I put the P5 conferences, ND and UCF on a PPT slide.
Then I thought about conference winners and losers:
1. Obviously, the Big 12 will fission and evaporate.
2. SEC is a big winner with OK and TX coming in. I don't see them taking anyone else. I have no idea if there are any possible defections from the SEC, but I haven't heard of any.
3. ACC is probably also a big winner with maybe ND, PSU and/or WVU coming in. Even if ND doesn't come in, would the ACC take MD and PSU? An outside possibility of an addition would be UCF if they whiff on PSU and ND in order to get to 16.
4. PAC-12 will probably take some of the Big 12 orphans (TCU, TT, Baylor, KS, KSU, OK St). They could add four teams and get up to 16. They could possibly form an East and West (or a coastal and mountain) division with the CA/OR/WA teams in the west (coastal) and Col/UT/AZ/ASU/and four Big 12 orphans in the East (mountain). Would Nebraska be interested in being part of a PAC-16 mountain/East division? This would give them more access to the SOCAL recruiting areas. This could really work out for the PAC-12.
5. That leaves the BIG. Right now they have to be very concerned about PSU leaving and ND affiliating full time with the ACC. Which Big 12 orphan brings in the viewers that they could potentially lose if MD and PSU jump? KS basketball and that's probably not even close to what they'd lose in TV markets if PSU's and MD's fans take much of PA/NJ/DMV out of the TV equation. Would the BIG take WVU? Probably if PSU and/or NEB or MD left. Frankly, I don't see the elitists in the BIG taking KS, OK ST, or WVU.
I hear all the arguments about PSU not going anywhere, we'd lose too much money, the research consortium is key, etc, etc. But if there's one thing I know, if there's enough incentive, contracts can be broken, bought out, nullified, insured against, etc, etc. TV money will be a big part of this.
Consider this: Four schools have joined the BIG since the 1950's - and none of them are very happy with the treatment they've received from the BIG.
There will be some Big 12 orphans that don't get adopted. Probably KSU and ISU. They'll be heading to Conference USA or the Mountain West.
So the way I see it:
1. SEC is the big winner hands down.
2. ACC has the potential to be another big winner
3. PAC-12 also could make out very well.
4. I don't see the BIG being a big winner in all this. In fact, the BIG might be a big loser if they don't play their cards right.
Comments??
Then I thought about conference winners and losers:
1. Obviously, the Big 12 will fission and evaporate.
2. SEC is a big winner with OK and TX coming in. I don't see them taking anyone else. I have no idea if there are any possible defections from the SEC, but I haven't heard of any.
3. ACC is probably also a big winner with maybe ND, PSU and/or WVU coming in. Even if ND doesn't come in, would the ACC take MD and PSU? An outside possibility of an addition would be UCF if they whiff on PSU and ND in order to get to 16.
4. PAC-12 will probably take some of the Big 12 orphans (TCU, TT, Baylor, KS, KSU, OK St). They could add four teams and get up to 16. They could possibly form an East and West (or a coastal and mountain) division with the CA/OR/WA teams in the west (coastal) and Col/UT/AZ/ASU/and four Big 12 orphans in the East (mountain). Would Nebraska be interested in being part of a PAC-16 mountain/East division? This would give them more access to the SOCAL recruiting areas. This could really work out for the PAC-12.
5. That leaves the BIG. Right now they have to be very concerned about PSU leaving and ND affiliating full time with the ACC. Which Big 12 orphan brings in the viewers that they could potentially lose if MD and PSU jump? KS basketball and that's probably not even close to what they'd lose in TV markets if PSU's and MD's fans take much of PA/NJ/DMV out of the TV equation. Would the BIG take WVU? Probably if PSU and/or NEB or MD left. Frankly, I don't see the elitists in the BIG taking KS, OK ST, or WVU.
I hear all the arguments about PSU not going anywhere, we'd lose too much money, the research consortium is key, etc, etc. But if there's one thing I know, if there's enough incentive, contracts can be broken, bought out, nullified, insured against, etc, etc. TV money will be a big part of this.
Consider this: Four schools have joined the BIG since the 1950's - and none of them are very happy with the treatment they've received from the BIG.
There will be some Big 12 orphans that don't get adopted. Probably KSU and ISU. They'll be heading to Conference USA or the Mountain West.
So the way I see it:
1. SEC is the big winner hands down.
2. ACC has the potential to be another big winner
3. PAC-12 also could make out very well.
4. I don't see the BIG being a big winner in all this. In fact, the BIG might be a big loser if they don't play their cards right.
Comments??
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