what they mean...without another win we're out. You're doing this whole "coin flip" thing so you don't have to take a stance. It's not a 50/50 thing at this point as you know. You follow CBB closely as your posts indicate. You know trends and numbers. You know if someone, any team not just us, is on that last line if they don't win another game they're screwed. It would take divine intervention to get in with first round loss. Not happening and, the frustrating part, is you know that but continually call me our over nothing. If we lose and make it then call me our. This you pretending you've already somehow been proven right is just pathetic
Teams get bids, not conferences. Other Big Ten teams impact us no more or less than any other bubble team.
Lunardi’s updated bracket not only has us in…it has us avoiding Dayton…Last team in after the Maryland win
If anyone thinks we don't need another win to get in they're wrong.
Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State
Most years thewww.espn.com
The problem is Michigan plays Rutgers who is reeling, and Rutgers probably moves ahead of PSU if they win and we lose.
He’s got Rutgers ahead of us currently (as do many). Michigan wins that game and loses to Purdue, and they likely stay behind us in the pecking order. Michigan would be 18–15 and historically, 3 games over .500 isn’t a great place to be.
yea the last team in projection that everyone is quoting was written yesterday before the Md game. we are now the 4th or 5th from last depending which source
Teamrankings.com has us ahead of Rutgers with only a 23% chance of getting in. Same with Michigan.
I think the winner moves ahead of us if we lose. I understand only 18 wins for Michigan. Then add their 3-10 vs quad 1. But somehow they're still in the hunt.
I'd certainly feel more comfortable about PSU's chances with a win or two in the B1G tournament. I'd be shocked if they get in without a win, as there are usually a few "stolen bids" and upsets by teams that are currently out. On the plus side, the team is playing well at the right time and has teams they have beaten - and thus know they can beat - in their immediate tournament path.
From bac2therac when discussing us…
Agree..they can sustain a loss and stll be at least 50/50 to still make it. Thats not true with Rutgers
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Agree..they can sustain a loss and stll be at least 50/50 to still make it. Thats not true with Rutgers
BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***
Week 4 of Bacatology. We are less than week from Selection Sunday. It has been a fun ride. Just when you think you know what is coming, you are thrown a curveball. Expect more of the unexpected to come this week. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
Like how it didn't make sense for players to participate in a meaningless glorified scrimmage in Pasadena?
With Hofstra losing tonight, I’m almost rooting for Charleston tonight at this point. I don’t think they get a bid with a loss either way, but it becomes really simple if they win the CAA tomorrow night.
We picked up another win over the field with Furman winning the Southern Conference…nothing earth shattering, but every little bit helps if we lose on Thursday.
I never said that--I said players entering the draft shouldn't. For the players returning they should. The game just doesn't mean anything. Once the regular season ends there's currently 3 meaningful game. Thankfully that increases soon.
Yep I have him on ignore also. He rears his ugly head where he sees a lot of chatter and tries to piss all over any optimistic take about PSU.. For example, if it was football he says no games matter except the playoff games to dig at PSU. If we were debating if PSU could make the playoff then he would try like hell to build a case as to why PSU should not make the playoff. His MO is to discourage real PSU fans and distort facts. Pretty sure he is a big scUM fan.
Erial. you gotta put this clown on ignore. I think most of the board has him on ignore. Do not engage in any discussion with him or hell maybe it is a her.
Oral Roberts moved on to the Summit championship and Charleston moved on to the Colonial Championship. Both of them in similar positions in that they're probably headed to the NIT with a loss, but there is a chance the committee would see things differently than most others. Hopefully it stays simple and they both win.
Hoping Gonzaga also keeps it simple in this game coming up and doesn't make us sweat the WCC title game tomorrow night.
Hoping Gonzaga also keeps it simple in this game coming up and doesn't make us sweat the WCC title game tomorrow night.
Solid day for us on Monday...Furman won the SoCon to give us a win over the field, Oral made the finals of the Summit, and Charleston made the SoCon final (and its against a much easier opponent than Hofstra). And Gonzaga/Saint Mary's both won in the WCC to prevent any potential bid stealers in that one. A pretty slow Tuesday, but it's the last day we'll be saying that...
Tuesday, 3/6
Tuesday, 3/6
- 7:00pm - Charleston (76%) vs UNC-Wilmington - CAA Championship game. Charleston is still probably less than 50% in getting an at-large bid if they lose, but it's an interesting case...they'd be 30-4, and no team has ever been left out with that many wins. Rather avoid having to find out if they make the cut on Sunday.
- 9:00pm - Oral Roberts (83%) vs North Dakota St - Summit Championship game. Oral is in a similar position as Charleston. They are likely heading to the NIT with a loss, but they'd be 29-5 and their 4 losses to date have all been very respectable (Houston, St Mary's, Utah St, and New Mexico, all on the road). Could they survive a 5th loss in the Summit title game to NDSU? Hoping that Oral gets the win and we don't find out.
Charleston pulled it out in a tough one…glad we won’t need to find out how impressed the committee would be by that gaudy win total.
Oral out to a great start, up 17 at the second media timeout.
Oral out to a great start, up 17 at the second media timeout.
You're saying we needed Charleston to win so that conference can't get 2 teams in?
Same with Oral?
There is going to be an unhappy 5 or 6 seed on Sunday that draws Oral Roberts…they are playing really well and will be a tough out (then again, the whole world will be picking them as the trendy 11/12 seed).
23* of the 32 conferences have no realistic chance of a "bid stealer" (for purposes of this, I consider a bid stealer to be a team that would almost certainly miss the NCAA tourney unless they win their conference tournament...teams that could play their way in like Michigan, North Carolina, etc aren't part of this analysis). I put the (*) because I guess that VCU losing in the A10 Championship game might give them some extremely remote chance of getting a bid, but it's very unlikely...the other 22 are almost certainly safe. With the remaining 9 conferences, here are KenPom's odds of us seeing a bid stolen...
- American - ??? (Anyone other than Houston or Memphis) - Ken hasn't released this one's projections yet. Bart has it at 17.8% of one of those two losing, with the biggest challenger being Cincinnati at 7.3%.
- ACC - 6.3% (Anyone other than Miami, Virginia, Clemson, Duke, Pitt, NC St, North Carolina) - Biggest risks seem to be Wake Forest and Virginia Tech...some might argue that Virginia Tech might even have a chance with a loss in the Title game, but they should still be on the outside looking in.
- Big 12 - 2.8% (Only if Texas Tech or Oklahoma wins it) - those are the only two that need to win this tourney to get in, and Texas Tech is a bit in peril. Still, I'm rooting for both of those two to win their first game, and then get knocked out.
- Big East - 6.3% (Anyone other than Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, UConn, or Providence) - this doesn't include Villanova or Seton Hall, as they both need to win it to have a realistic chance in my mind. Nova at 2.8%, Seton Hall at 2.5%, and no one else over 1%.
- Big Ten - 1.6% (Only Nebraska, Ohio St, and Minnesota) - Ohio St makes up 1.1% of it.
- Conference USA - 58.4% (Only Florida Atlantic) - you could make an argument that North Texas might be ok with a loss to FAU in the title game, but it seems like a pretty big longshot. This is obviously the big one that everyone will be sweating, as Florida Atlantic is making the field either way. North Texas is at 24.5%, UAB at 22.6% (luckily they would meet in the semi), and no one else above 5%. Go FAU!!!
- Mountain West - 8.4% (Anyone other than San Diego St, Boise St, Utah St, Nevada, and New Mexico) - Could argue that New Mexico doesn't belong here since they still might not get in with a loss in the title game (their odds of winning it are 6.9%). Otherwise, most of this 8.4% is made up of UNLV/San Jose St making a big run.
- PAC 12 - 8.9% (Anyone other than UCLA, Arizona, USC, Oregon, or Arizona St) - Washington St, Colorado, and Utah all have between a 2 and 4% chance.
- SEC - 1% (Anyone other than Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Vandy, Auburn, Miss St, or Arkansas) - Keeping Vandy in here since I see a pretty strong case should they lose in the title game (or even the semi possibly). Only team we need to realistically sweat is Myreon Jones and Florida at 1%. The other 4 are all less than .1%.
Tuesday couldn't have gone better for us, as both Charleston and Oral Roberts cemented their conferences as one bid leagues. Now, things really kick into gear...reminder that the team listed first is the team we want to win (with their Pomeroy chance of winning in parenthesis)...
Wednesday, 3/8
Wednesday, 3/8
- 2:30pm - Georgia Tech (23%) vs Pittsburgh - Pitt is handing around the bottom of the Last 4 In/top of First Four Out. A loss to Georgia Tech would definitely do some serious damage to their chances, and put them right on the cut line.
- 6:30pm - Ohio St (52%) vs Wisconsin - Another loss for Wisconsin would likely be fatal for their NCAA chances, and almost certainly keep us above them (we might even stay above them if their loss was tomorrow). Ohio St is currently a 2 point favorite, so this one is very doable.
- 7:00pm - Texas Tech (36%) vs West Virginia - It could be argued that we're actually rooting for WVU here, and they may have already cemented the bid which means we don't want Texas Tech to steal one. However, WVU isn't an absolute lock with a loss and 18-14, so I'll root for Tech, though this is likely a low impact game.
- 7:00pm - Wyoming (21%) vs New Mexico - This is another borderline one...New Mexico might need to win this tourney to get in, but the winner will be playing Utah St in the quarter and I would rather see Utah St pick up a win (if they win tomorrow) over the lesser team while avoiding a New Mexico run to the title game that gets them back on the bubble.
- 7:00pm - Boston College (19%) vs North Carolina - UNC likely needs to both win tonight and pick up another one over Virginia tomorrow to have any confidence in their chances. A loss to BC tonight ends it for them.
- 7:30pm - Lafayette (14%) at Colgate - Patriot League Championship Game - We beat Lafayette in a forgettable game on Black Friday, but having them spring the big upset tonight would give us another win over the field.
- 9:30pm - Oklahoma (47%) vs Oklahoma St - Oklahoma St is right there on the cut line, so this one is a pretty massive game. We don't want Oklahoma winning the entire tournament and stealing a bid, but we'll hope for a win today and then a loss tomorrow/Friday/Saturday.
- 9:30pm - Virginia Tech (43%) vs North Carolina St - NC State has slipped into a lot of Last 4 In lists. A loss to Virginia Tech and they'll really be sweating it on Sunday. A win tonight, and they should feel relatively safe.
- 11:30pm - Oregon State (17%) vs Arizona St - Arizona State would likely need to win both tonight and tomorrow night against USC to get on the right side of the bubble. Hoping Oregon St can cap off a good day for us so that we don't have anything to sweat with the Sun Devils tomorrow.
We are the last team of the last 4 byes so the 5th team out according to Lunardi. Last 4 in are Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers, Nevada (Nevada being the last team in and Mississippi State being at the top of that group). All sitting right behind us. Would be great if all four lost to give us breathing room.
Nevada as the 4 seed plays San Jose St., the 5 seed tomorrow in the Big West conference tournament. That game should be close. Utah State as the #3 seed plays the winner of New Mexico #6 and Wyoming #11. Utah State probably wins that one.
In the BTT, Rutgers needs to lose to Michigan. Speaking of Michigan, they are in the next 4 out so I think they will fall short even with beating Rutgers as long as they lose to Purdue in the quarters. In the SEC, Mississippi State #9 plays Florida #8 tomorrow. Need the Gators to take that one. Toss up.
I think we are in pretty good shape even if we lose. The committee places a priority on regular season wins versus conference tournament wins. Wisky is in the first four out so a loss tonight is the death knell for them and huge for us because we have two losses to them. Getting them out of the picture clears our path even more.
In the end for PSU it is JUST WIN BABY! We beat the Illiini and we avoid the Dayton play in game.
Ohio State doing Bubble teams a huge favor right now...
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